PHILADELPHIA | Highrise Development Thread IX

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by jjv007

True, but look at Philadelphia's peer cities historically. NY, LA, Chicago, San Fran, Boston, DC. They're all doing better at the moment and the gap isn't really lessening.

Economic trends and fundamentals underlie ANY construction boom in any city, and frankly, Philly is doing just as good, if not better, than many of the cities you mention.

For quick reference, here are the latest (October 2017) job growth numbers (year-over-year) for the metro areas you mention:

Metro Area (% Annual Jobs Growth Rate)

Boston (2.3%)
DC (1.4%)
Philadelphia (1.3%)
San Francisco (1.2%)
New York (0.9%)
Los Angeles (0.8%)
Chicago (0.5%)


https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.t04.htm

The only city on that list with any meaningfully faster growth is Boston, which I honestly don't see lasting (that area is on the precipice of a major labor shortage, and housing costs are a huge barrier-to-entry for young workers).

Not trying to incite a city-versus-city debate whatsoever, but the notion that Philly is still fundamentally weaker than other major metros economically is very much an "old school Philadelphia" way of thinking. It's simply not true any longer.

Now you may make the argument that a much greater proportion of the metro area's economic growth/jobs should be in the city proper, which is a valid point, and that is certainly true of late, but long-standing trends take time to change and alter. And Philly is doing much to level the "playing field" with the suburbs.

[iheartphilly]

^
Try this site too:
https://www.chicagofed.org/region/community-development/data/pcit

Also, for the sake of discussion, what about this about millennial moving out of the city?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-17/exodus-starts-millennials-ditch-city-life

[SEFTA]

hmmm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

[McBane]

Originally Posted by Knight Hospitaller

It's been said by others before, but I'd rather have a bunch of modest-height towers than one big one (as nice as those are).

Agreed, although I really, really, really want to see a couple of 600 footers. We have a few 550 footers, IBX at 625, and then BAT and FMC at 700+ ft. We had a chance with 1911 Walnut, but well, you know.

As to the job growth numbers, it's good but remember, those numbers are for the whole metro area. Phila metro area's job growth is higher than NYC and Chicago and yet those cities are putting up numerous office towers because those cities have a smaller proportion of jobs out in the burbs. We need to fix that.

[iheartphilly]

Originally Posted by SEFTA

hmmm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

^^
Agreed. Wasn't confirming veracity or credibility from that link. Just wanted to get people's opinion about where the state of millennial were in the US cities, and in particular our own Philly. Personally, I think Philly has done well to keep and bring millennial in the city. Some of the arguments made in that article are common knowledge and was discussed on this forum previously. But, we have refuted it with our own analysis as well.

[Knight Hospitaller]

Originally Posted by iheartphilly

NYC is not a peer city to Philly. Never have and never will be.

Well, before the Erie Canal it was.

[summersm343]

Philly Amazon HQ2 bid dangled office space in 30th Street Station, bid document shows

Read more here:
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/re...ion-navy-yard-ucity-square-20171220.html

[jjv007]

Originally Posted by Knight Hospitaller

I didn't say that it was. If forced to choose, I would choose many shorter ones over one tall one. That's all I'm saying.

Ok that's fair. I would probably agree with you as well.

[jjv007]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Have you been to Atlanta?

It's not passing Philly. Not now, not any time in the future.

It is still very much a city oriented toward it's suburbs. Is that changing? Yes. Will it have the scale and walkability that Philadelphia has, ever in our lifetimes?

Not in a long shot.

Philly's urbanism and walkability has always been great and should continue to be. But not all cities are built in the same way. I was talking about city economics and demographics as a whole, not really in regards to urbanism specifically. Everybody here knows that Atlanta isn't gonna win any walkability battles against Northeast cities.

[jjv007]

Originally Posted by ePlanningPhila

I would say $9 Billion dollars of projects on the books, and the soon to be completion of what will be the tallest building in the USA outside of NYC and Chicago. We certainly are not doing bad. lol The momentum is only going to continue.

Are other cities booming? Sure. But so are we.

