New BC Political Discussion - POST BC Election 2017

[WarrenC12]

Boring, old guard, more of the same. Lame duck wins election full of lame ducks. Michael Lee might have been a nice change.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

Wilkinson was the guy I liked the least, seemed the most conservative. Will be interesting to see what policy changes are brought in now.

Andrew Wilkinson...Zzzzxx

Poor Dianne Watts, flipped up her seat to the Trudeau Liberals for naught. And unlike the others, she can’t really throw her hat into the ring to be the NPA mayoral candidate.

[waves]

I did some analysis on some of the voting results. See the tables below. The Alternate Vote (instant Run-off Vote) was the method used which means that each ballot allowed voters to rank their choices. With the published results each round we can get a sense for the true division between voters.

Round 1
After the first tally Dianne leads with Michael second. Sam got very few primary votes and is eliminated at this round. The other three were about equal. All in all, with exception of Sam, the vote seems to be split relatively equally between candidates at this point and there isn't a clear winner. Mike could pull through with all of Sam's voters choosing him as a second choice but Sam on the left side of the race and Mike on the right, Sam votes I predict will predominately go towards Michael over Mike.

| Round 1          	| Points 	|
|------------------	|--------	|
| Dianne Watts     	| 2135   	|
| Michael Lee      	| 1917   	|
| Andrew Wilkinson 	| 1591   	|
| Todd Stone       	| 1483   	|
| Mike de Jong     	| 1415   	|
| Sam Sullivan     	| 158    	|
| Total            	| 8699   	|

Round 2
The impact of Sam's second votes are minimal due to the lack in quantity. As predicted Mike had the smallest share of Sam's second votes and Michael had the largest thereby eliminating Mike at this round. The rest of Sam's votes are split evenly - I find this strange because Sam's platform was quite different from the others and I would have expected a more consistent second vote than observed here. As a result, there are no real changes here from Round 1 other than Mike's elimination. With Mike eliminated it is interesting to see from this point if the Andrew & Mike alliance holds strong.

| Round 2          	| Points 	| Change 	| SS  	|
|------------------	|--------	|--------	|-----	|
| Dianne Watts     	| 2169   	| 34     	| 21% 	|
| Michael Lee      	| 1960   	| 43     	| 27% 	|
| Andrew Wilkinson 	| 1631   	| 40     	| 25% 	|
| Todd Stone       	| 1505   	| 22     	| 14% 	|
| Mike de Jong     	| 1436   	| 21     	| 13% 	|
| Total            	| 8701   	| 160    	|     	|

Round 3
With Mike's elimination we see the first major shift further equalizing the point tally with no clear winner between Michael, Dianne and Andrew all within 3% of each other. A strong showing from Mike's second votes going to Andrew (40%!) bumped him up to keep him competitive. Without that bump Andrew could have been further down the list further solidifying a Dianne vs Michael fifth round. Todd is eliminated here and his voters second choice and his second choice voters third choice will play a big part in selecting who gets enough votes to get to the last round with the race so tight in the top three. Dianne will likely be secure so it'll be down to whether Todd's voters like Andrew or Michael more.

| Round 3          	| Points 	| Change 	| SS  	| MJ  	|                                	|
|------------------	|--------	|--------	|-----	|-----	|--------------------------------	|
| Dianne Watts     	| 2469   	| 300    	| 24% 	| 21% 	|                                	|
| Michael Lee      	| 2264   	| 304    	| 30% 	| 21% 	|                                	|
| Andrew Wilkinson 	| 2201   	| 570    	| 30% 	| 40% 	|                                	|
| Todd Stone       	| 1766   	| 261    	| 16% 	| 18% 	|                                	|
| Total            	| 8700   	| 1435   	|     	| 0%  	| Lost Votes (no third rank max) 	|

Round 4
Todd's voters were very evenly split between all three but gave enough of an edge to Andrew to bump him up over Michael by a minuscule 0.6%. Another werid fact at this point is that it appears a significant number of points were lost at this point which may indicate that voters didn't fill out their ballots fully (maybe ranked top three rather than ranking all five). Those lost votes could have made a big difference to closing that gap between Michael and Andrew. Michael is eliminated at this point.

