Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by cornholio

These statistics are bullshit.

Ah yes. We have reached the point in the conversation where we resort to calling official Stats Canada and Government of Vancouver numbers "bullshit". And hey, no need to back up your own claims with any data. We will just trust that you know better than both Stats Can and the Metro Vancouver governing body.

If you want to know where they pulled the data from, read the report. I provided a handy source.

Note, places like Surrey and Coquitlam do fluctuate by thousands of units between census periods, but the trend in Metro Vancouver is what it is.

To do your own work for you, here is the documents for housing starts in metro Vancouver broken down by region:

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/r...cations/HousingStarts-SingleDetached.pdf

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional-planning/PlanningPublications/HousingStarts-Row.pdf

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/r...Publications/HousingStarts-Apartment.pdf

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/r...ications/HousingStarts-Semi-Detached.pdf

Note that single family detached housing starts include tear downs.

Also note, metro Vancouver remains the only municipality where this is the trend. Again, Toronto will start to see this trend very soon as well.

[vanman]

These statistics are bullshit. I have no idea where they got these numbers from.

The point is that these numbers are totally bogus. They have no credibility and I am very curious where they pulled them out of.

They are from MetroVancouver.org

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't think that controls on foreign ownership would be a magic bullet but I am also not convinced the trend is very healthy either.

In reality it will take a multi-variate approach to planning to help affordability in Vancouver. No doubt foreign investment controls, combined with higher taxes for unoccupied units, can be a valuable tool in that calculus. Like you said, it won't be a magic bullet, but it will do something.

What's the country going to look like in 30 years if this continues, the most valuable land is owned by Chinese investors, and the younger generation in BC has almost no net worth going into what for the previous generation was already well into their windfall retirement years?

In my opinion sustainable planning needs to factor in some amount of foreign investment, and if you are planning things in a sustainable way, affordability will be balanced in a region.

The fact is, the single family detached home land will be bought by the wealthiest people. Right now, that subset includes the world. If we turn off foreign investment, the subset will include the wealthiest Canadians. If you turn off investment outside BC, you now have the wealthiest British Columbians. If you turn off investment outside of Vancouver, you now have the richest of the 2.5 million people owning the 300k odd homes.

Also, some numbers. There are about 350k millionaires in Canada who have 1 million dollars, USD, in liquid assets. If we expand that to include illiquid assets, the number swells to over a million millionaires. These are the demographics that will be in control of the Vancouver real estate market. And there aren't even enough homes in metro Vancouver to be bought by Canadian millionaires who have 1 million dollars in liquid assets alone.

Again, the approach needs to be multi-variate, but when it comes to owning land in Vancouver, people need to be realistic, and committed to sustainable urban planning and development that doesn't involve living in whatnext's basement.

[ssiguy]

People will say that "it not just the Chinese who are buying expensive homes" and they are very correct. That said they are the cause of the market.

Many Caucasians are "cashing out" and buying expensive suburban homes {or increasingly moving further afield to Vic/Nan/Kel} with the obscene amount they got for their city shack and have a cool million to spare. The Chinese may not technically bought that large house but they allowed that person to "cash out" by buying their house at a ridiculous price.

My brothers real estate agent even said that she was "very concerned" about what is currently taking place. She has been in the biz for 30 years and says she has never seen anything like what is currently taking place. She said she is concerned about the vitality and future of the city when the young are giving up and getting out and the people replacing them care little for the city and even less about the communities they are impacting.

She also said that the market has gone from very strong to near "hysteria" as people are buying houses over a million with no more thought than buying their groceries. She said it's amazing how many people are treating housing as nothing more than a stock market commodity. She said many people are buying houses/land and expecting to sell them in a couple MONTHS with huge windfalls.

She actually used quite an interesting analogy. She said it's like those big events where the newest tech gadget comes out, The nearly all Chinese crowd lines up all night in the rain to wait for the doors to open and when they finally do they go hysterical trying to grab whatever they can pushing and shoving the staff in the process. When the normal people with lives {ie students, seniors, people with jobs & responsibilities} get some spare time out their busy lives to see the new gadget, the store has been stripped bare and the average consumer is quietly escorted to the door which promptly shuts behind them.

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by geotag277

Ah yes. We have reached the point in the conversation where we resort to calling official Stats Canada and Government of Vancouver numbers "bullshit". And hey, no need to back up your own claims with any data. We will just trust that you know better than both Stats Can and the Metro Vancouver governing body.

