Amazon HQ2

[brando]

Originally Posted by Novacek

So if city A has 100k appropriately trained and educated workers, and city B has the exact same workers, but they work for 1000 different companies, city A is automatically better?

This is the fundamental problem with the way you are looking at this. City B has more companies and more workers. That's the point. Austin does not have as many trained professionals as these other cities in a large part because there aren't as many jobs requiring trained professionals.

When Amazon says, "Metro Size will be an important factor" they mean that in a general sense that they want to be in a bigger city. They don't mean, "Any advantage that a city has in any area will be weighed down because the advantage is due in part because they have a larger metro area."

They aren't requiring huge metros but they aren't going to be issuing handicaps if bigger cities score better in different metrics.

You and I are not making any progress here. I can go back and respond to your last post bit by bit if you would appreciate that but we should pick this up when we hear the next bit of news. If Austin is in that list of cities that Amazon starts negotiating with then I will gladly admit I must have been wrong about some things. I hope you can do the same if Austin doesn't make the cut.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by brando

This is the fundamental problem with the way you are looking at this. City B has more companies and more workers. That's the point. Austin does not have as many trained professionals as these other cities in a large part because there aren't as many jobs requiring trained professionals.

So you agree that it's the number of qualified people/workers that matters, the number of fortune 500 companies is meaningless?

Originally Posted by brando

When Amazon says, "Metro Size will be an important factor" they mean that in a general sense.

Except they _don't_ say that.

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon....516043504_.pdf

They have to fill 50k jobs in _15 years_. The fact that city A has 10X that many workers and city B has 50x that many workers, both meet the requirements.

Originally Posted by brando

They aren't requiring huge metros but they aren't going to be issuing handicaps if bigger cities score better in different metrics.

We don't know what Amazon's metrics are, or how they're weighted. My issue is with the Journal, which is basically turning non-news into news, by creating a "measure" which basically ends up being a pure population measure.

And we don't know Amazon's decision tree, but we know it won't just be that.

[Novacek]

Funnily enough, reading through this again

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon....516043504_.pdf


If you want to get really pedantic, it could be read as eliminating both DC and NYC.

Because DC doesn't have flights to DC and NYC doesn't have flights to NYC.

[chinchaaa]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Funnily enough, reading through this again

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon....516043504_.pdf


If you want to get really pedantic, it could be read as eliminating both DC and NYC.

Because DC doesn't have flights to DC and NYC doesn't have flights to NYC.

Yes, they do.

http://flightaware.com/live/findflig...estination=ZNY

Plus the dozens of trains that operate on a daily basis which are faster than planes.

[chinchaaa]

Originally Posted by chinchaaa

Yes, they do.

http://flightaware.com/live/findflig...estination=ZNY

Plus the dozens of trains that operate on a daily basis which are faster than planes.

Ignore me. I can't read after this long day.

[Atlanta3000]

I am not trying to come onto an Austin sub-forum and talk up Atlanta, but I thought some of you find the data points in this article interesting. Note this article is from the Dallas Business Journal - not the Atlanta Business Chronicle.

Amazon HQ2 search: Dallas blows Austin away on this metric
Shawn Shinneman
By Staff Writer, Dallas Business Journal

Oct 11, 2017, 1:24pm CDT

Dallas-Fort Worth is home to about 161,000 tech workers, including 49,000 software developers and programmers, according to CBRE’s 2017 Tech Talentreport.

A non-comprehensive list of HQ2 contenders might include Atlanta (122,810 tech workers), Austin (68,810), Boston (115,560), Denver (77,310), and Washington D.C. (243,360), in addition to DFW. Of those, only Washington D.C. boasts a larger tech workforce, but the nation’s capital is also the slowest growing hub on the list. It lost 2 percent of its software developers last year.

From a talent perspective, high-tech Austin appears an underdog. Even with a well-earned reputation as a tech hub, the state capital appears to lack the tech population to stand up a company of Amazon’s size. The everything-seller is as much a logistics company as anything, but it’s built on technology; HQ2 will be loaded with software developers and programmers.

Amazon will have to lean on transplants no matter where it settles, however, and most of DFW’s assumed competitors perform better when it comes to attracting millennials. From 2010 to 2015, Atlanta grew its millennial population by 9.3 percent, Denver by 7 percent, Washington D.C. by 5.9 percent and Austin by 5.5 percent. Dallas grew by 3.8 percent while Boston grew by 0.8 percent, according to CBRE.