| Round 4          	| Points 	| Change 	| SS  	| MJ  	| TS  	|                                 	|
|------------------	|--------	|--------	|-----	|-----	|-----	|---------------------------------	|
| Dianne Watts     	| 3006   	| 537    	| 29% 	| 26% 	| 30% 	|                                 	|
| Andrew Wilkinson 	| 2862   	| 661    	| 36% 	| 46% 	| 37% 	|                                 	|
| Michael Lee      	| 2813   	| 549    	| 35% 	| 27% 	| 31% 	|                                 	|
| Total            	| 8681   	| 1747   	|     	|     	| 1%  	| Lost Votes (no fourth rank max) 	|

Round 5
And the winner is Andrew! Although second votes from Michael are hard to discern at this point because of the inclusion of third and fourth votes it seems clear enough to say that more of Michael's voters supported Andrew over Dianne. Hard to say for sure though. The result makes me think that if Michael had won over Andrew in round 4 that we could have been looking at Michael winning rather than Andrew. A disadvantage of the voting system applied here is that Dianne's second votes never get considered. Imagine if a large majority of Dianne's second votes went to Michael. What if that would have been enough for Michael to beat out Andrew (Andrew being devoid of Michael's second votes)? I'm not commenting on the likelihood of Dianne's voters choosing Michael second, just thinking about how voters for Dianne might have been disadvantaged with the way the vote realized itself. Maybe it might have been better for Dianne's voters if she could have been eliminated in the fourth round? Unless we see more detailed stats on the vote we won't know for sure.

| Round 5          	| Points 	| Change 	| SS  	| MJ  	| TS  	| ML  	|
|------------------	|--------	|--------	|-----	|-----	|-----	|-----	|
| Dianne Watts     	| 4079   	| 1073   	| 42% 	| 37% 	| 42% 	| 38% 	|
| Andrew Wilkinson 	| 4621   	| 1759   	| 58% 	| 63% 	| 57% 	| 62% 	|
| Total            	| 8700   	| 2832   	|     	|     	|     	|     	|

[whatnext]

Martyn Brown, Gordon Campbell's former chief of staff, delivers a scathing take down of Andrew Wilkinson's victory in the Georgia Straight:

...They are all part of Wilkinson’s army in waging the grand fight to “keep the world safe for democracy” that has for so long advantaged conservative parties of every ill-liberal stripe.

The good news for them is, if the new Liberal leader honours what he said in the party’s last leadership debate, the “No” side shouldn’t need any additional monetary support from B.C. taxpayers to make its case.

After all, Wilkinson suggested that his party should devote every penny of its nearly $2 million dollars in public campaign subsidies this year to fighting PR <proportional representation>. Still committed to that, is he?

With Wilkinson’s triumph, the B.C. Liberal party has staked its future squarely on a 60-year-old, ultra-partisan, establishment “white dude” who epitomizes the past....

https://www.straight.com/news/1028311/martyn-brown-your-skin-crawling-yet

[logicbomb]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/icbc-losses-david-eby-1.4522277

ICBC placing $5.5K cap for pain and suffering on minor injury claims

Under the overall benefit cap increase from $150,000 to $300,000:

• Maximum wage loss benefits offered by ICBC will increase from $300 per week to $740.
• Homemaking benefits will increase from $145 to $280 a week.
• Benefits for funerals will increase from $2,500 to $7,500.
• Death benefits will increase from $17,580-$20,080 to $30,000.

On this note, I cannot count how many times I have been brake-checked in the past few months. I maintain a proper distance between me and the car in front of me and still get brake checked and most of these are occurring during right and left turns.

You want to know why the number of accidents continue to soar? Idiotic and reckless drivers on the road. It's absolute bullshit that nothing is being done to curb these idiots and yes, I do have a dashcam that has caught several motorists trying to intentionally get rear-ended.

