Calgary International Airport II

[Blader]

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

As much as I'm not a fan of AC, they did have a point. Emirates is subsidised by their government and has been known to add routes even if they lose money- just to stifle the competition. In this case there isn't an existing route, but if carriers like AC were looking at Dubai some day, but waiting for the economics to make sense, someone like Emirates putting in a money losing route ahead of them is an issue.

^^^
Further, some analysts speculated that servicing YYC was a ploy to increase national support. That is, it never was under serious consideration.

[zahav]

No other Canadian airport is going to get Emirates service until the bilateral is amended, they are maxed out and the pressure to keep the status quo is strong.

There's strong rumours Turkey and Canada are going to renegotiate the bilateral and Turkish will commence YVR flights. Would be good for YYC if they get added too!

In terms of South America flights, YVR has been hoping for this for a long time and nothing has materialized. If Venezuela was on good terms and wasn't such a basket case then YYC might have some flights there due to oil industry (even the AC flights from YYZ were cancelled in 2014 and never resumed). But other than that it's hard to imagine any South America destinations from YYC before even YVR gets one. Europe is definitely the best bet for increased flights from YYC

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by zahav

There's strong rumours Turkey and Canada are going to renegotiate the bilateral and Turkish will commence YVR flights. Would be good for YYC if they get added too!

Oooh! I think that could be quite successful. Spectacular destination, and also good international transfer point.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

As much as I'm not a fan of AC, they did have a point. Emirates is subsidised by their government and has been known to add routes even if they lose money- just to stifle the competition. In this case there isn't an existing route, but if carriers like AC were looking at Dubai some day, but waiting for the economics to make sense, someone like Emirates putting in a money losing route ahead of them is an issue.

I don't think the issue is AC wanting to have all the flights to Dubai for itself. The issue is connecting traffic to India and the middle east that normally helps fill the flights from Calgary to Europe. That would impact AC, BA and KLM.

[LO 044]

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

As much as I'm not a fan of AC, they did have a point. Emirates is subsidised by their government and has been known to add routes even if they lose money- just to stifle the competition. In this case there isn't an existing route, but if carriers like AC were looking at Dubai some day, but waiting for the economics to make sense, someone like Emirates putting in a money losing route ahead of them is an issue.

While i don't disagree with you about Emirates these anti-competition moves are done by most of the industry. Do we need to rehash why WestJet started a route to Phoenix Mesa? Same thing with subsidies. Did AC get similar pricing to Delta on the C-Series jets? Bombardier has been bailed out repeatedly and the company would have been bankrupt without that help so perhaps AC received a subsidy indirectly from our government via Bombardier. And if you want something more recent let's mention Air Berlin being propped up long enough by the German government so Lufthansa could get their hands on much of Air Berlin as possible.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by casper

I don't think the issue is AC wanting to have all the flights to Dubai for itself. The issue is connecting traffic to India and the middle east that normally helps fill the flights from Calgary to Europe. That would impact AC, BA and KLM.

With other new international routes popping up in Canada (eg YVR-DEL and the plethora of new YVR-China flights) we may see more domestic connections rather than new international flights.
2018 is looking pretty stagnant on the international front. In fact AC is scaling back capacity to LHR and NRT. All other long-haul international routes this year are status quo on frequency and capacity. The gains in international we are seeing is mainly due to increased sun flying by WestJet.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by GoflamesGo

I know the economy is stil recovering. But does anyone have any insight or has anyone heard any rumors of future international destinations from YYC? I'd love to see regular direct to Paris, or maybe a Middle East or South American destination.

So far just 3 New transborder routes and 1 new international route for 2018. All to markets already severed currently.

WS and Frontier (the only new airline so far) to DEN
WS to MEX
And AA to ORD.

There has been some rumours of ATL and BOS, but nothing concrete yet.

I suspect we won’t see any new long haul routes until WS has its 787s in play. I’d say CDG could be among those too. But this won’t be until next year at the absolute earliest.

[Chinook Arch]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Oooh! I think that could be quite successful. Spectacular destination, and also good international transfer point.

I doubt it. YVR already has flights to London, Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt and those are good enough transfer points already, no need for another one in Istanbul.

[Chinook Arch]

Originally Posted by LO 044

While i don't disagree with you about Emirates these anti-competition moves are done by most of the industry. Do we need to rehash why WestJet started a route to Phoenix Mesa? Same thing with subsidies. Did AC get similar pricing to Delta on the C-Series jets? Bombardier has been bailed out repeatedly and the company would have been bankrupt without that help so perhaps AC received a subsidy indirectly from our government via Bombardier. And if you want something more recent let's mention Air Berlin being propped up long enough by the German government so Lufthansa could get their hands on much of Air Berlin as possible.

I realise subsidies exist in other airlines, but in this case I'm not surprised AC made a fuss to the Canadian government, after all they are a Canadian company. The Canadian government needn't care what companies like Air Berlin do unless it affects a route into Canada.

