LeBreton Flats 2.0 (RendezVous LeBreton) | Cancelled

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by acottawa

In most of those cases the threat of relocation was dropped once local taxpayers agreed to pony up for a new arena, so I wouldn't say that the NHL was going above and beyond. The only case where the league has gone above and beyond is Arizona, where it even bought the team (a strategy that has been mysterious to most observers).

In this scenario the NHL absolutely wins. The team stays, the team doesn't pay (a lot) for a new arena, and franchise valuations are stable due to teams staying put (or increasing based on arena ownership setup). The NHL is willing to go above and beyond and has for more than just Arizona - particularly when Ottawa went bankrupt and when the Sabres owners were removed and the team remained ownerless for two seasons.

The NHL could have moved Buffalo, and to a lesser extent Ottawa, quite easily but went above and beyond to ensure they stayed in their markets.

Originally Posted by roger1818

I can think of one more:

The Arena Location Sucks Having an arena in the far west end and not near any of the bridges to Quebec seriously limits their access to fans. I would argue that only 1/4 of the region's population are within a reasonable distance of the Arena for attending games regularly. Even if they loose all of their Kanata fans, the upside potential of a much larger potential market will mean short term pain for long term gain. Any owner would benefit from this.

This is THE #1 reason for attendance issues. You put a new arena in Lebreton and the team's visibility increases tenfold and going to the arena for games doesn't become this massive hassle. There are three teams in the NHL that have non-urban arenas and they are Ottawa, Arizona, and Florida - what do we all think those three franchises have in common?

[daud]

the rumour mill keeps popping up the name Desmarais. Sometimes with Laliberte, sometimes with Jeff Hunt (though I don't think Jeff Hunt by himself has any real skin to invest-his partners certainly do). RDS has some commentary about Melnyk not having the capital to move forward currently and that this is where Desmarais and Laliberte may step in. Other blogs mention Desmarais with Jeff Hunt and then of course you have Liam McGuire's blog that said the sale was all but done.

I think change of some sort is in the air; I suspect at a minimum Melnyk will have to take on a partner but eventually, I hope he leaves. He is toxic.

This whole #melnykout thing is still going strong and attendance yesterday while, likely won't be repeated for the bruins game is a problem that is not going away. I don't know if it is having any impact on his decision though-he appears to be a very stubborn man.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by JHikka

In this scenario the NHL absolutely wins. The team stays, the team doesn't pay (a lot) for a new arena, and franchise valuations are stable due to teams staying put (or increasing based on arena ownership setup). The NHL is willing to go above and beyond and has for more than just Arizona - particularly when Ottawa went bankrupt and when the Sabres owners were removed and the team remained ownerless for two seasons.

The NHL could have moved Buffalo, and to a lesser extent Ottawa, quite easily but went above and beyond to ensure they stayed in their markets.

So your definition of "above and beyond" is "wait and see"?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

I can think of one more:

The Arena Location Sucks Having an arena in the far west end and not near any of the bridges to Quebec seriously limits their access to fans. I would argue that only 1/4 of the region's population are within a reasonable distance of the Arena for attending games regularly. Even if they loose all of their Kanata fans, the upside potential of a much larger potential market will mean short term pain for long term gain. Any owner would benefit from this.

I certainly agree the arena location sucks, although I wonder if that matters if none of the other problems are solved.

The Lebreton arena is probably somewhere in the high nine digits (payment to NCC, cleanup, infrastructure, the actual arena) plus a need to write down the CTC (which will probably be sold for land value) and give up parking revenue. There will be development revenue, but with the retail, office and condo markets pretty quiet these days these are likely longer-term revenues. As far as I know the only small market team to build an arena without public funds was Ottawa, and the debt from the arena bankrupted the team (and cost the banks big time) so I'm not sure the banks will finance another arena project.

Are any of the rumoured out-of-town billionaire saviours willing to put that kind of money in the hopes that fans will completely change their behaviour if the arena is downtown?

