PITTSBURGH | Development Rundown II

[WillyC]

Originally Posted by speagles84

On that note, I have yet to see any other story (besides the one already posted here) about the structure being too tall. Does anyone actually have the reason the article said?

I've tweeted Peduto about it a couple of times asking for more details, no response. Even asked if the rejection meant he was giving up on his goal for new housing and people in the city, that didn't even elicit a response. I guess my next one is going to have to be borderline trolling asking if we need a businessman to be our next mayor in order to "make Pittsburgh great again!" haha.

[WillyC]

Originally Posted by Austinlee

Between this and the 18 story highrise proposal in The Strip I am feeling very NNIMBY - No Nimby's In My Back Yard.

Tell me about it. A double whammy of regression. Sometimes I think this city is on the road to redemption... then sometimes I think it's time to stop fighting the wife's wishes and move.

[eschaton]

Regarding the MSA population shrinkage:

As much as I like Pittsburgh, I think it's important to realize that the City of Pittsburgh itself is basically split down the middle when it comes to densifying, improving neighborhoods versus neighborhoods in some state of decline. And that's just the core city - the outlying suburbs, and even more so the "exurbs" (which really aren't exurban except for a few townships) are all still in decline, with any growth basically stealing population from some other portion of the metro.

What Pittsburgh is seeing, for the most part, is the localized version of the "great inversion" which many major cities have seen over the last 30 years. In Pittsburgh the core growth seems more dynamic and widespread than elsewhere in the Rust Belt. This is in part due to our unique legacy as a city which saw comparably little white flight in relative terms, leaving us with a unique legacy of dozens of structurally urban working-class white neighborhoods which were prime candidates for gentrification. Other unique factors also played a role - for example, the conscious decision of City leaders in the past to have expensive garages downtown and to limit surface parking, resulting in a very intact Downtown core, and relatively robust transit demand. But really, the reasons Pittsburgh is such a great city today stem from these legacy elements of our history. In terms of the local job market, we're not too different from anywhere in the Rust Belt (or indeed, anywhere outside of the Sub Belt) which puts an upward limit on how much domestic migration we could ever expect to see.

As to the Garden Theater development, I can't think of anything more disheartening I've seen in the past year. I talked about it briefly with my wife tonight (she works for Rothschild Doyno, but didn't work on this project). She said there was a lot she wasn't able to publicly say, but did say something along the lines of "I hope those stupid NIMBYs like having a view of a vacant lot."

[Jonboy1983]

With Pittsburgh losing population, I'd like to think it could be NIMBYs leaving town to go find some place (and something) else to bitch about. They piss me off to no end! They are the reason why Pittsburgh is stuck in neutral.

If you're among the folks who have an issue with why Pittsburgh seems to lag behind other metro areas and yet you complain about new development(s) coming into the city, um, I hate to say it but you're part of the problem. If you don't like it, then leave and go some place else.

That, my friends, is how I feel about NIMBYs. They are narrow-minded feckless excuses for existence who do nothing to bring any added value to their neighborhoods. Pittsburgh seems to have more per capita than just about anywhere else...

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Jonboy1983

With Pittsburgh losing population, I'd like to think it could be NIMBYs leaving town to go find some place (and something) else to bitch about. They piss me off to no end! They are the reason why Pittsburgh is stuck in neutral.

If you're among the folks who have an issue with why Pittsburgh seems to lag behind other metro areas and yet you complain about new development(s) coming into the city, um, I hate to say it but you're part of the problem. If you don't like it, then leave and go some place else.

That, my friends, is how I feel about NIMBYs. They are narrow-minded feckless excuses for existence who do nothing to bring any added value to their neighborhoods. Pittsburgh seems to have more per capita than just about anywhere else...

According to the Trib, one of the two NIMBYs who made the legal challenge actually lives in NYC, and just owns a house here. Which makes it all the more incredible.

[hammersklavier]

Originally Posted by eschaton

According to the Trib, one of the two NIMBYs who made the legal challenge actually lives in NYC, and just owns a house here. Which makes it all the more incredible.

*le palm meet le forehead*

Absurd. Just absurd.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by Jonboy1983

With Pittsburgh losing population, I'd like to think it could be NIMBYs leaving town to go find some place (and something) else to bitch about. They piss me off to no end! They are the reason why Pittsburgh is stuck in neutral.

If you're among the folks who have an issue with why Pittsburgh seems to lag behind other metro areas and yet you complain about new development(s) coming into the city, um, I hate to say it but you're part of the problem. If you don't like it, then leave and go some place else.

