Queen's Park Politics

[Ontario1]

Horvath will have to collude with the Russians to pay down the debt. We won't be drinking cheap beer. We'll be drinking vodka mixed with windshield washer fluid, like the Russians do.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Ontario1

Horvath will have to collude with the Russians to pay down the debt. We won't be drinking cheap beer. We'll be drinking vodka mixed with windshield washer fluid, like the Russians do.

Sounds like you've been drinking the Kool-Aid.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Ontario1

Horvath will have to collude with the Russians to pay down the debt. We won't be drinking cheap beer. We'll be drinking vodka mixed with windshield washer fluid, like the Russians do.

We'll actually have the least amount added on to our debt with Horwath, out of the three options. Ford is squandering all of his efficiencies/cuts/whatever on a massive array of tax cuts that put us deep in the red.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

We'll actually have the least amount added on to our debt with Horwath, out of the three options.

No one can know that for sure. Look at the difference between theory and practice in the last few years federally. Can't assume promises will turn into reality.

Also, at first sight, it's pretty worrying when the NDP is what looks like the most fiscally sound alternative of all.

[manny_santos]

With regards to how fast the effects of a Ford government would be felt, I would look back to Mike Harris. A lot happened within the first year of his government, including Dudley George and the 1996 OPSEU strike. Bill 160 and the teachers strike came two years after his mandate started, and shortly after that was the mass highway downloading and forced municipal amalgamations.

[SteelTown]

^ Both Andrea Horwath and Kathleen Wynne are byproducts of Mike Harris government. Andrea got involved with the union because of Mike Harris and was the leader for Hamilton's Day of Action in 1996 (against Bill 106, is the biggest protest ever in the city, over 160,000 people). Kathleen got involved, School trustee, because of Harris cuts to Education.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by lio45

No one can know that for sure. Look at the difference between theory and practice in the last few years federally. Can't assume promises will turn into reality.

Also, at first sight, it's pretty worrying when the NDP is what looks like the most fiscally sound alternative of all.

We'd all do better if we understood that campaign "promises" are simply statements of intention. No party in Canada can or will do everything that is promised in their campaign platform, although they enter office planning to at least try. Even if circumstances remain static for a full four year term, which they never do, it just doesn't happen.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by lio45

No one can know that for sure. Look at the difference between theory and practice in the last few years federally. Can't assume promises will turn into reality.

This is true.

Originally Posted by lio45

Also, at first sight, it's pretty worrying when the NDP is what looks like the most fiscally sound alternative of all.

I know, it's one of the most bizarre things about the election. It goes to a point about this whole thing too; the NDP are surging and poised to potentially win not because they're a good choice, but because the other two are worse. Horwath is "best of the worst".

It's not just the smallest deficit part.. they're using the most cautious numbers, too.

1) They're assuming the economy will grow a fair bit slower than what most private sector economists are projecting.
2) They're assuming that all of their programs will cost a fair bit more than what the experts they consulted estimated they'd cost.
3) And there's some platform planks that will save money and/or generate revenue that they're not counting at all because they have no idea how much money could be saved/generated.
4) The economic benefits of childcare (in terms of increased workforce participation) could easily add hundreds of millions in revenue, but that's not factored into their plan. Nor would the hundreds of millions in savings in the health care system from providing the poor with access to routine dental care (many low income people with poor dental health end up in emergency rooms).

And most importantly: there's no "unspecified efficiencies" type things in the NDP platform; every piece of spending and revenue changes including efficiency items is itemized in detail with specific ideas. Whereas the PC and Liberal platforms both rely on billions in these sorts of things.

It's a cautious platform that builds in a lot of breathing room and doesn't rely on fairy dust. Even if the NDP platform technically called for a bit more of a deficit than the other two, I'd still say it was the most fiscally responsible for this reason.

[lrt's friend]

I think the voters deserve to have a full platform that is properly costed out. As it stands, it seems the PCs are operating from notes written on a serviette. How do voters hold politicians accountable without a proper platform? It seems that we are giving them carte blanche without it. That sounds dangerous to me.

[Docere]

Also, not all debt is the same - is it for long term investments or are you just blowing your money in Las Vegas. Ford's PCs offer the latter.

The question of "whose is bigger" is a secondary matter IMO.

[1overcosc]

^^ That's another thing too. IMO that essentially invalidates the PCs as a legitimate option, leaving the choices as Wynne vs. Horwath and the former is a wasted vote so.. NDP by default for me.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

And most importantly: there's no "unspecified efficiencies" type things in the NDP platform; every piece of spending and revenue changes including efficiency items is itemized in detail with specific ideas. Whereas the PC and Liberal platforms both rely on billions in these sorts of things.

Yep. Any costed PC platform coming out will just show everything ended up balanced through "efficiencies". I've worked with the Province for a number of years now, and can say that the Liberal party legitimately pushed for efficiencies / "modernization" from virtually every angle to avoid having to raise taxes in any meaningful way.

The thought of the PCs repeating this (somewhat expensive) exercise is not comforting. I mean, Rob and Doug (as he would have you believe) did it at City Hall by throwing a bunch of money at KPMG just to hear that the only meaningful efficiency was cutting services / staff.

