Stadiums and Arenas of Canada part 2

[blueandgoldguy]

Originally Posted by Nathan

The stadium is basically the only thing holding an Atlantic franchise back in the CFL. I feel like if the NHL said you have a team if you want (the way the CFL has intimated), Halifax/Nova Scotia would jump at the opportunity and fund it.

Funding for a stadium or arena is no small thing though. A CFL stadium would probably be $150 - $175 million at this point just to meet minimum specifications for revenues. A new 15,000 seat arena would probably be over $300 million at this point. The demographics in Halifax sure aren't attractive in Halifax and the Maritimes either. Extremely little to no growth in the provinces, older population, limited corporate base (much smaller than Winnipeg and Ottawa) and the number of people who have upper-middle income salaries (would be required to buy a large percentage of the mid and upper tier price points in the arena) is small.

A CFL team might be a possibility down the road, but there is no way Halifax would be able to support an NHL team in our lifetimes if ever. The fact no rumors have trickled out regarding a potential ownership or new arena as is usually the case with these hypothetical teams further solidifies this belief.

[blueandgoldguy]

Originally Posted by Oilkountry

Please drop the sask/NHL pipe dream

No, Sask could not support an NHL team. keep in mind their is less people in both major cities combined then Winnipeg. This isnt the CFL where you have to draw 30,000 people 9 times a year. This is 15,000-20,000 people 41 times a year. I don't beleive the respective cities have enough corporate support to carry the load they would need to nor they they have the population/building/nor perspective owners to make this happen. Not to mention players nor NHL would ever want to be there. Plus Canada has 3 markets that are more deserving and far more attractive on a financial level.

Yes, pretty much this. It is asinine to use the support a CFL team receives in Regina (which is a recent phenomena as evidenced by the two fundraisers to save the team in the 80s and 90s)as compelling evidence that Saskatoon would be able to support an NHL team.

One league has 9 home games per year. The other has 41 home games per year.
One league requires an average ticket price of $40 - $50 for viability while the other requires an average ticket price of $90 - $100.
One league has the majority of its games on the weekend during the summer/early fall increasing the viability of wide-ranging season ticket base (though it should be noted even 70 - 80% of the Rider ticket base is in the city of Regina itself). The other has the majority of its games on weekdays in the winter which limits the number out-of-town ticket buyers.

The airport is another issue with its lack of connecting flights even more problematic than Winnipeg. It's something that tends to get glossed over when discussing the logistics of an NHL team in Saskatoon.

No hypothetical owner has stepped up to pursue this hypothetical team either. If there was anyone remotely interested AND had the financial wherewithal, something would have trickled out to the media by this point. Suggesting that potential owners were frustrated by the veto from the NHL for relocating a team to Saskatoon in the 80s and that this serves as the primary motivation for them NOT to pursue a team is highly questionable. The far greater likelihood for zero pursuit is the lack of an NHL-caliber arena and the small corporate and population base.

Places like Quebec City (with their NHL-ready arena and well-known ownership group) and southern Ontario (which could support an additional two NHL teams) have the population base and corporate support necessary to support an NHL team long term.

As for the Rush, yes, the city has done an admirable job of supporting the team so good for them. However, it hasn't even been two years since the team relocated to Saskatoon so let's cool the jets. Let's see how well they are supported 5-10 years from now when the novelty has worn off and the team struggles on the field of play. History has shown that many of these NLL teams have started off hot in many markets around North America only to struggle financially within a few years (and in some cases fold or relocate). I'm not saying this will happen in Saskatoon but let's wait and see how things develop.

[blueandgoldguy]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

http://calgaryherald.com/sports/hockey/n...-urges-calgary-to-work-towards-new-arena

Bettman againlobbying for a new arena in Calgary. He even met with the mayor... my take on this, while I don't agree with using tax payer dollars for professional sports, especially for multi-millionaire owner and players, I even moreso don't agree with using tax payer money to fund things like bike lanes that only a few hundred people use every year (there are are streets where I haven't ever seen bikers on the, shaganappi/Northland drive), art projects like the blue ring in airport trail, peace bridge, etc. So if the city is willing to spend millions of dollars on things like those example, that'll be used by only a fraction of the hundreds of thousand of spectators the would use the new rink, then id rather that money be allocated to a new rink rather than those other money pits... it's either they spend wasteful money on those wasteful amenities that so few people use, or spend it on something the entire city c can use, for more than just hockey, like concerts.

