BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[Common Sense]

Originally Posted by Pinion

The majority does not want the BC Liberals in power. If it was the opposite of reality then yes, of course.

If that was case, the NDP would had won a majority government. Instead the NDP was 2 seats behind the Liberals and a virtual tie between the two parties.

In a first past the post multi-party electoral system, it is rare that any party get over 50% of the vote. So it is almost always the case where the majority do not want the party that won.

So you can argue that 60% did not want the NDP when they formed government in the 1990's.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

My only real criticism of the BC liberals is social program policies. They appear open to changing this thus my main problem with them is voided.

You contradict yourself so much.

Originally Posted by Common Sense

If that was case, the NDP would had won a majority government. Instead the NDP was 2 seats behind the Liberals and a virtual tie between the two parties.

In a first past the post multi-party electoral system, it is rare that any party get over 50% of the vote. So it is almost always the case where the majority do not want the party that won.

So you can argue that 60% did not want the NDP when they formed government in the 1990's.

The majority of NDP voters are OK with the Greens and vice versa. They both hate the BC Liberals. Vote splitting with our terrible system is the only reason why the Liberals occasionally win.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Pinion

You contradict yourself so much.



The majority of NDP voters are OK with the Greens and vice versa. They both hate the BC Liberals. Vote splitting with our terrible system is the only reason why the Liberals occasionally win.

Where did I contradict myself? I've been pretty consistent in this thread that my main support for the NDP has to do with social spending and due to how morally bankrupt the Liberals have been.

If they reverse that then I really don't care who governs.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Also as I already stated, if an election happens the BC Liberals will likely win a majority mandate thus any real progress will be killed.

Better to support the Liberals now if they will give these concessions and only force a confidence motion when they break their promise on these very reforms supposedly to be laid out in the throne speech.

This way the poorest members of our society get help regardless of the outcome. I know the Liberals are playing politics, I just don't really care, I care about real action and I don't care which party implements said real action as long as it happens.

[retro_orange]

...and if they backtrack on those promises and everything stays the same?

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by retro_orange

...and if they backtrack on those promises and everything stays the same?

They have a minority government, call the legislature and vote down a confidence motion calling either an election or an unlikely NDP government.

Right now if they are propped up by the ndp and greens at least until they pass this legislation or go passed 12 months of governing, then at least theres a chance this legislation can be implemented since the NDP and Greens will constantly have their hands clutching the confidence trigger at any moment.

The NDP won't win an election in this province, this minority mandate might be the best we can get unless we do reform the electoral system.

Furthermore as Stingray has already explained well, the chance of an NDP government with green backing is extremely unlikely since the Lt. Governor will question it's stability and call an election.

If the NDP and Greens vote down this throne speech that speaks their language already, the populous will be pretty angry if an election is called and the BC Liberals will happily use it as a divide and conquer strategy to win a majority mandate where they will easily throw any reforms out the window.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

. Furthermore as Stingray has already explained well, the chance of an NDP government with green backing is extremely unlikely since the Lt. Governor will question it's stability and call an election.

Aside, from the "stability" issue, I better clarify - the LG cannot call an election on her own volition.

The LG will only grant dissolution of the House (new election) upon the advice of the LG's 1st minister and then accepting that advice. Expecting CC now to pivot on this issue and indeed provide that advice, what is also important to note is that Ron Cheffins (constitutional expert in Westminster system) is likely now advising the LG and he is on record endorsing dissolution. Those 2 matters, hand-in-hand, tell me that we are likely off to the polls at the end of next week. My current view.

And some more curious tidbits from today:

1. CC is in the riding of Courtenay-Comox holding an election style townhall campaign; (same riding that we all awaited the outcome for 2 weeks after the election)

2. Weaver today has stated that if the Libs bring in legislation, prior to the Throne Speech, to ban union/corporate political funding, the Greens will likely support that legislation.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Where did I contradict myself? I've been pretty consistent in this thread that my main support for the NDP has to do with social spending and due to how morally bankrupt the Liberals have been.

You can't be ok with the Liberals except for their fundamental philosophy.

[logicbomb]

This is what I wanted all along. A Liberal Minority government that would have to give up some concessions- and allow input from all other parties in decision-making processes.

The Green needs to establish itself as viable political party in BC and the BC NDP need to rebuild credibility and gain BCers confidence again.

