Rural Commuter Rail

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

http://www.ligneconfederationline.ca/the-build/vehicle/overview/

Yup. That is the stage 1 average speed. For the reasons I stated before, the average speed will go up after stage 2.

It's great if it's higher. I like to be conservative in my estimates in my discussions here.

That’s all fine and good to be conservative, but it’s a bit disingenuous to use conservative estimates to make it appear inferior to another option. I prefer to try and find realistic estimates based on the best information available.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Between Pickering and Oshawa GO trains have an average speed of 75 kph, with two intermediate stops. I think that would be a reasonable starting point.

That's a very strange measurement. You're picking a segment of the line on the outskirts and measuring speed. This is like arguing that the Confederation Line will go fast between Bayshore and Moodie. And then extrapolating that to imply that there will be a high average speed all the way to Rideau.

I sincerely wish you wouldn't resort to such intellectual dishonesty. It's disappointing because usually you have great posts on these forums.

Pickering and Oshawa are on the Lakeshore East GO line. The average operating speed of that line is nowhere close to 75 kph. And most riders from Oshawa are not bound for Pickering, but for Union station.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

That’s all fine and good to be conservative, but it’s a bit disingenuous to use conservative estimates to make it appear inferior to another option. I prefer to try and find realistic estimates based on the best information available.

It wasn't my intention to be disingenuous. Just being cautious. Average operating speed of 45 kph would make this faster than the Yonge Line in Toronto. I had my doubts about that. But you're right, now that I look at the map, it'll be averaging 42 kph from Trim to Moodie. If their estimate of 50 mins between the endpoints is right (based on comments in the other thread).

What's relevant though is not the whole trip. But the trip to the core. People aren't routinely traveling from Kanata to Orleans. They are usually going from Kanata to the CBD or Rideau. So the question is, what's the trip time on LRT going to be from Moodie to the core. And how would that compare to any suburban rail system?

Broadly, as I've said before, there's a rather weak case for suburban rail in Ottawa. The proposals for such, mostly get hurt by the fact that there's no train station in the downtown core. Bayview and Tremblay bracket the core. And that's the best you'll get.

So if suburban rail happens, it's really just because it's cheaper to employ and we'll be doing it in lieu of more expensive LRT extensions. Of course, that also means worse service for the suburbs, since suburban rail will have worse frequencies than LRT.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

But even at 44 kph average speed, these milkrun megatrams are far too slow to draw new users, or even retain bus users.

How fast does it need to go to draw new users? And is that worthwhile at all?
There's a certain point where the marginal cost to gain new riders just becomes uneconomical.

Kanata residents will be getting a solid upgrade in speed and reliability after Stage 2. Virtually all of them will be able to reach the CBD in about 50 mins or less with just one transfer. Takes most of them over an hour today with at least one transfer.

Given the lower frequencies of any suburban or commuter rail service, and the extra transfer, how much would most riders actually save? Maybe 10 mins? 15 mins is arguably the max you could achieve and that's with lining up transfer times perfectly. How many riders will put up with an extra transfer to save so little and to deal with the added inflexibility of a line with low frequencies. We'd be lucky if we have 15 min frequencies on a suburban rail line in Ottawa. 20-30 min frequencies are more likely.

There's only one case for any sort of suburban rail: to provide some rapid transit while curtailing LRT expansion. I doubt most communities are interested in that.

And there's no case for commuter rail as you define it, in my opinion. There's no way politicians will support building rail lines to service 2-3 stops from Kanata to Tremblay.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

How fast does it need to go to draw new users? And is that worthwhile at all?
There's a certain point where the marginal cost to gain new riders just becomes uneconomical.

Kanata residents will be getting a solid upgrade in speed and reliability after Stage 2. Virtually all of them will be able to reach the CBD in about 50 mins or less with just one transfer. Takes most of them over an hour today with at least one transfer.

Given the lower frequencies of any suburban or commuter rail service, and the extra transfer, how much would most riders actually save? Maybe 10 mins? 15 mins is arguably the max you could achieve and that's with lining up transfer times perfectly. How many riders will put up with an extra transfer to save so little and to deal with the added inflexibility of a line with low frequencies. We'd be lucky if we have 15 min frequencies on a suburban rail line in Ottawa. 20-30 min frequencies are more likely.

If you want to attract more riders it has to be competive with driving. Kanata is a fairly affluent suburb and many commuters are not going to worry about the price of gas or the cost of parking (which is why its transit ridership now is much lower than the city average). The province has spent a huge amount of money widening the Queensway so a milkrun LRT won't do much.

People have learned how to figure out the timing of commuter rail services all over the world, I am not sure why Kanatans would find it so complicated.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That's a very strange measurement. You're picking a segment of the line on the outskirts and measuring speed. This is like arguing that the Confederation Line will go fast between Bayshore and Moodie. And then extrapolating that to imply that there will be a high average speed all the way to Rideau.