Those supposed wasteful things you are ranting about will cost a fraction of what a new arena would cost the people of Calgary. You also grossly exaggerate the number of people you use these bike trails (a simple people counter would prove your claim of a few hundred people wrong) and would "use" the new arena (only a fraction of the city would "use" it). I put "use" in quotations because people have to pay for the privilege of entering the arena to sit and watch pro athletes while eating excessive amounts of alcohol, sugary drinks and deep-fried food whereas a good bike trail may potentially reduce the number of vehicles on the road (commute by bike vs. car) and provides the additional benefit of exercise all for no additional cost to the user. Imagine that! Now continue with the rant of wasteful amenities.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

The demographics in Halifax sure aren't attractive in Halifax and the Maritimes either. Extremely little to no growth in the provinces, older population, limited corporate base (much smaller than Winnipeg and Ottawa) and the number of people who have upper-middle income salaries (would be required to buy a large percentage of the mid and upper tier price points in the arena) is small. ... A CFL team might be a possibility down the road, but there is no way Halifax would be able to support an NHL team in our lifetimes if ever.

This is reminiscent of the arguments against an NHL team coming back to Winnipeg that I read circa 2001, combined with some outdated received wisdom about the Maritimes.

Halifax doesn't have a more aged population than average in Canada. It grew by an estimated 8,200 people last year (NS up by 6,100). The reason for this is increased immigration, which is similar to what changed Manitoba's demographics in recent years. Looking at median family incomes, Halifax clocked in at $84,560 per year compared to $79,850 in Winnipeg or $75,270 in Toronto. Halifax isn't a low-income city. It has its own corporate base and there are big companies around the Maritimes that would support an NHL team there just like companies in Winnipeg or Ottawa.

One could argue that maybe the immigration stuff in NS is a one-off and it might not continue but you are arguing that there is no foreseeable way to imagine the economics working out. But they could work out if things carried along more or less as they are now, depending also on whether or not NHL teams get more or less expensive in the future.

I wouldn't bet money on Halifax getting an NHL team in the next 20 years, but I wouldn't bet much against it either, and I wouldn't bet anything against it happening during the remainder of my life (0-60 year range). I don't think anybody can make predictions like that with any certainty!

[blueandgoldguy]

Originally Posted by someone123

This is reminiscent of the arguments against an NHL team coming back to Winnipeg that I read circa 2001, combined with some outdated received wisdom about the Maritimes.

Halifax doesn't have a more aged population than average in Canada. It grew by an estimated 8,200 people last year (NS up by 6,100). The reason for this is increased immigration, which is similar to what changed Manitoba's demographics in recent years. Looking at median family incomes, Halifax clocked in at $84,560 per year compared to $79,850 in Winnipeg or $75,270 in Toronto. Halifax isn't a low-income city. It has its own corporate base and there are big companies around the Maritimes that would support an NHL team there just like companies in Winnipeg or Ottawa.

One could argue that maybe the immigration stuff in NS is a one-off and it might not continue but you are arguing that there is no foreseeable way to imagine the economics working out. But they could work out if things carried along more or less as they are now, depending also on whether or not NHL teams get more or less expensive in the future.

I wouldn't bet money on Halifax getting an NHL team in the next 20 years, but I wouldn't bet much against it either, and I wouldn't bet anything against it happening during the remainder of my life (0-60 year range). I don't think anybody can make predictions like that with any certainty!

The percentage of people over the age of 65 is higher in Nova Scotia and the Maritimes than anywhere else in the country.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo31a-eng.htm

The Maritimes and its major cities are growing slower than anywhere else in the country so the gap is only widening. As time passes it would become even more difficult and unlikely that the city could support an NHL team as the financial wherewithal of Halifax will only diminish compared to the smaller markets.

Winnipeg has twice the population base of Halifax, is growing at a faster rate and has a significantly larger corporate base. That and previous membership in the NHL allowed them back into the league...well that and having a wealthy ownership group and a capable NHL arena. And it still barely met the qualifications to support an NHL franchise. I don't see how the doubts of Winnipeg supporting an NHL team a few years ago are remotely comparable to Halifax as it exists today...it just not there.

There are simply too many other attractive markets out there, both in Canada and the US, with better economic measurables, more attractive demographics and better facilities for Halifax to have any hope of ever seeing an NHL franchise.

