YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[mezzanine]

skimming the audio from the WS BoT talk today:

-YYC's call-to-gate has been disbanded
-no partnering with an intl alliance so far. all airlines are potential partners except * alliance ones.
-lots of talking up of a potential south america to asia on WS's part, with reference to this slide. lots of caveats about no firm canadian hub yet though.



https://twitter.com/BoardofTrade

[trofirhen]

Look at that "Potential WestJet route map" Any way of posting it here for a clearer view of it?
If not where could I find it? Tried Google, but couldn't.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/2017/april/traffic-update_april-2017.pdf?la=en

Domestic up 10.3%
International up 15.2%

---------

Total pax count up over 209,000 compared to April 2016.

---------

Int'l breakdown by sector:

Transborder up 13.9%
Asia Pacific up 18.2%
Europe up 4.5%
Misc Int'l up 27.2%

Not a single comment on this, bizarre. This is just nuts growth!

Europe the only sign of weakness, and at 4.5% most airports would consider this good growth not weakness. Transborder is a real shocker, as is domestic.

Originally Posted by Gordon

WE may even see Gate E85 remote stand go into use.

I was at YVR yesterday and saw China Eastern using the de-icing pads to load up. Truly a weird site to see at YVR. China southern was out there too although it may have just been resting.

[LeftCoaster]

A spotter I follow on Instagram let slip that Qantas is looking to fly YVR-SYD daily starting next year on the 787. Not sure how reliable this is but he does work at the airport so it could be something.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I was at YVR yesterday and saw China Eastern using the de-icing pads to load up. Truly a weird site to see at YVR. China southern was out there too although it may have just been resting.

Seems like MU582 (YVR-PVG) and CZ378 (MEX-YVR-CAN) are always the two flights that uses remote gate. Unlike other international flights, these flights never shown an assigned gate until late in the morning (until other flights had been finalized, I guess?) And if there is no spare bridge available, one will both will be assigned to gate D59. The early afternoon LGW departure from Air Transat also have no gate assignment initially on some days... I wonder if that's the third flight that would use the remote gate, especially when it goes (almost) daily starting next week...

Surprisingly the gate assignment is mostly the same as 2016, except that gate 75 is now solely used for US departures, and AC's new flights are kicking CZ and TS out of their original gates... FI's move to earlier afternoon also seems to have a higher priority in gate assignment too (thus kick MU out)

All gates in D and E wing are being used except for... E91 and E93... Are these unavailable? I wonder if they could've move some CRJs there and free up gat 75 and 76 for international use... Otherwise looking at this, I'm sure we'll see gate D60 and E85 in action later in the summer...

[Gordon]

Ac Uses E93 from time to time. It does seem that gates 90 -92 are only being used by the regional jets.

During the main Asian departure block they should focus all rJ traffic tthe East apron transboarder hold room gates 90 -92 feeing up the swing gates for smaller wide bodies. E93 is a graoud load position

Does any one know were the remote stand connected to gate E 85 is?

[Alpine]

Looks like the geopolitical rift between Qatar and the other GCC countries will push the chances of a future YVR-DOH route further into "never going to happen" fantasyland. Look how YYZ-IST traffic (and all global traffic to/from IST as a matter of fact) plummeted after the coup attempt against Erdogan.

Why is it that the world's fastest growing airports (DXB, AUH, DOH, IST) are located in countries that have either gotten into diplomatic spats with Canada (UAE) or are on the wrong end of a geopolitical fistfight (Qatar, Turkey)? The Middle East will be the world's next big economic hub, I'm excited to see what Expo 2020 in Dubai will reveal. Plus being 4 hours' flight time from a third of the world's population (and 8 hours from two-thirds) could be one of those X-factors that increases Vancouver's international business potential to the next level.

YVR-MENASA is already really hard to justify, they're long, low-yield routes (not much demand for business travellers or O&D) that can only really be operated by a handful of aircraft (77W, 789, 359/3510, 388). Obviously neither AC nor its *A partners want to see the ME3 double daily bring 77Ws (350+ seats!) and completely consume TATL traffic to/from Vancouver like how the ME3 wiped out QF's TCON market share in Australia. The recent unrest in Turkey and Qatar will make a YVR-MENASA route even less likely.

