Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[geotag277]

The main part I find disturbing is that foreign investors are being used in a sort of sleight of hand politics of division way to take everyone's eyes off the ball of zoning constraints and backwards planning with developers that are limiting the affordable housing available to people on the market.

Guys like whatnext love to talk endlessly about Chinese people being rude, coming in and taking all the properties by money laundering (ie. transferring their own money out of their own country), not respecting local laws - basically throwing spaghetti at the wall to slander an entire ethnicity so that he can achieve his goals of making sure wealthy Vancouver residents (wealthy in 1996 terms, not 2016 terms) can own the property and if they feel like it rent out their basements to lower income people. That is not a sustainable path to housing affordability in Vancouver, and it short changes the vast majority of individuals from having any path to meaningful home ownership.

If you are following American politics at all, it is almost like that guy who keeps talking endlessly about building that Wall.

Housing in Vancouver passed Toronto in the 90s. That happened. That was a sign that development constraints were a problem. Vancouver is the only major city that is losing single family detached housing stock and it is still one of the fastest growing cities in Canada. Back when guys like whatnext reminisce about how affordable housing was in Vancouver, it was smaller than the size of Ottawa is today, and it was still able to build more.

It is, at the end of the day, a total urban planning failure. It took until 2015 for a meaningful property development rule to be in place in New Westminster, which required developers build at least 10% three bedroom "family friendly" units instead of only small tiny high profit one bedrooms. Vancouver needs rules like that on a grand scale to get the housing built that meets demands and allows residents to meaningfully entire the market, instead of living in whatnext's basement suite praying that the sunshine will one day pour through that tiny north facing window.

Developers have no problems building new expensive towers in Vancouver like Trump Tower and Shangri-la - but the city needs to wake up and enforce some meaningful multi-family housing stock across the spectum get added every single year in the form of rules like New West which says you can't just be chasing a high profit margin feeding frenzy when you develop in this city.

The fact that so much of the discussion is on foreign buyers is taking everyone's eyes off the ball of what really matters. It's the politics of division, plain and simple. Unfortunately, as that Wall-obsessed political figure south of the border is proving all too well, the politics of division are extremely effective.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by rousseau

But again, Chinese immigrants generally aren't naming their Canadian-born children "Li Xian."

In the absence of a study, I will concede that it is simply your word against mine. A quora answer does not generally address a place as unique as Vancouver.

I lived there several years, and the cultural influence of China on Vancouver is huge. Likely the city in Canada that has the most amount of that kind of influence. I have met many people there who do not go by an anglicized name of any kind, and it isn't that out of the ordinary, especially for those with Chinese heritage.

I will also admit that I didn't exactly go around checking IDs, and I doubt you do either. Just because someone casually goes by an anglicized name in some circumstances doesn't necessarily mean that their official ID and the name they would sign on a document would align with that.

[rousseau]

It may be a tedious tangent to some, but just for the sake of more anecdotal evidence, check out the names in a story in Maclean's from several years ago about the touchy subject of non-Asian Canadian kids wanting to avoid schools with lots of Asian students like U of T, UBC and Waterloo because of the perception that they won't be any fun:

http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/too-asian/

The English usage of the ones with anglicized given names makes it clear that they were raised in Canada:

Frankie Mao
Susie Su
Jason Yin
Anthony Wong
Joyce Chau
Stan He
Peter Yang
Brian Cheung

These kids are almost certainly all first or second generation. However, one person in the story identified as a Chinese national goes by the name "Simon Wang." I think there's a high probability that he himself adopted the name "Simon," but "Simon" won't appear on any official documents registered with the university or government agencies, unless maybe it's in parenthesis.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

What Vancouver (and Toronto) needs to rebalance the supply of homes is vast neighbourhoods of 4 storey walkups like those found in Montreal. They don't have to be luxury units, just reasonably affordable condos and rental apartments. Remove most of those rubbish overpriced bungalows between BTC and MTC and replace with 4 storey medium density neighbourhoods while keeping the street grid/tree canopy intact.

Wouldn't do a hoot of good.

They would be bought up by foreign buyers en masse and then rented for a short time and then flipped.