[blueandgoldguy]

For those who claim Hamilton would do nothing more cannibalize the Leafs current market (and I'm sure this is largely based on self-interest for one's own market for an NHL team no matter how remote that chance is rather than any painstaking research) people who have carefully researched this (ie. sports economists) believe the team would be a top-5 revenue generator for the league. Leafs would obviously remain a top-3 generator in that scenario with the Rangers and the Habs. No cannibalization necessary.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

The percentage of people over the age of 65 is higher in Nova Scotia and the Maritimes than anywhere else in the country.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo31a-eng.htm

Yep. The share of people 65 or older is 4% higher in NS than in Manitoba and 1% higher in NS than BC. So if the NHL were to institute a no-people-over-65 policy in the impossible hypothetical future that included a Halifax NHL team, said team might take a marginally disproportionate hit in attendance. The number of people over 65 matters for fertility but doesn't matter at all for immigration, which is what's driving population growth nearly everywhere in Canada.

The Maritimes and its major cities are growing slower than anywhere else in the country so the gap is only widening. As time passes it would become even more difficult and unlikely that the city could support an NHL team as the financial wherewithal of Halifax will only diminish compared to the smaller markets.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm

Winnipeg has twice the population base of Halifax

Sort of? I had a look at this tool: https://populationexplorer.com/. Both rows are to the same scale (there might be a way to draw better or worse boundaries, but they're probably not off by 50% or more).

[blueandgoldguy]

Originally Posted by someone123

Yep. The share of people 65 or older is 4% higher in NS than in Manitoba and 1% higher in NS than BC. So if the NHL were to institute a no-people-over-65 policy in the impossible hypothetical future that included a Halifax NHL team, said team might take a marginally disproportionate hit in attendance. The number of people over 65 matters for fertility but doesn't matter at all for immigration, which is what's driving population growth nearly everywhere in Canada.

The point is the percentage of older people in Nova Scotia is larger than anywhere else in the country and will only become more significant with time as the immigration rates there are lower there than most other places. Nova Scotia as a whole barely grew at all from the previous census by the way.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm

In that chart Halifax grew by 15,000 vs. Winnipeg's 41,000 in 4 years. If you look at provincial growth, in a comparable time span, Nova Scotia grew by less than 5,000 while Manitoba grew by 68,000 (almost all of which is in southern manitoba).

Sort of? I had a look at this tool: https://populationexplorer.com/. Both rows are to the same scale (there might be a way to draw better or worse boundaries, but they're probably not off by 50% or more).

According to Statscan Winnipeg had a population of 811,000 while halifax had a population of 425,000 - pretty close to double the number.

Winnipeg is the smallest city in the NHL and it is growing at a faster rate than Halifax. That applies to pretty much every city which has an NHL team. I don't think it really matters how much Halifax grows in the next 20 years as the gap between that city and all others (NHL cities) will only widen and would make it progressively more difficult to gain and support a franchise long term. They will be competing against cities with not only an increasingly larger population, but ones with a larger corporate base and upper-middle income earners as well.

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

interesting choice of wording..
I personally wouldn't want the extra expense of having an NHL team in Sask & don't think Sask will get an NHL team anytime soon but find people's self deprecating excuses of lack of Sask people's support the reason why as short sighted.

Self-deprecation is the act of reprimanding oneself by belittling, undervaluing, or disparaging oneself, or being excessively modest. I don't see how anyone is really doing that by providing backing to their reasoning? It's not self-deprecation to point out an obvious logistical issue with having an NHL team here, even if you disagree with it. There are serious issues with claiming that because Manitoba can support both a CFL and NHL team, Saskatchewan can. The people who support those two teams aren't driving six hours to attend a game and make it home since they're already from Winnipeg. If Saskatoon had a struggling team and I lived in Regina, what incentive is there for me to make that trip even if it's for one game?

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

^^ You've mentioned your feelings for the Saskatoon Blades before & I appreciate your despise and contempt for them, the team has missed the playoffs like 4 years in a row, I don't know how the team has really hurt you in the past, thats your business.

Blades suck, but this isn't even "hurt" me talking; by any metric, the Blades are an incredibly poor organization. If I can borrow a quote from Gretzky, they're a Mickey Mouse organization and this city deserves something better, which fortunately the Rush are.

Hurt me talking involves more swearing and harassing Lorne Molleken on Twitter.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

Winnipeg is the smallest city in the NHL and it is growing at a faster rate than Halifax. That applies to pretty much every city which has an NHL team. I don't think it really matters how much Halifax grows in the next 20 years as the gap between that city and all others (NHL cities) will only widen and would make it progressively more difficult to gain and support a franchise long term. They will be competing against cities with not only an increasingly larger population, but ones with a larger corporate base and upper-middle income earners as well.

