BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[SpongeG]

will christy clark resign? they mentioned something on cbc last night that she would most likely resign since she didn't get a majority

based on how politics is played thats what they were saying usually happens

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

will christy clark resign? they mentioned something on cbc last night that she would most likely resign since she didn't get a majority

based on how politics is played thats what they were saying usually happens

She just did a press conference and seems to think she's gonna get a coalition with the Greens. Or at least is really hoping for it and sucking up to Weaver.

[SpongeG]

ah

[WarrenC12]

Her party still has the most seats. Her remaining as Premier makes more sense than anything else at this point.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Sheba

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky: 9,649 (L) 6,447 (G) 6,068 (N) *

Wow, if the NDP hadn't split the left-leaning vote the Greens could have won!

[Migrant_Coconut]

HAH - good one!

[Bdawe]

Originally Posted by lubicon

My assumption is the Lt Governor would ask the party with the most seats to form a government. Failing that their option would be to either dissolve the legislature and call another election or ask someone else if they can form one. The NDP and Greens cannot just unilaterally form a coalition and take power.

In other words the government serves at the pleasure of the Queen and it is the Queen (or her representative) who decides whom to ask to form the government.

While there's no legal impediment to calling another election, that outcome is outside convention unless no government can be formed. The option of dissolving the legislature and going back to the polls does not really come into existence if a government can be formed for an indeterminate amount of time

[logicbomb]

Saw a shared FB post of a mutual friend claiming Lib majority? Why...him and 13 other soldiers loved Jim Benninger-who is respected and well liked by his former colleagues.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Saw a shared FB post of a mutual friend claiming Lib majority? Why...him and 13 other soldiers loved Jim Benninger-who is respected and well liked by his former colleagues.

Yes but they won't be the only absentee ballots in that riding. Last election the NDP won the absentee ballot total there.

[csbvan]

Are we in a war that has CFB Comox members off base and not able to vote on election day or something? That is what people seem to be assuming. Nobody knows what will happen.

[WarrenC12]

A number of riding have really close totals, current winners from both parties, so a few could flip either way:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kggTdvPZL9szaGg0buXhQ65E-PP0k17c8qOT5AYtqXE/edit#gid=0

[Tetsuo]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Yes but they won't be the only absentee ballots in that riding. Last election the NDP won the absentee ballot total there.

The riding changes lost a few NDP heavy areas though

[Tetsuo]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

So when is the meet up?

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I'd love to take you up on costco hotdogs

Haha, once Sauder finally liquidates the markets and SSPVancouver forum members plan another meetup this summer

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Wow, if the NDP hadn't split the left-leaning vote the Greens could have won!

For all the talk about NDP-Green voting splitting, we only see it maybe happening in two ridings in the province (West Vancouver-Sea to Sky and Parksville-Qualicum). There were as many Lib-Green splits (Esquimalt-Metchosin and Nelson-Creston)!

[Common Sense]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Wow, if the NDP hadn't split the left-leaning vote the Greens could have won!

Cuts both ways. You see it in the ridings where the Liberals lost to the NDP. The Green vote cost the Liberals a Majority.

Good example is North Vancouver Lonsdale where Liberals had won since 1991.

2013:

Liberals - 11,060
NDP - 9872
Green - 2257

2017:

NDP - 10,786
Liberal - 9336
Green - 3617

The Green Vote went up almost 1400 votes. If you add the 1360 extra Green votes to the Liberals total of 9336 it is 10696, almost the same as the NDP's 10786.

Basically the Greens cost the Liberals more than the NDP since the NDP went up and the Liberals down and the Greens went up.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

will christy clark resign? they mentioned something on cbc last night that she would most likely resign since she didn't get a majority

based on how politics is played thats what they were saying usually happens

I live in Ontario and the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty won the 2011 election one seat shy of a majority. The Liberals stayed in power and implemented a few things from the NDP platform to get the NDP's support during votes of confidence. (budget) The government lasted about three years and then NDP decided to vote against the 2014 budget along with the PCs which triggered an election.

Back to BC:

Christy Clark won the election, won the most seats and her government remains in power. If the Liberals don't win a majority it will be interesting. Clark will try to get the support of members of another party to keep her government alive. It would most likely be the Greens because only a couple of MLAs are needed and the NDP is a main and traditional rival which normally wouldn't form any type of coalition with the Liberals in BC.

