LeBreton Flats 2.0 (RendezVous LeBreton) | Cancelled

[McC]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

But this is the last chance to build an NHL arena downtown. It has to happen this time or never.

This is a good chance, maybe even the best chance, but it's far from the last one. The Bayview lands, NRCan campus, Hurdman, even Lees... There are still several large sites in the core, with decent access to rapid transit and the Highway, that are planned for large-scale re-development, and that could have an NHL-sized arena incorporated into the project. And before you wring your hands and say "oh but those aren't downtown-downtown," sure, but neither was the Forum, and both the Bell Centre and the Skydome and ACC were in pretty empty (though central) parts of town when they were built. Downtown has since been re-developing around them. Our definition of downtown can be pretty elastic when we want it to be. What matters is that the location be central, accessible, and have opportunities for complementary development around it to build into an entertainment hub (it doesn't have to already be that hub).

[Kitchissippi]

Originally Posted by acottawa

A huge chunk of the value of the team is in the building and ancillary revenues. Teams that don't own their own arenas (Florida, Tampa, Columbus, etc) are near the bottom of team valuations. Sens are not going to move downtown to be a tenant in a devcore arena. If devcore wins some arrangement may be possible (like they sell or lease part of the land to the Sens), but may not be likely. .

Which means Devcore could potentially build an arena anyway and Laliberte could hold a Cirque du Soleil show there for 3 months a year and and for the rest, steal all the lucrative concert and events from the CTC and more with his pull in the entertainment business. That would drive the Sens valuation down and Melnyk would drop them while it's still good.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

Which means Devcore could potentially build an arena anyway and Laliberte could hold a Cirque du Soleil show there for 3 months a year and and for the rest, steal all the lucrative concert and events from the CTC and more with his pull in the entertainment business. That would drive the Sens valuation down and Melnyk would drop them while it's still good.

How many privately funded arenas get built with no sports team? Even in places like Hamilton, Winnipeg and Quebec where aspirational areans were built (with mostly government money) they had AHL or CHL teams to put in there.

If TPG Capital, Fosun Capital Group and Caisse de depot (the owners of Cirque since Laliberte sold it last year) think they can make money on a 3 month run of cirque in Ottawa then that might work, but since Ottawa is not last vegas I don't think they are going to sell a million cirque tickets a year. Otherwise they would be building an arena hoping to skim the concert and monster truck business from CTC. And if that happened Melnyk's best strategy would be to wait for the bankruptcy sale.

[AndyZagg]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

Which means Devcore could potentially build an arena anyway and Laliberte could hold a Cirque du Soleil show there for 3 months a year and and for the rest, steal all the lucrative concert and events from the CTC and more with his pull in the entertainment business. That would drive the Sens valuation down and Melnyk would drop them while it's still good.

Agreed. They could cripple the value of the Kanata property pretty quickly. Mind you it would be difficult for them to operate a stadium downtown without an NHL client for too long.

My dream scenario actually takes the RV stadium and plops it down somehow into where the "Auto museum" is (get rid of that thing). But I know this is not realistically what can happen.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by phil235

Franchise values have more to do with the market they play in than with arena ownership. A lease with good terms can be as valuable to a team as owning the building.

If you look at the list of valuations, small market, owner-occupied teams like Ottawa and Winnipeg are still worth more than larger market tenant teams. If you own the arena you get 100% of revenue, even a generous lease is less than 100%. Plus hockey is 41 home games a year (plus playoffs on a good year) so revenue from other events boosts valuations.

http://www.forbes.com/nhl-valuations/list/#tab:overall

[McC]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

Which means Devcore could potentially build an arena anyway and Laliberte could hold a Cirque du Soleil show there for 3 months a year and and for the rest, steal all the lucrative concert and events from the CTC and more with his pull in the entertainment business. That would drive the Sens valuation down and Melnyk would drop them while it's still good.

Those are some classic "muscle into the market" moves; as long as they're willing to take a bath on event revenues for a couple of years to undercut the CTC. Although Melnyk seems to me like the type that you don't want to back into a corner, that the harder you push him, the harder he'll fight back. On the other hand, there's only so much money. At the very least it might make for good TV.

