Calgary International Airport II

[Plus15]

When I flew out transborder in December, the Park & Jet shuttle made a huge deal about what door WJ guests should get out at. He basically yelled at two WJ customers when they tried to get off at the second door, and told them to stay on. They seemed surprised and stepped back. I got off there and ignored his advice.

Having grown up in small town BC where airports literally have two doors, its always been sort of a running joke to me when small airports post airline signs at the curb (*cough YLW*). Because it matters so much that you go in the correct door! (which is likely twenty feet from the next).

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Plus15

When I flew out transborder in December, the Park & Jet shuttle made a huge deal about what door WJ guests should get out at. He basically yelled at two WJ customers when they tried to get off at the second door, and told them to stay on. They seemed surprised and stepped back. I got off there and ignored his advice.

Having grown up in small town BC where airports literally have two doors, its always been sort of a running joke to me when small airports post airline signs at the curb (*cough YLW*). Because it matters so much that you go in the correct door! (which is likely twenty feet from the next).

I suspect the intent was not to satisfy an urge to yell, but to try and be helpful (possibly resulting from feedback over years of doing the job). Be positive man, give people a break - especially where it is highly likely that the spirit and intent were positive.

[yyc_engineer]

Despite the economy, YYC continued to grow in 2016..hitting a new passenger record of 15.7M. http://www.yyc.com/News/tabid/91/article...nd-Cargo-Volumes-Grow-Again-in-2016.aspx

YUL was sitting at 16.6M at the end of November so needless to say we will be in 4th place again. If I had to peg the current mood at the airport, I would say it is "cautiously optimistic." For most people the novelty of the new terminal has probably worn off and now focus is on ensuring our International carriers and WestJet continue to maintain the existing level of service. AeroMexico will help and hopefully Hainan boosts frequency again in the spring/summer.

Overall, and given the state of affairs in the Alberta economy however, I don't see us hitting 20M until at least 2022 and not catching up to YUL again anytime soon.

[cyeg66]

Originally Posted by yyc_engineer

YUL was sitting at 16.6M at the end of November so needless to say we will be in 4th place again. If I had to peg the current mood at the airport, I would say it is "cautiously optimistic." For most people the novelty of the new terminal has probably worn off and now focus is on ensuring our International carriers and WestJet continue to maintain the existing level of service. AeroMexico will help and hopefully Hainan boosts frequency again in the spring/summer.

Overall, and given the state of affairs in the Alberta economy however, I don't see us hitting 20M until at least 2022 and not catching up to YUL again anytime soon.

I think YYC can settle into its new role of being in 4th place permanently. Changes in flight scheduling, changes to carriers' business models, changes in interline & alliance relationships, waking up to new economic realities (a big part of them political) going forward, it's my opinion that the best days are behind us. There will still be prosperity, naturally, but the gains will be less significant than that of true international hubs, those that have large population bases AND continue to draw more connecting passenger traffic. This new terminal has done nothing to help matters, unfortunately. What a dog's breakfast. Frankly, Canada would be well served by 2 major international hubs, but there happens to be 3, so growth on that side of the ledger will likely be anemic for the better part of a decade. Without new destinations coming online, growth can only be organic, home grown if you will. Not being a Debbie Downer, just my 2c.

[yyc_engineer]

Originally Posted by cyeg66

I think YYC can settle into its new role of being in 4th place permanently. Changes in flight scheduling, changes to carriers' business models, changes in interline & alliance relationships, waking up to new economic realities (a big part of them political) going forward, it's my opinion that the best days are behind us. Without new destinations coming online, growth can only be organic, home grown if you will. Not being a Debbie Downer, just my 2c.

Agreed. It's not debbie downer-ish, it's reality. I have lost count of how many of my friends are unemployed right now and none, none of them have traveled in the last year save for family commitments.

Originally Posted by cyeg66

Frankly, Canada would be well served by 2 major international hubs, but there happens to be 3, so growth on that side of the ledger will likely be anemic for the better part of a decade.