Winnipeg and Halifax are estimated by Statistics Canada to have grown at the same rate last year. Back in 1991-2001, Halifax grew much faster than Winnipeg (+8% vs. +1.5%). It looks like the size gap between the metro areas was bigger in the 1970's than it is today. My impression is that population growth in Winnipeg and Manitoba took off over the last few years mostly due to the provincial nominee program. Nova Scotia has the same program now; immigration there has gone up seemingly in lock step with the raised provincial nomination cap.

You were making predictions about what might happen in our lifetimes (which I take to mean multiple decades) but then using statistical arguments based on a few years of data that fall apart over even a 10 or 20 year timeline.

I posted those maps to point out that the population distribution is different between NS or the Maritimes and Manitoba. Comparing CMAs doesn't really tell the whole story because the overall population density in NS and the Maritimes is much higher. There are probably more people in nearby rural areas, towns, and cities that would go to Halifax to see an NHL game, even if not enough of them commute into the city for their districts to count as part of the CMA. About 600,000 people live within an hour of the city.

Your argument about only the largest metro areas qualifying for NHL teams isn't really compatible with cities like Winnipeg or Edmonton getting teams in the first place. Clearly there's more at play. And there is no reason to expect that over a timeframe of decades the NHL will be so popular over all of North America that a team in a smaller city won't be viable. What if it becomes a more modest league 10 or 20 years from now?

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by someone123

Yep. The share of people 65 or older is 4% higher in NS than in Manitoba and 1% higher in NS than BC. So if the NHL were to institute a no-people-over-65 policy in the impossible hypothetical future that included a Halifax NHL team, said team might take a marginally disproportionate hit in attendance. The number of people over 65 matters for fertility but doesn't matter at all for immigration, which is what's driving population growth nearly everywhere in Canada.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm

It's 4.4 percentage points higher than in Manitoba not 4%. That is a significant difference. Does it matter in terms of attending NHL games? That would depend on the same factors as to why younger people attend games with disposable income probably being right near the top.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by someone123

Your argument about only the largest metro areas qualifying for NHL teams isn't really compatible with cities like Winnipeg or Edmonton getting teams in the first place. Clearly there's more at play. And there is no reason to expect that over a timeframe of decades the NHL will be so popular over all of North America that a team in a smaller city won't be viable. What if it becomes a more modest league 10 or 20 years from now?

Didn't Winnipeg and Edmonton originally get NHL teams because the NHL absorbed the old WHA? The size of the metros back then had nothing to do with it. If it did I doubt either one would have ever been considered.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

It's 4.4 percentage points higher than in Manitoba not 4%. That is a significant difference.

You are saying that you or anyone else can make predictions of the viability of NHL teams in future decades with such accuracy that a 0.4% (or 4.4%) difference in the size of the 65-and-up cohort has an impact on your secret formulas?

Why aren't you guys working for the NHL instead of posting on SSP?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

Didn't Winnipeg and Edmonton originally get NHL teams because the NHL absorbed the old WHA? The size of the metros back then had nothing to do with it. If it did I doubt either one would have ever been considered.

If this were a factor in the Winnipeg Jets returning in 2011 then I'd say it substantially increases the chance of a team ending up in Halifax at some point, since it means that NHL teams can go to cities for reasons other than market size analysis.

The logic behind my forecasting is pretty simple. It is very hard to predict events even a few years into the future, let alone decades in the future. So you have to have really good evidence to be convinced that something is very unlikely to happen. Winnipeg and Halifax aren't that different as NHL markets. At most the are off by a factor of 2 or so. I don't think that difference is enough to argue that the idea of Halifax getting an NHL team is beyond the pale (for whatever reason; NHL teams become more plentiful, some people stop caring about hockey, Halifax grows a lot). If I had to completely make up probability for Halifax getting an NHL team within the next 40 years, I'd say 10%.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by someone123

You are saying that you or anyone else can make predictions of the viability of NHL teams in future decades with such accuracy that a 0.4% difference in the size of the 65-and-up cohort has an impact on your secret formulas?

Why aren't you guys working for the NHL instead of posting on SSP?

Where are you getting 0.4% from? The difference is 4.4 percentage points--19.44% vs. 15.03% which is huge. I suggest you study up on "secret" formulas to understand why this is a big difference.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by someone123

If this were a factor in the Winnipeg Jets returning in 2011 then I'd say it substantially increases the chance of a team ending up in Halifax at some point, since it means that NHL teams can go to cities for reasons other than market size analysis.