The Marine Drive development has 200 units sold...........to only 70 people. Almost all buyers are Chinese either buying them online or by recent arrivals who have more money to launder.

My brother is desperately trying to find a decent house out here in SS/WR 25 km and one hour in rush hour to downtown for less than a million. He can get a couple of newer one's for around that mark but have no backyard as they aren't even full ownership but rather strata.

One strata house down the street, quite nice and large and is "feng shui" positive which ALL newer homes in Vancouver are or they won't sell unless the lot is big enough to tear down, was $988 {ALL homes in Vancouver end in "8" as it is a lucky number for the Chinese} rose to $1.1 last week and is $1.2 this week. He went to see it at the lower price but had some questions but the real estate agent couldn't speak one word of English.

[ssiguy]

Went to an open house for my brother who is selling and rebuying.

My brother has a mid-70 3 bedroom/3bath on a good size lot but just 1800 sq feet and no basement {few homes in BC have basements so you get half the square footage of a house in Ontario or Quebec} and is selling. A similar 70s home on similar lot was listed on a Thursday for $1.8 million and was sold by Saturday for $2.3. The buyer was of course Chinese.

[casper]

Originally Posted by cornholio

The slippery slope is to ignore reality. Chinese Canadians are by my experience by far the most angry, as they should be since they stand to lose the most for obvious reasons. Don't think their blind to this. The study showed that over 70%, 70, not 5 or 10 or 20, 70% of home purchases in a 6 month period in a section of Vancouver that saw the most rapid appreciation in prices were purchased by people with non anglicized mainland Chinese names. Are you saying this should be ignored? Because that is frankly a bloody insane statistic. for reference.

What margin of error is given on that 70%. Is it +/- 5 or 10 or 30. I think you are hard pressed to establish a confidence of error of such a study.

So, one region of the city is being dominated by one ethnic group. I don't understand what the problem is.

The region around Commercial drive had a lot of residents of Italian background. At one point in time Stevenston in Richmond had a dominant population with ancestory from Japan.

Go to other cities in North America and you have the same things. South Beach in Miami has a significant Cuban influx.

Originally Posted by cornholio

And please, I don't want to hear "but people are not anglicizing their names anymore". Just about every single person born in Canada with a few exceptions as I mentioned earlier is given a anglicized (or frenchified) first name, we all know this. If you don't have a anglicized first name you are not born here, for simplicity we can safely state this as a fact and ignore the 0.1% of exceptions. If you are not born here you immigrated here, like me, like my wife, like many Canadians. The immigration rates to Canada, and Vancouver and the source countries with exact numbers are public knowledge. We can take a population of immigrants from x country, and we know their immigrants because of their non anglicized names, and say x percent came this decade, x percent came that decade, this we know. In this case we know that most of the mainland Chinese immigrants with non anglicized names that purchased property in a part of west Vancouver in a 6 month period are either recent immigrants or foreigners. Its as simple as that. We have the data to put together and get within a decent margin of error rate. So yes this study clearly showed that foreign money plays a huge role in the Vancouver market, and most of that foreign money originates from China. This foreign money gets injected in west Vancouver and then cascades all the way to the distant suburbs, it distorts the entire market.

The point is the study was good. The methodology was good. The findings were remarkably shocking, yes shocking. You cant ignore it or bury it or discount it no matter how hard you try or want to.

I lived in Saskatoon for a time. When I went to buy a condo it was the peek of the boom. I was looking at new construction. My realtor had the MLS paper work that she would hand we as we walked through each of these brand new condos. Guess what, a good percentage of new never lived in condos coming onto the market were owned by numbered companies based in Ontario. Purchased by "foreign" (Ontario) investors pre-construction an then flipped for a quick buck when they were built. Was it shocking? No.

Am I shocked that many homes in Phoenix Arizona were purchased by "rich" Canadians from Alberta during the Alberta boom and the realty crash in Arizona? No. Am I shocked that now that the Alberta boom is over there are some of those owners who want to dump the property? No.

Am I shocked that many (or even) a majority of properties in Vancouver that are being purchased today are being purchased by people with Chinese sounding names? No.

What is the issue?