[sunsetmountainland]

I would like to congratulate Andrew Wilkinson! The fact he is very important with Gordon Campbell's chief of staff gives me confidence that we have a great leader! Since Gordon Campbell is one of the best premiers we have ever had! With Andrew Wilkinson and Mike Dejong we will be very successful in the future!

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/icbc-losses-david-eby-1.4522277

ICBC placing $5.5K cap for pain and suffering on minor injury claims




On this note, I cannot count how many times I have been brake-checked in the past few months. I maintain a proper distance between me and the car in front of me and still get brake checked and most of these are occurring during right and left turns.

You want to know why the number of accidents continue to soar? Idiotic and reckless drivers on the road. It's absolute bullshit that nothing is being done to curb these idiots and yes, I do have a dashcam that has caught several motorists trying to intentionally get rear-ended.

I think bad drivers certainly need to be penalized more, but I think there are too many ways to get back on the road for "cheap" after causing accidents.

As for enforcement, I agree we could pour endless police resources and catch people all day long. A cheaper way might be more red light cameras, speed cameras, etc. At least get people trying to behave.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

I would like to congratulate Andrew Wilkinson! The fact he is very important with Gordon Campbell's chief of staff gives me confidence that we have a great leader! Since Gordon Campbell is one of the best premiers we have ever had! With Andrew Wilkinson and Mike Dejong we will be very successful in the future!

What spaceship did you just arrive on?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

What spaceship did you just arrive on?

Heeee's back.

[geotag277]

Too bad about Michael Lee - I thought he was the best choice.

BTW, whatever happened to stingray? Did he hightail it out of BC after the NDP took over?

[Tetsuo]

^^^^ I miss Stingray, his posts were great reads and he helped make me some money !

[sunsetmountainland]

Looks like the rookie John Horgan is losing his battle!

Horgan goes into the B.C. legislature next week to face the Liberals. To stay in power, he must feed and groom the Greens. It’s just the kind of dynamic that can cause a rookie premier, or his minister, to provoke an accidental crisis.

Horgan will offer a program of “affordability” for British Columbians. That’s what he wants to talk about, he said Wednesday.

He defended the new bitumen study — what else could he do? — but offered neither retaliation against Alberta nor any idea of how to end the wine blockade.

The last thing Horgan’s New Democrats want to hear next week is shouted questions about the wine ban, and what they intend to do about it.
And so, it comes to pass that Horgan needs exactly the same thing as Rachel Notley.

He needs Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to get him out of this. He needs very clear federal talk and action that prove more political resistance to the pipeline is futile.

Then he can throw up his hands and say, “I did my best,” and the torch will pass to the demonstrators.

Horgan and his crew also have to ask themselves what happens if they win this fight against the pipeline.

For one thing, they’d lose much of $1.5 billion in federal funding that was to be spent on marine safety.

They would forgo up to $1 billion from Kinder Morgan to enhance the environment. That was part of the agreement ex-premier Christy Clark signed with Kinder Morgan.

It was a great deal for B.C., but also an ominous sign that a province could impose what amounted to a toll on a pipeline under federal jurisdiction — and get away with it.

Through all this, opinion polls have consistently shown that a majority of British Columbians favour this project that has cleared every regulatory hurdle and won cabinet approval.

Trudeau has now talked to both Notley and Horgan. Federal officials are meeting with provincial counterparts. Some were apparently flying from Ottawa to Victoria on Wednesday.

A settlement is in the wind. Nobody needs it more than John Horgan. His first word to Trudeau should be: “Help!”

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/braid-b-c-premier-horgan-blew-it-needs-trudeau-to-save-him

John Horgan is a blow hard! lol What a flake! This is really telling think about it now!
What was the one thing the liberals failed to do that got them out of the running of the province?

It was the real estate file right well looks like Johnny boy is screwed that up also!!

something he did again this week when asked if B.C. will ban foreign real-estate purchases.

