PHILADELPHIA | Highrise Development Thread IX

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by Londonee

It's beyond stupid. The fact that car driving = "transit" to this schmohawk is almost an immediate DQ.

According to this metric: Los Angeles - a city not really even trying for the bid for a variety of reasons, mostly b/c of the logical fact that Amazon will probably want an East Coast foot print;

Then, Phoenix - a city with 1 bad school (sorry ASU) and almost ZERO public transit - also located in both the PST and MWT zones which, again, would almost immediately disqualify it;

And, finally, Tampa - I mean, do I even need to explain - are the top qualifiers?

This is like when ESPN developed the QBR stat - significant time and investment to develop a stat for comparative purposes - and then when the numbers spit out you have guys like Matt Schaub finishing above Tom Brady. If that's the case then it's time to rethink your methodology. There's just a common sense test - that this thing fails.

No, it isn't. The analysis is flawed, but did you read the RFP? Amazon specifically asks cities to address traffic during rush hour. Many employees in Seattle walk or bike to work, but many also drive from suburbs or elsewhere. And the same will be true in Philly. It may not be a significant factor, and I think the article doesn't properly weight anything, but it's not inappropriate to consider it.

[1487]

Originally Posted by Boku

Is it me or does none of this make sense?

Yo, Philly! We crunched the numbers and we’re not Amazon’s prime location

these articles are getting annoying.

[thisisforreal]

Originally Posted by Londonee

...This is like when ESPN developed the QBR stat - significant time and investment to develop a stat for comparative purposes - and then when the numbers spit out you have guys like Matt Schaub finishing above Tom Brady. If that's the case then it's time to rethink your methodology. There's just a common sense test - that this thing fails.

Fun Fact: ESPN had to manually create a filter to weed out Charlie Batch having the greatest single game QBR of all-time (in that oh so memorable 2-pick, 186 yard game against the Bucs).

Back on topic - that was one of the most frustrating articles I've ever read. If your blood pressure is higher, just remember the author is part of the Murray Gell-Mann Amnesia Affect.

[hammersklavier]

Originally Posted by 1487

8th and market is even larger than the front half of the Girard estate project and the NREA project includes reuse of three existing buildings over time. I'm not saying some sort of similar project couldn't work, I'm saying that whatever they proposed before was dependent on the casino being a generator of funds that could make the rest palatable. So I see no way they could just remove the casino and then move forward. Remember, Blatstein had same issue with the Inky HQ building. Once he lost a chance at license the building sat vacant with no real profitable use until the city bailed him out.

I would counter that Blatstein was shopping Inky as a boutique hotel during that time. Also that Broad and Callowhill is in a much less viable location for e.g. retail than 8th and Market it. As a turnkey project, Market8 would be well-placed to benefit from Market East's retail renaissance; the fact that Goldenburg hasn't put forward a new proposal for the site when the market's looking hot is quite frankly worrying.

I say Aramark isn't good for residential because a) it sitll has huge office component b)an office building lacks terraces and other design features that high end apt buildings typically have c) the existing tenants likely would be totally against partial conversion to residential units and C) once Aramark leaves they will have one of the largest blocks of contiguous space on the market in a market where there aren't many such blocks for large tenants. The liberty place condo conversion has been a modest success at best and it's one of the few (if not only) such projects of its kind in Philly where high end office was converted in a building that retains office functions.

You've mixed valid points and utter bullshit here. Yes, the fact that PWD and others still have office space in the building means it isn't going vacant; no, the success of office conversions like the Aria, the Icon, PMC's remodel of GSK, etc. means that your amenity concern is (at best) overblown; and finally your block size argument can actually go either way depending on how soft the office market is against the residential market.

Recall that 2 Lib got its resi conversion because the office market was too soft to get that giant block of space leased; recall also that the Aramark space will need infrastructural upgrades to be appealing to prospective tenants -- the building being older and all. And finally note that the Market East office market is one of the softest in the city, which'll make it difficult to lease out the Aramark space. It's also significant to point out that NREA is building a second resi tower based solely on strong leasing from the first one before it was even finished and PREIT is -- according to your own info -- looking to move forward on their own resi tower. All of this points to Market East's resi market being on fire compared to its office market, which suggests that a partial conversion is more likely than not.

