Quote:
Originally Posted by yyc_engineer
Do you guys think there is any room left for Encore growth south of the border in the short term (2017/18)? With the success of YYZ-BNA (Nashville), this got me thinking about what else could realistically be done with the 78 seaters in this time of abysmal exchange rates.
Some routes that come to mind:
YYC-GEG (Spokane)
YYC/YVR-SEA
YYC/YVR-PDX
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I will restrict myself to YYC related destinations. But generally speaking there is limited opportunity for Encore transborder growth for the following reasons.
GEG is an airline wasteland for everyone, exception is WN/Southwest. WN takes about 1.7 million pax per annum and the other 5 airlines split the remaining 1.4 million pax. I'm also unsure if the WN 1.7 million pax are all O&D GEG. WN likes to schedule milk runs, so the airplane runs SEA-GEG-BOI with most of the pax staying on the airplane at GEG.
The biggest problem with Spokane area is that the major economic generator is "boots on the ground" agriculture. Few head offices or regional offices to support a robust airline program beyond cheap trips on WN.
Most of the traffic history on YYC-GEG occurred prior to open skies. The only available route was YYC-GEG, but because of preclearance at YYC, once the airplane landed in GEG it could continue onto LAX, SFO, DFW, etc.
SEA and PDX are possible on Encore, but would require a tighter relationship with DL to become profitable.
A short term problem on YYC-SEA is that DL needs all the international pax it can get to bolster its argument for greater USCBP and airport processing capacity. If DL were to coordinate with WS, Encore pax will not be counted as DL pax. Therefore all flying must be done on DL metal. Once ground is broken on the new international arrivals facility, DL will have some more flexibility coordinating with their pax.
Overall I am pleased with the inclusion of BNA on WS. However I would have preferred ATL over BNA.
I could see PDX, however DL is launching PDX-LHR this summer and has long history on PDX-AMS. Again, a tight coordination with DL is required to make this route work for Encore.
I don't see much transborder or domestic growth potential with WS continuing to be so independent. However a comprehensive joint venture with either AA or DL opens the door to many avenues for growth. I believe that DL is the better partner for the following reasons:
- DL all ready has joint ventures with other airlines, Virgin Atlantic and Aeromexico (new development.
- Route networks are more complementary between DL and WS.
- DL's CEO (Ed Bastian) has publicly mused about placing a significant investment in WS once their hookup with Aeromexico is complete.
Here is what could happen at YYC under a DL-WS partnership:
- Encore 2x day SEA (WS and DL fight it out with a divided AC and AS).
- Encore 3-5x week PDX (give AC some competition).
- Mainline 3-5x week ATL (connect to the heart of DL world, however BNA would probably be a casualty).
- Mainline 3-5x week DTW (this would replace ORD).
- Widebody LHR (replace LGW, go toe to toe with AC for the same costs as going to LGW, LHR slots provided by Virgin Atlantic).