I would argue this is already the case. Is YUL really an international hub for AC? Save for a handful of Europe/North Africa flights the true Eastern hub is YYZ.

YVR is growing hand over fist and will continue to for the foreseeable future. Together, YYZ and YVR are becoming the true anchors of Canada's aviation network. Even WestJet is starting to realize that and I wouldn't be surprised if we see more existing or new flights on Mainline and Encore slowly moved over from YYC to YVR. There is still a lot of potential WS growth to Mexico and even the US (Seattle, Portland, Sacramento) that YVR is in a better geographic location for. If WestJet to Asia ever happens it will be from YVR not YYC.

2017 should be an interesting year. We really need the dollar to get back up, traffic to the States has taken too big of a hit in the last few years.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by cyeg66

I think YYC can settle into its new role of being in 4th place permanently. Changes in flight scheduling, changes to carriers' business models, changes in interline & alliance relationships, waking up to new economic realities (a big part of them political) going forward, it's my opinion that the best days are behind us. There will still be prosperity, naturally, but the gains will be less significant than that of true international hubs, those that have large population bases AND continue to draw more connecting passenger traffic. This new terminal has done nothing to help matters, unfortunately. What a dog's breakfast. Frankly, Canada would be well served by 2 major international hubs, but there happens to be 3, so growth on that side of the ledger will likely be anemic for the better part of a decade. Without new destinations coming online, growth can only be organic, home grown if you will. Not being a Debbie Downer, just my 2c.

I'm a little more optimistic about the future for YYC.

First of all, Canada has and will always have four hubs in this country. Where the differences breakdown is at the airline level.
- AC has YYZ and YVR as primary hubs with a french hub in YUL. For purposes of this discussion I will consider YYC to be a focus city.
- WS has hubs in YYC and YYZ. The rest are pretty much focus cities.
- TS has hubs at YUL and YYZ.

YYC is a hub in the country context because WS has a hub at YYC.

If we were to apply the country hub definition from Canada to the USA, there would only be hubs where 2 or more of the US3+3 (US3+3 are AA/DL/UA + WN/B6/ and merged AS/VX) are located. Specifically the following cities would be hubs:
- JFK (AA, DL, B6),
- ORD (AA, UA)
- LAX (AA, DL, UA)
- SEA (DL, AS)
- SFO (UA, AS)
- DEN (UA, WN)
- PHX (AA, WN)

EWR, MIA, DFW, ATL*, IAH, MDW, MCO, etc. are all hubs for only one of the major airlines.
* ATL gets an exception as WN has all but announced that ATL is dehubbed. ATL has gone from their largest operation at the time of their merger to barely in 10th largest city.

Secondly, there are paths to victory of 3rd place for YYC. Specifically,
- Anything happens to TS (the airline) and YUL would likely see the pax difference with YYC evaporate overnight. TransAt lost money in 2016 when everyone else made money, that is risk factor that cannot be ignored.
- WS international widebody has a lot more uplift potential for YYC than for other big hubs.
- It is unlikely that WS will ever have a principle hub at YUL. The most optimistic scenario for a WS YUL hub is a purchase of TS (Airline or whole company) by WS. However to improve yields and put TS at the same level of return on invested capital as WS, any takeover scenario would have to contemplate a transfer of aircraft from YUL to the western hub of the merged airline.
- YEG has 1.4 million international and transborder pax. I think that YYC could pick up half that traffic in the coming years and another equal size traunch of domestic traffic from YEG. Between YXE, YQR, and YWG there are 6.5 million pax, I think YYC could net another 500k to 1m pax from these groups. Get another 500k to 1 million from regional prairie and YVR pax and YYC would have an additional 2.5 to 5 million additional pax. These prairie pax would be double counted at YYC due to the inflationary effect of connection traffic vs O&D.

To be clear, there is still a lot work ahead for YYC to regain and solidify the 3rd spot. There are minor but important adjustments to the terminal complex. Customer Service at the airport has to get better. None of the issues are unmanageable or require a large capital investment to fix.

