BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Their actions and non-actions - the latter of which is often more impactful with conservatives - have permanently altered the direction of this province.



Why are you so sure it will change?

Comox military base and absentee votes, also judicial recount.

This means that those 9 votes are extremely unlikely to hold up.

[Common Sense]

Originally Posted by a very long weekend

man, as a very outside observer, it looks like the incumbent fluked back into power on the vote split, like several people on here predicted would occur. darn. the NDP seems a lot more likely to invest in urban infrastructure, so that's the team i was hoping would win. people who voted for the green party (or the NDP in districts where the NDP wasn't going to win) should really take this as a lesson.

No, there was no vote splitting among between the Greens and the NDP. If that was the case, the BC Liberals would have won a majority and not a minority.

The Green Vote hurt the Liberals way more than the NDP. Look at the popular vote. The NDP stayed the same this year - 39%, same as 2013. The Liberals drop 4% to 40% from 44% in 2013. The Greens jump in popular vote from 8% to 16%. So the Liberals loss in popular vote is a result of a gain in popular vote for the Greens.

[Common Sense]

Originally Posted by Pinion

That's a weird way of looking at it considering very few conservatives agree with the Green agenda. I doubt many Liberal voters switched to Green. It's more like Liberal voters stayed home and opposition was more energized.
Also interesting that you are declaring a majority when no one else is.

Well, the popular vote for the Liberals fell, the NDP stayed the same, and the Greens went up. The only conclusion is disaffected Liberals voted for the Greens rather than the NDP.

Look, without a Conservative party to vote for, and you hate Christy Clark,
who are you going to vote for besides staying home? Are you going to vote NDP? No way.

The only alternative is the Greens who are not tied to the Unions, which conservatives hate more than the environmental movement.

[Bcasey25raptor]

There is DISTINCTLY 2 BC's
BC Election map
The Left Coast, and the Redneck interior

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

At the very least, the Libs now can't get anything done without compromises.

Assuming the seats stick after recounts the Greens and the NDP will almost certainly form a coalition and force Clark to resign and sideline the Liberals. Will be interesting the next two weeks. NDP Green coalition would be the most interesting result for BC possible. Some real change would take place as there are several major issues they both align on and would push through.

[dleung]

Not surprised Green votes came from would-be Liberals. The NDP base cares more about safety net than the environment. Remember their outrage when Gordo first brought the carbon tax? It's the wealthy who can afford to do anything about global warming

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by Common Sense

Well, the popular vote for the Liberals fell, the NDP stayed the same, and the Greens went up. The only conclusion is disaffected Liberals voted for the Greens rather than the NDP.

No, you're ignoring that most people don't vote at all. Previous Liberal voters stayed home, and hippies who didn't vote last time were energized.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Heres a question, if it does remain a Minority government, how long do you think it will last?

[red-paladin]

It should be reminded that a speaker needs to be elected from the members of the legislature, so a party needs 45 seats for a normal majority hold on the legislature. If they had 44 and elected a BC Liberal, that leaves 43 to pass bills. If they elect one of the opposition, the speaker could bring extra scrutiny on the government.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by red-paladin

It should be reminded that a speaker needs to be elected from the members of the legislature, so a party needs 45 seats for a normal majority hold on the legislature. If they had 44 and elected a BC Liberal, that leaves 43 to pass bills. If they elect one of the opposition, the speaker could bring extra scrutiny on the government.

The NDP and Greens would be absolutely crazy to accept the Speaker position, because it completely weakens them. Votes would then be 44-42, so the Liberals could potentially lose one vote and still win. If a Liberal is the Speaker, votes are 43-43 (Speaker votes in case of ties) which means the Liberals can't lose any votes.

Someone made the point that Christy Clark only attended one or two Question Periods a week when the Legislature sat. Now she'd have to attend every one and be there for every vote, which can only be a good thing.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Comox military base and absentee votes, also judicial recount.

This means that those 9 votes are extremely unlikely to hold up.

Not only that, the Liberal candidate was previously the base commander. As I saw elsewhere, it all comes down to how much the military liked him.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Didn't think that it would happen... but Innovative Research did release the first and only CATI poll (expensive/accurate) of the 2017 campaign today. Decided results:

BC Lib: 38%
BC NDP: 33%
BC Green: 20.3%
BC Con: 6.3%
Other: 2.5%

The foregoing results are unprompted... IOW, no political parties mentioned. So what to make of the 6.3% BC Con vote? 2013 BC Lib CATI internals (unprompted) found:

1. 1/3 respondents had federal brand confusion;
2. 1/3 respondents parked vote with BC Cons until end of campaign when realize BC NDP might win and voted BC Lib;
3. 1/3 respondents actually BC Con voters;

These respondents don't even know just 10 BC Cons/87 ridings are on ballot.

Based upon other data points as well, have stated all along that this 2017 election is akin to a pre-1972 election... more particularly a 1969 election redux in terms of popular vote share (with names of parties changed today):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_1969

Well that didn't turn out to be so accurate, despite the expense!