The Liberals are in full campaign mode right now- as most people suspect there will be an election in 12-18 months. Perhaps sooner if the recipe is right. Mark my words, the Libs will gain a majority if there is a re-election as the Green loses votes to Lib supporters (who grew tired of CC) and the NDP slip off into obscurity as they are in massive debt and have no funds for a campaign.

Weaver and Horgan should meet the next week and seriously rethink their strategy. The Liberals are martyrs at this point and CC is laying out a trap so that the GreenDP look hypocritical.

I say the wisest and smartest move would be for the coalition to throw a curve-ball and allow CC and the Libs to govern. The minute they come to a stalemate or backtrack? Let it crumble and allow the egg to crack square in the Liberals face.

[Stingray2004]

Gary Mason in his G & M column tonight also brings up another interesting point in terms of the GreeNDP accord - that is, they would need to supply a Speaker from their ranks, who for all intent and purposes, would operate/be nothing more than a partisan GreeNDP MLA, breaking ~150 years of BC Speaker convention:

[For the LG] To sanction a scenario in which the Speaker effectively becomes just another government MLA whose vote is constantly necessary to pass legislation in a one-seat majority is a dangerous precedent. It could make a mockery of centuries-old parliamentary traditions and rules.

Rather than chance throwing the B.C. legislature into disrepute, Ms. Guichon could force another election.

Now Mason is completely incorrect in his last point that the LG "could force another election". That would not only be unconstitutional but would likely result in BC LG's dismissal by the GG. Again, the LG only acts on the advice of her 1st minister - CC and the LG can either accept or reject that advice. The LG cannot act unilaterally. [input from various constitutional experts in the Westminster system]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/bri...liberals-seek-atonement/article35384518/

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by Pinion

The speaker issue is concerning. Also illustrates how dumb our system is.

It's so dumb, it's worked for hundreds of years in multiple countries.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

BC liberals plan to ban big money and increase social assistance rates.

The NDP and greens shouldn't vote down the government now. It will force an election and those who badly need a raise won't see it.

Actually, they plan to pass those bills before the vote on the Throne Speech, from what I hear.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

Actually, they plan to pass those bills before the vote on the Throne Speech, from what I hear.

Really? Do you have a source?

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Pinion

You can't be ok with the Liberals except for their fundamental philosophy.

I'm not anti capitalism. Providing a well funded welfare state is not in opposition to a capitalist economy. BC has a surplus, we can afford to take care of our own.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Really? Do you have a source?

I've read so many things today....let me check.

[jmt18325]

VICTORIA — B.C.’s moribund Liberal government is promising a last-minute reversal on some of its hardline policies, and may even pick up enough support to pass key legislation before it’s toppled in the legislature.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/christy-clark-to-focus-on-social-reforms-in-b-c-throne-speech

There is apparently no rule that says you can't pass legislation before the confidence vote on then Throne Speech.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Furthermore as Stingray has already explained well, the chance of an NDP government with green backing is extremely unlikely since the Lt. Governor will question it's stability...

Also important to note... ignoring what I have posted previously by both Westminster constitutional experts Cheffins & Lagassé‏... that Lagassé also states that the general rule regarding our current political predicament is as follows:

The Crown [LG] will only refuse advice [from 1st minister] in very exceptional circumstances and when there is an alternative first minister awaiting [GreeNDP accord].

Ergo, that does favour the GreeNDP accord. Again, we simply don't know what the LG will finally decide. Again, all speculation and conjecture at this point.

[Stingray2004]

Historical tidbit - The last time BC had a minority gov't? 65 years ago in 1952 when the Socreds, under WAC Bennett, obtained their first minority gov't. Time sequence:

June 12, 1952 - voting day;

August 1, 1952 - minority gov't sworn in;

February 3, 1953 - 1st day of legislative sitting;

April 10, 1953 - new election called; (gov't fell on a bill [confidence motion], which they engineered would result in new election)

IOW, legislature sat for just 9 weeks and the then Parliament was more stable than BC's new Parliament IMHO.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

My only real criticism of the BC liberals is social program policies. They appear open to changing this thus my main problem with them is voided.

That would be a mistake if that issue is important to you. The BC Libs hadn't raised rates for ten years. Give them another mandate and they'd quickly revert to their old ways.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I'm not anti capitalism. Providing a well funded welfare state is not in opposition to a capitalist economy. BC has a surplus, we can afford to take care of our own.

So support the "capitalist" party that wants to do that instead of the one that opposes it.