That, my friends, is how I feel about NIMBYs. They are narrow-minded feckless excuses for existence who do nothing to bring any added value to their neighborhoods. Pittsburgh seems to have more per capita than just about anywhere else...

I personally don't have a problem with NIMBYS. However, I believe if you don't want progress and change, the city is not the place to be one. Armstrong County would be a fine place for that type of attitude, but not Allegheny Center or anywhere in Allegheny County for that matter.

[Minivan Werner]

^I agree. I can't imagine how people get upset about tall buildings being built in a major city. It's not like a highway on-ramp being built in their backyard in Moon Twp. or something.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Minivan Werner

^I agree. I can't imagine how people get upset about tall buildings being built in a major city. It's not like a highway on-ramp being built in their backyard in Moon Twp. or something.

This all just drives home why zoning as it developed in the U.S. is just a terrible process. Two individuals who can pay for a lawyer shouldn't trump everyone else. They wouldn't if it wasn't for these idiotic things like height limits and parking minimums existing.

[Austinlee]

Originally Posted by eschaton

According to the Trib, one of the two NIMBYs who made the legal challenge actually lives in NYC, and just owns a house here. Which makes it all the more incredible.

This is an honest question: How are two people in a neighborhood of thousands (Mexican War Streets) and the greater neighborhood (Northside of 100,000+) able to thwart $50 million developments? Surely real estate development doesn't rely on 100% community approval. That is an impossible standard. What gives?

[Wave]

Notes regarding this. I don't think it's really all that bad:

1. The leapfrogging of other metros has been predicted to happen mid decade since the 2010 census came out. this is not a surprise at all and those are four of the fastest growing metros in the nation. All were predicted to pass Pittsburgh about now.

2. Allegheny County, though down in 2015, at this pace, would end the decade with 1% overall growth, so poised to have it's first population increase in five decades. Reversing a five decade trend of losing population is quite a major turning point. The city of Pittsburgh should follow suit the next census as well also reversing, in this case, a sixty year trend of losing population. This, of course, is incredibly positive and was also predicted to happen.

3. The region continues to grow from the hollowed out inside outward. The housing starts and construction boom in the core urban area will eventually trickle out to the county (already has) and the metro. A strong, vibrant urban core creates quality of life for the entire metro leading to jobs and growth. The new housing construction in the city of Pittsburgh is also attracting a higher earning, younger demographic-(family starters), all which bode well for population and economic growth in the core & beyond.

4. The metro still has one of the largest 65+ contingencies in the nation. (maybe the largest) which obviously seriously constrains natural growth (as opposed to in-migration). The only counties in the metro with less than 17% of the population over 65 are allegheny, butler and washington, the three counties that are, SURPRISE, growing. Allegheny county's population and particularly the city of Pittsburgh continue to trend younger gradually and as they do, the natural increase will "flip" from negative to positive.

5. Once that happens, the population will have sustained growth assuming our economy, one of the stronger in the nation, and in particular certain factors (affordability, jobs, etc.) continue on a positive path.

Originally Posted by Austinlee

Shit.

Census shows population decline in Pittsburgh region
March 24, 2016 12:08 AM

http://www.post-gazette.com/local/region...n-Pittsburgh-region/stories/201603240067




Everybody needs to read this article. It's pretty much just the facts and figures.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by Wave

Notes regarding this. I don't think it's really all that bad:

1. The leapfrogging of other metros has been predicted to happen mid decade since the 2010 census came out. this is not a surprise at all and those are four of the fastest growing metros in the nation. All were predicted to pass Pittsburgh about now.

2. Allegheny County, though down in 2015, at this pace, would end the decade with 1% overall growth, so poised to have it's first population increase in five decades. Reversing a five decade trend of losing population is quite a major turning point. The city of Pittsburgh should follow suit the next census as well also reversing, in this case, a sixty year trend of losing population. This, of course, is incredibly positive and was also predicted to happen.

3. The region continues to grow from the hollowed out inside outward. The housing starts and construction boom in the core urban area will eventually trickle out to the county (already has) and the metro. A strong, vibrant urban core creates quality of life for the entire metro leading to jobs and growth. The new housing construction in the city of Pittsburgh is also attracting a higher earning, younger demographic-(family starters), all which bode well for population and economic growth in the core & beyond.

4. The metro still has one of the largest 65+ contingencies in the nation. (maybe the largest) which obviously seriously constrains natural growth (as opposed to in-migration). The only counties in the metro with less than 17% of the population over 65 are allegheny, butler and washington, the three counties that are, SURPRISE, growing. Allegheny county's population and particularly the city of Pittsburgh continue to trend younger gradually and as they do, the natural increase will "flip" from negative to positive.