There are people from China who don't trust their home government and need a place to park that wealth. Canada, Australia and the US provide safety and a level of trust. Culturally they place strong confidence in real-estate. So we have property investors.

Other societies think of wealth preservation differently. Switzerland had developed and entire industry around storing the wealth of people who don't trust their home country government.

In places like India it is about gold.

[casper]

Originally Posted by cornholio

We know the history of immigration waves and we know people born in Canada have anglicized names (outside of a few east Indian communities who like pronounceable east Indian names). I mean all this knowledge is available. We know immigrants with non anglicized names report and in fact have lower incomes. We can be sure within a reasonable margin of error that owners of multi million dollar homes with non anglicized names have brought their money in from the outside, and we know approximately when they came, and the growth of money from where they came from. The methodology of the study is very good and gives a good idea of the reality. It doesn't give as hard numbers about individuals but it gives a good broad overview. I should also point out that me and my wife are both immigrants, my name is not anglicized though it is European, together we have 3 different nationalities and can have 4 if the fourth was applied for, and she is racially half east Asian. So don't think I am xenophobic or racist or anything like that. I say it how I see it.

I did not mean to suggest that anyone is xenophobic or racist. I am just not confident in the study methodology. I think qualitative statement that many or into a significant percentage of purchases are from Chinese backgrounds comes as no surprise. Many agents who work in this industry day in and out are saying the same thing. I am just not confident in a specific number based on the study methodology.

I am also of European background. Such a study would indicate I am of German background given my last name. However my background is southern Europe going back at least four generations.

[giallo]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

{few homes in BC have basements so you get half the square footage of a house in Ontario or Quebec}.

That's not true. While I grew up in a one story rancher, every single one of my friends' homes had a basement in Kelowna. Every single one.

The house I lived in Vancouver had a basement. My aunt and uncle's house in Coquitlam had a basement. My grandparents' home in Victoria had a basement......

[Metro-One]

Both of my childhood homes had basements, only one of my friends lived in a rancher, and I lived in two basement suits myself in Vancouver before I moved to Japan (where there really are no basements).

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by geotag277

Unfortunately, as that Wall-obsessed political figure south of the border is proving all too well, the politics of division are extremely effective.

Calling everyone racist is divisive. There are two problems 1) Our government's lax foreign investment regulations and enforcement of tax law 2) People willing to take advantage of them to an extreme. Both are to blame. Your side is finally losing this propaganda battle and it's nice to see.

And yeah all of my childhood homes in Vancouver (four) had basements.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Your side is finally losing this propaganda battle and it's nice to see.

What an interesting turn of phrase to fully repudiate the assertion that you have fallen for the politics of division: hook, line and sinker.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by geotag277

The main part I find disturbing is that foreign investors are being used in a sort of sleight of hand politics of division way to take everyone's eyes off the ball of zoning constraints and backwards planning with developers that are limiting the affordable housing available to people on the market.

Guys like whatnext love to talk endlessly about Chinese people being rude, coming in and taking all the properties by money laundering (ie. transferring their own money out of their own country), not respecting local laws - basically throwing spaghetti at the wall to slander an entire ethnicity so that he can achieve his goals of making sure wealthy Vancouver residents (wealthy in 1996 terms, not 2016 terms) can own the property and if they feel like it rent out their basements to lower income people.

LOL, in your long posting history of ludicrous statements that is one of most ridiculous. You caught me, I'm trying to shut down Chinese investment in Vancouver real estate to rent my basement suite.

I've been posting links to articles in major mainstream media. Sorry to feel you that is "spaghetti". Maybe you'd like to share with the group why you are so determined to shutdown debate by playing the racism card?

Originally Posted by geotag277

It is, at the end of the day, a total urban planning failure. It took until 2015 for a meaningful property development rule to be in place in New Westminster, which required developers build at least 10% three bedroom "family friendly" units instead of only small tiny high profit one bedrooms. Vancouver needs rules like that on a grand scale to get the housing built that meets demands and allows residents to meaningfully entire the market, instead of living in whatnext's basement suite praying that the sunshine will one day pour through that tiny north facing window.

Developers have no problems building new expensive towers in Vancouver like Trump Tower and Shangri-la - but the city needs to wake up and enforce some meaningful multi-family housing stock across the spectum get added every single year in the form of rules like New West which says you can't just be chasing a high profit margin feeding frenzy when you develop in this city.