If you want to know where they pulled the data from, read the report. I provided a handy source.

Note, places like Surrey and Coquitlam do fluctuate by thousands of units between census periods, but the trend in Metro Vancouver is what it is.

To do your own work for you, here is the documents for housing starts in metro Vancouver broken down by region:

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/r...cations/HousingStarts-SingleDetached.pdf

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional-planning/PlanningPublications/HousingStarts-Row.pdf

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/r...Publications/HousingStarts-Apartment.pdf

http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/r...ications/HousingStarts-Semi-Detached.pdf

Note that single family detached housing starts include tear downs.

Also note, metro Vancouver remains the only municipality where this is the trend. Again, Toronto will start to see this trend very soon as well.

These files provide statistics on starts. The fact remains that Metro Vancouver did not have a drop in single family homes being available, they went up (thousands upon thousands of new detached homes have been built since 1996 and thousands of lots subdivided including right dab in the city of Vancouver) and those statistics that came from Metro Vancouver ARE bullshit. You know it I know it everyone knows it. How they can publish something like that is beyond me. Do they not check what they put out? Do they think people are going to look at it and say well looks like we have 15,000 less family homes in Metro Vancouver in 2016 then 1996? It makes me now question everything else coming from that organization.

I will however not dispute with you that Metro Vancouver lots are becoming smaller and detached home starts are going to be lower due to geography. Vancouver has had a price premium for a long time. Right now we are far beyond a price premium.

[dleung]

Yes cornholio, these stats are all generated by the evil Chinese money launderers! What new subdivisions are you talking about? Almost every new single family house built in Metro Vancouver is built on an old SFH. So are multi-family housing. Why would anyone be surprised at this?

Originally Posted by ssiguy

She said it's like those big events where the newest tech gadget comes out, The nearly all Chinese crowd lines up all night in the rain to wait for the doors to open and when they finally do they go hysterical trying to grab whatever they can pushing and shoving the staff in the process. When the normal people with lives {ie students, seniors, people with jobs & responsibilities} get some spare time out their busy lives to see the new gadget, the store has been stripped bare and the average consumer is quietly escorted to the door which promptly shuts behind them.

lol if you are gonna put fake anecdotes in the mouths of made-up people to make up for the credibility you lack, at least try containing that inner xenophobe. Your brother's realtor, lol. Since when do Chinese buy their gadgets locally? Have you seen the racial make-up of a black-friday-esque event around here? You're also getting your fake anecdotes mixed up - is your "brother" struggling to sell a $1.8m house or is he struggling to buy a $1M house? Seems like he'll have a lot of cash left over

Geotag, let's not pretend that 70% non-anglicized Chinese named buyers isn't significant. Even given some inaccuracy with the method, it's a big factor, along with the land constraints, lack of SFH, etc. It's always the polar extremes with you people.

[cornholio]

dleung, I am not sure if you are serious but I do understand you don't actually live in Vancouver. You live somewhere in China. You are jeopardizing your credibility by once again posting statistics that have been pointed out to be false. (I have taken a look at the source and its from Stats Can census and seems to be used out of context by Metro Vancouver)

Again there have been thousands of detached single family homes built in metro Vancouver every single year since 1996, and continue to be (if you seriously are asking me to point you to where then I must say you have zero familiarity with Metro Vancouver). There are still large swaths of "Urban Land Reserve" land that has not even been released for development yet because current available land is not built out yet. And those urban land reserves will be almost all single family homes. There are ongoing subdivisions of larger lots into smaller lots all over metro Vancouver. Even the city of Vancouver continues subdividing its lots. We wont run out of land to build new single family homes and lots to subdivide in our life times, but we will have smaller lots which has already happened (lots tend to now be 2,000 to 3,500 square feet instead of 6,000 to 10,000 like before.

There are hardly any single family homes that are converted to other uses. Almost all multifamily developments (with a few exceptions) take place on rezoned industrial and commercial land or are a result of redevelopment of existing multifamily zoned lots to higher densities.

As for your evil Chinese comment I suppose that gives a opportunity to share this story from today http://www.vancouversun.com/business/bla...isis/11797902/story.html?__lsa=1246-a3eb

[dleung]

Since you're clearly trolling now.... Vancouver's runaway housing prices are actually Quebec's fault

https://investmentimmigration.com/millio...m=syndication&utm_campaign=View-Original

[urbancanadian]

Hey guys. Just thought I'd point out that the numbers actually are off by a bit. Frances Bula had a piece on this a while back. I can't remember exactly the cause (and unfortunately I can't find the article), but the "drop" in SFHs had something to do with the way they were counted. I think SFHs with one or more "illegal" basement/secondary suites were counted as Single Detached, but since being officially legalized, they've been gradually moved into other categories.

