BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Pinion

The majority does not want the BC Liberals in power. If it was the opposite of reality then yes, of course.

That's a dangerous political assumption to make - esp. in BC. OTOH, one could then argue that the majority do not want the NDP in power either.

What you fail to understand about the 2017 results - all writ period opinion polls confirmed that most believed the Libs would win a majority gov't, which impacted voter behavior/the final results - to everyone's surprise. (in 2013, it was the reverse).

NDP basically received the same popular vote share in 2017 as in 2013. OTOH, the Libs & Cons lost combined ~7% from 2013. Greens were beneficiaries. Doesn't work exactly like that in terms of voter migration, but trust ya get my drift.

IOW, many 2013 BC Lib voters + 2013 Con voters voted Green in 2017, ceteris paribus, to send a message to the BC Libs. Even many 2013 Lib voters stayed home in 2017 to either send a message or believed a Lib win was slam dunk so didn't bother to vote. Analysis by others corroborates this matter. These voters certainly did not expect the NDP to form gov't.

Guess what happens in the next election? These 2013 BC Lib voters/2017 non-voters will not only undoubtedly be motivated to show up but those 2013 BC Lib voters that voted Green will also likely move back to the BC Libs.

BC Poli 101.

[retro_orange]

I feel your arguments would have more legitimacy if they weren't so weighted towards one single party.

[Stingray2004]

An excellent read/analysis on BC's current/upcoming political conundrum that just came out:

http://policymagazine.ca/baran.html

Even Westminster constitutional expert Philippe Lagassé‏ just chimed in on same:

Good points here by @YaroslavB. Unless the SOs are altered, BC is likely heading back to the polls before Sept.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

My prediction if a new election is called: Public punishes Libs. Votes will swing strategically away from the Greens to the NDP to ensure a real majority.

The BC Libs can actually bow to the "will" of the people here and let the NDP/Greens have a shot. The NDP-Greens are a seat short of being able to force the issue themselves.

There's no way the blame doesn't fall squarely on Clark's shoulders.

I agree that is likely the outcome however I doubt the Liberals have a say in the matter when it's the Lt. Gov who will decide whether to call an election or not.

Frankly I think theres a 70% chance of an election happening over the summer at this point.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

So let's put shoe on other foot. Let's say NDP had 43 seats v. 41 Libs + 3 Greens (or whatever). Incumbent gov't was NDP and allowed to govern. Libs and Greens (or whatever poli party) decide to form accord to defeat NDP at Throne Speech.

Both Libs & Greens (or whatever) both know that their accord might not be accepted by LG but still proceed. LG rejects accord, which results in dissolution.

So you are telling me, under that scenario, that the electorate would punish the NDP as a result of the Lib/Green (or whatever) actions, which precipitated a new election?

It was clear Clark had no momentum, and really at the end of the day, most voters don't like her. Now that voters see how close it came, they'll turn out just to get rid of her once and for all.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

That's a dangerous political assumption to make - esp. in BC. OTOH, one could then argue that the majority do not want the NDP in power either.

What you fail to understand about the 2017 results - all writ period opinion polls confirmed that most believed the Libs would win a majority gov't, which impacted voter behavior/the final results - to everyone's surprise. (in 2013, it was the reverse).

NDP basically received the same popular vote share in 2017 as in 2013. OTOH, the Libs & Cons lost combined ~7% from 2013. Greens were beneficiaries. Doesn't work exactly like that in terms of voter migration, but trust ya get my drift.

IOW, many 2013 BC Lib voters + 2013 Con voters voted Green in 2017, ceteris paribus, to send a message to the BC Libs. Even many 2013 Lib voters stayed home in 2017 to either send a message or believed a Lib win was slam dunk so didn't bother to vote. Analysis by others corroborates this matter. These voters certainly did not expect the NDP to form gov't.

Guess what happens in the next election? These 2013 BC Lib voters/2017 non-voters will not only undoubtedly be motivated to show up but those 2013 BC Lib voters that voted Green will also likely move back to the BC Libs.

BC Poli 101.

Your flaw is that you fail to take into account increased turnout.

The BC Liberals actually got the same amount of votes in 2017 as they did in 2013, the NDP on the other hand had a surge as did the greens.

Where did these votes come from? They didn't come from the libs since the libs held their base while turnout rose.

The obvious reality? A LOT of people wanted clark gone so turnout rose.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Honestly I used to respect Stingray but he's now trying so difficult to come off as an intellectual right now that he's no longer credible.

Dare I remind you 6 months ago he predicted a Liberal super majority and the worst outcome for the NDP since 2001, he couldn't have been more wrong.

[Bcasey25raptor]

So much for Stingray's "The greens will mow the NDP's lawn" statements from half a year ago, now he says the opposite that the greens won Liberal voters despite the fact 70% of greens polled say the NDP was their second choice.

Stingray, you really are grasping at partisan straws at this point, Christy Clark isn't a dictator and BC isn't a single party state, it isn't enshrined in law that the BC Liberals will always govern.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Honestly I used to respect Stingray but he's now trying so difficult to come off as an intellectual right now that he's no longer credible.

He's a smart guy but you can't take someone seriously when their analysis always leads to personally preferred outcomes. The appropriate term is partisan hack.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Your flaw is that you fail to take into account increased turnout.

