Quote:
Originally Posted by acottawa
One would think that even if they didn't have the money for expensive things like computer models and geotechnical studies they would be pouring over datasets that are available to the public
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On that note, in the past hour StatsCan released the 2016 census data for "Journey to Work".
All the tables can be found at the following link. I haven't had any opportunity to do any analysis yet, but will try to compile some data later today.
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recens...ral=2017&THEME=125&VID=0&VNAMEE=&VNAMEF=
Ongoing edits:
Just as an example. In Ottawa approximately 354 thousand people commute (not including bikers or walkers). Of those only about 86 thousand used public transit. That's
less than 1 in 4 in a metropolitan area that has a half decent transit system. For the most part, people can walk to a bus station, in peak periods the bus shows up every 15-20 minutes, and in off-peak hours it's about every 30 minutes.
Now imagine what the uptake of a train would be from a rural area where service is provided only every hour.
If we can only get 1 in 4 to take public transit in Ottawa, then I would suggest that 1 in 8 or even 1 in 10 is a more likely scenario. However, to give the benefit of the doubt we could use a figure like 1 in 5.
Smith Falls: 440 people in Smith Falls indicated that they commute to Ottawa daily.
Using the 1 in 5 figure, that would mean that a best case scenario would be
88 people using the train.
From the Pontiac (eg: Bristol): 925 people indicated that they work in Ottawa (I haven't included the ones who work in Gatineau because it doesn't make sense to take a train to Ontario, through Ottawa, only to go back to Gatineau.
Using the 1 in 5 figure we would get
185 passengers.
From North Glengarry (Alexandria leg): 325 people work in Ottawa.
Using 1 in 5 we would get
65 passengers.
From Arnprior: 1370 total commuters to Ottawa and Gatineau. Under the current assumptions that would equate to
274 passengers.
I would welcome any of your input as to what figure is most realistic in your opinion. Given an hourly service from these communities, would you expect 1 in 5, 1 in 8, 1 in 10, etc to actually use the train.
Note that I'm not including anyone who commutes internally within Ottawa or Gatineau as I see no net benefit of simply taking someone off the O-train or Rapibus and putting them on the MOOSE train.
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