Some perspective on YYC new terminal problems in relation to other airports:

YYZ spent the period from 2004 to 2013 working its way out of financial insolvency despite astronomical airline fees. Even today, while YYZ T1 requires concourse G, its too expensive to build so YYZ must make do with cheaper options to handle the pax and airplane traffic.

DEN had a 2 year delay and ongoing problems for the first 5 years of its operation. Again astronomical fees kept most airlines and pax away.

Berlin Brandenburg is the definition of disastrous terminal development. Want more information, google "Berlin Brandenburg Delay" and curl up with a case of Berliner Weisse (a pale, sour beer common to Berlin area). Once you get into the tale, your face will be as pale and sour as the beer.

[Johnny Aussie]

http://www.yyc.com/Portals/0/MEDIA/Media-PassengerStats/br_paxtotal.pdf

Ended the year on a slightly down note as December saw a 0.3% decline in overall traffic compared to Dec 2015.

The only bright spot is Int'l.

Dec comparison YOY

Overall down 0.3% to 1.29M
Domestic down 1.8% to 902K
Transborder down 3.1% to 237K
International up 15.1% to 153K

Full year comparison YOY

Overall up 1.32% to 15.68M
Domestic up 1.66% to 11.15M
Transborder down 3.41% to 2.95M
International up 8.67% to 1.58M

Despite the optimism looking at these numbers.... Based on what's coming online at YUL the gap between 3rd and 4th will only widen for the foreseeable future... With YVR's growing strength as well will only make it tougher for YYC.

[Bokimon]

The numbers are actually impressive despite how bad things are in the city right now. How are all these people still traveling when so many are out of jobs? Don't tell me most of these are connecting pax from other cities filling in the gaps that us locals have vacated..

I would like to see YYC take advantage of seasonal charter flights like what was done in the past by aggressively promoting our city (ok the Rockies) with Tourism Calgary/Travel Alberta to bring in the hordes of emerging market and fellow advanced economy demographics.
While we may lack the O/D pedigree of Vancity, we have a backyard which IMO is actually better than the mountains around YVR. This is the only way we can get an asian surge during the summer season which can include the only possible chance of an A380 ever visiting should these charter ops really fill up.

There would be years when we would have KE and JAL arriving several times a week for Jul-Aug and I believe those were also the years when the parks had record breaking attendance as well. The same could also extend towards other parts of the world too but asia seems most popular to bring.
I would also like to see YYC and the airlines tap into the inland Northwest just 1hr flight away which is Montana/Idaho/Washington. There are significant population catchment especially around the Spokane area that is nearing the 1 million people mark. (well I guess about 700k according to wiki) But then combine various places in Montana and its possible to get quite close to a potential market of 1 mills. Existing networks by the US carriers may pose a challenge but some Canadian competition is always good. For me personally I been to Spokane and Kalispell and I'm planning to go to Great Falls for 4 days this summer. I would love to see Canadians travel down there as an O/D destination for a weekend getaway. (provided travel packages are out there to lure us down for cheap rates and good natural amenities to match with the typical resort cities)

[MalcolmTucker]

At the airport this morning in the new terminal. No true Nexus meant it was the first time my shoes came off at an airport since 2015. Entry from US border protection to the duty free works well. I can see why in the international side the flow would be more bunched and not work as well. Also at this time of year/day there is way more families on the international side.

Also, the Sky Interior in the 737 seems to work well. Air Canada and WestJet will both have it pretty soon too.

[Bigtime]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-tourism-chinese-china-banff-1.3955549

A shortage of reasonably priced hotel rooms in the Rocky Mountains during peak travel seasons is just one of the hurdles to increasing the number of Chinese tourists, according to a report released by the Tourism Industry Association of Canada.

Visitors sometimes cancel entire plans to visit Alberta when they are unable to obtain accommodations in desirable destinations like Banff or Lake Louise.