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The Lebreton arena is probably somewhere in the high nine digits (payment to NCC, cleanup, infrastructure, the actual arena)

If the developer is on the hook for the cleanup costs, the development is a non starter, regardless of who does it. The NCC (and to a much lesser extent the city) should be on the hook for those costs as they are the ones who let the land become contaminated in the first place.

plus a need to write down the CTC (which will probably be sold for land value)

Melnyk claims that he has plans to repurpose the CTC and develop the land around it, but hasn't disclosed to anyone how. If he is short on cash, he may end up having to sell it though.

and give up parking revenue.

That will certainly be a big loss for the team. If he retains ownership of the commercial space nearby, he could recoup that loss with rental income.

As far as I know the only small market team to build an arena without public funds was Ottawa, and the debt from the arena bankrupted the team (and cost the banks big time) so I'm not sure the banks will finance another arena project.

True, but there are significant differences between the projects. The Paladium project was to build what amounts to a single purpose venue surrounded by nothing but a massive parking lot. When there are no events, the land remains largely vacant.

The RLG plan is to build an entire community with the arena as a major attraction, but not the only attraction. The idea is to diversify enough to have the community remain active even when there are no events. This diversification should make the development more attractive to investors. Of course, only time will tell.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

The RLG plan is to build an entire community with the arena as a major attraction, but not the only attraction. The idea is to diversify enough to have the community remain active even when there are no events. This diversification should make the development more attractive to investors. Of course, only time will tell.

Yes, but over a fairly long term. Even a successful condo, office or rental project rarely opens more than one building/tower every few years in Ottawa.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by acottawa

So your definition of "above and beyond" is "wait and see"?

My definition of above and beyond is not moving the team at the very first instance of something bad happening. If the NHL reacted that way half the league would have relocated in the past twenty years, including Ottawa.

[YOWflier]

Originally Posted by acottawa

In most of those cases the threat of relocation was dropped once local taxpayers agreed to pony up for a new arena, so I wouldn't say that the NHL was going above and beyond. The only case where the league has gone above and beyond is Arizona, where it even bought the team (a strategy that has been mysterious to most observers).

The thing is there are only really 4 things the league could conclude looking at the current situation.

Melnyk is cooking the books (the phil235 theory). The team is actually profitable but Melnyk has been bleeding the team for other ventures. If this was the case then the league has no incentive to allow a relocation (and every incentive to push him out).

Melnyk is not spending enough (the ac888yow theory). The team is not profitable, but if Melnyk put a lot more money into the team the fans would come back and it would be profitable. If this is the case the league needs to determine whether any of the mystery buyers are willing to make such an investment. Otherwise relocation would probably still be on the table.

Melnyk is incompetent (this seems to be the prevailing theory among the twitter fanboys). The team should be profitable given the Ottawa market conditions, but Melnyk has fired/hired the wrong people, or forced the team management to do the wrong things. If this is the case then the league has to decide whether any of the mystery buyers would be more competent, otherwise it would have to facilitate the sale to an out of town buyer or take over the team (as they did in Arizona).

This is an Ottawa problem Given the small private sector, small market, frugal public servants, the small hinterland, etc. it is not possible to have a profitable hockey team in Ottawa. The league then needs to determine a) whether local government is willing to kick in to keep the team (as they did for the redblacks and most small-market NHL cities have done) or b) whether one of the mystery owners is willing to accept indefinite loses (as a loss leader for something else, perhaps). If neither of these are the case then relocation is probably likely at some point.

I don't agree with my statements being summarized so simplistically. In fact it's more like "much of the above" to varying degrees.

[phil235]

Not sure that the loss of parking revenue is really that significant. With the arena in the middle of nowhere so the vast majority of people drive, parking is really part of the cost of a ticket. At $20 a pop, that probably amounts to something like $6-10 per ticket on average (assuming 2-3 people per car). Deduct from that the cost of staffing and maintaining the lots, police doing traffic control etc., plus the tax they pay on the land.

