Queen's Park Politics

[Bcasey25raptor]

Ok wait hold on, these polls are all over the place, some shoing nearly a 10 point lead for the NDP, others showing ties. I have like no idea anymore which pollsters to trust and which to discard. I know Forum is trash but can I trust Pollara?

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-mac...lection-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

[Docere]

Well I just got polled by Forum.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Ok wait hold on, these polls are all over the place, some shoing nearly a 10 point lead for the NDP, others showing ties. I have like no idea anymore which pollsters to trust and which to discard. I know Forum is trash but can I trust Pollara?

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-mac...lection-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

We don't know because Pollara is new. I don't think I've seen them in the field before now.

Mainstreet has a pretty good track record in Ontario. EKOS has a longstanding tendency to exaggerate Green party support, but otherwise tend to do good as well.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Ok wait hold on, these polls are all over the place, some shoing nearly a 10 point lead for the NDP, others showing ties. I have like no idea anymore which pollsters to trust and which to discard. I know Forum is trash but can I trust Pollara?

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-mac...lection-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

Polls showed Hillary would win.

Polls showed Harper would have another majority government.

I will not trust any polls except the one that the people make on Election Day.

[ainvan]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

NDP appear to have — the bed, seems ford will win after all.

So much for Canada being more enlightened then the US.

Haha, don't be too smug to Americans.

We're next as an object of ridicule when Doug Ford becomes Prime Minister of Canada in 2024, thanks to Ontarians

[1overcosc]

My gut feeling is that we'll end up with the NDP winning the popular vote by 3-4 points, but with a PC minority, something like:
-PC 60
-NDP 55
-Liberal 8
-Green 1 (apparently the feeling on the ground in Guelph is that Schreiner actually has a real chance there)

The NDP will then pursue a confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals, using their popular vote win to justify it.

[CoffeeBreak]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Ok wait hold on, these polls are all over the place, some shoing nearly a 10 point lead for the NDP, others showing ties. I have like no idea anymore which pollsters to trust and which to discard. I know Forum is trash but can I trust Pollara?

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-mac...lection-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

I don't know about the polls, but my local riding appears to be awash in NDP signs.

The local Liberal candidate recently left an 8-page brochure in the mailbox.
Interestingly, not a single picture of Kathleen Wynne was included in this brochure... lots of other pictures, though!
It's quite apparent that even sitting Liberals MPPs don't want the taint of being associated with KW.

I have to laugh at all the Liberals who blithely assume that the ABF (anyone but Ford) vote would automatically result with NDP support cratering in favour of KW's Liberals. Liberals, especially those in Ontario, tend to be rather pompous and arrogant, especially with their assumption that they have a natural right to govern, but it will be interesting to see if they can also be a pragmatic bunch at the ballot box. Somehow, I doubt it... but at this point, a vote for the Liberals would appear to be a wasted vote that ironically could end up helping Doug Ford.

The next 10 days should be interesting.

[1overcosc]

A lot of NDP partisans are relishing in telling Liberals "you have to vote NDP to stop Ford; a vote for Wynne is a vote for Ford!" after having Liberal partisans say the reverse for years.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

A lot of NDP partisans are relishing in telling Liberals "you have to vote NDP to stop Ford; a vote for Wynne is a vote for Ford!" after having Liberal partisans say the reverse for years.

Yup. Some hyper partisan NDPers used to see strategic voting as a "Liberal plot." Not this time!

[SteelTown]

One thing that stood out to me in the last few days is learning that Millennials are now the biggest voting block in Ontario, whoa!

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

One thing that stood out to me in the last few days is learning that Millennials are now the biggest voting block in Ontario, whoa!

The big question is whether they will vote. I’d say the majority of my millennial coworkers don’t care about politics at all, and I know one who plans to decline his ballot.

[Mister F]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Polls showed Harper would have another majority government.

They didn't actually. In the months leading up the the election polls showed varying levels of support for all three major national parties. But they clearly showed the Liberals permanently overtaking the Conservatives about two weeks before the election. So basically the same as what the Ontario NDP are doing now. It seems that in both cases, the momentum of one left of centre party came at the expense of the other one.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

A lot of NDP partisans are relishing in telling Liberals "you have to vote NDP to stop Ford; a vote for Wynne is a vote for Ford!" after having Liberal partisans say the reverse for years.

I traditionally vote Liberal but with the Liberals veering so far left these days that they're barely any different from the NDP. So I might as well vote for the party that stands a chance at beating Ford. I have a feeling a lot of voters are thinking the same way.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Hastings-Lennox and Addington? I feel like that one only even comes into play if the NDP are doing REALLY well (like 70+ seats level well). Will be interesting to see those numbers. If its anything other than a solid PC lead, Ford is in trouble.

The PCs are well over 50%, NDP has no chance there.

[MolsonExport]

Ford is a completely incompetent bozo without a shred of a plan.

Folks, folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,folks, folks,

[Loco101]

In most elections in Ontario, the polls usually show the trends and you can usually tell who will really gain during the last two weeks of the campaign. This time it is obviously the NDP. Last time it is was the Liberals. But there will still be a few polls leading up to election day that will say that it will be close even though it probably won't end up that way. I do think the NDP will win the popular vote by 2-8% yet the PCs still have a good chance of winning the most seats including a majority. But I see a decent chance of the NDP winning if there is a last minute surge for them from those who usually vote Liberal and want to stop Ford.

In 2014, many thought it would be very close when in fact the Liberals beat the PCs by seven percentage points. (38% to 31%) There were polls during the final week of the campaign that had the PCs slightly ahead or tied with the Liberals.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Docere

Today's Mainstreet riding polls, and they're great from the point of view of a Conservative.

In the North, former MP Greg Rickford is well ahead of the NDP in Kenora, and Ross Romano has a comfortable lead in Sault Ste. Marie.

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas has the NDP with a comfortable lead, and the Liberals a very distant third. PCs well ahead in Flamborough-Glanbrook (maybe the controversial candidate hasn't made the news yet).

I highly doubt that the PCs will win in Kenora-Rainy River or in the Sault. My guess is that the NDP will win EVERY Northern Ontario seat including Nipissing.

I'd love to see the results of the riding polls. I've seen previous polls in the North that have been quite wrong.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I highly doubt that the PCs will win in Kenora-Rainy River or in the Sault. My guess is that the NDP will win EVERY Northern Ontario seat including Nipissing.

I'd love to see the results of the riding polls. I've seen previous polls in the North that have been quite wrong.

I don't know. Vic is still pretty well liked.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I highly doubt that the PCs will win in Kenora-Rainy River or in the Sault. My guess is that the NDP will win EVERY Northern Ontario seat including Nipissing.

I'd love to see the results of the riding polls. I've seen previous polls in the North that have been quite wrong.

It doesn't shock me.

1. The PCs have polled consistently polled FAR better in the North than their 2014 vote share.

2. Personal popularity plays a big role in the North.

3. The provincial riding of Kenora is much more favorable to Rickford, as most reserves are now in the riding of Kiiwetinoong. He could very well have held his federal seats on these boundaries.

4. The Conservatives won both Sault Ste. Marie and Kenora during the last (federal) orange wave.

[Docere]

The PCs lead the NDP by 8-11 points in Kenora, Nipissing and Sault Ste. Marie ridings. NDP has double digit lead in Algoma and Sudbury ridings.

[SteelTown]

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