I think we're doing solid as I said, the term booming often connotes a city progressing at or very close to its optimal growth rate though. I hope none of the forum thinks this is the best Philly can do. Also, massive individual construction projects like CITC are great, but have less to do with the market as a whole, and more to do with an individual corporation's needs. A construction boom usually involves varied investment across the board in office, residential, and mixed used spaces. To be fair, the city has had a fairly good bit of diversity in the past several years.

[jjv007]

Originally Posted by UrbanRevival

Economic trends and fundamentals underlie ANY construction boom in any city, and frankly, Philly is doing just as good, if not better, than many of the cities you mention.

For quick reference, here are the latest (October 2017) job growth numbers (year-over-year) for the metro areas you mention:

Metro Area (% Annual Jobs Growth Rate)

Boston (2.3%)
DC (1.4%)
Philadelphia (1.3%)
San Francisco (1.2%)
New York (0.9%)
Los Angeles (0.8%)
Chicago (0.5%)


https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.t04.htm

The only city on that list with any meaningfully faster growth is Boston, which I honestly don't see lasting (that area is on the precipice of a major labor shortage, and housing costs are a huge barrier-to-entry for young workers).

Not trying to incite a city-versus-city debate whatsoever, but the notion that Philly is still fundamentally weaker than other major metros economically is very much an "old school Philadelphia" way of thinking. It's simply not true any longer.

Now you may make the argument that a much greater proportion of the metro area's economic growth/jobs should be in the city proper, which is a valid point, and that is certainly true of late, but long-standing trends take time to change and alter. And Philly is doing much to level the "playing field" with the suburbs.

Annual jobs growth rate is not the greatest statistic to use because it fluctuates highly year by year; it also is just one statistic, a very broad one at that. Additionally, because it is a percentage statistic, it has to do with the number of jobs beforehand. It's like in the NFL, if a team is most improved, it doesn't make them the best team. I'll agree that Philly's doing some good things but is it considered a more attractive place to do business than any of the cities you mentioned? I don't think so.

[tsarstruck]

Originally Posted by iheartphilly

Also, for the sake of discussion, what about this about millennial moving out of the city?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-17/exodus-starts-millennials-ditch-city-life

Every bit of nonsensein that and similar articles is handled here: https://www.citylab.com/life/2017/12/are-young-people-really-leaving-cities/548864/.

In summary: the *defined range* of millennials is getting older. So if millenials were 16-31 five years ago, they're 21-36 now. When you take out 18-20 year olds in university rich places like (flips to terrible article, finds their key examples) Boston and Los Angeles, suddenly the population of millenials "drops" while people in the original 16-31 age range still increases. As millennials age, less of *them* will live in the city (but way more will stay in the city compared to similar age ranges of the previous generation), but the trends for urban livin in the generation behind the millenials stay strong.

There is no there there. No one expected all of the millenials in their twenties to stay in cities. And many of the millenials are leaving not even because they want suburban living, but because city living has become so unaffordable because we haven't built sufficient housing.

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by tsarstruck

Every bit of nonsensein that and similar articles is handled here: https://www.citylab.com/life/2017/12/are-young-people-really-leaving-cities/548864/.

In summary: the *defined range* of millennials is getting older. So if millenials were 16-31 five years ago, they're 21-36 now. When you take out 18-20 year olds in university rich places like (flips to terrible article, finds their key examples) Boston and Los Angeles, suddenly the population of millenials "drops" while people in the original 16-31 age range still increases. As millennials age, less of *them* will live in the city (but way more will stay in the city compared to similar age ranges of the previous generation), but the trends for urban livin in the generation behind the millenials stay strong.

There is no there there. No one expected all of the millenials in their twenties to stay in cities. And many of the millenials are leaving not even because they want suburban living, but because city living has become so unaffordable because we haven't built sufficient housing.

yeah, common sense doesn't work well for these arguments... Did some memo get circulated that EVERY millenial in a city will stay for the rest of their lives?!?!

As you suggest nicely, not every millenial who moves to a city will stay...but so long as a *larger percentage* of those who move in stay then in previous generations - and other urban oriented factors remain consistent - then city populations will continue to climb. That's the point.