I sincerely wish you wouldn't resort to such intellectual dishonesty. It's disappointing because usually you have great posts on these forums.

Pickering and Oshawa are on the Lakeshore East GO line. The average operating speed of that line is nowhere close to 75 kph. And most riders from Oshawa are not bound for Pickering, but for Union station.

The service I have suggested is a suburb-to-suburb service, so it is much more analogous to the suburban sections than the route through central Toronto. If central Ottawa still had an intact rail network I would probably look for different examples.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The service I have suggested is a suburb-to-suburb service, so it is much more analogous to the suburban sections than the route through central Toronto. If central Ottawa still had an intact rail network I would probably look for different examples.

Quite the difference in comparing a service that goes through the central parts of a city (your proposal in Ottawa) and two distant points on a single line in the suburbs. If you want to make your comparison to Toronto relevant, compare two stations on either side of Union. Otherwise Pickering and Oshawa are analogous to Bayshore and Terry Fox.

Originally Posted by acottawa

People have learned how to figure out the timing of commuter rail services all over the world, I am not sure why Kanatans would find it so complicated.

I wasn't referring to the users so much as the service. GO and TTC for example, don't just lack fare integration. Their service integration sucks too. So you're often left waiting at the station.

It's conceivable to have a similar situation in Ottawa where the bus routes are terminating at LRT stations which are far less time sensitive.

Originally Posted by acottawa

If you want to attract more riders it has to be competive with driving. Kanata is a fairly affluent suburb and many commuters are not going to worry about the price of gas or the cost of parking (which is why its transit ridership now is much lower than the city average). The province has spent a huge amount of money widening the Queensway so a milkrun LRT won't do much.

Again. You're not going to get every rider on transit. I question the value of investing to attract the kind of riders you are describing here. I would bet there are far less marginal cases that we can target in Ottawa.

At that point, spend this money on BRT virtually anywhere in the city and you'll get more ridership.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

At that point, spend this money on BRT virtually anywhere in the city and you'll get more ridership.

I would agree with that. However, as I said earlier in this thread, local politics favours adding rail services to outlying suburbs. There have been 4 additions added by politicians to "phase 2" in the last 5 years (PdO, Bayshore, Trim and Moodie) before phase one is even complete. They are chomping at the bit to announce extensions to Kanata and Stittsville. In this context, in my view, adding another $2 billion extension to a milkrun LRT that has already been over-extended (in theory anyway, all of phase 2 is still just a political talking point) beyond the suitability of the technology and the design of the route makes little sense.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Quite the difference in comparing a service that goes through the central parts of a city (your proposal in Ottawa) and two distant points on a single line in the suburbs. If you want to make your comparison to Toronto relevant, compare two stations on either side of Union. Otherwise Pickering and Oshawa are analogous to Bayshore and Terry Fox.

I was looking for a section of the GO network that isn't used as a milk run and doesn't have major freight conflicts. Perhaps you could explain what factors of Kanata, the Greenbelt, Nepean and the South End would make it difficult to travel at reasonable speeds. These are empty fields or postwar suburbs.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I would agree with that. However, as I said earlier in this thread, local politics favours adding rail services to outlying suburbs. There have been 4 additions added by politicians to "phase 2" in the last 5 years (PdO, Bayshore, Trim and Moodie) before phase one is even complete. They are chomping at the bit to announce extensions to Kanata and Stittsville. In this context, in my view, adding another $2 billion extension to a milkrun LRT that has already been over-extended (in theory anyway, all of phase 2 is still just a political talking point) beyond the suitability of the technology and the design of the route makes little sense.

Realistically, we're talking Stage 3 here. There's no way more extensions will come on to Stage 2.

At that point, while they've only looked at Kanata for that extension, you can bet when that plan becomes more public, Barrhaven is going to be asking what the heck is going on. As will South Keys and Riverside, when they find out that the Trillium Line upgrades aren't all that they are cracked up to be. I would bet money that the LRT will go to Fallowfield, before it goes past Terry Fox. So I wouldn't be too worried about the money being blown on LRT to Hazeldean quite yet.

As long as Kanata and Stittsville are in one riding, there's far less payoff in going to Hazeldean in Stage 3. Better to go to Terry Fox in the West and Fallowfield in the Southwest. Helps two MPs and MPPs.

Originally Posted by acottawa

I was looking for a section of the GO network that isn't used as a milk run and doesn't have major freight conflicts. Perhaps you could explain what factors of Kanata, the Greenbelt, Nepean and the South End would make it difficult to travel at reasonable speeds. These are empty fields or postwar suburbs.