[City Wide]

correct thread for this?

https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/mul...oving-the-most-multifamily-permits-79445

I'm surprised Philly isn't in the top ten. Am I missing something?

[iamrobk]

Originally Posted by 1487

these articles are getting annoying.

Honestly, everything Amazon is starting to get annoying to me. I think we're easily a top 10 contender, arguably top 5, but I just want everyone to shut up about it and let it play out. The city is trying hard and let's hope it works out, but let's not get ahead of ourselves or waste our time endlessly speculating about it...

[christof]

Originally Posted by 1487

these articles are getting annoying.

You see what Philly.com is posting, and you wonder exactly what their intent is...

[Mr Saturn64]

Originally Posted by Boku

Is it me or does none of this make sense?

Yo, Philly! We crunched the numbers and we’re not Amazon’s prime location

There's so much bullshit in that I don't even know where to begin.

I will say though, there is no frickin' way Philly has a higher crime rate than Chicago.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by Mr Saturn64

There's so much bullshit in that I don't even know where to begin.

I will say though, there is no frickin' way Philly has a higher crime rate than Chicago.

It doesn't. Chicago has a higher homicide rate, violent crime rate, and property crime rate than Philadelphia. It's crime rate is higher than Philadelphia's across the board. Yet it's constantly being stated as a top suitor for Amaxon HQ2?

So why would Philly not be a suitor then because of its crime rate? Makes no sense.

Furthermore, Atlanta, Miami and D.C. - all three of which have also been labeled as top suitors for Amazon - also have higher crime rates than Philadelphia.

Philly.com usually doesn't like facts. They like a fictional universe of Philly with fake "facts" that paint the city in whatever picture they're trying to create.

...like the fact that they claimed Median Household Income in Philadelphia declined between 2015 and 2016, and used some made up MHI number for 2015? Despite the fact that the MHI in Philadelphia INCREASED in Philadelphia between 2015 and 2016 from $41,233 to $41,449 according to the US Census Bureau. Yeah, did anybody else see that article? Hahah. It was called "Philadelphia is still the poorest city in America."

At least they're consistently bad with they're fake news. At least they're consistent...

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by iamrobk

Honestly, everything Amazon is starting to get annoying to me. I think we're easily a top 10 contender, arguably top 5, but I just want everyone to shut up about it and let it play out. The city is trying hard and let's hope it works out, but let's not get ahead of ourselves or waste our time endlessly speculating about it...

I agree with you, but it's a lost cause. It is going to dominate conversation on many threads, such as Schuylkill Yards, until there is a decision. I mean, there have been dozens of pages on some of these threads when lack of progress has continued for months on end and a development remains the same basic hole in the ground. So, when there is new info that actually sparks discussion on something, good luck...

[thisisforreal]

Article on the Divine Lorraine here with the excerpt below:

"The vacancy rate for Center City — the area between Girard and Washington Avenues, according to REIS — was 9.4 percent in the second quarter of 2017, nearly double the 4.9 percent rate from two years ago."

[1487]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

I would counter that Blatstein was shopping Inky as a boutique hotel during that time. Also that Broad and Callowhill is in a much less viable location for e.g. retail than 8th and Market it. As a turnkey project, Market8 would be well-placed to benefit from Market East's retail renaissance; the fact that Goldenburg hasn't put forward a new proposal for the site when the market's looking hot is quite frankly worrying.

You've mixed valid points and utter bullshit here. Yes, the fact that PWD and others still have office space in the building means it isn't going vacant; no, the success of office conversions like the Aria, the Icon, PMC's remodel of GSK, etc. means that your amenity concern is (at best) overblown; and finally your block size argument can actually go either way depending on how soft the office market is against the residential market.

Recall that 2 Lib got its resi conversion because the office market was too soft to get that giant block of space leased; recall also that the Aramark space will need infrastructural upgrades to be appealing to prospective tenants -- the building being older and all. And finally note that the Market East office market is one of the softest in the city, which'll make it difficult to lease out the Aramark space. It's also significant to point out that NREA is building a second resi tower based solely on strong leasing from the first one before it was even finished and PREIT is -- according to your own info -- looking to move forward on their own resi tower. All of this points to Market East's resi market being on fire compared to its office market, which suggests that a partial conversion is more likely than not.

since you got it all figured out why don't you tell Goldenberg to get moving. Obviously it's an easy site to develop- perhaps they just don't know this yet. They are just keeping as a parking lot because they love asphalt apparently.

vacany in east market isn't even that low and the rents they are getting for the East Market conversion are actually high- which means that owners of Aramark should like their chances of filing that space. BUt sure- it's going to be apts. Whatever.