I have no doubt the that team intends to raise the average ticket price by at least that amount when they move downtown. I also expect that they will have some parking for suite holders etc., which will undoubtedly be more expensive, so they can probably offset some of the loss that way.

[J.OT13]

Ottawa is a solid market, and the NHL knows this. They know that a downtown arena would be a game changer and that's why they are pushing for it. They know that with LeBreton, Ottawa can be in the top 10 franchises in terms of profitability. But Melnyk's rant on Friday is putting the whole LeBreton deal at risk. If anything, he just gave the NHL reason to push him out as the owner.

[dougvdh]

Originally Posted by roger1818

I can think of one more:

The Arena Location Sucks Having an arena in the far west end and not near any of the bridges to Quebec seriously limits their access to fans. I would argue that only 1/4 of the region's population are within a reasonable distance of the Arena for attending games regularly. Even if they loose all of their Kanata fans, the upside potential of a much larger potential market will mean short term pain for long term gain. Any owner would benefit from this.

And they're not going to lose mass number of Kanata fans by going downtown. Literally no one lives in Kanata because they don't like driving or traffic - more than half of them drive downtown on a daily basis anyways - staying downtown for the evening to catch a game doesn't add anymore driving to the hundreds of hours they'll spend in a car every year.

[Jamaican-Phoenix]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

...But Melnyk's rant on Friday is putting the whole LeBreton deal at risk. If anything, he just gave the NHL reason to push him out as the owner.

Expect a fight. I seem to recall him a while ago hinting that maybe he "gifts" the Sens to his daughter or something like that.

Sidenote: Wouldn't it be funny if this is how Jim Balsillie got a hockey team?

[bikegypsy]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Yes, but over a fairly long term. Even a successful condo, office or rental project rarely opens more than one building/tower every few years in Ottawa.

Your assessment doesn't reflect what Ottawa-Gatineau has been experiencing during the past decade in terms of condo construction. Besides, there isn't much space left in the CBD for any more development unless demolition is involved. Downtown Ottawa will simply begin pushing westwards over the next decade, which is pretty much the timespan we're looking at here. As a side note, babyboomers have just begun retiring and make up a huge chunk of the work force.

[daud]

According to Liam McGuires latest blog, an offer was made already to purchase the senators for 600 million and that as many as 3 parties are interested in buying. The other tidbit that keeps resurfacing is that Melnyk just doesn’t have the cash flow to execute this lebreton project. In light of all this his commentary last week is a lot more comprehensible. He’s wrestling with his current position, seems to want to hang on but ultimately he probably can’t. Lebreton is just too big a project for him. Hence the maybe we stay in Kanata...

Ultimately the sens are moving to lebreton likely without him. He’ll close the deal then sell the team by summer or even sooner.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wheelin-w...ow-up-rebuttal-liam-maguire/?published=t

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by bikegypsy

Your assessment doesn't reflect what Ottawa-Gatineau has been experiencing during the past decade in terms of condo construction. Besides, there isn't much space left in the CBD for any more development unless demolition is involved. Downtown Ottawa will simply begin pushing westwards over the next decade, which is pretty much the timespan we're looking at here. As a side note, babyboomers have just begun retiring and make up a huge chunk of the work force.

Not counting little boutique projects, about 1 per year over the last decade on average? And this forum is full of proposals that have not put a shovel into the ground. And major condo developers are sitting on downtown sites.

