Amazon HQ2 bid

[bnk]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

It'll be interesting to see what places they're considering.

Your answer is in the last three posts in this link as of 6pm.

Many possible choices.

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=225033&page=97

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by smArTaLlone

https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--pol...2gFcP/amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

“My guess is 15 council members will have 15 different definitions of what is too much,”

Does Atlanta really have 15 council members?

That's a lot for a city its size...

[daharris80]

Originally Posted by bnk

Your answer is in the last three posts in this link as of 6pm.

Many possible choices.

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=225033&page=97

Worth remembering

[908kiddo]

As a former native of D.C., I think the notion that D.C. attracts a lot of people (particularly millenials) is an illusion. Never heard of many people particularly "rushing" to get to DC. Let's not even talk about the COL that doesn't necessarily add up to the value of the city.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by 908kiddo

As a former native of D.C., I think the notion that D.C. attracts a lot of people (particularly millenials) is an illusion. Never heard of many people particularly "rushing" to get to DC. Let's not even talk about the COL that doesn't necessarily add up to the value of the city.

According to the below link, D.C. proper at least continues to see decent net migration of people in the 25 to 44 cohort (basically, folks in their prime working years).

https://districtmeasured.com/2018/03/26/...o-dc-was-greater-than-that-of-31-states/

That said, the below link also suggests that suburban D.C. is seeing quite a bit of outward migration...

https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publicati...-remains-stable-but-plummets-for-region/

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by bnk

Your answer is in the last three posts in this link as of 6pm.

Many possible choices.

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=225033&page=97

The USDA is not like the SEC of commodity trading. So I am not sure I see why Chicago would be a top contender over any other city.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

I just caught wind of the below article.

It's merely a rumor that could be completely unrelated to HQ2, but it still makes you go "hmmm..."

https://patch.com/virginia/arlington-va/...mail&utm_term=weather&utm_campaign=alert

S-17, I thought you were smarter than this. JBG Smith's market cap yesterday was $5.1 Billion. If any company was thinking about buying a publicly traded company, they would need to offer at least 30% over current market cap - so $1.5 Billion. Net, net - Bezos would have to spend at least $6.6 Billion to buy JBG Smith.

In what world would it make sense for Bezos to spend $6.6 Billion to buy a DC Real Estate Developer, when Amazon is only intending to spend $5 Billion developing their HQ2 over 10 years? Most importantly, I don't believe Bezos could purchase JBG Smith prior to making to Amazon making the HQ2 announcement because it would violate insider trading rules. Therefore, Bezos would have to spend way more than the $6.6 Billion I stated above.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/jbgs/

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by Street Advocate

If it went high enough up the courts, IMO it could set a great precedent to not bilk government bodies of taxes and could encourage more cities/regions/states to actually leverage taxes on the constituents rather than on adding to profits of corporate entities. Competing for corporations in general is bad for constituents, despite increased job opportunities that may come for it. If you were not allowed to incentive the corporations, governments would use taxes on thing such as *gasp* transportation improvements, education, arts, and assistance programs.

Private citizens can also sue on behalf of their jurisdictions if Amazon diverted taxpayer resources which are taxpayer subsidized man hours towards a project which did not exist or which they could not win. The Air Force learned this same lesson the hard way when it posted jobs which never existed.

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

In a lot of ways, Atlanta does have the same type of quirkiness that attracted Bezos to Seattle.

There was an article discussing that much months ago.

That said, not sure if that matters to Amazon now, or if they'll pick up on those quirky similarities.