So while Metro Vancouver still has the lowest SFHs per capita, the general number has increased. Again, I don't remember the exact cause, but it was something akin to that.

I won't go into too much detail with my views on the matter, but I'll just say that it's easy to see zoning as the cause or foreign investment as the cause. In reality, they are both relevant, among many, many, other factors. I don't think we'll see any improvement in the situation until there are a handful of major changes made, along with dozens of smaller new policies.

What's particularily stressing to me is that the issue is still bogged down in the blame game, as opposed to real proposals from people in a position to make a difference. Right now we have a right-wing provincial government blaming the City's policies, a left-wing municipal government blaming the Province's policies, both of which are being funded primarily through those who benefit from all this. Knowing the way politics tend to go in BC, I don't see much being done before it's too late.

[dleung]

Actually you're right. Secondary suites were legalized in 2004, between the 2001 and 2006 census, where you can see the sharp drop in SFH coinciding with a spike in "other ground oriented". In Vancouver proper and port Coquitlam, the overall number of SFH is indeed falling, however. And in most other municipalities besides Surrey and Langley, the increases have been minimal.

[ssiguy]

Yes, it is my "brother" and yes that's what his realtor said.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by urbancanadian

Knowing the way politics tend to go in BC, I don't see much being done before it's too late.

It's been too late for a long time.

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by dleung

Actually you're right. Secondary suites were legalized in 2004, between the 2001 and 2006 census, where you can see the sharp drop in SFH coinciding with a spike in "other ground oriented". In Vancouver proper and port Coquitlam, the overall number of SFH is indeed falling, however. And in most other municipalities besides Surrey and Langley, the increases have been minimal.

Please stop saying the overall number of SFH is falling. It is not. It is not even going to be falling in the city of Vancouver where lots continue to be subdivided. What you are saying is ridiculous. You have been duped by bad census data being used out of context by metro Vancouver, it happens. You don't live in Vancouver its ok. You have however showed me to not trust the data Metro Vancouver publishes. I mean either they are incompetent or willfully ignorant. Given their stated objectives I will put on the tin foil and go with the later.

Originally Posted by urbancanadian

Hey guys. Just thought I'd point out that the numbers actually are off by a bit. Frances Bula had a piece on this a while back. I can't remember exactly the cause (and unfortunately I can't find the article), but the "drop" in SFHs had something to do with the way they were counted. I think SFHs with one or more "illegal" basement/secondary suites were counted as Single Detached, but since being officially legalized, they've been gradually moved into other categories.

So while Metro Vancouver still has the lowest SFHs per capita, the general number has increased. Again, I don't remember the exact cause, but it was something akin to that.

I won't go into too much detail with my views on the matter, but I'll just say that it's easy to see zoning as the cause or foreign investment as the cause. In reality, they are both relevant, among many, many, other factors. I don't think we'll see any improvement in the situation until there are a handful of major changes made, along with dozens of smaller new policies.

What's particularily stressing to me is that the issue is still bogged down in the blame game, as opposed to real proposals from people in a position to make a difference. Right now we have a right-wing provincial government blaming the City's policies, a left-wing municipal government blaming the Province's policies, both of which are being funded primarily through those who benefit from all this. Knowing the way politics tend to go in BC, I don't see much being done before it's too late.

Well said. I agree its multiple problems at once. However the foreign money is the real gasoline on the fire as it distorts the entire market and cascades out to the suburbs. Residents trying to keep up, over leveraging them selves and speculating with record low interest rates is another problem. Better zoning would allow the market to be more flexible but it would not be a cure, rather a remedy.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by cornholio

dleung, I am not sure if you are serious but I do understand you don't actually live in Vancouver. You live somewhere in China. You are jeopardizing your credibility by once again posting statistics that have been pointed out to be false. (I have taken a look at the source and its from Stats Can census and seems to be used out of context by Metro Vancouver)...