[Larry King]

Doubt we see anything at market8 for a bit. I believe the ownership structure is pretty complicated and isn't there still litigation regarding the casino license?

[eixample]

Originally Posted by Larry King

Doubt we see anything at market8 for a bit. I believe the ownership structure is pretty complicated and isn't there still litigation regarding the casino license?

Apparently its not done...Goldenberg is asking the Supreme Court to send it back to the Gaming Commission again.

http://www.philly.com/philly/business/to...emands-20170913.html?amphtml=y&mobi=true

Ken Goldenberg, whose Market East group sought to build a casino at Eighth and Market Streets, told the main investor at SugarHouse Casino that he would pursue yet another Pennsylvania Supreme Court appeal if SugarHouse financed it, according to an email that is part of SugarHouse’s latest court filing to intervene as an interested party in the awarding of the city’s second casino license.

In an email that is part of SugarHouse’s petition to intervene in a second Philadelphia casino license, Goldenberg asked the executive of the company behind SugarHouse to pay Market East $100,000 a month until it opened a casino at Eighth and Market.

The email, at 3:59 p.m. July 23, from Goldenberg to Neil G. Bluhm is Exhibit D in SugarHouse’s Sept. 7 court filing, asking the Supreme Court to send the case back to the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board, and to allow SugarHouse to fully participate in future proceedings, including taking depositions from witnesses to get to the exact source of the proposed Stadium Casino L.L.C. financing.

[mcgrath618]

Originally Posted by eixample

Apparently its not done...Goldenberg is asking the Supreme Court to send it back to the Gaming Commission again.

http://www.philly.com/philly/business/to...emands-20170913.html?amphtml=y&mobi=true

Architecturally, that building is superb, but as far as city planning goes, it would be better suited elsewhere. That plot of land should be a trophy building as far as I'm concerned. Where else in the city do you have PATCO, BSL, El, Regional Rail, bus routes, and a possible future trolley connection? This spot should not be wasted on a casino.

[PhilliesPhan]

I don't want to revive the thread just yet since I don't have any concrete information, but I noticed a ton of activity going on at the University City High School site about 30 minutes ago. Does anyone know if 3700 Lancaster is about to begin, or if it could be something else?

[1487]

Originally Posted by PhilliesPhan

I don't want to revive the thread just yet since I don't have any concrete information, but I noticed a ton of activity going on at the University City High School site about 30 minutes ago. Does anyone know if 3700 Lancaster is about to begin, or if it could be something else?

last time I looked there was nothing on the permit front for that site. Perhaps that has changed.

[MetaldDeth81]

Originally Posted by PhilliesPhan

I don't want to revive the thread just yet since I don't have any concrete information, but I noticed a ton of activity going on at the University City High School site about 30 minutes ago. Does anyone know if 3700 Lancaster is about to begin, or if it could be something else?

Not sure either.. I have a prime viewing spot from my office at 3711 Market. It looks like at the least they're doing foundational work (sewers, etc) for the streets running through the property.

I'll start photo documenting progress when I can.

[Mr Saturn64]

Originally Posted by mcgrath618

Architecturally, that building is superb, but as far as city planning goes, it would be better suited elsewhere. That plot of land should be a trophy building as far as I'm concerned. Where else in the city do you have PATCO, BSL, El, Regional Rail, bus routes, and a possible future trolley connection? This spot should not be wasted on a casino.

Exactly. Having a casino take up that massive lot with so much transit, near all sorts of businesses, and with so much potential would be a colossal waste. Plus , Market8 isn't even supposed to very tall at all. Not only that, but it looks way out of place.

[mcgrath618]

Originally Posted by Mr Saturn64

Exactly. Having a casino take up that massive lot with so much transit, near all sorts of businesses, and with so much potential would be a colossal waste. Plus , Market8 isn't even supposed to very tall at all. Not only that, but it looks way out of place.

Put it on the waterfront near Spruce St Harbor Park. It'd do spectacularly.