[Acajack]

The more I think about it, the more I think that if Melnyk's bid doesn't get chosen, he's going to be in a really tight spot in the medium term.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by acottawa

If you look at the list of valuations, small market, owner-occupied teams like Ottawa and Winnipeg are still worth more than larger market tenant teams. If you own the arena you get 100% of revenue, even a generous lease is less than 100%. Plus hockey is 41 home games a year (plus playoffs on a good year) so revenue from other events boosts valuations.

http://www.forbes.com/nhl-valuations/list/#tab:overall

I think that all is true, but I would still contend that market size (that being hockey market size, not straight population) is a bigger influence on value.

No question teams want to control all revenue streams if possible, but the size of those revenue streams is key. If you can get a lease where you control most revenue streams in a good market (Detroit, for instance), your franchise value can still be high.

What teams really want is to offload as many capital costs relating to the arena as they possibly can, and retain as much revenue as they can. Probably all moot, as Melnyk is unlikely to get that kind of sweetheart lease from Devcore.

P

[TheGoods]

Not sure if this was mentioned, I haven’t been able to keep up with the post. What if Devcore wins and instead of buying the Sens, what I they offer Melnyk a partnership in the development, invest the current amount he was about to propose on RV, he gets to build the arena and outdoor space and gets a percentage of the overall profit.

It has been a while since I last looked at both designs but I still like the RV bid much more. It has the great outdoor space for pre and post-game parties that can hold 28k people, even have events on Canada Day, Innovation Pavilion, a central library, the aqueduct with the restaurants, cafes and retail all lined up, hotel, a Sensplex which would allow the Sens to practice next door and can hold events like the Bell Capital Cup and community use, affordable housing which can be built right away to create a community feel and the covered LRT.

The Devcore has the same items such as housing but no affordable housing, library and arena. It has Theatre of Sports and Entertainment, Ripley’s Aquarium (would love to have), world’s largest skateboard park (don’t care), Brewseum (would like), car museum (this is garbage, the collection is worthless and not real), a skydiving centre (one will also open in Gatineau before this).

[McC]

Originally Posted by phil235

No question teams want to control all revenue streams if possible,

That part is kinda weird, for me at least with the Sens. They seem to want to control all the revenue streams until they don't. They used to brag about how important it was that they had Capital Tickets, and controlled the ticketing infrastructure (and markup) for all events at the CTC. Presumably they sunk a lot into setting that system up and maintaining it, and that would have taken a while to pay off (and would be paying off now), but then they announce this year that they're partnering with Ticketmaster.

[HighwayStar]

Originally Posted by TheGoods

Not sure if this was mentioned, I haven’t been able to keep up with the post. What if Devcore wins and instead of buying the Sens, what I they offer Melnyk a partnership in the development, invest the current amount he was about to propose on RV, he gets to build the arena and outdoor space and gets a percentage of the overall profit.

It has been a while since I last looked at both designs but I still like the RV bid much more. It has the great outdoor space for pre and post-game parties that can hold 28k people, even have events on Canada Day, Innovation Pavilion, a central library, the aqueduct with the restaurants, cafes and retail all lined up, hotel, a Sensplex which would allow the Sens to practice next door and can hold events like the Bell Capital Cup and community use, affordable housing which can be built right away to create a community feel and the covered LRT.

The Devcore has the same items such as housing but no affordable housing, library and arena. It has Theatre of Sports and Entertainment, Ripley’s Aquarium (would love to have), world’s largest skateboard park (don’t care), Brewseum (would like), car museum (this is garbage, the collection is worthless and not real), a skydiving centre (one will also open in Gatineau before this).

This is absolutely the most useless part of the DV bid. It will create an enormous empty, windswept space... but will probably look cool from a distance.
DV should be rejected on this alone.

[AndyZagg]

Originally Posted by TheGoods

Not sure if this was mentioned, I haven’t been able to keep up with the post. What if Devcore wins and instead of buying the Sens, what I they offer Melnyk a partnership in the development, invest the current amount he was about to propose on RV, he gets to build the arena and outdoor space and gets a percentage of the overall profit.

It has been a while since I last looked at both designs but I still like the RV bid much more. It has the great outdoor space for pre and post-game parties that can hold 28k people, even have events on Canada Day, Innovation Pavilion, a central library, the aqueduct with the restaurants, cafes and retail all lined up, hotel, a Sensplex which would allow the Sens to practice next door and can hold events like the Bell Capital Cup and community use, affordable housing which can be built right away to create a community feel and the covered LRT.

The Devcore has the same items such as housing but no affordable housing, library and arena. It has Theatre of Sports and Entertainment, Ripley’s Aquarium (would love to have), world’s largest skateboard park (don’t care), Brewseum (would like), car museum (this is garbage, the collection is worthless and not real), a skydiving centre (one will also open in Gatineau before this).