Ottawa needs to streamline its "arduous" visa application process if it wants to increase the number of Chinese tourists coming to Canada, the report says.

The requirements to obtain Canadian visas are "cumbersome, lengthy and applications are often denied.

Lack of rooms and the visa process here certainly can't be helping things, one wonders if the Hainan flight would perform better if these hurdles could be overcome?

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-tourism-chinese-china-banff-1.3955549

Lack of rooms and the visa process here certainly can't be helping things, one wonders if the Hainan flight would perform better if these hurdles could be overcome?

I think that is part of it, but speaking quite frankly, there is an overall gap when it comes to nature tourism. If you go to places in different countries where there is animal / nature / eco tourism, there are circuits that are serviced by outfits that go to the historic sites and primary areas. Here there are companies, but they basically only go to their own places. Brewsters will only go to Brewsters things. Non-brewsters generally will not go there. Brewsters will not go to Burgeous Shale and talk about the world heritage site, etc. So it is not just about adding rooms, but improving things at a higher level. The hotels may not be part of this directly, but would need to reserve rooms for these outfits for the greater good (and they should get the best rates). It might also be interesting to have select locations only open via a tourism outfit trained to sensitivity, etc. In that way you open up parks, but in an extremely controlled manner. Yes it is pay for access, but there is a balance to be had. southern Alberta has a massive opportunity. It should also include indiginous, but not be a trip about indiginous. Maybe a village set-up for a three hour visit for a set price - something like that. Partial economic but also intended for education. These things can't be run by individual smaller businesses only in it for themselves. All of this with a one-stop-shop.

yada - yada ... of course, what would I know.

[cyeg66]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Despite the optimism looking at these numbers.... Based on what's coming online at YUL the gap between 3rd and 4th will only widen for the foreseeable future... With YVR's growing strength as well will only make it tougher for YYC.

This. ✔️
I just don't think there should be any talk about YYC ever regaining 3rd. Not only is it completely unimportant in terms of overall objectives, but the incumbent 3rd place holder has never had to overcome hurdles like this region is now having to. Let's just give that credit to a more diversified economy, amongst other uncontrollable factors. And it's fairly obvious where any Trans-Pac growth will go; Financially, and geographically, YVR is a century ahead.

[casper]

Originally Posted by cyeg66

This. ✔️
I just don't think there should be any talk about YYC ever regaining 3rd. Not only is it completely unimportant in terms of overall objectives, but the incumbent 3rd place holder has never had to overcome hurdles like this region is now having to. Let's just give that credit to a more diversified economy, amongst other uncontrollable factors. And it's fairly obvious where any Trans-Pac growth will go; Financially, and geographically, YVR is a century ahead.

There is no real competition between yyc and yul. One airport does not win business at the expense of the other.

[yyc_engineer]

Not competition per se, I think it's more about bragging rights - which in the big scheme of things are not that important. Continued growth and service to new markets it what's important.

I don't understand why AC Express or WS Encore does not have a daily flight to Spokane. This seems so obvious in my books, it's nearby and YYC can offer 1 stop connections to so many places not serviced by GEG. Not to mention business traffic between the two regions, my dad used to travel there regularly for work and always drove because YYC-SEA-GEG took "too long."

The Inland Northwest is beautiful and with the Exchange rate we should be targeting that market for connections to Europe and onward (a la YQG Windsor)

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Lack of rooms and the visa process here certainly can't be helping things, one wonders if the Hainan flight would perform better if these hurdles could be overcome?

The visa process is less of a concern for Alberta tourism than the lack of hotel rooms in bow valley corridor.

To be clear, the tourism report was a nicely and politically correct version of a longstanding requoest to commercially develop Banff national park for tourist purposes. Banff needs 10-15 new hotels along worth another 10-15 new hotels in Canmore. Kananaskis needs much more apdestination development before a big influx of hotel rooms.

The above mentioned hotel development would probably buy YYC nonstop seummer services to PEK, PVG, and maybe HKG. The problem is that tourism market needs to accept 750-1000 Chinese foreign nationals per day.