The fact that so much of the discussion is on foreign buyers is taking everyone's eyes off the ball of what really matters. It's the politics of division, plain and simple. Unfortunately, as that Wall-obsessed political figure south of the border is proving all too well, the politics of division are extremely effective.

What a great idea, because you know, Chinese investors won't be interested in those three bedroom suites. They'll just pass them right on by, leaving them for local wage earners.

You've already admitted you have just visited Vancouver once, you know absolutely nothing about the local real estate market here. Why don't you just stick to commenting about Calgary's collapsing market. Your on the ground insights will be much more meaningful when backed up with a little actual knowledge.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by whatnext

LOL, in your long posting history of ludicrous statements that is one of most ridiculous. You caught me, I'm trying to shut down Chinese investment in Vancouver real estate to rent my basement suite.

I never said or implied that. The assertion is that you think basement suites are a sustainable solution to Vancouver's housing problems, which I claim is absolutely absurd. For the record, your solution involves lower income people forever living in the floor below you, paying you rent. My solution involves giving them a meaningful path to home ownership by tearing down your inefficient use of land and giving them options.

I've been posting links to articles in major mainstream media. Sorry to feel you that is "spaghetti". Maybe you'd like to share with the group why you are so determined to shutdown debate by playing the racism card?

The classic playing the victim card. "Why are you trying to shut down my attempt to link rude behavior from individuals who happen to be Chinese to the housing market? It's all related!"

Just like Trump, who says banning all Muslims because they all hate America, and people are too afraid to say it but he isn't!

Classic politics of division.

What a great idea, because you know, Chinese investors won't be interested in those three bedroom suites. They'll just pass them right on by, leaving them for local wage earners.

Listen, let me explain something to you really simple. Real estate is supply and demand. Foreign investors increase the demand side of the balance. Therefore, foreign investors drive up prices in real estate markets. It doesn't matter if you are talking about Vancouver, BC, Calgary, AB or Lab West.

No matter what units are built in Vancouver, foreign investors will play a role in the demand side of the equation.

The fact of the matter is, multi family developments, such as townhomes and condos, are not appreciating any where near as quickly as single family detached homes, and that is entirely due to the land value and the horribly inefficient nature of single family detached housing. Single family detached housing stock is the only class of housing that is actually declining in absoute numbers in both Vancouver and Metro Vancouver - townhomes and condos are being built to supply new demand.

Vancouver is one of the fastest growing cities in Canada, and there is no more room to build new houses.

At the end of the day, your dream of having lower income people living in basements all across Vancouver is simply not a sustainable path to affordability.

You've already admitted you have just visited Vancouver once, you know absolutely nothing about the local real estate market here. Why don't you just stick to commenting about Calgary's collapsing market. Your on the ground insights will be much more meaningful when backed up with a little actual knowledge.

I think you are getting your "enemies" confused. I can understand, for someone as paranoid as you, who rails against people with certain kinds of names, and calls into question the motives of Canadian citizens who happen to be living in big bad China - I imagine all your "enemies" eventually turn into this rather abstract entity, such that a small part of you imagines that we are all one person, typing feverishly away in some dungeon in mainland China, furiously defending our Chinese overlords to maintain the status quo in Vancouver's real estate market.

The fact of the matter is, I have stated repeatedly, that I have lived in Vancouver for more than half a decade, and have watched the housing market there with much interest since then since I knew all along that something was very seriously wrong with the urban planning situation. There is no reason for Vancouver real estate, all things being equal, to exceed the value of Toronto real estate. Vancouver residents since the 90s have loved to say "well, it's because of the weather" or "it's so beautiful here people are willing to pay more". If that were true, real estate in Hawaii and San Diego would be more expensive than Manhattan.

It has long been the case that people are unwilling to give up on the dream and the goal of owing their own single family detached housing, and Canadians in particular are extremely slow to embrace the multi-family housing realities that a place like Vancouver is required to invest in to have a sustainable housing future.