The biggest factor in average operating speeds is stop spacing. There's no way you'll ever get 10km stop spacing in Ottawa. And if you did that, ridership would be crap, because you'd be relying on just 2 stop for riders. So the 80 kph average is just not logical in my books.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Realistically, we're talking Stage 3 here. There's no way more extensions will come on to Stage 2.

At that point, while they've only looked at Kanata for that extension, you can bet when that plan becomes more public, Barrhaven is going to be asking what the heck is going on. As will South Keys and Riverside, when they find out that the Trillium Line upgrades aren't all that they are cracked up to be. I would bet money that the LRT will go to Fallowfield, before it goes past Terry Fox. So I wouldn't be too worried about the money being blown on LRT to Hazeldean quite yet.

The fact that it's been clearly costed that the last stretch to Hazeldean is way more expensive pretty much guarantees that it will be postponed and Moodie-Terry Fox is the only part that will move forward.

That part is inexpensive and fast. In fact, if we did go all the way to Hazeldean, there would be a considerable case for having Stittsville bus routes continue to go Terry Fox as that would be the fastest way downtown.

Also, Stittsville and Kanata are actually in separate ridings.. Kanata is in Kanata-Carleton and Stittsville is part of Carleton. However, the latter is an uncompetitive seat, so whatever.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The biggest factor in average operating speeds is stop spacing. There's no way you'll ever get 10km stop spacing in Ottawa. And if you did that, ridership would be crap, because you'd be relying on just 2 stop for riders. So the 80 kph average is just not logical in my books.

I think 10 km spacing is completely appropriate. The proposed route parallels existing rapid transit options (Western Transitway/proposed LRT, Baseline LRT, whatever they decide to do with Carling, Trillium Line and SE Transitway). There is no need to build another milk run service to duplicate existing options.

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I think 10 km spacing is completely appropriate. The proposed route parallels existing rapid transit options (Western Transitway/proposed LRT, Baseline LRT, whatever they decide to do with Carling, Trillium Line and SE Transitway). There is no need to build another milk run service to duplicate existing options.

If that were true OC Transpo would do it already. The fact they don't means 10km stop spacing is too much. I remember when the old route 99 used to spend more time on the queensway and then they switched it over to Carling to get more ridership which basically throws your idea out the window.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OtrainUser

If that were true OC Transpo would do it already. The fact they don't means 10km stop spacing is too much. I remember when the old route 99 used to spend more time on the queensway and then they switched it over to Carling to get more ridership which basically throws your idea out the window.

The fact that a transportation project doesn't exist is proof that it isn't needed?

[1overcosc]

The LRT isn't going to be a slow slog. It will get from Moodie to downtown in 22 minutes. Given the distance and stop spacing 6 minutes is a good estimate from Moodie to Terry Fox with Eagleson at roughly the halfway point in travel time (because of how fast it would be from Moodie to Eagleson), so let's say 25 minutes to Eagleson and 28 minutes to Terry Fox in a hypothetical Kanata LRT extension.

For a hypothetical commuter rail route, from March & Terry Fox, it's 26km to Tremblay.

Even if we invested enough money into the railway route to allow full 160km/h service for the entire trip (a formidable task!) and the route travelled from March & Terry Fox to Tremblay without a single stop in between, the travel time would still be about 12 minutes, considering the need for acceleration and deceleration at either end.

Then you have a 10 minute LRT ride from Tremblay to downtown, and the distance between the heavy rail platforms at Tremblay to the LRT platform is sizeable enough that you'd need to add about 2 minutes for walking time between the two (it's roughly 200 metres, platform to platform). So already, you're at 24 minutes to get from March & Terry Fox to downtown by commuter rail via Tremblay.

That's only 1 minute faster than LRT from Eagleson or 4 minutes faster than LRT from Terry Fox, even if the rail line is upgraded to the technologically maximum speed the whole way (already a big if!) and travels non-stop from Kanata North to Tremblay! When you factor in the transfer penalty at Tremblay, the convenience penalty from lower frequencies on the commuter rail line, and the fact that the commuter rail station would be much farther from most Kanata residents than the LRT stations, that time gain is basically wiped out.

There's really no sound case for a Kanata-Tremblay commuter rail line.

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The LRT isn't going to be a slow slog. It will get from Moodie to downtown in 22 minutes. Given the distance and stop spacing 6 minutes is a good estimate from Moodie to Terry Fox with Eagleson at roughly the halfway point in travel time (because of how fast it would be from Moodie to Eagleson), so let's say 25 minutes to Eagleson and 28 minutes to Terry Fox in a hypothetical Kanata LRT extension.

For a hypothetical commuter rail route, from March & Terry Fox, it's 26km to Tremblay.