Devcore also has a library in their plans as well as a FarmBoy, YMCA and French school. All of which would make for a nice community. Car museum is garbage though and a central piece of their proposal (which is a concern for sure).

[phil235]

Originally Posted by McC

That part is kinda weird, for me at least with the Sens. They seem to want to control all the revenue streams until they don't. They used to brag about how important it was that they had Capital Tickets, and controlled the ticketing infrastructure (and markup) for all events at the CTC. Presumably they sunk a lot into setting that system up and maintaining it, and that would have taken a while to pay off (and would be paying off now), but then they announce this year that they're partnering with Ticketmaster.

Yeah, that surprised me too. Pure speculation, but I would guess that either Capital Tickets wasn't overly profitable, or Ticketmaster made them a great offer.

Looking at the Capital Tickets site, it wouldn't be a big stretch to suggest that their systems required a big invesment in the near future to stay competitive (or really, to be competitive in the first place). Melnyk may not have wanted to spend that money there.

[TheGoods]

Originally Posted by AndyZagg

Devcore also has a library in their plans as well as a FarmBoy, YMCA and French school. All of which would make for a nice community. Car museum is garbage though and a central piece of their proposal (which is a concern for sure).

I did mention Library - The Devcore has the same items such as housing but no affordable housing, library and arena.

As for retail such as FarmBoy, I would bet that the RV bid would have a similar types of store, a must for the community. I will also bet you there will be a Shoppers Drug Mart, a Shawarma place (a must in Ottawa ), Tim Hortons, an LCBO, pet store, dentist, bank, dollar store, etc...

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by TheGoods

I did mention Library - The Devcore has the same items such as housing but no affordable housing, library and arena.

As for retail such as FarmBoy, I would bet that the RV bid would have a similar types of store, a must for the community. I will also bet you there will be a Shoppers Drug Mart, a Shawarma place (a must in Ottawa ), Tim Hortons, an LCBO, pet store, dentist, bank, dollar store, etc...

And a Winners. And a fake British pub.

[OTSkyline]

Speaking of bait and switch, how much will the teams be responsible to make sure their proposals are built as-shown?

I mean, there has to be SOME sort of responsibility no? What if DEVCOR wins and ends up building nothing but condos? OR RDV group wins but only builds the Arena and Condos and nothing else?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OTSkyline

Speaking of bait and switch, how much will the teams be responsible to make sure their proposals are built as-shown?

I mean, there has to be SOME sort of responsibility no? What if DEVCOR wins and ends up building nothing but condos? OR RDV group wins but only builds the Arena and Condos and nothing else?

Not sure what the NCC's policy is. Certainly for municipal projects (Performance Court, Tribeca) there has been little to stop developers from altering the deal (as Darth Vader would put it).

[AndyZagg]

Originally Posted by TheGoods

I did mention Library - The Devcore has the same items such as housing but no affordable housing, library and arena.

As for retail such as FarmBoy, I would bet that the RV bid would have a similar types of store, a must for the community. I will also bet you there will be a Shoppers Drug Mart, a Shawarma place (a must in Ottawa ), Tim Hortons, an LCBO, pet store, dentist, bank, dollar store, etc...

Maybe it is just the way you are using your punctuation, but I want to clarify that both the Devore bid and the RV bid (Melnyk's) have a library and an arena. RV has affordable housing, but that's a red herring. Devcore can put in affordable housing if need be (or they can be forced to). RV just already has an agreement on that.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by AndyZagg

Maybe it is just the way you are using your punctuation, but I want to clarify that both the Devore bid and the RV bid (Melnyk's) have a library and an arena. RV has affordable housing, but that's a red herring. Devcore can put in affordable housing if need be (or they can be forced to). RV just already has an agreement on that.

Affordable housing is not a red herring at all. Both teams are counting on revenues from the housing component to support the rest of the development. The cost of affordable housing is built into the model proposed by RV (hence the higher numbers of units). It would not be a simple matter for Devcore to include it, as it changes the finances significantly and would cut into the profitability of their proposal. They also have no partner that can execute.

The fact that RV has included significant amounts of affordable housing is one of the more attractive elements of their proposal.

[McC]

CCOC is really the only viable large scale affordable housing partner in town. Devcore could bring them in, but it would be a new thing, and Phil is right, it would have to be costed into the project, or they'd have to get new public funds to deliver.