The hold up is Parks Canada. They don't want any development in or around Banff National Park. Forget about hotels for tourists, Parks Canada even wants to hold up much needed affordable housing for the struggling workers in Banff.

The biggest advantage of BC Toursim is that their major mountain resorts are not located in or near national parks.

[craner]

I used to fly Calgary to Spokane in the early '90s on United - is there no direct flight anymore ?

[Alexcaban]

Originally Posted by Cage

Secondly, there are paths to victory of 3rd place for YYC. Specifically,
- Anything happens to TS (the airline) and YUL would likely see the pax difference with YYC evaporate overnight. TransAt lost money in 2016 when everyone else made money, that is risk factor that cannot be ignored.
- WS international widebody has a lot more uplift potential for YYC than for other big hubs.
- It is unlikely that WS will ever have a principle hub at YUL. The most optimistic scenario for a WS YUL hub is a purchase of TS (Airline or whole company) by WS. However to improve yields and put TS at the same level of return on invested capital as WS, any takeover scenario would have to contemplate a transfer of aircraft from YUL to the western hub of the merged airline.

This is laughable, should lets say anything ever really happen to Transat the effect on YUL won't be as bad as you think. Needless to say AC is going after Transat's routes so they'd be there to pick up the extra flow. As for those handful of routes served 1-2x weekly the effect would be minimal.

As for Westjet we can agree that there presents at YUL is pathetic and that's putting it lightly.

[Bokimon]

Westjet buying Transat as a way to save that company is definitely far fetched but it would be a monster quake happening in the Canadian aviation industry if it ever were to.
I would compare this kind of move to an AC/CP merger which was IMO larger than the C3/Royal deal in the 1990's. Perhaps this is all a vicious cycle where we may be approaching that complete revolution towards that 'airline merger' tick mark.

We'll wait and see how this summer works out regarding TS, no more western Canadian coverage to europe will be noticeable around here but at least the other carriers like WJ will gladly fill in the void. Maybe even launch additional routes further down the road as I can see direct Scotland and Manchester returning in the foreseeable future.
The days of Mytravel, Monarch, Thomas Cook which had essentially kept these cities linked basically year round, is long long gone..

Parks Canada are perceived to be shrill and ultra conservative, almost in cahoots to the enviro activists while jacking up user fees left right and center each year.
I agree that more accommodations are sorely needed and has been for years. The best bet currently would be Canmore or K-Country development as that will at least get tourists to the foot of the door. But just as pressing is an inexpensive and reliable means of transportation between the various townsites and the major sights within the Banff/Jasper and Yoho parks. Right now nothing exists unless you buy expensive Brewster tour packages.
The closest such thing is the Banff bus that at least goes to Canmore. I believe our parks are vastly under utilized in promoting to the world out there, unless Parks Canada purposely does this to limit attendees..
At least there are several HI hostels scattered throughout both the Banff and Jasper parks. This really is for another topic but I can see how the way our national parks operate may impact the future growth of our international airport by deterring tourists to come visit.

[MalcolmTucker]

Rail is one way, but it will be expensive. Some sort of tourism user fee applied to hotel users to allows conservatives to feel ok about the amortized cost, along with 3 or four stations along the way in the park (some with a bus transfer, some like lake louise with something heavier akin to Banff's under study gondola).

[Bokimon]

^ Yup I would support the rail idea as being the best solution like how we see in europe.
Though for both commercial and freight I think the tracks would probably have to be twinned. User fees, as long as its within reason like what you see in comparable resorts etc is tolerable..
But not Airport improvement fee levels of amount! (unless its added over several nights)

Ok yyc topic question to ask of ye, I recently bought a new telephoto lens about 500mm, just thinking where I could go and take advantage of the rwy operations around the airfield. Noise abate would keep everybody on the 29 until what 8 or 9am?
It would make my life easier to force everybody on one rwy use..
Either way I can't wait to explore any new angles and compressed depth of fields that will result from my new one eyed monster.