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

BTW, back in 2013, on the Tuesday one week before e-day, I placed $1,000 (max. allowable) on the Majority Gov't Market when the Libs were at ~20%. Based upon obscure CATI data and other data points, I was very confident that the BC Libs had their 43 seats for a majority gov't. Bet paid off handsomely. Again, the problem with this market is that most purchase/sell "contracts" based upon public opinion polls, poll aggregators such as 308, etc. Poor/terrible infomration IMHO.

For 2017, was waiting until the "Majority Gov't Market" was at its lowest ebb for the BC Libs - so bought in Easter Sunday at 48% BC Lib majority - 3 separate accounts/3 legal entities for total of $3,000 (as max. allowable is $1,000). Will sit there until market closes on e-day.

So I guess BC Lib majority gov't depends on absentee ballots yet to be counted in Courtenay-Comox with 9-vote NDP lead. As well as my $3,000. Sigh. If riding result not over-turned my 2013 gains in election stock market will be wiped out in 2017 - a zero sum game I guess.

[lubicon]

Originally Posted by cornholio

Assuming the seats stick after recounts the Greens and the NDP will almost certainly form a coalition and force Clark to resign and sideline the Liberals. Will be interesting the next two weeks. NDP Green coalition would be the most interesting result for BC possible. Some real change would take place as there are several major issues they both align on and would push through.

My assumption is the Lt Governor would ask the party with the most seats to form a government. Failing that their option would be to either dissolve the legislature and call another election or ask someone else if they can form one. The NDP and Greens cannot just unilaterally form a coalition and take power.

In other words the government serves at the pleasure of the Queen and it is the Queen (or her representative) who decides whom to ask to form the government.

[urbancanadian]

A good explainer wrt lubicon's comment:

http://https://stephentweedale.wordpress...iberals-didnt-win-a-minority-government/

[Migrant_Coconut]

Right. The Libs don't have a minority yet - not until the Assembly votes it so. Seems to be going that way, however, with Weaver cozying up to them over the past months.

[Tetsuo]

Looking over my Sauder account, completely forgot

"Bought 250 BC17MG.OTR contracts @ 3.00 ¢"

SSP Vancouver meetup Costco hotdogs on me ! move over JLousa

Really impressed with the NDP's showing in the metro, Nearly a complete Burrard Peninsula sweep. Seems like the promise to get rid of tolls paid off in Surrey/Tri-cities.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Tetsuo

Looking over my Sauder account, completely forgot

"Bought 250 BC17MG.OTR contracts @ 3.00 ¢"

SSP Vancouver meetup Costco hotdogs on me ! move over JLousa

Really impressed with the NDP's showing in the metro, Nearly a complete Burrard Peninsula sweep. Seems like the promise to get rid of tolls paid off in Surrey/Tri-cities.

I'd love to take you up on costco hotdogs

[Sheba]

I figured I'd pull these numbers from Elections BC. It doesn't seem like the Greens are as much of a fringe party as online news comments (gack) make them out to be. It would be interesting to compare the numbers to last election.

Posted alphabetically based on which party 'won' the riding (seeing as these aren't the final numbers) where there wasn't a huge gap between the second and third party.

Cowichan Valley: 10,669 (G) 8,965 (N) 7,943 (L)
Oak Bay-Gordon Head: 13,843 (G) 6,482 (L) 6,229 (N)
Saanich North and the Islands: 13,425 (G) 9,761 (N) 8,654 (L)

Kamloops-South Thompson: 14,409 (L) 5,479 (N) 5,214 (G)
Kelowna-Lake Country: 13,834 (L) 4,753 (N) 4,416 (G)
Parksville-Qualicum: 13,605 (L) 8,476 (N) 7,671 (G)
West Vancouver-Capilano: 12,215 (L) 4,874 (N) 4,067 (G)
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky: 9,649 (L) 6,447 (G) 6,068 (N) *

Esquimalt-Metchosin: 10,803 (N) 6,564 (L) 5,814 (G)
Nelson-Creston: 7,159 (N) 4,891 (L) 4,770 (G)
New Westminster: 12,923 (N) 6,358 (G) 5,333 (L) *
Powell River-Sunshine Coast: 11,846 (N) 5,717 (L) 5,629 (G)
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant: 13,667 (N) 3,561 (G) 3,454 (L) *
Victoria-Beacon Hill: 14,476 (N) 8,274 (G) 4,296 (L) *
Victoria-Swan Lake: 12,181 (N) 6,826 (G) 3,642 (L) *

* Greens in second place

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by Tetsuo

Looking over my Sauder account, completely forgot

"Bought 250 BC17MG.OTR contracts @ 3.00 ¢"

SSP Vancouver meetup Costco hotdogs on me ! move over JLousa

Really impressed with the NDP's showing in the metro, Nearly a complete Burrard Peninsula sweep. Seems like the promise to get rid of tolls paid off in Surrey/Tri-cities.

So when is the meet up?