I'm not sure what your point about Westjet to Phoenix is? Are you saying Westjet opening the route is stifling competition? Maybe it is, but Westjet is a private company, they're allowed to do that.

[People.talking]

Does anyone know how much cargo went through YYC in 2017, also?

[msmariner]

With Westjet ending their codesharing with American this month. I see American is flying YYC/ORD again. What are the odds of them starting to fly PHx/YYC with their own metal again? Or possibly from other hubs like LAX?

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

I doubt it. YVR already has flights to London, Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt and those are good enough transfer points already, no need for another one in Istanbul.

The real value add is that it, like going direct to Dubai, eliminates the high cost of landing in the EU when you're not wanting to travel to the EU.

[casper]

Originally Posted by suburbia

The real value add is that it, like going direct to Dubai, eliminates the high cost of landing in the EU when you're not wanting to travel to the EU.

Air Canada is slowly expanding their non-stops into India from Vancouver. I suspect India corresponds to a good percentage of travel beyond the EU.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by casper

Air Canada is slowly expanding their non-stops into India from Vancouver. I suspect India corresponds to a good percentage of travel beyond the EU.

....and what TK will go after if/when they launch YVR.

[GoflamesGo]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

So far just 3 New transborder routes and 1 new international route for 2018. All to markets already severed currently.

WS and Frontier (the only new airline so far) to DEN
WS to MEX
And AA to ORD.

There has been some rumours of ATL and BOS, but nothing concrete yet.

I suspect we won’t see any new long haul routes until WS has its 787s in play. I’d say CDG could be among those too. But this won’t be until next year at the absolute earliest.

Damn. Thanks for the insight!

[Cage]

Originally Posted by GoflamesGo

I know the economy is stil recovering. But does anyone have any insight or has anyone heard any rumors of future international destinations from YYC? I'd love to see regular direct to Paris, or maybe a Middle East or South American destination.

From the WS investor day December 6th, the following new route possibilities with introduction of Dreamliner

Asia: NRT, ICN
Sun: CUN, MBJ, PUJ, maybe VRA
Europe: LGW, AMS, FCO, CDG, DUB, MAN, GLA, BHX

Most of Asia is proposed from YVR, however WS will have difficulty simply mimicking AC and foreign airline routes. I can see a path whereby WS gets international route rights out of YYC because they are innovative/new. More importantly, WS may find the competitive environment from YVR to be too much and instead look at the YYC market more favourably.

The Sun destination flying would be a good use for the 763s. Summer 763 flying could be a mix of transcon with a few Europe trips flown (e.g. YEG-LGW and YYC-DUB, YWG-LGW. All a few times per week).

Europe has the Skyteam bases all covered. Also a very heavy british isles network that appears to be TS network duplication. At the investor day conference, WS execs mentioned several times they are interested in going after TS type of markets and traffic rather than AC.

[PPAR]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

With other new international routes popping up in Canada (eg YVR-DEL and the plethora of new YVR-China flights) we may see more domestic connections rather than new international flights.
2018 is looking pretty stagnant on the international front. In fact AC is scaling back capacity to LHR and NRT. All other long-haul international routes this year are status quo on frequency and capacity. The gains in international we are seeing is mainly due to increased sun flying by WestJet.

Interesting observations. We have known the game plan from AC for a couple of years, and it has come to fruition. That (5yr?) plan involved focusing on international expansion out of YVR, YYZ, and YUL with little attention to domestic markets.
The next stage for AC is necessarily increasing domestic connections to feed the new international routes. The risk has always been that this play left the flank open for WS to expand. They essentially took the bet that the downturn in Alberta would hamstring WS ability to compete.
I think the challenge for AC is that things never got that bad for WS. We can especially see this playing out in YYC where WS is now dominant. The question heading forward is whether Delta and Westjet can take advantage of AC benign neglect of the Canadian Market outside the major hubs.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by msmariner

With Westjet ending their codesharing with American this month. I see American is flying YYC/ORD again. What are the odds of them starting to fly PHx/YYC with their own metal again? Or possibly from other hubs like LAX?

The odds are not in our favour for a major AA expansion into YYC or Canada following a JV between WS and DL plus a second JV between AC and UA.

Yogi Berra said it best "It's like déjà vu all over again". The last time was 97-2000 when AC was in Star and CP was in Oneworld. DL (with no Canadian dance partner) pretty much pulled down their transborder schedule to YYC/YVR-SLC, pulled out of YEG.

[thenoflyzone]

YYC's solution to the swing gate issue over at D70-73.

[TheGreatestX]

Originally Posted by Cage

The odds are not in our favour for a major AA expansion into YYC or Canada following a JV between WS and DL plus a second JV between AC and UA.

Yogi Berra said it best "It's like déjà vu all over again". The last time was 97-2000 when AC was in Star and CP was in Oneworld. DL (with no Canadian dance partner) pretty much pulled down their transborder schedule to YYC/YVR-SLC, pulled out of YEG.

Delta ended YEG-SLC when it merged with NW.