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

Dallas-Fort Worth is home to about 161,000 tech workers, including 49,000 software developers and programmers, according to CBRE’s 2017 Tech Talentreport.

I haven't looked at the article. I don't know the raw numbers. But this highlights another point I was previously making. In most studies, it seems that the majority of what they refer to as "tech workers" aren't software engineers. In addition, not all software engineers are talented software engineers. The top engineers generally choose to be in Austin over Dallas and Atlanta.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

I am not trying to come onto an Austin sub-forum and talk up Atlanta, but I thought some of you find the data points in this article interesting. Note this article is from the Dallas Business Journal - not the Atlanta Business Chronicle.

Amazon HQ2 search: Dallas blows Austin away on this metric
Shawn Shinneman
By Staff Writer, Dallas Business Journal

Oct 11, 2017, 1:24pm CDT

Link?

It's an interesting datapoint, and it certainly doesn't hurt Atlanta or Dallas.

I don't think it necessarily points to DC. I'm assuming Amazon isn't willing to pay those developers the premiums they're currently getting for security clearances.


Though again, the number that matters more isn't the workforce in Austin _today_, its the workforce in Austin 15 years from now (and later) when Amazon actually is hiring (maybe) those 50k (and when Austin is 50% larger than it is now).

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

From 2010 to 2015, Atlanta grew its millennial population by 9.3 percent, Denver by 7 percent, Washington D.C. by 5.9 percent and Austin by 5.5 percent. Dallas grew by 3.8 percent while Boston grew by 0.8 percent, according to CBRE.

Something is massively wrong with this.


this says 28% just 2010-2013

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottbe.../#6eb9bea77c57

While this says #3 2005-2015

https://austin.curbed.com/2016/11/15...n-growth-large


I'm doing more research now. It just smells wrong for Austin's "millenial growth" to be 1/4 its total growth rate.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Link?

It's an interesting datapoint, and it certainly doesn't hurt Atlanta or Dallas.

I don't think it necessarily points to DC. I'm assuming Amazon isn't willing to pay those developers the premiums they're currently getting for security clearances.


Though again, the number that matters more isn't the workforce in Austin _today_, its the workforce in Austin 15 years from now (and later) when Amazon actually is hiring (maybe) those 50k (and when Austin is 50% larger than it is now).

I posted this article in the Atlanta HQ2 sub-forum, but forgot to link the article in my post. I just tried to search for it on Google and the Dallas Business Journal website and it is nowhere to be found - weird. (see link at the bottom to reference my original post).

The bottom line is Amazon knows the city selected for their HQ2 will see a tremendous economic stimulus from their decision. Conversely, they also know it will have negative impacts on this city's labor, transportation and housing markets. Amazon has to strike a balance by selecting a city that meets their stated criteria and at the same time limiting the negative impacts. I am not expert on this subject, but I think if Amazon chooses Austin it would completely disrupt the technology start-up culture that has attracted so many people and companies to this city. Think about how difficult it would be for start-ups to recruit candidates and compete for talent against Amazon. Then add on the impacts of increased housing prices, tax payers having to fund mass transit and airport improvement and Amazon would be setting themselves up for a PR nightmare, in my opinion. Just read the comment sections on the Seattle Times from citizens who would rather see Amazon leave Seattle altogether.

By the way, in the Atlanta sub-forum we have tracked 4 cities that signed non-disclosures with Amazon prior to them issuing the RFP. The list includes: Atlanta, Kansas City, St. Louis and Louisville (I know - WTF?). Do you know if Austin signed a non-disclosure with Amazon?

Best of luck to Austin either way. I love your city!

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/show...4&postcount=45

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Something is massively wrong with this.


this says 28% just 2010-2013

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottbe.../#6eb9bea77c57

While this says #3 2005-2015

https://austin.curbed.com/2016/11/15...n-growth-large


I'm doing more research now. It just smells wrong for Austin's "millenial growth" to be 1/4 its total growth rate.

This is consistent with national averages:

JUNE 25, 2015 — Millennials, or America's youth born between 1982 and 2000, now number 83.1 million and represent more than one quarter of the nation's population. Their size exceeds that of the 75.4 million baby boomers, according to new U.S. Census Bureau estimates released today.Jun 25, 2015

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

Just read the comment sections on the Seattle Times from citizens who would rather see Amazon leave Seattle altogether.

Amazon has had an impact in Seattle, for sure. However, I can't help but think that it's impact there is often overstated. It's not like Seattle is/was a small city.

