Quote:
Originally Posted by giallo
I am assuming that the influx of Mainland Chinese will abate at some point in the near future. Of course, this all depends on the stability of the CCP. If they can fulfill their promises of a cleaner environment, a continued crackdown on government corruption and a long term, stable economy, this next Chinese generation coming through the school system now will have less desire to leave China.
If we do witness a complete collapse of trust in the government/or civil unrest/war, we'll be dealing with a whole new kind of Mainland Chinese immigrant; refugees.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack
The question is whether this can and will be sustained through both the willingness of sufficient numbers of Chinese people to move to Canada, and no significant change in Canada's immigration policies.
Canada's immigration policies are unlikely to change in the short term I'd say.
As for people moving from China, I'd say that even if conditions improve there, there is so much population that there will always be enough people leaving for Canada to sustain a decent level of immigration to Canada. And replace those kids who are assimilating.
Provided Canada still wants to accept them. Which I think it will.
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While, not as big in population as China obviously, with it and India being the only 1 billion-plus countries, there are large countries like Germany (82 million), Japan (127 million) and Russia (147 million) no longer sending that many immigrants to the western hemisphere even if they did in the past.
On the other hand, some large countries like Indonesia (262 million), Brazil (208 million), Nigeria (193 million) and Bangladesh (164 million) are not really sending large numbers to Canada in proportion to their population.
Usually countries like Japan or Germany (or the EU countries more broadly) usually stop sending large masses of immigrants once they're wealthy, developed and industrialized, democratic, safe etc. but it's a matter of if this will happen to China anytime soon. Some countries like Germany or Italy within not more than a few generations even flipped from being countries whose issue was masses of people trying to emigrate away then, versus masses of people trying to immigrate now.
Then, there are countries like Nigeria, nearing 200 million and historically sending very few (voluntary) immigrants to western countries but now gradually doing so. I've read that the very
poorest countries
and the very
richest countries generally do not send lots of immigrants -- those in the rich ones have little incentive to do so, and those in the very poor ones, say the Congo, have a hard time having the wherewithal to set up a new life in industrialized countries, and often getting such countries to take them in (besides refugees, if such nations are being generous, and even so, not very often). So apart from refugees, it's the poor, but rising/industrializing countries, like China, India etc. that have some means to move (and often transfer skills/education in the old country to the new) and set up shop in places like the US, Canada etc.
So, it's hard to tell China's trajectory as an immigrant-sending nation in the next few decades. If I recall, China is no longer the top sending country to Canada (it's India and the Philippines that's ahead I think). But there's always uncertainties, such as if China faces unrest, and a new wave of refugees is unleashed, like mentioned previously, or if China will be able to develop as well as become democratic in future generations.