ATL is a great city, and getting better and more educated every year. Last year, I had ATL with a 51% chance of winning HQ2. However, GA is a red state, and after Delta was punished by GA state lawmakers for opposing the NRA, I realized Bezos probably would be leery about ATL. If the decision was made after the November elections, and if GA voted blue statewide, that would strongly help the ATL bid. Right now I have NOVA at 45%, ATL at 40%, and Raleigh with 15%.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by smArTaLlone

https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--pol...2gFcP/amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

Let's cut the shit - in what world would an out of state developer plan a $1 Billion, $3.5 Billion or $5 Billion development in Downtown Atlanta in 2018 without Amazon HQ2? Furthermore if CIM Group is planning a Gulch development without HQ2, I can damn sure assure you they would have already put a halt to the GWCCA's plan for a 1000+ room convention hotel. Downtown does not need two 1000+ room hotels without HQ2.

Yesterday's announcement has everything to do about HQ2.

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

I just caught wind of the below article.

It's merely a rumor that could be completely unrelated to HQ2, but it still makes you go "hmmm..."

https://patch.com/virginia/arlington-va/...mail&utm_term=weather&utm_campaign=alert

Many rumors are put out by Amazon, by local governments, and by private corporations. AMZN may desire to acquire JBL, but to do so before cite selection? No, never. This is a game of intrigue only to keep us guessing, build the hype, and benefit numerous interests. Amazon likely will place a fulfillment center in one or more of the losing areas, and its HQ will be in ATL, NOVA, or NC. Bank on that.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

Let's cut the shit - in what world would an out of state developer plan a $1 Billion, $3.5 Billion or $5 Billion development in Downtown Atlanta in 2018 without Amazon HQ2? Furthermore if CIM Group is planning a Gulch development without HQ2, I can damn sure assure you they would have already put a halt to the GWCCA's plan for a 1000+ room convention hotel. Downtown does not need two 1000+ room hotels without HQ2.

Yesterday's announcement has everything to do about HQ2.

If Amazon doesn't happen though, I have no doubt that the plans for the Gulch will be scaled back significantly and take longer to complete

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

ATL is a great city, and getting better and more educated every year. Last year, I had ATL with a 51% chance of winning HQ2. However, GA is a red state, and after Delta was punished by GA state lawmakers for opposing the NRA, I realized Bezos probably would be leery about ATL. If the decision was made after the November elections, and if GA voted blue statewide, that would strongly help the ATL bid. Right now I have NOVA at 45%, ATL at 40%, and Raleigh with 15%.

Do you remember when Delta was punished by the State of GA for opposing the NRA? Do you also remember how a number of retailers changed their gun selling policies and spoke out against the NRA? If not - let me fresh you, AMAZON was not one of them (see links below). The bottom line is 40%+ of Amazon's US customers are living in a Red State and/or consider themselves conservative. Do you really believe they would risk aligning their CEO, HQ or HQ2 with a political party and risk polarizing a huge segment of their customer base?

https://www.businessinsider.com/retailer...-after-gun-control-protests-2018-3#rei-5

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ruggle-to-sit-out-nra-gun-control-debate

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

If Amazon doesn't happen though, I have no doubt that the plans for the Gulch will be scaled down significantly and take longer to complete

S-17,

Think to yourself all the shit that is happening behind the scenes to justify the CoA's Press Release yesterday. I would have to believe Amazon reached out to the State of GA/CoA and said Atlanta is a finalist or is selected for HQ2 to justify the city and state to mobilize all of the people and groups needed to get the financial guarantees in place for the Gulch plan to happen. I can guarantee you this effort is not for just a CIM Group led Entertainment District.

Ask yourself - If the Gulch development is being planned to happen without HQ2, why in the world would the CoA come out with this information now? Why risk the public backlash for corporate entitlements? The answer is - THEY WOULD NOT.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

S-17, I thought you were smarter than this. JBG Smith's market cap yesterday was $5.1 Billion. If any company was thinking about buying a publicly traded company, they would need to offer at least 30% over current market cap - so $1.5 Billion. Net, net - Bezos would have to spend at least $6.6 Billion to buy JBG Smith.

