LeBreton Flats 2.0 (RendezVous LeBreton) | Cancelled

[acottawa]

Mr. Firestone's entire plan was to fund the arena by rezoning agricultural land his family owned west of Kanata. What would he have done if the NCC said yes to Lebreton?

[roger1818]

For fun I drew a map of the 10km and 25km catchment areas for both the CTC and the proposed LeBreton Arena. I used simple circles (or at least the best I could with the limitations of Google My Maps), which don't take into account driving distances, but it gives you a good idea of the available market with both locations.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1SmxTg-Q5DGYv4FL2XVcSIP-jdLwG4b-b&usp=sharing

[Lakeofthewood]

Originally Posted by roger1818

For fun I drew a map of the 10km and 25km catchment areas for both the CTC and the proposed LeBreton Arena. I used simple circles (or at least the best I could with the limitations of Google My Maps), which don't take into account driving distances, but it gives you a good idea of the available market with both locations.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1SmxTg-Q5DGYv4FL2XVcSIP-jdLwG4b-b&usp=sharing

Well done! Anyone who looks at this and continues to argue that the Sens will lose fans by moving downtown is insane. 10km radius from CTC doesn't even reach Bayshore!

[HighwayStar]

Originally Posted by roger1818

For fun I drew a map of the 10km and 25km catchment areas for both the CTC and the proposed LeBreton Arena. I used simple circles (or at least the best I could with the limitations of Google My Maps), which don't take into account driving distances, but it gives you a good idea of the available market with both locations.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1SmxTg-Q5DGYv4FL2XVcSIP-jdLwG4b-b&usp=sharing

Nice job... it's actually even worse, as it shows (the area formerly known as) Aylmer within the 25km bubble... however anyone from there would have to backtrack to the Island Park Bridge... from where their 25km is just beginning.

[kevinbottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

For fun I drew a map of the 10km and 25km catchment areas for both the CTC and the proposed LeBreton Arena. I used simple circles (or at least the best I could with the limitations of Google My Maps), which don't take into account driving distances, but it gives you a good idea of the available market with both locations.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1SmxTg-Q5DGYv4FL2XVcSIP-jdLwG4b-b&usp=sharing

Looking at the catchment for the downtown arena, I imagine you'd get quite a few people from Clarence-Rockland going to games even though they're outside the 25km range.

[YOWflier]

What's the significance of 10 and 25 km as it relates to (potential) hockey goers?

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by dougvdh

And they're not going to lose mass number of Kanata fans by going downtown. Literally no one lives in Kanata because they don't like driving or traffic - more than half of them drive downtown on a daily basis anyways - staying downtown for the evening to catch a game doesn't add anymore driving to the hundreds of hours they'll spend in a car every year.

More than half? Kanata has a very high percentage of people who work "locally" (within Kanata) and thus are not drivingtravelling downtown on a daily basis. I haven't seen any stats on this, but I would be very surprised if half the households (let alone people) have someone in it working downtown. This is reflected in the much lower transit usage numbers Kanata has compared to Barhaven and Orleans (OC Transpo has made it almost impossible to travel to the major employment centres in Kanata from Kanata).

For those who do work downtown, I agree and it would be even easier to see a game at LeBreton on a weekday than at the CTC, as they will be traveling right past it on their way home. It does mean a later night though, as it is a longer trip home after the game.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by HighwayStar

it's actually even worse, as it shows (the area formerly known as) Aylmer within the 25km bubble... however anyone from there would have to backtrack to the Island Park Bridge... from where their 25km is just beginning.

Agreed. I think I mentioned something about the bridges in an earlier post.

Originally Posted by kevinbottawa

Looking at the catchment for the downtown arena, I imagine you'd get quite a few people from Clarence-Rockland going to games even though they're outside the 25km range.

True I don't see the catchments as hard cutoffs but rather an indication of how many people are/would be nearby and thus might be willing to go to more games than if they lived further.