People who are clinging to these unsustainable fantasies that every working professional in Vancouver will somehow be able to own and afford their very own plot of land are doing more harm than good in terms of affordability, and taking everyone's eye off the ball of the only path forward that will actually allow the majority of residents to have a meaningful path to home ownership.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by geotag277

I never said or implied that. The assertion is that you think basement suites are a sustainable solution to Vancouver's housing problems, which I claim is absolutely absurd. For the record, your solution involves lower income people forever living in the floor below you, paying you rent. My solution involves giving them a meaningful path to home ownership by tearing down your inefficient use of land and giving them options.

LOL, "path to home ownership", Thatcherism 101. Newsflash: some people will never be able to own a home. Reagan-era sloganeering notwithstanding, little boxes in the sky will be out of reach due to the cost of land and new construction. I don't know if you've got some guilt complex 'cause your family demolished an older home with a basement suite, or if you had a bad student experience with one during your 5 years here, but for many that is those suites are the last bastion of affordability in neighbourhoods close to employment or schools.

Originally Posted by geotag277

The classic playing the victim card. "Why are you trying to shut down my attempt to link rude behavior from individuals who happen to be Chinese to the housing market? It's all related!"

Just like Trump, who says banning all Muslims because they all hate America, and people are too afraid to say it but he isn't!

Classic politics of division.

Too funny. You seem to equate mainstream media articles with "attempts to link rude behavior from individuals who happen to be Chinese". Do you think the Globe & Mail and National Post have it in for Chinese people?

Originally Posted by geotag277

Listen, let me explain something to you really simple. Real estate is supply and demand. Foreign investors increase the demand side of the balance. Therefore, foreign investors drive up prices in real estate markets. It doesn't matter if you are talking about Vancouver, BC, Calgary, AB or Lab West.

No matter what units are built in Vancouver, foreign investors will play a role in the demand side of the equation.

The fact of the matter is, multi family developments, such as townhomes and condos, are not appreciating any where near as quickly as single family detached homes, and that is entirely due to the land value and the horribly inefficient nature of single family detached housing. Single family detached housing stock is the only class of housing that is actually declining in absoute numbers in both Vancouver and Metro Vancouver - townhomes and condos are being built to supply new demand.

Vancouver is one of the fastest growing cities in Canada, and there is no more room to build new houses.

At the end of the day, your dream of having lower income people living in basements all across Vancouver is simply not a sustainable path to affordability.

Let me explain something to you: Canadians and their governments are not under any obligation to provide housing as an investment vehicle for offshore interests. If demand from that sector is inflating costs for taxpaying Canadians, then shut it down.

Originally Posted by geotag277

I think you are getting your "enemies" confused. I can understand, for someone as paranoid as you, who rails against people with certain kinds of names, and calls into question the motives of Canadian citizens who happen to be living in big bad China - I imagine all your "enemies" eventually turn into this rather abstract entity, such that a small part of you imagines that we are all one person, typing feverishly away in some dungeon in mainland China, furiously defending our Chinese overlords to maintain the status quo in Vancouver's real estate market.

I guess you just let your mask slip, as I never mentioned that. Where is it you live again?

Originally Posted by geotag277

The fact of the matter is, I have stated repeatedly, that I have lived in Vancouver for more than half a decade, and have watched the housing market there with much interest since then since I knew all along that something was very seriously wrong with the urban planning situation. There is no reason for Vancouver real estate, all things being equal, to exceed the value of Toronto real estate. Vancouver residents since the 90s have loved to say "well, it's because of the weather" or "it's so beautiful here people are willing to pay more". If that were true, real estate in Hawaii and San Diego would be more expensive than Manhattan.

It has long been the case that people are unwilling to give up on the dream and the goal of owing their own single family detached housing, and Canadians in particular are extremely slow to embrace the multi-family housing realities that a place like Vancouver is required to invest in to have a sustainable housing future.

People who are clinging to these unsustainable fantasies that every working professional in Vancouver will somehow be able to own and afford their very own plot of land are doing more harm than good in terms of affordability, and taking everyone's eye off the ball of the only path forward that will actually allow the majority of residents to have a meaningful path to home ownership.