To be fair, dleung doesn't live in China. He's from Vancouver.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by urbancanadian

Hey guys. Just thought I'd point out that the numbers actually are off by a bit. Frances Bula had a piece on this a while back. I can't remember exactly the cause (and unfortunately I can't find the article), but the "drop" in SFHs had something to do with the way they were counted. I think SFHs with one or more "illegal" basement/secondary suites were counted as Single Detached, but since being officially legalized, they've been gradually moved into other categories.

So while Metro Vancouver still has the lowest SFHs per capita, the general number has increased. Again, I don't remember the exact cause, but it was something akin to that.

I won't go into too much detail with my views on the matter, but I'll just say that it's easy to see zoning as the cause or foreign investment as the cause. In reality, they are both relevant, among many, many, other factors. I don't think we'll see any improvement in the situation until there are a handful of major changes made, along with dozens of smaller new policies.

What's particularily stressing to me is that the issue is still bogged down in the blame game, as opposed to real proposals from people in a position to make a difference. Right now we have a right-wing provincial government blaming the City's policies, a left-wing municipal government blaming the Province's policies, both of which are being funded primarily through those who benefit from all this. Knowing the way politics tend to go in BC, I don't see much being done before it's too late.

Thanks for clarifying that. I could tell those numbers weren't right, showing such a huge outright loss for SFH in the city. It's not surprising that geotag misinterpreted them with his limited knowledge of the Vancouver market,

[lio45]

Originally Posted by cornholio

As for your evil Chinese comment I suppose that gives a opportunity to share this story from today http://www.vancouversun.com/business/bla...isis/11797902/story.html?__lsa=1246-a3eb

The name of Hong Kong's richest man was "Ka-shing"?!? Seriously!?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by whatnext

To be fair, dleung doesn't live in China. He's from Vancouver.

Seems he lives in Toronto now, though his parents still own a Richmond SFH, if I recall correctly, so I imagine he goes to the lower mainland once in a while.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by lio45

Seems he lives in Toronto now, though his parents still own a Richmond SFH, if I recall correctly, so I imagine he goes to the lower mainland once in a while.

Leaving Vancouver for Toronto? That's the craziest thing I've heard in this thread!

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by urbancanadian

Hey guys. Just thought I'd point out that the numbers actually are off by a bit. Frances Bula had a piece on this a while back. I can't remember exactly the cause (and unfortunately I can't find the article), but the "drop" in SFHs had something to do with the way they were counted. I think SFHs with one or more "illegal" basement/secondary suites were counted as Single Detached, but since being officially legalized, they've been gradually moved into other categories.

So while Metro Vancouver still has the lowest SFHs per capita, the general number has increased. Again, I don't remember the exact cause, but it was something akin to that.

I won't go into too much detail with my views on the matter, but I'll just say that it's easy to see zoning as the cause or foreign investment as the cause. In reality, they are both relevant, among many, many, other factors. I don't think we'll see any improvement in the situation until there are a handful of major changes made, along with dozens of smaller new policies.

What's particularily stressing to me is that the issue is still bogged down in the blame game, as opposed to real proposals from people in a position to make a difference. Right now we have a right-wing provincial government blaming the City's policies, a left-wing municipal government blaming the Province's policies, both of which are being funded primarily through those who benefit from all this. Knowing the way politics tend to go in BC, I don't see much being done before it's too late.

Well, even if we were to accept that explanation at face value (this un-cited, hearsay, "he said she said" claim of an individual who claims to know more than Stats Can about the statistics), secondary suites were legalized in 2004, so this would have only affected the 2001 to 2006 transition. Even from 2006 to 2011, the city of Vancouver proper has lost single family detached homes, and the total counts are still down significantly from 1996 - a time when secondary suites were not nearly as popular.

At the end of the day, the number of single family detached homes between 2006 and 2011 stands at a paltry 13k units, the majority of which were created in Surrey, which is also the most reasonably priced region in Vancouver metro for single family housing stock.

I agree the biggest barriers to making progress in general on this topic is the general dysfunction in regards to even talking about it. And you can see evidence of the same on display in this very thread, with guys like whatnext and Pinion and others having absolute tunnel vision and doing more harm than good to their alleged goals of improving housing affordability to the region.

[Stryker]

A thread dedicated to the fact that canadian's are allowed to say common sense.


Having an open door policy where outsiders are allowed to consume horde resources of the locals is a shitty thing.

It doesn't get any more A+B than that.

There is a certain level of political nonsense that can't get past a very simple idea.

If outsider's come and use resources that are in abundance cool beans.

However if they horde something that is needed FAWK