Originally Posted by ac888yow

What's the significance of 10 and 25 km as it relates to (potential) hockey goers?

Nothing really. I picked them as they seemed like nice numbers (I was going to do 10 and 20 but thought 25 was nicer before even looking at the map). I used them as distances I figured people would be willing to travel to go to a game very regularly or somewhat regularly (people will travel large distances to go to a game occasionally). I am open to modify the map if you think a different distance would be better.

If I had time, I could have drawn many concentric circles at varying distances, but I thought two was good enough.

The real indication is comparative since the same distances are used for both locations. They show how many people will live close to the LeBreton arena compared to the CTC. If Google had a population density map I could have used, I would have made that the default map.

One thing the map doesn't show is how willing people are to travel longer distances. The further people live from the city centre, the more willing they tend to be to travel longer distances on a regular basis. Thus those from Kanata will be more willing travel downtown than those downtown travel to Kanata.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by daud

the rumour mill keeps popping up the name Desmarais. Sometimes with Laliberte, sometimes with Jeff Hunt (though I don't think Jeff Hunt by himself has any real skin to invest-his partners certainly do). RDS has some commentary about Melnyk not having the capital to move forward currently and that this is where Desmarais and Laliberte may step in. Other blogs mention Desmarais with Jeff Hunt and then of course you have Liam McGuire's blog that said the sale was all but done.

How would that work if one or two of the main DCDLS partners buy the team? Wouldn't that void the LeBreton competition? I certainly don't want to see the DCDLS proposal built.

Originally Posted by acottawa

The Lebreton arena is probably somewhere in the high nine digits (payment to NCC, cleanup, infrastructure, the actual arena) plus a need to write down the CTC (which will probably be sold for land value) and give up parking revenue. There will be development revenue, but with the retail, office and condo markets pretty quiet these days these are likely longer-term revenues. As far as I know the only small market team to build an arena without public funds was Ottawa, and the debt from the arena bankrupted the team (and cost the banks big time) so I'm not sure the banks will finance another arena project.

The NCC has responsibility in the cleanup because they were the ones who expropriated. The City has responsibility because they used it as a snow dump for decades and because they have to (or should be forced to) honour their existing tax breaks and incentives to cleanup contaminated sites. RVL will have to pony up some cash in any case because they either buy the site contaminated or buy it at higher value after it is cleaned up.

Parking rates are likely ridiculously high partly because attendance is low (recoup the lost revenue from asses in seats). With a downtown arena, games are pretty much guaranteed sold out and the team doesn't have a giant parking lot to re-pave every few years, winter maintenance, staffing, traffic control. (EDIT: phil235 has already touched on this).

Originally Posted by roger1818

For fun I drew a map of the 10km and 25km catchment areas for both the CTC and the proposed LeBreton Arena. I used simple circles (or at least the best I could with the limitations of Google My Maps), which don't take into account driving distances, but it gives you a good idea of the available market with both locations.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1SmxTg-Q5DGYv4FL2XVcSIP-jdLwG4b-b&usp=sharing

Thanks, nicely done.

The whole thing about losing Kanata fans is BS. I've lived in Carp and Richmond and I can tell you guys that it takes as much, if not more time to get to the game from there than it does from downtown. Even if you take one of the restaurant shuttles, you're still stuck in traffic leaving the restaurant.

If anything, those living in and around Kanata (and the west end in general) will be happy to see the Sens move downtown because it will mean game nights will make it easier to go back home from work.

[acottawa]

I think the generalized problem with the whole Lebreton project is usually large developments like this are accompanied by the relocation of institutions. For example the ICE district in Edmonton involved relocating the hockey team, but also the casino, municipal offices, and the HQ of a fairly large company. This means that restaurants and the like can expect business at different times. With Lebreton there is no support apparent support from other partners.

[YOWflier]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Nothing really. I picked them as they seemed like nice numbers (I was going to do 10 and 20 but thought 25 was nicer before even looking at the map). I used them as distances I figured people would be willing to travel to go to a game very regularly or somewhat regularly (people will travel large distances to go to a game occasionally). I am open to modify the map if you think a different distance would be better.