I just wonder how much of it is reality in comparison to how much Amazon has become the scapegoat for some of Seattle's issues. It reminds me of how so many in Austin use Californians as a scapegoat here...even though most of the people moving to Austin come from other parts of Texas, not California.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

I am not expert on this subject, but I think if Amazon chooses Austin it would completely disrupt the technology start-up culture that has attracted so many people and companies to this city. Think about how difficult it would be for start-ups to recruit candidates and compete for talent against Amazon.

Except they'll have to recruit against them no matter what city is selected, as recruits are mobile. They already have to recruit against them for HQ1 (and apple, and microsoft, ...)

But if they're in Austin, then startups that spin out from Amazon are more likely to stay in Austin. Having large employers only helps the startup scene (see SF and SV).

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

Then add on the impacts of increased housing prices, tax payers having to fund mass transit and airport improvement and Amazon would be setting themselves up for a PR nightmare, in my opinion.

50k jobs over 15 years is trivial percentage of Austin's overall growth. It's not going to move the needle on housing costs.

plus you contradict yourself, since apparently those 50k jobs would be offset by a bunch of startup jobs that wouldn't come here.

Mass transit needs to be done anyway (and adding transit to one site is nothing compared to Austin's already existing overall need). Airport expansion is happening regardless (and is out of a separate budget).

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

By the way, in the Atlanta sub-forum we have tracked 4 cities that signed non-disclosures with Amazon prior to them issuing the RFP. The list includes: Atlanta, Kansas City, St. Louis and Louisville (I know - WTF?). Do you know if Austin signed a non-disclosure with Amazon?

I don't. But if they had, I suspect it would have occurred during one of the closed council sessions that we wouldn't hear about anyway.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

This is consistent with national averages:

That's overall proportions, not growth rate.


for instance, both men and women are about 1/2 the total population. But the growth rate for men isn't 1/2 the growth rate for women or vice versa.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

By the way, in the Atlanta sub-forum we have tracked 4 cities that signed non-disclosures with Amazon prior to them issuing the RFP. The list includes: Atlanta, Kansas City, St. Louis and Louisville (I know - WTF?). Do you know if Austin signed a non-disclosure with Amazon?

Are you sure the non-disclosures were signed before the RFP was issued? I only got as far as googling Louisville and St. Louis, but neither of those was specific as to that detail.

The other question is who initiated the non-disclosure. It seems very likely that bids may include proprietary information _from_ the city, or from landowners.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Are you sure the non-disclosures were signed before the RFP was issued? I only got as far as googling Louisville and St. Louis, but neither of those was specific as to that detail.

The other question is who initiated the non-disclosure. It seems very likely that bids may include proprietary information _from_ the city, or from landowners.

Oct 30, 2017 · The state's official bid is shrouded in secrecy, and Croteau said he and others are under non-disclosure agreements with Amazon.

http://www.ajc.com/news/local/georgi...84WuO/amp.html

Boosters in Louisville, Kentucky, citing a nondisclosure agreement with the company, told reporters they were not able to release any details of a bid. Kansas City officials made the same claim. So did St. Louis.

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...but-many-wont/

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

http://www.ajc.com/news/local/georgi...84WuO/amp.html




https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...but-many-wont/

Right, but all of that is well after the RFP was released. Doesn't seem like there was a "select few" before the RFP as you implied.

In fact, your second link seems to contradict that as well

"Amazon, for its part, denies it has made any such requests for secrecy. A spokesman for the company says cities are free to share any details they would like to about their own bids. (Although the company has pledged to hold city bids as confidential if the submitter prefers.)

Amazon has sent some interested bidders nondisclosure agreements, according to several cities that have received them. But those agreements, Amazon and some of the cities say, bars release of corporate information that the company has provided to them, such as specific workforce projections, but doesn’t pertain to the city’s own activities or bid information."

[We vs us]

An NDA would go a long way towards explaining how quiet our council and mayor have been about our bid as well.

[paul78701]

I'm not sure if this has been posted previously. But since the subject came up...

Texas Cities Won’t Disclose How Much Taxpayer Money They’ve Offered Amazon:
https://www.texasmonthly.com/the-dai...axpayer-texas/

[undergroundman]

http://kut.org/post/austin-waits-wor...at-was-offered

While Amazon has been very public about its process of finding a location for a second headquarters, it has asked Austin and the other 100-plus bidders to keep quiet about their proposals.

The tech giant explicitly asked that submissions be "confidential.”