Calgary International Airport II

[Blader]

nm

Dumb dumb dumb

[Lancaster]

Originally Posted by Cage

I wish it were "no worries, be happy".

My concern is that there is no attempt at having the same speech for the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. Further its not a situation where the Calgary Chamber's dance card is full or that Saretsky would get a cold response from the audience. About the only thing I can think of, the Calgary Airport Authority is controlled by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce and WestJet and the CAA are still mending fences, so there might be a conflict of interest.

I personally wouldn't put too much stock into it. The series Saretsky is speaking as part of is put on by YVR. No doubt he would have spoken at it regardless of Dreamliner purchase.

The other point is that Rovinescu had a similar topic to VBoT in 2013 and 2014 as to the Saretsky speech quoted above. The Rovinescu speech on 2013 highlighted the dangers of implementing an open-source hub over a traditional hub by the largest home town airline. The 2014 speech was all about how the Dreamliner and AC Rouge will transform the AC YVR route system.

Sorry, I don't follow. What's the difference between an open-source hub and a traditional hub? How does that apply to YYC/YVR?

I can see if the speaking notes from the 2014 VBoT luncheon are available, but here is a summary of new routes mentioned by Rovinescu:
- Brisbane......check
- Frankfurt.....check
- Heathrow high density......check
- Hong Kong high density.....check
- Rouge to Asia thru YVR....check
If Rovinescu had mentioned Delhi, Taipei, Beijing high density, Melbourne, Singapore, and Bangkok; he would have been laughed out of the room. Yet with the exception of Singapore and Bangkok all these routes have come about in the past 3 years.

I hope that Saretsky's speech on June 1 does not end up being the goal setting exercise for the WestJet Dreamliners. If this does come true, Calgarians will have to do something unCalgarian and go to AC and kick the hometown company out of the favourite spot.

While Calgary has lost out for sure over the last few years on new routes, we have something going that can't be forgotten. We have a brand new, shiny terminal ripe for development. YVR doesn't have the same flexibility as YYC, and there's nothing that says AC can't give up on YVR if they figure out they can operate more efficiently out of YYC.

Edit: I think I misread. I think you're saying that YYCAA should consider kicking AC out of C and putting WS on C instead?

[outoftheice]

Sunwing will be contracting Viva Aerobus to operate weekend departures out of YYC beginning in December. Be nice for the spotters to see something different for a change.

[Mazrim]

Bigtime said that the AC new livery 787 was coming to YYC yesterday and I expected pictures to show up here! Is there somewhere else I should be looking for pictures?

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Bigtime said that the AC new livery 787 was coming to YYC yesterday and I expected pictures to show up here! Is there somewhere else I should be looking for pictures?

First 787-9 in the new livery, check it out here:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/158623457582715/?ref=bookmarks

[Fuzz]

• Video Link

[MalcolmTucker]

This route (YYC-YHZ-EDI) would give over 20 hours a day utilization, and the loss in directness is made up for with the gain in fuel efficiency cost wise.

[Cage]

There is a lot of inaccuracies with the report.
1) The early max8 aircraft are replacing the mainline 319s according to the revised AC fleet plan.
2) Second to depart will be the oldest 320s.
3) Last to depart will be the 321s. This is why the 321s are first aircraft to receive the new livery.
4) first route for the max8 will be YUL-YYZ rapidair. This route is chock-a-block with Airbus narrowbody flights and the short sector allows for new pilots to be quickly qualified (pilots have to complete a certain number of take offs and landings).
5) the max8 will be based at YYZ. I expect lots of transcons from YYZ to be moved to max8. YYZ-YYJ is a strong option, but not the YYC-YHZ and YUL-YYJ flights. Also expect YYZ to California new routes on the max8.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Acey

Cage, if MAX flies to Europe from YHZ, surely that aircraft originates in YYZ? Or AC668 YUL-YHZ would be a good candidate to continue on to Europe with a ~8 pm arrival in Halifax.

The aircraft would originate in YYZ for a max run to Europe. That said, there is zero chance that AC would operate a European narrowbody bank at YHZ.

Currently AC's only TransAt narrowbody service is YYT-LHR. With narrowbody J service more like premium economy than international J, there is case to be made the service should be rouged. Additional narrowbody TransAt services would only amplify the problem.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Cage

5) the max8 will be based at YYZ. I expect lots of transcons from YYZ to be moved to max8. YYZ-YYJ is a strong option, but not the YYC-YHZ and YUL-YYJ flights.