The Liberals got the most votes of any party. Even though what actually counts in the number of seats won, popular vote often does have influence over coalitions and whether or not they will happen. In the case of BC, this is good news for the Liberals.

If the opposition parties together decide that the current minority government can't be functional or doesn't deserve to govern, a motion of non-confidence can be introduced and the NDP would be given a chance to govern. The NDP then would try to get the support of the Green MLAs to stay alive. Often but not always, two parties will make an agreement that may last a certain amount of time to keep the government alive. A motion of non-confidence can also trigger an election but would be highly unlikely very soon as most MLAs of all parties don't want to be campaigning so soon again and be putting their jobs at risk. The governing party may decide to implement some things another party wants to get its support.

A number of things will happen behind the scenes with minority governments and some people think it's politics at its best or worst.

In Ontario in 1985, the PC government, which had been in power for over 40 years, won the most seats and a minority government. The Liberals edged them out in popular vote. The PC government only lasted a month or two as the Liberals and NDP made an agreement that they would introduce a motion of non-confidence, The Liberals would become the governing party and the NDP wouldn't defeat them for at least two years.

There are also the examples of the Paul Martin Liberal and Stephen Harper CPC minority governments federally of course.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Christy Clark won the election, won the most seats and her government remains in power. If the Liberals don't win a majority it will be interesting. Clark will try to get the support of members of another party to keep her government alive. It would most likely be the Greens because only a couple of MLAs are needed and the NDP is a main and traditional rival which normally wouldn't form any type of coalition with the Liberals in BC.


If the opposition parties together decide that the current minority government can't be functional or doesn't deserve to govern, a motion of non-confidence can be introduced and the NDP would be given a chance to govern. The NDP then would try to get the support of the Green MLAs to stay alive. Often but not always, two parties will make an agreement that may last a certain amount of time to keep the government alive.

The Liberals and NDP have already been talking to the Greens. We'll have to wait for the final numbers but if the Libs have a minority, both parties will need the Greens to have enough seats. You can bet that Andrew Weaver is enjoying the situation.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Sheba

The Liberals and NDP have already been talking to the Greens. We'll have to wait for the final numbers but if the Libs have a minority, both parties will need the Greens to have enough seats. You can bet that Andrew Weaver is enjoying the situation.

No kidding, the background music practically writes itself.

"Horgan or Clark? (We know it's lose-lose)
Horgan or Clark? (But if you had to choose)
Dear Mister Weaver, your fellow MLAs would like to know how you'll be voting
Choose, choose, choose!"

(Copyright © Lin Manuel-Miranda 2016)

[Stingray2004]

Wow. What a wild ride that was last night. BC hasn't seen a minority since 1952 - 65 years ago when W.A.C. Bennett and the Socreds first came on the BC political scene. Somewhat unchartered territory for BC in terms of political history.

Interior BC saw swing toward BC Libs while Metro Van inner belt saw swing toward the NDP with BC NDP taking all of the BC Lib-held swing seats. Still analyzing/digesting the whole matter.

In terms of popular vote share (with changes from 2013):

BC Libs: 41% (-3%)
BC NDP: 40% (+-0%)
BC Greens 16.7% (+8.6%)
BC Cons: 0% (although likely ~0.3%) (-4.5%)

Prima facie, overall provincially, the BC Greens were the beneficiary of the 2017 vote loss by the BC Libs/BC Cons from 2013. But voter migration modeling is much more complex than that. Just keeping it simple.

My fave riding in 2013 was Saanich North & the Islands (long-time BC Lib riding) - a true 3-way race whereby each party received ~1/3 vote. Here are 2017 results (2013 changes in brackets):

BC Green: 41.7% (+9.7%)
BC NDP: 30.3% (-3%)
BC Lib: 26.9% (-6.1%)

As seen in many ridings across BC, here the BC Greens took twice as many disaffected 2013 BC Lib votes v. BC NDP voters. Something I suspect that BC Green leader Andrew Weaver is cognizant of.

Now we come to the 2017 election high-profile riding of Courtenay-Comox. After redistribution/boundary changes, this riding was a relatively safe BC Lib seat based upon 2013 transposed results. 2017 result with 2013 transposed result changes:

BC NDP: 37.15% (+1.8%)
BC Lib: 37.12% (-10.7%)
BC Green: 18.1% (+7%)
BC Con: 7.6% (+1.7%)

Looks like both the BC Cons and esp. the BC Greens took a chunk of 2013 BC Lib vote in this riding. Now the BC NDP leads by 9 votes at initial count. BTW, the BC Cons took 2,061 votes here last night.