5. Once that happens, the population will have sustained growth assuming our economy, one of the stronger in the nation, and in particular certain factors (affordability, jobs, etc.) continue on a positive path.

I did a comprehensive analysis of trying to determine why the Pittsburgh MSA is continuing to lag in population gains. It seems to me we should have at a MINIMUM least a small gain instead of a small decrease in population with the most development the region has seen in 35+ years.

Using the numbers/estimates from the census Bureau, I broke each county in the metro down to the municipal level - from there, I split the municipalities into either part of the continuous Pittsburgh Urban Area or Rural/outside urban area. It seems that although at the county level and MSA level we are still slightly losing population, we are GAINING at the urban area level.

No true surprises there. As you said, the core is growing, but the outer lying regions are dragging the smaller gains down.



PITTSBURGH URBAN AREA
2000 Population: 1,779,969
2010 Population: 1,734,869 (-45,100 or -2.53%) *Less than the MSA level drop percent wise
2014 Population: 1,742,985 (+8,116 or +0.47%)

RURAL PORTIONS OF MSA
2000 Population: 654,427
2010 Population: 621,725 (-32,702 or -5.00%) *MORE than the MSA level drop percent wise
2014 Population: 612,715 (-9,010 or -1.45%) *MORE than the MSA level drop percent wise





URBAN PORTIONS:
ALLEGHENY URBAN AREA (Entire county, with the exception of Forward Twp, Fawn Twp, and Frazer Twp)
2000 Population: 1,277,400
2010 Population: 1,219,268 (-58,132 or -4.55%)
2014 Population: 1,227,368 (+8,100 or +0.66%) *Over a 5.00% change

WESTMORELAND URBAN AREA
2000 Population: 221,889
2010 Population: 222,249 (+360 or +0.16%)
2014 Population: 218,697 (-3,552 or -1.60%) *Major contributor to the loss right now

WASHINGTON URBAN AREA
2000 Population: 100,222
2010 Population: 110,126 (+9,904 or +9.88%)
2014 Population: 111,852 (+1,726 or +1.57%) *Slowing down a bit, but actual sustainable growth

BUTLER URBAN AREA
2000 Population: 43,666
2010 Population: 53,640 (+9,974 or +22.84%)
2014 Population: 56,223 (+2,583 or +4.82%) *Continued boom in Southern Butler County

BEAVER URBAN AREA
2000 Population: 134,830
2010 Population: 127,773 (-7,057 or -5.23%)
2014 Population: 127,079 (-694 or -0.54%) *Population hemorrhaging seems to be over in Beaver County

FAYETTE URBAN AREA
2000 Population: 0
2010 Population: 0 (0 or 0.00%)
2014 Population: 0 (0 or 0.00%) *Continuous urban development does not reach Fayette County

ARMSTRONG URBAN AREA
2000 Population: 1,962
2010 Population: 1,813 (-149 or -7.59%)
2014 Population: 1,766 (-47 or -2.59%) *Only Freeport Borough is part of the Pittsburgh Urban Area






RURAL PORTIONS:
ALLEGHENY RURAL AREA (Just Forward, Fawn, and Frazer Townships)
2000 Population: 7,561
2010 Population: 6,909 (-652 or -8.62%)
2014 Population: 6,879 (-30 or -0.43%) *Even Rural Allegheny County is stabilizing

WESTMORELAND RURAL AREA
2000 Population: 148,104
2010 Population: 139,807 (-8,297 or -5.60%) *Huge reason we lost so much last decade
2014 Population: 137,272 (-2,535 or -1.81%) *Major contributor to the loss right now

WASHINGTON RURAL AREA
2000 Population: 102,675
2010 Population: 97,694 (-4,981 or -4.85%) *A reason we lost so much last decade
2014 Population: 96,394 (-1,300 or -1.33%) *Still depopulating a fair amount. Includes the Mon Valley

BUTLER RURAL AREA
2000 Population: 130,417
2010 Population: 130,222 (-195 or -0.15%) *Without Slippery Rock, this would be higher
2014 Population: 129,180 (-1,042 or -0.80%) *Seems to be losing at a much higher rate now

BEAVER RURAL AREA
2000 Population: 46,582
2010 Population: 43,359 (-3,223 or -6.92%)
2014 Population: 42,885 (-474 or -1.09%)

FAYETTE RURAL AREA
2000 Population: 148,658
2010 Population: 136,606 (-12,052 or -8.11%) *Entire County, and largest reason for population loss
2014 Population: 134,086 (-2,520 or -1.84%) *Entire County, and a major reason for population loss

*I think they area overestimating Fayette County, which could hurt us more in 2020. Fayette County is a true Appalachian County, with widespread poverty and no development in the entire county.