[daud]

Here's the thrust of the updated info (after the initial post that they had been sold) on the Senators from Liam McGuire's blog:

"I felt a need to have a bit of a rebuttal after last weeks explosion and public commentary with my name so here goes;

There are as many as three groups interested in buying the Sens. Will Melnyk sell, don't know. One of the groups allegedly has put forth an offer of 600M. Would he take that if it were true, don't know. Will he be forced to sell at some point as per the information I received last week, yes, that's my opinion. Speculation and information that is continually being leaked suggests he will have to sell. But, who knows for sure. Definitely the sales talk and his refuting of it led to his dissertation from Parliament Hill Friday night at the very successful alumni game. And those comments were ridiculous. "

[acottawa]

Local bar owner sharing what he "heard" seems like a good source.

I'm waiting for an actual journalist to identify actual interested buyers.

[daud]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Local bar owner sharing what he "heard" seems like a good source.

I'm waiting for an actual journalist to identify actual interested buyers.

Local Bar owner yes... And Hockey author, hockey historian, hockey radio host. All round fairly well connected person in Ottawa hockey circles.


"Liam Maguire has 36 years experience as a host, emcee and keynote speaker. He is a three time published author. His last book, titled, ' Next Goal Wins!' was published by Random House and the forward was written by Wayne Gretzky. It was the most comprehensive book of hockey anecdotes, history, trivia and stats ever printed.
He has made more than 2500 public appearances all across Canada and the US and has appeared on every Canadian national radio and TV show including Hockey Night in Canada.
Specialties: Liam is regarded as the worlds number one NHL historian. He has worked with more than three dozen hockey Hall of Fame members at numerous functions, fundraisers, dinners and charities."

Trust me, we're all waiting for actual news. But in the meantime, there are a number of sources pushing alot of smoke about this..

Here's another source suggesting Guy Laliberte and Daniel Alfreddson are involved:

https://senshot.com/2017/11/28/ottawa-senators-change-ownership/

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by daud

Local Bar owner yes... And Hockey author, hockey historian, hockey radio host. All round fairly well connected person in Ottawa hockey circles.


"Liam Maguire has 36 years experience as a host, emcee and keynote speaker. He is a three time published author. His last book, titled, ' Next Goal Wins!' was published by Random House and the forward was written by Wayne Gretzky. It was the most comprehensive book of hockey anecdotes, history, trivia and stats ever printed.
He has made more than 2500 public appearances all across Canada and the US and has appeared on every Canadian national radio and TV show including Hockey Night in Canada.
Specialties: Liam is regarded as the worlds number one NHL historian. He has worked with more than three dozen hockey Hall of Fame members at numerous functions, fundraisers, dinners and charities."

Trust me, we're all waiting for actual news. But in the meantime, there are a number of sources pushing alot of smoke about this..

Here's another source suggesting Guy Laliberte and Daniel Alfreddson are involved:

https://senshot.com/2017/11/28/ottawa-senators-change-ownership/

Yes, he's a well known author and trivia expert (I think he ran for city council a few years ago as well). But either a) somebody with detailed information has specifically leaked it, in which case you wouldn't expect all of the caveats (and there would probably be some evidence to back up his claim that the team had been sold) or b) we should take him at his word that he is just sharing things he has heard which may or not be true.

I tend to doubt that a $600M offer has been made (at least not from an organization looking to keep the team in Ottawa). There are very few individuals/companies with an interest in hockey that could come up with that kind of money, and most of them already own hockey teams. This would be a particularity risky offer without having access to the SSE books and any information about the negotiations over the flats.

[rocketphish]

Original Sens owner Bruce Firestone sees LeBreton — and Ottawa — in team's future

Wayne Scanlan, Ottawa Citizen
Published on: December 20, 2017 | Last Updated: December 20, 2017 6:41 PM EST

NHL hockey at LeBreton Flats is close enough to reality for fans to imagine the possibilities.

Bruce Firestone, the original Senators owner, imagined it, too, back in 1987. He recalls a conversation with the late Jean Pigott, then-chair of the National Capital Commission, going something like this when he inquired about putting an NHL rink on NCC lands. (First, of course, he would have to acquire an NHL franchise).

“Bruce, do you want the public or private answer?” Firestone recalls Pigott saying.