Another 176,000 special ballots, absentee ballots and similar category ballots will be tabulated and included in final results in two weeks time, which equates to ~2,000 votes per riding.

The BC NDP had a net gain of 25 votes in this final count in 2013 under the old Comox Valley riding boundaries with strong BC NDP areas Denman/Hornby Isles and Cumberland since removed.

If the BC Libs win this seat after final recount, other recounts, then the BC Libs have squeaked by a bare majority of 44 seats to 43 seats for the combined opposition BC NDP/ BC Greens. But even that is problematic for the BC Liberals. The BC Liberals win need to appoint a speaker leaving a 43-43 tie vote in the legislature albeit the Speaker can break that tie vote under most circumstances.

Further problems arise... if one BC Lib MLA is sick, in the hospital, dies, stuck in traffic, etc. and unable to make a key vote in the legislature such as a Throne Speech, monetary bill, etc. with the opposition showing up - the gov't could fall (I don't know if Speaker is able to tie a vote under those circumstances).

OTOH, if the BC NDP retains Courtenay-Comox after final recount we are left with 43 BC Libs, 41 BC NDP, and 3 BC Greens.

So what happens next? Clark is still the preem. Weaver is now the king-maker and has numerous options at his disposal.

Weaver has a few options:

1. BC Greens act as opposition without formal support for BC Libs/BC NDP without bringing down minority gov't - abstaining from voting on monetary bills in exchange for some compromises (my gut instinct);

2. BC Greens form accord with either BC Libs/BC NDP - problematic for numerous reasons - his 2017 voters and potential pitfalls at next election siding with one side or the other;

3. BC Greens form coalition with one party or other - when gov't falls, BC Greens likely to be obliterated as these small 3rd parties have experienced obliteration in similar circumstances;

Now let's look at Weaver wants:

1. Ban on corporate/union party funding (non-negotiable) - BC NDP wants a legislative bill whereas BC Libs propose independent panel to review matter for recommendations;

2. PR - BC NDP proposes referendum on their own PR version. BC Libs non-committal;

3. BC Greens currently have 3 MLAs while 4 are required for official opposition party status, which brings additional funding, research staff, etc.

Right now, that's what Weaver has stated what is looking for.

Now who can Weaver work with? Interestingly enough, Global BC's Keith Baldrey interviewed Weaver a few weeks back and Baldrey asked Weaver point blank... "Who will you feel more comfortable supporting in a minority gov't - Clark or Horgan?" Weaver responded that "You're putting me on the spot... Horgan has exploded on me multiple times... he has to control his temper... he doesn't want to bring people to work with him... whereas with Clark you can have a respectful disagreement and it's not personal".

Frankly, that was quite a signal right there and I suspect Weaver is prepared to not oppose the BC Libs governing in minority with Weaver/ BC Greens abstaining from voting on monetary bills, which would bring down the gov't. Of course, with the BC Libs agreeing to his 3 main conditions listed above.

Just speculation and conjecture on my part. Weaver could support Horgan and BC NDP as well.

Minority gov'ts also have a shelf life up to 18 months and highly likely that we will be in election mode within that time frame. No party will attempt to bring down a minority gov't... during the interim... as the electorate will punish same. We will also likely be in campaign mode - as opposed to actual governing over the next 18 months as well - considerable political uncertainty as well.

Moreover, seems like the BC Libs still have a large war chest while the BC NDP/BC Greens have depleted their financial resources.

Interestingly enough, Insights West released an opinion poll today on this topic...

"In the online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians who cast a ballot in the provincial election, more than half of voters said they would feel upset if the BC Liberals assembled a majority (57%) or minority (53%) government. Similarly high proportions of voters would feel upset if the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) were to govern in a majority (52%) or minority (50%) scenario.

A formal coalition government with the BC Liberals and the BC Green Party would upset 49% of voters, while (45%) would be upset with a formal coalition government featuring the BC NDP and the Greens."

Suspect Weaver will walk a fine-line moving forward. My 2 cents.

[BobLoblawsLawBlog]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

There is DISTINCTLY 2 BC's
BC Election map
The Left Coast, and the Redneck interior

Everyone I don't like is a redneck