ARMSTRONG RURAL AREA
2000 Population: 70,430
2010 Population: 67,128 (-3,302 or -7.59%) *Entire county, except Freeport. Very much like Fayette Co.
2014 Population: 66,019 (-1,109 or -2.59%) *Entire county, except Freeport. Seems to be stabilzing a bit.



SOURCE:
Incorporated Places and Minor Civil Divisions Datasets: Subcounty Resident Population Estimates: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 - U.S Census Bureau

[daviderik]

I would assume some of this stability or even growth could be due to the overall population growth of the US. I honestly don't know the details of statistical growth of US population compared to years past. But after surpassing 300 million most struggling metros would stabilize. Obviously people are mobile and vote with their feet and I am not discounting Pgh's ability to change and adapt to keep and attracted new people. And great jobs, new housing and reliable infrastructure goes a long way in doing that.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Austinlee

This is an honest question: How are two people in a neighborhood of thousands (Mexican War Streets) and the greater neighborhood (Northside of 100,000+) able to thwart $50 million developments? Surely real estate development doesn't rely on 100% community approval. That is an impossible standard. What gives?

I'm sure the details have to do with how Pittsburgh zoning code and Pennsylvania state law intersect. Essentially, it looks to me that while theoretically speaking the City has jurisdiction to grant variances to the rigid zoning codes, in practice any interested party can challenge, and (providing they pay a lawyer) force the City to observe the zoning code without variances. Thus the fault lies in having such a restrictive zoning code to begin with.

This isn't the first time that a handful of NIMBYs have destroyed projects of course. The grocery store on Penn Avenue was held up for years because 4-6 people near the intersection of Coral and S Pacific who didn't want to have freight trucks on their street. The Holy Family Church in Lawrenceville is still an abandoned mess because a few local residents basically weren't cool with allowing an apartment building in an area only zoned for (attached) single family housing. The fault is in the code, not in the City.

[Gilamonster]

And not only is Pittsburgh getting much younger, those young people are putting down roots. Pittsburgh has the 2nd highest percentage of people under 35 applying for home mortgages of any metro in the country behind only Boston.

http://www.businessinsider.com/cities-where-young-people-buy-homes-2016-3

[dfiler]

When looking at population trends it is important to look at natality/mortality and immigration/emigration separately.

It is my understanding that people are moving here at a higher rate than the overall population count suggests. Because of the significant elderly population in allegheny county, we are losing population to a high mortality rate. So while people are now actually choosing to move to Pittsburgh and stay in Pittsburgh, it is offset by a dying population. When our population of elderly reaches a typical level, all of a sudden the other trend will be far more obvious and impactful.

That distinction is less meaningful to developers today, they mostly care about demand from population and growth. But in the long run it will eventually matter. If looking at the desirability of living here and future population growth, my take is that the situation is more positive than is suggested by the yearly population count.

[eschaton]

A few interesting things in the latest zoning commission report.

1. A good number of infill houses (attached and detached) in the Middle Hill. The exact amount is not clear from the hearing number, but judging by the required number of parking spaces (which they are seeking to reduce) it's 53. There are a lot of variances which are being requested, but the Hill isn't known for having NIMBYs, so it might sail through. In general the variances being requested seem to be good - asking for reduction in parking minimums, and reducing setbacks to 10 feet (or less) on the front and sides of the properties.

2. A new six-story hotel (with two-story parking garage) on the 3000 block of East Carson Street.

[haimon]

http://shuc.org/2016/02/23/murray-and-forward-theres-a-lot-going-on/?platform=hootsuite
From the Sq. Hill Urban Coalition. Anyone know anything?

"The former Squirrel Hill Theater and the former karate building at Murray remain under agreement to buyers who appear to be moving forward with a substantial commercial development. No details are available yet. We look forward to working with them."

[Austinlee]

Couple pics of this new office building going up at the top of Greentree hill on I-376W. It's nice to see something new and high quality going up on such a prominent empty lot as out of towners come into the city to visit. The name is pretty dumb though. "The Bentley"






Rendering:


44,000 sq ft Class A office space
Source: http://www.loopnet.com/Listing/19437001/965-Greentree-Road-Pittsburgh-PA/

[guyFROMtheBURGH]

Is 'The Bentley' () building being built on spec? That can't be too common for the area.