Quote:
Originally Posted by Utah_Dave
I was reading how uber and other related ride sharing resources have failed to decrease the amount of traffic in densely populated areas where these studies were done. I believe the study was in South Korea but I could be wrong. The article points out that people are using these ride sharing apps in favor of using mass transit. The hope was that uber would fill in the gaps of mass transit in these test cities but it appears to cause people to bypass mass transit altogether. The bright spot is these autonomous vehicles will be mostly electric vehicles. This is most important for inversion prone areas like the Wasatch front but I'm starting to wonder if mass transit will become obsolete as we know it and transform into something completely different then what we are accustomed too.
Wrong thread, I know.
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The thing is though that Uber and Lyft aren't utilizing vehicles that were designed for their purpose and they aren't yet integrated well with Transit. They are currently utilizing vehicles that were designed to serve individuals(not to mention need a driver). I doubt that will be the case 15 years from now.
I see either a company or transit agency deploying a fleet of many different types of self driving vehicles. They aren't going to have thousands of identical Prius'.
I think for the commute we will see something between a bus and a minivan that will serve to connect neighborhoods to train stations. Once you remove the sunk costs that people have invested in a(effectively) single occupant vehicle there is a large economic incentive to "carpool". Today ride sharing has neither the vehicles fit for the purpose nor the scale of ridership to make it convenient to "carpool". On the other end you may have vehicles as large as buses but these will be PRT(personal rapid Transit) rather than tied to a route. There will be vehicles that are more like the traditional car but these are more likely to be sent when someone wants to go to a restaurant nearby, run an errand, go to someone else's home, etc.
Basically I see automated vehicles being seemlessly integrated into the transit system and the system matching the vehicle sent to the number of requests.