Even if we invested enough money into the railway route to allow full 160km/h service for the entire trip (a formidable task!) and the route travelled from March & Terry Fox to Tremblay without a single stop in between, the travel time would still be about 12 minutes, considering the need for acceleration and deceleration at either end.

Then you have a 10 minute LRT ride from Tremblay to downtown, and the distance between the heavy rail platforms at Tremblay to the LRT platform is sizeable enough that you'd need to add about 2 minutes for walking time between the two (it's roughly 200 metres, platform to platform). So already, you're at 24 minutes to get from March & Terry Fox to downtown by commuter rail via Tremblay.

That's only 1 minute faster than LRT from Eagleson or 4 minutes faster than LRT from Terry Fox, even if the rail line is upgraded to the technologically maximum speed the whole way (already a big if!) and travels non-stop from Kanata North to Tremblay! When you factor in the transfer penalty at Tremblay, the convenience penalty from lower frequencies on the commuter rail line, and the fact that the commuter rail station would be much farther from most Kanata residents than the LRT stations, that time gain is basically wiped out.

There's really no sound case for a Kanata-Tremblay commuter rail line.

exactly

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The fact that a transportation project doesn't exist is proof that it isn't needed?

The city has already looked at that option your suggesting and they deemed it to not make any sense which is why they don't do it. If we had a downtown station that could handle commuter rail then the story changes but there is no time saved as others have said when you have to transfer at either bayview or Tremblay

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I think 10 km spacing is completely appropriate. The proposed route parallels existing rapid transit options (Western Transitway/proposed LRT, Baseline LRT, whatever they decide to do with Carling, Trillium Line and SE Transitway). There is no need to build another milk run service to duplicate existing options.

Right. And there's no evidence that there's a business case for commuter rail with 10 km spacing either.

Originally Posted by acottawa

The fact that a transportation project doesn't exist is proof that it isn't needed?

In this case? Yes. Ottawa doesn't have any rapid transit corridor with stop spacing anywhere close to what you are suggesting. 10km would take you halfway to downtown from Barrhaven. Essentially you are suggesting that Kanata and Barrhaven get special express rail service to Tremblay or Bayview.

Worth the study, I guess. But I don't see ridership numbers coming anywhere close to what the LRT would carry. Especially when you're talking only one central station in Kanata or Barrhaven. Increase in access time and backtracking for a lot of riders. Extra transfer at Bayview or Tremblay.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The LRT isn't going to be a slow slog. It will get from Moodie to downtown in 22 minutes. Given the distance and stop spacing 6 minutes is a good estimate from Moodie to Terry Fox with Eagleson at roughly the halfway point in travel time (because of how fast it would be from Moodie to Eagleson), so let's say 25 minutes to Eagleson and 28 minutes to Terry Fox in a hypothetical Kanata LRT extension.

For a hypothetical commuter rail route, from March & Terry Fox, it's 26km to Tremblay.

Even if we invested enough money into the railway route to allow full 160km/h service for the entire trip (a formidable task!) and the route travelled from March & Terry Fox to Tremblay without a single stop in between, the travel time would still be about 12 minutes, considering the need for acceleration and deceleration at either end.

Then you have a 10 minute LRT ride from Tremblay to downtown, and the distance between the heavy rail platforms at Tremblay to the LRT platform is sizeable enough that you'd need to add about 2 minutes for walking time between the two (it's roughly 200 metres, platform to platform). So already, you're at 24 minutes to get from March & Terry Fox to downtown by commuter rail via Tremblay.

That's only 1 minute faster than LRT from Eagleson or 4 minutes faster than LRT from Terry Fox, even if the rail line is upgraded to the technologically maximum speed the whole way (already a big if!) and travels non-stop from Kanata North to Tremblay! When you factor in the transfer penalty at Tremblay, the convenience penalty from lower frequencies on the commuter rail line, and the fact that the commuter rail station would be much farther from most Kanata residents than the LRT stations, that time gain is basically wiped out.

There's really no sound case for a Kanata-Tremblay commuter rail line.

This is exactly what I have been trying to say.

The math is a bit different for Barrhaven and maybe it might make more sense, but it would still be very expensive unless VIA pays for double track.

[lrt's friend]

What would make sense is a diesel O-Train service on the cross-town tracks, that would amount to a suburb to suburb service. Run a train every 15 minutes with stations (and bus transfers) at every major intersection. A bus shuttle to DND and through the Kanata North business Park and to the new RCMP HQ. All that would be needed is strategic passing tracks. Forget about the concept of expecting many downtown commuters using it. If a few use it, fine.

With a short bus or train transfer to Algonquin College and Carleton, expect this to be attractive to students as well.

This would provide a service that does not exist today, which is the way to grow overall ridership. Remember the unexpected success of the original O-Train, which related to providing a totally new service.