Of course there are other reasons. If market size was the only factor a place like Houston would have had a team ages ago and talk of putting a team in Quebec City would be a nonstarter.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

Where are you getting 0.4% from? The difference is 4.4 percentage points--19.44% vs. 15.03% which is huge. I suggest you study up on "secret" formulas to understand why this is a big difference.

Why is it huge, particularly in a country where demographic growth is dominated by immigration? I get the sense that you guys are engaging in post hoc analysis here.

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by someone123

If this were a factor in the Winnipeg Jets returning in 2011 then I'd say it substantially increases the chance of a team ending up in Halifax at some point, since it means that NHL teams can go to cities for reasons other than market size analysis.

The NHL was stuck in 2011 with a team in Atlanta that no one wanted to own and literally nowhere in North America that it could move other than Winnipeg, which had been an NHL city before, had an excellent ownership group that included David Thomson, and was also in the west, which allowed the influential Detroit team to achieve its goal of moving back into the eastern conference. It was a bit of a perfect storm situation. Quebec City hasn't been able to generate even a perfect breeze despite building an expensive arena and getting Peladeau and Mulroney involved. Halifax is probably a ways away ... CFL is doable but you'd need $200M plus for a stadium.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Andy6

Quebec City hasn't been able to generate even a perfect breeze despite building an expensive arena and getting Peladeau and Mulroney involved. Halifax is probably a ways away ... CFL is doable but you'd need $200M plus for a stadium.

I said earlier I hope, even if it becomes a possibility, that Halifax doesn't go the Quebec City route and build an expensive arena hoping to court a team. But that is different from believing that it could never happen.

Like I said another long-term possibility is that the fundamental economics or structure of the league somehow change. It's not at all far-fetched to imagine that a sport will go up or down in popularity, or that constraints around transportation, broadcasting, or something else will change. I am not sure I can predict what pro sports will be like 40 years from now. Will a bunch of people be plugged into VR for 16 hours a day? Will we be able to cheaply fly around in drones? How would that impact things?

One path to the stadium might be for a smaller but expandable facility to be built for some other reason (I'm not sure if a stadium could be shared between say soccer and football, but it could be built for the universities to use for football). That would reduce the amount of money that would have to be spent to turn the venue into a CFL-ready stadium specifically (one of the PR blunders of the pro-CFL crowd is that their infrastructure request got framed as a "CFL stadium", not as a sports facility widely useful to the city and region).

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

Yes, pretty much this. It is asinine to use the support a CFL team receives in Regina (which is a recent phenomena as evidenced by the two fundraisers to save the team in the 80s and 90s)as compelling evidence that Saskatoon would be able to support an NHL team.

maybe Winnipeg Jets should've had similar fundraisers during the same time period so that Winnipeg wouldn't have had to loose team in the first place.

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

average ticket price of $90 - $100.

Saskatchewan has more disposable income with average household income of $86,000/yr, Manitoba is $75,000/yr

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

(though it should be noted even 70 - 80% of the Rider ticket base is in the city of Regina itself)...

..so then you are saying it doesn't matter how broad Saskatchewan's audience base is anyway
Most of NHL season isn't during Winter (Dec 1 to Feb 28)
true 800,000 live within 45min drive of where Jets play in Winnipeg, and 800,000 live within 2 hour drive of Saskatoon. The extra 75mins is rather nominal considering commute time is more than a hour each & every work day for average Canadian.

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

The airport is another issue with its lack of connecting flights even more problematic than Winnipeg. It's something that tends to get glossed over when discussing the logistics of an NHL team in Saskatoon...

Quebec City's airport is same size as Saskatoon's
Quebec City's only year-round permanent air connection is to NYC, nothing non-stop even to a city like Boston. Saskatoon has year-round to Minni PLUS even more American connections during NHL season (Vegas, Phx)

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

...Places like Quebec City (with their NHL-ready arena and well-known ownership group) and southern Ontario (which could support an additional two NHL teams) have the population base and corporate support necessary to support an NHL team long term.

I'm curious to know what extra corporate support Quebec city has more than province of Saskatchewan?
.
.
again, I don't think Sask is going to get or are even interested in an NHL team, especially with Bettman at the NHL helm.
Winnipeg will probably loose the Jets a second time before Sask ever tries to buy a team again.