[Proof Sheet]

Originally Posted by Docere

Some Mainstreet riding polls coming out tomorrow:

Flamborough-Glanbrook
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Markham-Unionville
Hastings-Lennox and Addington

Are any of the predictions in this website worth believing

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

If you believe the #'s, the Liberals will be decimated and where they do win seats it will be by a sizeable majority (except for Willowdale and Mississauga Centre) which doesn't really do much. If they spread out their votes more they would gain more seats. Winning a seat in northern Ontario with 78% of the votes as in Nickle Belt for the NDP also skews their %'s.

Interesting days ahead. Next Thursday night the political wonks will have a field day micro analysing all of the results.

[Docere]

I'm of mixed opinion on this "show us your numbers" stuff from parties. It gives the perception of accountability and prudence, but most of these numbers are fictions anyway. I do like seeing them in the sense for knowing where party's true priorities are (based on how spending) though.

People like Kevin Page honestly shouldn't sign off on these things.

The other thing is contrary to Fordian nonsense about the willy nilly spending by government, public sector auditing standards are far stricter than the "more efficient" private sector. Most of the "gravy" has actually been squeezed out of the system long ago.

There's a reason why none of these "stop the gravy train" politicians are ever successful. Either they make cuts that do harm people, or they balk at going through with their rhetoric.

[Docere]

Today's Mainstreet riding polls, and they're great from the point of view of a Conservative.

In the North, former MP Greg Rickford is well ahead of the NDP in Kenora, and Ross Romano has a comfortable lead in Sault Ste. Marie.

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas has the NDP with a comfortable lead, and the Liberals a very distant third. PCs well ahead in Flamborough-Glanbrook (maybe the controversial candidate hasn't made the news yet).

[MolsonExport]

The economic price of electing Doug Ford (Globe and Mail)

This economic advantage will be significantly diminished if Doug Ford becomes premier of Ontario. Comparisons are already being made between Mr. Ford and Mr. Trump, as well as between Mr. Trump and Mr. Ford’s late younger brother, Rob, the original North American populist. All three positioned themselves as advocates for the “little guy,” slashing taxes and cutting back government. Like Mr. Trump, Doug Ford has even hired actors for campaign events.

Doug Ford is potentially far more damaging than his younger brother, simply because Ontario’s premier has far more power than Toronto’s mayor. From what we have already heard and seen, Mr. Ford’s populist policies will hit hard at the pillars of the province’s economic prosperity. To mollify his base, Mr. Ford will have every incentive to undermine the “elite” institutions on which Toronto’s and the province’s success depend. In the United States, populist politicians have slashed funding for public-research universities, which sit at the heart of innovation. One can expect Mr. Ford to do the same, inflicting real pain both on great universities such as the University of Toronto, the University of Waterloo, Queen’s, Western, McMaster and on the knowledge economy for which they serve as key hubs. The province could wind up like an American Red State, which disinvests in the key pillars of its knowledge economy and undermines its own economic advantage.

Instead of a tech-enabled, cutting-edge community on the waterfront, expect a return to the days of Ferris wheels and spectacle malls. As mayor, Rob Ford hindered Toronto’s urbanization by threatening to eradicate bike lanes, build downtown casinos and eliminate light rail transit. Efforts to build a denser, less congested region will also be halted as Doug Ford rekindles the debate over the war-on-the car that sits at the core of Ford Nation’s appeal. To pay for his much-ballyhooed tax cuts, Doug Ford will likely tear apart Ontario’s vaunted social safety net, ushering in even more polarized and toxic politics and undermining the province’s image as a less divided and more enlightened place than the United States.

Mr. Ford’s divisive rhetoric – which identifies techies, knowledge workers, innovators, entrepreneurs and city-builders as self-aggrandizing “elites” who “look down on the average, common folk” and stresses that the province should “take care of its own first” before opening jobs and economic opportunity to immigrants – will send a strong signal that Ontario is no longer a welcoming place to talented and hard-working people from abroad.

[Bcasey25raptor]

NDP appear to have shit the bed, seems ford will win after all.

So much for Canada being more enlightened then the US.

[kwoldtimer]

To what would one attribute a strengthening of Conservative support/softening of NDP support in the last couple of days? Hard to understand how the leaders' debate could have had that effect.

[1overcosc]

Seems to be more poll wobbling than anything else. Today's releases show NDP gains again.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by niwell

Yep. Any costed PC platform coming out will just show everything ended up balanced through "efficiencies". I've worked with the Province for a number of years now, and can say that the Liberal party legitimately pushed for efficiencies / "modernization" from virtually every angle to avoid having to raise taxes in any meaningful way.

The thought of the PCs repeating this (somewhat expensive) exercise is not comforting. I mean, Rob and Doug (as he would have you believe) did it at City Hall by throwing a bunch of money at KPMG just to hear that the only meaningful efficiency was cutting services and staff.

My mom is a regional director in a provincial ministry and has been for a long time (she really should retire but that's a whole other issue lol); she tells me much the same. The most dramatic pushes for efficiency have come under Wynne.