No need. It's a fascinating map that proves what we already knew, which is that the central location is equidistant from all corners of the region. I just thought that maybe there was a study or something that correlates those distances with attendance.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Parking rates are likely ridiculously high partly because attendance is low (recoup the lost revenue from asses in seats). With a downtown arena, games are pretty much guaranteed sold out and the team doesn't have a giant parking lot to re-pave every few years, winter maintenance, staffing, traffic control. (EDIT: phil235 has already touched on this).

What are you basing that on? A new arena would likely be smaller (probably in the 17-18k range) so selling out would be easier, but in a city where playoff games don't even sell out I have a hard time believing that suddenly people are going to flock to games. A Lebreton arena is still going to be a pain in the ass to get to for most people in the region.

[Lakeofthewood]

Originally Posted by acottawa

What are you basing that on? A new arena would likely be smaller (probably in the 17-18k range) so selling out would be easier, but in a city where playoff games don't even sell out I have a hard time believing that suddenly people are going to flock to games. A Lebreton arena is still going to be a pain in the ass to get to for most people in the region.

I'd be interested to see your argument for this, especially given roger1818's map. It's understandable that we're all just guessing right now, but I (and I'm sure others) can't really understand your stance when you see how many people live within 10 km of the new arena.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Lakeofthewood

I'd be interested to see your argument for this, especially given roger1818's map. It's understandable that we're all just guessing right now, but I (and I'm sure others) can't really understand your stance when you see how many people live within 10 km of the new arena.

People who live in NW centretown, Little Italy, Chinatown, on the Flats, etc. can walk so the location is perfect. That's maybe 30-40k people. It is also a good location for tourists.

Everyone else is either
1) driving to a nearby neighbourhood (with related congestion, etc) and walking
2) taking local transit to an LRT station, waiting for a train that has room, packing in like sardines
3) taking some sort of a connection route, then packing in like sardines
4) taking some sort of 400 series route (which would have all of the hassles of the existing 400 series routes, minus dedicated lanes)

The hassles of getting to the CTC are not particularly related to the distance between Kanata and downtown (which is only 20-30 minutes in either a bus or car) it is all of the other BS that goes with it (getting in and out of the parking lot, trying to cram onto a bus, etc).

In my view this hassle is the price of attending a sporting event, but if the fanbase has a limited tolerance for hassle then there's a problem whether it is in Kanata or downtown.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by acottawa

What are you basing that on? A new arena would likely be smaller (probably in the 17-18k range) so selling out would be easier, but in a city where playoff games don't even sell out I have a hard time believing that suddenly people are going to flock to games. A Lebreton arena is still going to be a pain in the ass to get to for most people in the region.

A smaller arena is a big factor. Having it central will distribute the traffic (cars and transit) nearly equally on all sides, making travel less frustrating. It opens the door to possible STO shuttles (possibly gaining Gatineau fans over time). The arena will be between two O-Train stations and serve both lines, and if these transit lines can move 11,000 phpd on opening day, they will certainly be able to fill up and flush a 17,000-18,000 seat arena in a few hours (not to mention a lot of people will come in earlier or leave later to eat out compared to Kanata). And best of all, the Phoenix pay system (PPS) might be fixed by then.

As for the associated development, 1. condo market is currently dead, but we're seeing a boom in the rental market , 2. Trinity will have at least one of its towers built at Bayview by then, 3. the central library should be open by then, 4. I'm sure the signature hotel will open up around the same time as the arena,along with the Sensplex and Abilities Centre, 5. condo market will probably pick up once PPS is fixed, 7. If Shpify continues to grow at its current rate, they might be looking for a new headquarters within 5-10 years (after the old Export building is filled up).