Doesn't work like that. In 2005 and 2009 BC elections, the BC Libs & BC NDP received the same popular vote share at 46% and 42% respectively. Voter turnout in 2005? 58.2% And 2009? 51%. And I haven't even thrown population growth into the matrix.

A much more politically complex/analytical matter.

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

So much for Stingray's "The greens will mow the NDP's lawn" statements from half a year ago

Those words were publicly quoted and came out of the mouth of BC NDP leader Horgan. Remember?

Anyways. Grab your bag of popcorn and pay attention to the wild political ride ahead.

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Guess what happens in the next election? These 2013 BC Lib voters/2017 non-voters will not only undoubtedly be motivated to show up but those 2013 BC Lib voters that voted Green will also likely move back to the BC Libs.

BC Poli 101.

great breakdown and I feel the same way

[Stingray2004]

The BC political scene has become so fluid, every day changes dynamics. Certain matters came to my attention today that begins to make more sense of the political landscape over the next 2 weeks.

On May 30 when the NDP/Greens signed their accord, Preem CC held a subsequent presser stating that she "would not be requesting another election from the LG. The LG will be making that decision. The decision is solely hers."

After that, both the media and everyone else came to the conclusion that CC won't ask the LG for another election. End of story.

But certain matters came to my attention today to revisit the words from CC back on May 30: "would not be requesting another election from the LG. The LG will be making that decision. The decision is solely hers." CC carefully chose her words and was hesitant.

Firstly, the 1st minister does not "request" another election of the LG. The 1st minister "advises" the LG on matters and the LG can either accept or reject that advice. The LG certainly makes the decision on whether she will accept dissolution based upon that advice. Again, CC carefully chose her words.

While I had previously completely discounted another election on those grounds - not anymore.

And all matters seem to fit in:

1. Ipsos poll from last week confirmed decided BCers are evenly split on a new election;

2. Mike de Yong is now the Lib front man and his narrative is how "unstable" a GreeNDP accord actually is.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/...-as-question-of-speaker-causes-confusion

http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/liberal-mla-for-the-third-time-no-i-wont-be-speaker

3. BC NDP is now engaged in large fund-raising campaign for a new election;

4. Horgan has been on campaign style events - including an election style town hall meeting in Whalley yesterday in front of 100 - 150;

5. Throne Speech this Thursday, read by LG, will be all about "stability" and basically a new BC Lib platform;

6. Throne Speech will receive media attention over next few days until next sitting on following Monday;

7. Both Libs and NDP feverishly polling internally right now;

8. Debate on Throne Speech ends on Thursday next week when final vote will be held - and the Libs will be defeated. That's when CC goes to the LG to provide "advice". A new election? If Cheffins is advising LG then likelihood of dissolution is high.

Westminster constitutional expert Philippe Lagassé chimed in on the foregoing scenario today:

That's my sense as well.

Aside from all of the "distractions", I now believe that after the vote on the Throne Speech, the LG will affirm dissolution and we will be at the commencement of a new writ period.

Only way I can't see that happening is if the 3 Greens abstain from voting on the Throne Speech. But Weaver doesn't seem to have clued in yet.

And tomorrow will be yet another day in bc poli.

PS. Mike Smyth of the Province chimed in on Twitter over the past 20 minutes:

The BC Liberals are socking away as much money as possible in case the L-G calls an election. I think the chances of an election are rising.

[Bcasey25raptor]

I'm also strongly starting to believe BC will go back to the polls.

[Pinion]

The speaker issue is concerning. Also illustrates how dumb our system is.

[Bcasey25raptor]

BC liberals plan to ban big money and increase social assistance rates.

The NDP and greens shouldn't vote down the government now. It will force an election and those who badly need a raise won't see it.

[whatnext]

"Say Anything Christie" continues her tradition of crass opportunism. She's apparently discovered the joys of banning big money from political fundraising and also that welfare rates are too low, and will share that with us in the Throne Speech:
http://www.vancourier.com/news/critic-calls-clark-s-sudden-policy-shift-crass-1.20670559

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

BC liberals plan to ban big money and increase social assistance rates.

The NDP and greens shouldn't vote down the government now. It will force an election and those who badly need a raise won't see it.

You're hilarious. 16 years of majority rule, and now suddenly they see the light?

These are the exact people the NDP and Greens say they would help.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

You're hilarious. 16 years of majority rule, and now suddenly they see the light?

These are the exact people the NDP and Greens say they would help.

My only real criticism of the BC liberals is social program policies. They appear open to changing this thus my main problem with them is voided.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

My only real criticism of the BC liberals is social program policies. They appear open to changing this thus my main problem with them is voided.

They are playing politics 101 and trying to dupe people into voting for them in 6 months, and you're falling right into it.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

They are playing politics 101 and trying to dupe people into voting for them in 6 months, and you're falling right into it.

Who said I planned on voting BC liberal?

Merely I view voting against this throne speech as unwise.

Give the libs a chance to keep this promise and if they break it then pull the trigger and vote against them triggering an election.

Way it stands now if the greens and NDP vote down the liberals we will be thrown into a snap election. This is very bad optics gosaid the NDP and will result in a liberal majority where they will likely immediate break this throne speech promise.

That's my reasoning.