Furthermore, the ME3 renegotiating bilaterals with AC/Transport Canada are predicated on the ME3 demanding unlimited slots anywhere in Canada--i.e., unlimited YYZ-DXB/YYZ-AUH/YYZ-DOH. AC56/57 recently upgauged to a 77W from a 789, I don't think AC would be growing its YYZ-MENASA market nearly as much if EK got 3x daily 388s + 5x weekly 77Ws to DXB. Similarly, AC/Transport Canada limiting ME3 service to YVR has allowed AC and its *A partners to really build out YVR's destination network. It was a miracle we got YVR-DEL at all; a few years ago we didn't even have nonstop flights to Paris or San Diego, and had AC's ancient 763s/CA and MU equally ancient 332s flying YVR-PEK and YVR-PVG.

Unless AC is willing to start a YVR-AUH rouge flight, or QR/EY has some extra 789s/359s to spare for a YVR-DOH or YVR-AUH flight, there will be no--the economics don't work in favour no matter which way you look at it. I wish the ME3 were willing to accept limited slots to YYZ in exchange for slots yo YVR, YVR-DXB on an Emirates A380 would be paradise compared to the cramped-ass high-density AC 77W on the YVR-YYZ-DXB route, or flying on BA/LH's dinosaur 744s (seriously, why isn't BA A380 service to YVR year round?! And why hasn't LH brought the 388 or even a 74H to YVR?). The upside like I said before is that the lack of ME3 presence has allowed YVR to flourish into a huge AC/*A hub. Now if only there were nonstop YVR-SIN and YVR-SDJ (Sendai)...I'd even fly Rouge for that.

I want to talk numbers for a minute. A large chunk of EK's 2x daily 77W service to SEA is to shuttle PNW travellers going to India. That's ~5000 seats/weekly, year-round. AC72/73 is supposed to sop up some of that demand, right?Maybe not. AC's flight is 3x weekly; the 789s have 298 seats. That's about 900 seats/weekly; Sea-Tac has more than 5 and a half times the service to MENASA that YVR has, not even mentioning that AC72/73 is limited to late October-early April (which like I said is the peak of O&D demand; the hot weather of the pre-monsoon period in May/June damps down India traffic and the monsoon is the low point of the travel season) I don't have numbers to back it up, but is it possible that EK227/228 and EK229/230 are siphoning YVR-India traffic, even with the weak loonie (making it cheaper to fly out of Canada) and the operation of AC72/73? The only other explanation I can think of is that the double daily 77W SEA-DXB are also used to shuttle maintenance parts from Boeing factories in Western Washington to EK's DXB-based 77W base.

By the way, I was at the airport last Thursday, and around midday I happened to come across KLM's check in desk. In line were a fair few Indians for the KL682 flight to Amsterdam that left later in the afternoon. Obviously not as many as there might have been a few months prior, since it's the blisteringly hot pre-monsoon period in north India, but it looks like KLM/AF are competing hard with the mainland Chinese carriers for low-season YVR-India traffic. Recently KLM has emerged with the cheapest off-season fares to Delhi, undercutting Lufthansa and the *A partners (AC854/AI116 via LHR or AC116/AC56 via YYZ). Well, not as cheap as the Chinese carriers but would you really want to subject yourself to transiting in Shanghai or Guangzhou just to save money? Especially considering the onward flights from China to India are consistently, horrendously late. I'd rather fly KLM and get the free stopover in Amsterdam.

It's amazing how CX's iron grip on the YVR-India route is now in tatters; DEL used to be the most popular onward destination for YVR-HKG pax, and HKG was also the most popular connecting hub for YVR-India pax; then LHR emerged as a competitor, followed by FRA, and then the Chinese carriers undercut the European carriers, giving them a huge chunk of the market (many pax to India fly in families so small differences in ticket prices add up--YVR-India pax are very price-sensitive). Now AC and LH seem to be positioning themselves as the pricier "anti-China Southern" (i.e. you pay more so you don't have to transit in the zoo that is Guangzhou), with KLM/AF striking a balance between cost and service (pity KL682/683 is only 5x weekly).

[trofirhen]

The only possibility that crosses my mind for YVR ><MENASA is Teheran. It's been talked about by Air Canada, too, and Iran just re-elected a moderate leader, which takes
off some of the political heat - barring any terrorist acts. Incidentally, DBX is almost EXACTLY 180° Longitude from YVR; that's halfway around the world. So to go on from there to India is like looping backward around the globe.
That renders the Gulf States to be the geographical limit in that regard, but of course many people want to try EK or QT, and if they have seat sales the extra flying time would be worth it.

[nname]

EK SEA-DXB had been cut to 1x daily starting... 5 days ago

[Gordon]

I Don't mind not having Emirates @ YVR . I would think India & South Eat Asia Through our various Asian destinations would be much better.