“I’m a child of an immigrant — I don’t think that’s the way we should proceed,” Horgan said.

“British Columbia is the gateway to Canada, and I don’t believe we should be curbing people from coming here.”

To Green party Leader Andrew Weaver, the comment betrayed a fundamental ignorance of the housing affordability crisis in B.C.

“I was shocked by that,” Weaver told me Wednesday.

“The problem is not immigrants coming here to live and work,” Weaver said. “The problem is the people who don’t come to live here. It’s about speculators outside of Canada using our real-estate market to park offshore capital, driving up prices for those who do live here.”


Weaver has called on the Horgan government to ban foreign real-estate purchases as one way to address a distorted market where Metro Vancouver prices jumped 65 per cent in just three years. The ban should not apply to legal immigrants or refugees living in Canada, he said.

New Zealand just banned foreign purchases and other jurisdictions have brought in similar measures to stem the inflow of offshore money.

“People everywhere are realizing how small jurisdictions can become engulfed by foreign capital, and that’s why governments are taking steps to protect the people who live and work there,” Weaver said.

Weaver thinks official estimates of foreign property purchases in B.C. are misleading because offshore buyers can use loopholes to keep their locations a secret.

He points to the recent Fu v. Zhu case in B.C. Supreme Court, in which two wealthy Chinese families fought over ownership of three multimillion-dollar Vancouver homes they bought together.

The court heard evidence that family members tried to deceive Canadian authorities about where they lived.

Then there was the case of Richmond immigration consultant Xun Wang, who pleaded guilty to creating fake documents to trick authorities into thinking his clients lived in B.C. when they actually lived in China.

“We need to take bold steps,” Weaver said.

“We need to enforce existing laws. We need to clamp down on foreign capital coming in. We need to close the loopholes that allow people to buy property through trusts, shell companies, nominees and partnerships.”

Weaver said he’s been swamped with messages of support since he called for the foreign purchase ban.

“Some of the most passionate concerns I’ve heard are from people within the Asian community,” he said.

“They came here as immigrants, worked hard, paid their taxes, and made enough to retire. Now they see their own children priced out of the housing market.”

Weaver said he intends to outline a series of measures next week to deal with the issue. It appears his governing partners in the NDP will not adopt them.

http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-horgan-flunks-foreign-real-estate-file

The N.D.P. flunky is a normal thing so nothing to be shocked about right?

The kid is getting served badly and looks like a deer in headlights right now! Lets face it Andrew Weaver is pulling the strings on this little puppet!

I did not want them in power because I knew what was going to happen! The thing is I am actually kind of liking watching them fall apart. (schadenfreude I know but it is still fun)

Cannot wait for Andrew Wilkinson, Mike Dejong and crew to be the official government in a couple of months.

[Spork]

You sound like you are coming from a position of being a party member and die hard BC Liberal voter, which makes your opinions about the present government falling apart quite biased.

I've voted BC Liberal in every previous election and voted BC NDP this time around and don't see the failings you are speaking about.

I personally can wait at least another 3 years until the BC Liberals clean themselves up and rid themselves of whatever money laundering, corrupt, self-interested cancer that attached itself to the party while CC was in power.

[logicbomb]

And they announced to increase the min wage to $15.20.

Now will begin the rapid automation of jobs and increased reliance of temp foreign workers and international students. All this while inflation and housing prices wipes out whatever gain anyone would have seen by then. I also think we'll see a gradual decrease in hours. Studies have shown productivity really goes down hill after the 6th hour of work.

Workers would have benefited by greatly improving the employment standards act over such an increase. My buddy runs a business and said he will now be cutting the paid breaks and lunch he would give his employees. One thing their business has done was reduce the working time from 8 hrs to 7.5 hrs.

I think we will see calls for base income or mass migration of the working class by 2030.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by Spork

You sound like you are coming from a position of being a party member and die hard BC Liberal voter, which makes your opinions about the present government falling apart quite biased.

I've voted BC Liberal in every previous election and voted BC NDP this time around and don't see the failings you are speaking about.