In what world would it make sense for Bezos to spend $6.6 Billion to buy a DC Real Estate Developer, when Amazon is only intending to spend $5 Billion developing their HQ2 over 10 years? Most importantly, I don't believe Bezos could purchase JBG Smith prior to making to Amazon making the HQ2 announcement because it would violate insider trading rules. Therefore, Bezos would have to spend way more than the $6.6 Billion I stated above.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/jbgs/

Hey now, I did say it was merely a rumor.

I really have no opinion one way or another about it (other than thinking the timing of these rumors coming out is interesting). Just trying to generate some discussion until Amazon breaks their radio silence, as it's pretty quiet around here from a development stand point.

But to address your hypotheticals, while Amazon may only plan to spend $5 billion on HQ2, they may have other projects in the works too and they want to land bank for them (if not including HQ2). It's a company with a close to $1 trillion market cap, so I'm sure they can walk and chew gum at the same time (for example, United Technologies is investing 3 times as much in half the time frame as Amazon plans for HQ2).

And yes, hypothetically speaking, I'm sure any such acquisition wouldn't take place until after the HQ2 search is complete.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

S-17,

Think to yourself all the shit that is happening behind the scenes to justify the CoA's Press Release yesterday. I would have to believe Amazon reached out to the State of GA/CoA and said Atlanta is a finalist or is selected for HQ2 to justify the city and state to mobilize all of the people and groups needed to get the financial guarantees in place for the Gulch plan to happen. I can guarantee you this effort is not for just a CIM Group led Entertainment District.

Ask yourself - If the Gulch development is being planned to happen without HQ2, why in the world would the CoA come out with this information now? Why risk the public backlash for corporate entitlements? The answer is - THEY WOULD NOT.

In all fairness, playing the devil's advocate, this project has been in the works since long before Amazon came along (although true, everything has suddenly been kicked into high gear with the HQ2 search).

That said, the city handing out a ton of incentives for what could end up being a boondoggle is nothing new. Just look at how much the city gave for MBS. And it has since blown over in the eyes of the general public too.

[wonshirim]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

S-17,

Think to yourself all the shit that is happening behind the scenes to justify the CoA's Press Release yesterday. I would have to believe Amazon reached out to the State of GA/CoA and said Atlanta is a finalist or is selected for HQ2 to justify the city and state to mobilize all of the people and groups needed to get the financial guarantees in place for the Gulch plan to happen. I can guarantee you this effort is not for just a CIM Group led Entertainment District.

Ask yourself - If the Gulch development is being planned to happen without HQ2, why in the world would the CoA come out with this information now? Why risk the public backlash for corporate entitlements? The answer is - THEY WOULD NOT.

ATL3000, any news on the CoStar reporter you were talking about? I've been waiting for him to break your story. Is he still working on the story?

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by wonshirim

ATL3000, any news on the CoStar reporter you were talking about? I've been waiting for him to break your story. Is he still working on the story?

He has gone silent. So I am not sure if they can not confirm and/or not report.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

In all fairness, playing the devil's advocate, this project has been in the works since long before Amazon came along (although true, everything has suddenly been kicked into high gear with the HQ2 search).

That said, the city handing out a ton of incentives for what could end up being a boondoggle is nothing new. Just look at how much the city gave for MBS. And it has since blown over in the eyes of the general public too.

S-17, the State of GA and CoA were approached as early as Q1 of 2016 concerning a major corporate HQ economic development project . Did the state and city know it was Amazon, probably not. I did hear this "major corporate HQ project" is what fueled the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) to develop plans for "The Stitch".

[wonshirim]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

He has gone silent. So I am not sure if they can not confirm and/or not report.

Hmm.. that's odd. I've given a couple of tips and leads to reporters myself and rarely have they severed touch with me (even when they have concluded my tips weren't that newsworthy).

What do you suspect is happening? Since I am not familiar with CoStar, I clearly don't know how they operate. Do you think they're onto something? Or are they still investigating your story? Can you open up your findings here?