“Are they different, Jean?”

“Yes.”

“What’s the private answer?”

“No.”

To the NCC at that time, a rink was just a rink. LeBreton would be reserved for something more noble, such as a major museum or a Supreme Court of Canada building.

“So, what’s the public answer?” Firestone wondered.

The public answer, Pigott told him, was “We’ll agree to study it.”

And she added, “Bruce, we’ll study it until you give up and go away, or you die, whichever comes first.”

These were the days when Firestone, and others, figured the NCC was an acronym for the No Commitment Club, as proposal after proposal was either rejected outright or put off for “study.”

Times change. The NCC is open for business — ironically enough with a former Firestone hire, Marc Seaman, as the latest chairman. With Russ Mills at the helm, the NCC last year awarded development negotiation rights to the local RendezVous LeBreton group, which includes Trinity Development as a major player and Melnyk as owner of the Senators.

Over the weekend, a frustrated Melnyk, with financial challenges and a plethora of empty seats for NHL games at the CTC in Kanata, was muttering about the possibly of going to a different location in the region, not necessarily LeBreton, perhaps even moving the team out of town in the event of a “disaster” with his current franchise.

Firestone instantly drew a parallel between this complex NCC negotiation and the Ontario Municipal Board hearings he experienced in 1991.

After three exhausting days on the stand, seeking approval to build an arena (Firestone had hoped for a major hotel as well) in Kanata, Firestone heard an Ogden Corp. representative named Doug Logan say to him — “Let’s blow this town.”

Ogden would happily take the Senators for its new building in Anaheim.

“You’ll love the beaches,” Logan said.

Of course, Firestone was committed to bringing the Senators back to Ottawa, not So-Cal. He and Cyril Leeder and Randy Sexton succeeded in doing just that. Twenty-five years after the Senators’ first game — at the tiny Civic Centre in 1992 — Firestone says he believes the team will stay here for years to come. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman reiterated on the weekend that a single owner can’t just pack up and move his club without full approval by the league board of governors.

But beyond that, to Firestone, a.k.a. Professor Bruce, a realtor and real estate investment coach, there is no need to relocate. He is wildly bullish on the local economy, pointing to a surging population approaching 1.4 million in Ottawa-Gatineau with 750,000 full-time jobs or the equivalent.

“And they are almost all hockey fans,” Firestone says. “I would put this market up against Tampa Bay, Carolina, Arizona or any of the other markets.”

Firestone considers the RendezVous LeBreton plan “world class,” as good as any proposed projects on the table in North America. He noted that in the Claridge Homes development of the government-owned Daly Building site into an upscale condominium 12 years ago, Claridge didn’t buy the land, but agreed to a long-term land rental agreement, the costs of which were covered by the condo unit fees.

At LeBreton, a land rental agreement is not up for discussion. The clear direction is that the NCC will sell as much as 21 hectares of property for development.

Until there is an agreement on financing, ideally in time for the NCC meeting in late January, the proposal and the hockey club are in an awkward holding pattern.

The sooner the green light signals on the LeBreton deal, the sooner the Senators will be able to do business with major corporate partners. If fans are mentally moving past Kanata to the next big thing — a downtown arena, businesses are certainly sitting on their money. Why invest in yesterday’s news?

Once LeBreton announces financing in place, and an arena construction schedule, corporations can do deals with the Senators even before they move downtown — wraparound agreements that would start in Kanata, then go with the club to LeBreton.

“The Senators are in the entertainment business, and entertainment is all about what is new,” says Firestone, who can’t help but wonder what Jean Pigott would make of it all.

“Jean might be up there in heaven, shaking her finger at me, but I do think the NCC has a willingness to make RendezVous LeBreton possible. I believe that.

“But they have to come to an agreement.”

[email protected]
twitter.com/hockeyscanner

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news...sees-lebreton-and-ottawa-in-teams-future