I personally can wait at least another 3 years until the BC Liberals clean themselves up and rid themselves of whatever money laundering, corrupt, self-interested cancer that attached itself to the party while CC was in power.

Listen, you are wrong. I am not a party member. I am a thoughful and reasonable person with a good memory and some experiences that millennials do not have.

The thing is kid you are conning or deceiving yourself of reality. Things do not get better with an N.D.P government. They are more corrupt and have a history of bankrupting the province with bad decisions. I lived in Nanaimo when Dave Stupich was in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Stupich

I remember the phrase of lets boogie from Mike Harcourt a very good man he is though.

I remember the Glen Clark era!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glen_Clark

I also know that Carol James is the Finance Minister is from the Glen Clark area so are most of your N.D.P. clan including Adrian Dix

So please give your head a shake if you do not know of these people and what they have done to our province in the past.
The thing is they seem to be getting worse Horgan looks like a deer in the headlights right now, and is in shock, he is not a real leader so please think
before you speak.

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

Listen, you are wrong. I am not a party member... -snip-

Ah I was just about to say, if you're not a party member, you must be another condescending baby boomer. Thanks for confirming.

Funny how there are lots of the latter that are also the former, though.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by bluefox

Ah I was just about to say, if you're not a party member, you must be another condescending baby boomer. Thanks for confirming.

Funny how there are lots of the latter that are also the former, though.

Again wrong I am generation X! My parents are very early baby boomers though. Just like location, timing is everything!

I will stat that my father was liberal party member as well as a past president and vice president of provincial ridings in both Nanaimo and Delta. If you want to know about a true gentleman politician my father worked for Fred Gingell
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Gingell not many people in politics are as respected more from all parties than this man.

Fred Gingell was an icon of wisdom
Times Colonist
JULY 25, 2017 12:05 AM
Les Leyne notes that our new government has removed the picture of “Liberal icon” Fred Gingell from their caucus room.


That’s a shame. Gingell was more accurately a rare icon of fairness, generosity and wisdom in the midst of often cutthroat partisan politics. His wise counsel would have benefited any government, particularly the untested one about to populate that room.



Carla Perry

Victoria

It's a somber day at the B.C. legislature: the member for Delta South, Liberal MLA Fred Gingell, has died after a long battle with cancer. He was sixty-eight.

Gingell had served as his party's deputy leader, as Liberal finance critic and as chair of the legislature's public accounts committee. He's described by his colleagues on both sides of the house as respected, dignified and classy.

Remembering facing off against Gingell when he was finance minister and Gingell the Liberal critic, Premier Glen Clark said "Fred was one of those rare individuals who could be very partisan and very tough but who never held a personal grudge, he was always a gentleman."

In a highly partisan and often acrimonious legislature, Gingell was one of the few members who commanded respect from all. He was first elected as a Liberal MLA from Delta South in 1991. He came to prominence in 1993 during a turbulent period for the Liberals. Gordon Wilson was on his way out as leader and Gordon Campbell on his way in. Gingell stepped in as interim opposition leader for six months. He was widely credited for keeping the party and caucus together. Today, Wilson remembers his old colleague and sometimes rival as a peacemaker.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/liberal-mla-dies-1.195647

I do welcome a debate about the N.D.P vs Liberal government if you have something intelligent to add though?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

I do welcome a debate about the N.D.P vs Liberal government if you have something intelligent to add though?

Please enlighten us to the evidence behind your claims that "the NDP are more corrupt and have a history of bankrupting this province."

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Please enlighten us to the evidence behind your claims that "the NDP are more corrupt and have a history of bankrupting this province."

I think that is common knowledge. Perhaps you should defend your N.D.P. bretherin?

I think I have pretty much explained it in my last couple of posts understanding that you maybe lazy!

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Boring, old guard, more of the same. Lame duck wins election full of lame ducks. Michael Lee might have been a nice change.

I think that is a interesting thought since what we have in the N.D.P is the same old same old that destroyed the province before!