AC has never operated YUL-YYJ non stop. They just might with the Max8.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Acey

Cage meant to say YYZ-YYJ... but I wouldn't think the MAX will be what enables YUL-YYJ. They could have done that with a 319 at any point if they wanted to, and haven't. If anything, it's the CS300 that would have them looking at something like YUL-YYJ.

The Brent Jang article mentions the following:

He envisages the plane taking on routes such as Victoria-Toronto, Victoria-Montreal and Calgary-Halifax. Trans-border routes into the United States are also on the radar, as are destinations in Mexico and the Caribbean. - See more at: https://www.skiesmag.com/features/air-ca...ibility-efficiency/#sthash.uVTwRckQ.dpuf

The He in this case is Duncan Bureau, a VP at AC who also used to do the same job at WS. Bureau has been in the biz long enough to know that you don't disclose the strategic plan to a reporter but you do have to come up with something exciting that is pertinent to the situation.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

AC has never operated YUL-YYJ non stop. They just might with the Max8.

I don't see the Max aircraft being well suited for YUL beyond the existing peak time transcon services. However the CS300 is much better plane to base out of YUL. Especially with the Centre for Excellence maintenance base being set up by BBD at YUL.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by Cage

There is a lot of inaccuracies with the report.
1) The early max8 aircraft are replacing the mainline 319s according to the revised AC fleet plan.
2) Second to depart will be the oldest 320s.

I'm surprised they would replace the A319s first. The oldest is about 20 years, whereas the oldest A320 is pushing 28. Unless they want to shift the A319s to Rouge quickly, maybe?

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by wave46

I'm surprised they would replace the A319s first. The oldest is about 20 years, whereas the oldest A320 is pushing 28. Unless they want to shift the A319s to Rouge quickly, maybe?

It's more that the A319s at mainline are less efficient than the A320s in terms of CASM.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by wave46

I'm surprised they would replace the A319s first. The oldest is about 20 years, whereas the oldest A320 is pushing 28. Unless they want to shift the A319s to Rouge quickly, maybe?

The A319 is marketable (ETA) to other airlines and leasing companies because the aircraft has a lot of life left (/ETA), where as the AC A320s are not even worth scrap/salvage value. The A319 is also an orphan subfleet at mainline.

There will be no more narrowbody aircraft at rouge for the time being. I could see AC replacing a few rouge 319s with 321s on a 1:1 basis.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Cage

The A319 is marketable (ETA) to other airlines and leasing companies because the aircraft has a lot of life left (/ETA), where as the AC A320s are not even worth scrap/salvage value. The A319 is also an orphan subfleet at mainline.

There will be no more narrowbody aircraft at rouge for the time being. I could see AC replacing a few rouge 319s with 321s on a 1:1 basis.

As the next generation of max aircraft come online you would think the market would start to get flooded with older Airbus and Boeing narrow body aircraft. Any thoughts on how long the window is that AC has to sell these A319 birds to someone else before the market gets flooded and they are worthless?

[wave46]

Originally Posted by casper

As the next generation of max aircraft come online you would think the market would start to get flooded with older Airbus and Boeing narrow body aircraft. Any thoughts on how long the window is that AC has to sell these A319 birds to someone else before the market gets flooded and they are worthless?

In about 10 years, those airframes at AC will be pushing 30+ years old. I'm not sure how they're aging from an hours/cycles point of view, but I'd say the window of opportunity to unload them for a reasonable price is about 5 years.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by casper

As the next generation of max aircraft come online you would think the market would start to get flooded with older Airbus and Boeing narrow body aircraft. Any thoughts on how long the window is that AC has to sell these A319 birds to someone else before the market gets flooded and they are worthless?

The used market is holding up for well maintained narrowbody aircraft. Given that A320 used sales have held up until the aircraft get past 30 years old, I expect the same to continue for the A319. Furthermore the first batch of max and NEO aircraft are replacing aircraft destined for the scrap heap after only one user airline. The market for used narrowbody aircraft will be buoyed by the major airlines either sending the bad apples to the scrap heap or keeping the older aircraft for flexible lift.

[CTrainDude]

We'll likely be seeing this around YYC soon. WestJet's first 737MAX, from their Twitter account earlier (hidden due to size):

[yyc_engineer]

April Passenger Numbers are out. Up 8.3% over 2016! Definitely positive news especially considering April was the only month that dropped in both 2015 and 2016. Transborder is up 15% which should bring us back up close to 2014 numbers.

May and June should be good as well with BNA & MEX coming online.

Full numbers here: http://www.yyc.com/en-us/media/factsfigures/passengerstatistics.aspx