Can the D]\E swing gates hadle larger wide bodies or Just 767's & a 330's
\Gates 90-96 only see around 9 flights During the Asian departure block, There seems to more than enough room to push more transboarder flights to that part of the terminal

[Hot Rod]

I was going to mention that ME3 has cut flights to USA, including SEA.

Likely, the twin flights were necessary not so much demand but moreso for weight restriction due to Boeing's Spare Division (which is near SEA facility).

Remember that ME3 competes at SEA with DL who has been trying tooth and nail to establish SEA as a APAC gateway with questionable success - and DL @ SEA has been YVRs competition when it comes to SEA Int'l (and again, even that's debatable if there's been any affect on YVR, particularly when you see huge gains YoY in Tx border and Canada domestic and huge APAC growth at YVR).

[teriyaki]

With the dollar the way it is now, I would presume that cross border flying is significantly reduced vs years of past. Bellingham I still see grabbing some marketshare for the leisuire travellers but I really don't see someone making the trek to Sea-Tac anymore. The cost of the airfare would have to be hugely different for anything to even begin to make sense and thats before factoring in the time and convenience factors. Sea-tac is a complete non-issue for YVR competition at this point in time.

[SpongeG]

Alaska will start flying out of the airport at everett and that's a lot closer than sea tac, its just passed the outlet mall really

[excel]

Paine Field is south of Everett and takes about an hour longer to get to compared to Bellingham.

[connect2source]

Only 16 flights / day planned for Paine Field so far. Allegiant has just expressed interest in flying out of Paine as well as Alaska.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by casper

Sounds like TAP Air Portugal is looking at going to Toronto and possibly Montreal. That would make a great airline into Vancouver. They offer some interesting connections into North Africa and southern Europe from Lisbon. However its probably unlikely.

Even more unlikely would be to attract them to Vancouver as a stop over between Lisbon and Macao. The operate the Lisbon to Macca flight for a very short time many many years ago, however it flew the other direction over Russia.

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Agreed that TAP Air Portugal might make a great airline into Vancouver, but I doubt they'll ever be granted landing rights here, so you might as well forget it.
Sorry. I think we're stuck with what we have as Trans-Atlantic for another decade

Originally Posted by casper

I agree it is very unlikely we are even on their radar screen. They would be a great addition.

I read recently that the largest unserved destination to Europe from YVR to Europe is BCN. That might be (in fact I'm sure would be) a great summer seasonal route (too bad Norwegian, outside the EU, can't do that one, as they are establishing a Barcelona hub.)
* Also, I read that the largest unserved Transborder US destination is ... MIA, with BOS coming in at second place in unserved destinations. Would at least Miami be right for the picking?

[Prometheus]

For any of you number-crunching airport nerds, what do you think the probability of YVR breaking 24 million in 2017 is?

[mezzanine]

my non-expert's view on YVR and MENASA/ME3 has changed over the past 1-2 years. IMO not having the ME3 at YVR has really paid off in route development for YVR as a hub, esp with AC and the chinese/taiwanese carriers.

india used to be the key factor for the ME3 at YVR with its price and connections to secondary cities, but i'm not sure it is anymore with AC new (seasonal) service, to DEL and price competition from the chinese/taiwanese carriers.

no hard data, but i'm unsure how the new laptop ban for the ME3 is affecting the high end.

i'm not sure how strong O+D traffic is to africa and the ME, and most destinations are a non-onerous 1 stop flight from europe. aside from price, i am unsure what the ME3 can bring and if you have not structured yourself as a LCC i am unsure how sustainable a business plan that is.

[Canadian74]

AC's DEL service is extremely limited, seasonal and only 3 weekly.

Emirates also flies to way more destinations in India from DXB than AC ever could from Canada. (yes there is Star partner AI but I don't know how well the connections work with them. AI's domestic market share has plummeted. many would just prefer to connect in dxb and fly in a nice Emirates A380 or 777 all the way).

[mezzanine]

I suspect O+D traffic/commercially viable traffic from YVR to india is seasonal, price sensitive and weighted towards north inida/Punjab/delhi. I can see how moving AC's DEL service to year round would be a big hurdle. from YVR I can see jet airways via KLM/AMS providing 1 stop service to secondary indian cities.

any benefit of ME3 service from YVR to secondary cities in india catering to smaller O+D markets I think would be outweighed by the pressure it would put on TATL flights and YVR-hub building, especially the A++ JV.


random google flight searching is illuminating - SEA-DEL flights in summer are comparable in price with YVR-DEL flights but with many choices hubbing in YVR via CZ/ MU. emirates flights aren't coming near to prices offered by Chinese carriers to DEL.