[dougvdh]

Originally Posted by roger1818

More than half? Kanata has a very high percentage of people who work "locally" (within Kanata) and thus are not drivingtravelling downtown on a daily basis. I haven't seen any stats on this, but I would be very surprised if half the households (let alone people) have someone in it working downtown. This is reflected in the much lower transit usage numbers Kanata has compared to Barhaven and Orleans (OC Transpo has made it almost impossible to travel to the major employment centres in Kanata from Kanata).

For those who do work downtown, I agree and it would be even easier to see a game at LeBreton on a weekday than at the CTC, as they will be traveling right past it on their way home. It does mean a later night though, as it is a longer trip home after the game.

2011 Origins / Distination Survey:
24 Hours - Work or related
From District: 27,180 29%
To District: 17,020 18%
Within District: 14,550 9%

http://www.ncr-trans-rcn.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/500-KanataStittsville-2011.pdf

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

A smaller arena is a big factor. Having it central will distribute the traffic (cars and transit) nearly equally on all sides, making travel less frustrating. It opens the door to possible STO shuttles (possibly gaining Gatineau fans over time). The arena will be between two O-Train stations and serve both lines, and if these transit lines can move 11,000 phpd on opening day, they will certainly be able to fill up and flush a 17,000-18,000 seat arena in a few hours (not to mention a lot of people will come in earlier or leave later to eat out compared to Kanata). And best of all, the Phoenix pay system (PPS) might be fixed by then.

But highway traffic itself hasn't been a problem since they widened the highway, problems occur getting in and out of the arena area. Congestion in the local area will probably exist at Lebreton as well (as it does at Landsdowne)

I don't doubt that OCTranspo could handle the arena passengers (assuming they run enough trains) but if someone finds the current 30 minute bus ride so intolerable they refuse to go to the games then it is hard to see how those same "fans" would be willing to go to games at Lebreton.

[Vixx]

Just going to throw my two cents here since this has become one of the city's top issues.

The team is not going anywhere, if anything, Melnyk will either bring in a partner(s) or outright sell the team to someone who sees the opportunity Lebreton would bring. I hope he sells the team; his reputation has been tarnished here for a long time and the Sens have done well in spite of Melnyk, not because of him. Just imagine if we had a larger front office, with more scouts and people working behind the scenes to make the experience at games more fun? It would invigorate the Sens brand, which has this tired feel to it.

I speculate that there's been a stalemate between Melnyk, the city and the NCC (soil remediation? who knows) and with Melnyk's already bleak financial situation, is trying to drum up talk and throw a Hail Mary that he get some sort of sweet heart deal like Katz did in Edmonton. I have no doubt that Lebreton will get pushed through and will become a fantastic project, but I'm starting to worry about the timeline. What had optimistically looked like a 5 year timeline to get things rolling is starting to look like 7-10 years to get the ball rolling if a new owner, partner or whatever comes in and the details are hashed out between all parties. If that happens, everyone may have to go back to the drawing board because of new conditions, expectations and market conditions.

[LeadingEdgeBoomer]

I speculate that there's been a stalemate between Melnyk, the city and the NCC (soil remediation? who knows) and with Melnyk's already bleak financial situation,

Bruce Firestone ,one of the original owners, did an interview with Mark Sutcliffe on News1310 this morning . Firestone said that in his circle the rumour is that the Rendezvous Group wants a land lease deal from the NCC, while the NCC wants a pile of money up front for the land.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

if these transit lines can move 11,000 phpd on opening day, they will certainly be able to fill up and flush a 17,000-18,000 seat arena in a few hours (not to mention a lot of people will come in earlier or leave later to eat out compared to Kanata).

It's pphpd, which is passengers per hour per direction but that is for the Confederation Line only. The Trillium line will have a capacity of about 2700 pphpd after Stage 2 (which will be complete for the line before the arena opens). So the total capacity leaving the arena will be 11,000 x 2 + 2700 = 24,700 pph. To help with the southbound traffic, they could probably do something like run two trains south for every train north to temporarily after the game increase capacity (obviously requiring a layover track at Bayview to stockpile a few trains).