[Gonzo the Great]

And now for something a little different ..... and before I forget .....

Heres wishing a Merry Christmas to one and all .

.... from Gonzo and friends .

[Plokoon11]

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you all! Here's to opening a present of a comcast 3 announcement!

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by jjv007

Annual jobs growth rate is not the greatest statistic to use because it fluctuates highly year by year; it also is just one statistic, a very broad one at that. Additionally, because it is a percentage statistic, it has to do with the number of jobs beforehand. It's like in the NFL, if a team is most improved, it doesn't make them the best team. I'll agree that Philly's doing some good things but is it considered a more attractive place to do business than any of the cities you mentioned? I don't think so.

Of course there's no one catch-all measure of local economic activity, but I'd counter to you that the annual job growth measure is a pretty good one. Yes, it does fluctuate from year-to-year, but not as dramatically as you may think.

Also, at this point the phrase "attractive" or "good place" for business has become so overused that that it's lost its meaning, not to mention that it's so nebulous a term that you could argue almost any facet of a place being "attractive" or "not attractive" for business. For example, cities like New York and Boston are going to be much more susceptible to rising sea levels in the coming years? Does that make them more "attractive" for business?

In other words, as the world continues to evolve, factors for being a good place for business have evolved also. And the list of considerations as to where to locate/grow a business is getting longer and longer. The counter-weights to the more "conventional" business destinations are getting "heavier" as well (i.e., tapped-out labor forces, obscene housing costs, infrastructure/population growth mismatch).

[summersm343]

More on potential Gallery Towers

Simon isn’t the only mall owner incorporating apartments and other uses beyond retail into their projects. Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust, which is redeveloping the Gallery, has entertained developing apartment towers above the future outlet center. In its third quarter call with analysts, Joe Coradino, CEO of PREIT, said that engineering work and discussions were underway on that front.

“That’s something that would be a real benefit to the project,” Coradino told analysts, saying that apartments create built in customers for the retail center that is now referred to as Fashion District Philadelphia. “Nothing like that exists in Philadelphia."

https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia...sia-mall-apartments-office-jcpenney.html

[summersm343]

From Fashion District Philadelphia Website:

Only show two towers over the Gallery/Fashion District Mall now. One I believe is apartments at 9th and Market, and one will be a hotel. Most interstingly though, look across the street on Market... looks like towers there centered around the 1000 block of Market.



http://www.fashiondistrictphiladelphia.com/Redevelopment#progressphotos

[Knight Hospitaller]

Adding residential towers to the Gallery makes a lot of sense. Not only does it add a customer base, but the “foundations,“ as it were, are already in place. That has to make the cost of adding towers less expensive then would normally be the case.

[summersm343]

Wolf distributes $35M for real estate projects in Philadelphia

Pennsylvania has earmarked $35.6 million from its Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program for more than two dozen projects in Philadelphia.

The largest amount, $5 million, was given to Mission First Housing Group for the first phase of a $50 million project called New Market West, which is a is a four-story, 90,000-square-foot building that will house retail space and community services at 5901 Market St. in West Philadelphia.

Another $3 million was approved for the renovation and development of an industrial manufacturing center at the Philadelphia Navy Yard. The facility will accommodate equipment involved in the manufacturing of maritime and defense products.

Dranoff Properties received $1.4 million for its SLS International Hotel & Residences project on South Broad Street. The developer, which also received $1 million last year, had requested $20 million. The project involves the development of 110 hotel rooms and roughly 100 condominiums at Broad and Spruce streets in Center City.

Among those that also received funding were:

-Pennsylvania Academy of the Fine Arts, which received $500,000 for the development of a campus master plan;
-Walnut Street Theatre received $1 million for an expansion project;
-Arts & Crafts Holdings received $1.5 million for the redevelopment of 915 Spring Garden St.;
-The Delaware River Waterfront Corp. got $2 million for Spring Garden and Festival Piers;
-Drexel University received $1 million for its Bossone Research Labs.

https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia...ent-dollars-mission-first-sls-hotel.html