And you just go on contradicting yourself: "There is no reason for Vancouver real estate, all things being equal, to exceed the value of Toronto real estate." There is actually, and it's the flow of Chinese money into Vancouver versus the flow into Toronto (though that is changing as Vancouver's bones get picked clean).

Your main argument boils down to one tenet: Working Vancouverites should give up the dream of owning their own house because we're reserving all those to sell off to foreign nationals who have made their money collaborating with one of the most oppressive and polluting regimes on the planet.

So you think the 5 years you spent here once make you an expert in Vancouver's real estate problems? Not even close.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by whatnext

LOL, "path to home ownership", Thatcherism 101. Newsflash: some people will never be able to own a home. Reagan-era sloganeering notwithstanding, little boxes in the sky will be out of reach due to the cost of land and new construction. I don't know if you've got some guilt complex 'cause your family demolished an older home with a basement suite, or if you had a bad student experience with one during your 5 years here, but for many that is those suites are the last bastion of affordability in neighbourhoods close to employment or schools.

See folks? whatnext loves to talk about this underclass of individuals who will never be able to own a home, and we should just give up on them, to ensure the dreams of the wealthy few who can possibly afford their own land at one point in Vancouver have their wealthy goals attainable.

These underclass of lower income people who can never own a home will be happy in whatnext's basement suite, again, praying every day that some sunshine will flow through that north facing window.

Colorful rhetoric aside, having sustainable multi family developments will naturally keep rental rates in check. No one needs or is forced to own their own home in any case.

Too funny. You seem to equate mainstream media articles with "attempts to link rude behavior from individuals who happen to be Chinese". Do you think the Globe & Mail and National Post have it in for Chinese people?

I think Globe and Mail and National Post enjoy the advertising dollars that come from pandering to paranoid individuals such as yourself, yes.

Let me explain something to you: Canadians and their governments are not under any obligation to provide housing as an investment vehicle for offshore interests. If demand from that sector is inflating costs for taxpaying Canadians, then shut it down.

For the record, I have no issue with shutting down foreign investment. I have issue with your obsession with maintaining the status quo of preserving single family detached housing all over Vancouver, as if that was a sustainable path forward for affordable housing.

I guess you just let your mask slip, as I never mentioned that. Where is it you live again?

There you have it folks. The paranoid whatnext, so desperate to attach his paranoid delusions to me, has interpreted my ridiculous monologue as containing truth.

All jokes aside, you seem to have developed an unhealthy obsession with these issues which make you partly paranoid and delusional, which is obvious and you unfortunately "let slip" over and over and over again.

And you just go on contradicting yourself: "There is no reason for Vancouver real estate, all things being equal, to exceed the value of Toronto real estate." There is actually, and it's the flow of Chinese money into Vancouver versus the flow into Toronto (though that is changing as Vancouver's bones get picked clean).

Your main argument boils down to one tenet: Working Vancouverites should give up the dream of owning their own house because we're reserving all those to sell off to foreign nationals who have made their money collaborating with one of the most oppressive and polluting regimes on the planet.

My main argument actually boils down to one tenant: people like you are too obsessed with foreign investment and maintaining the unsustainable existence of single family detached housing. By rezoning and working closely with developers to provide a balanced number of multi family units across the spectrum, Vancouver can have sustainable development and keep run away prices from single family detached home land values in check.

All along I have had no issues with turning off foreign investment, my tenant says that won't do nearly enough on it's own to provide sustainable affordability for those in Vancouver.

To end, as a counter balance to all these shenanigans, I will provide some hard data.

In 1996, Metro Vancouver had 1.8 million residents. In 2016, Vancouver has exceeded 2.5 million people, almost twice as big.

This graphic shows dwelling types by structure in Metro Vancouver, taken from: http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/r...ingPublications/MV_Housing_Data_Book.pdf



Metro Vancouver went from ~315k single family detached houses in 1996 to house 1.8 million people to 301k single family detached homes in 2011 to house 2.3 million people. That is a 5% reduction in single family housing inventory to house 30% more individuals.

Vancouver city proper, went from 65k single family detached homes to 47k, a reduction of almost 30% in single family detached housing stock.

This is the only city in Canada where this trend is occurring. It will start to happen in Toronto very soon.

So sure, turn off foreign investment across Canada. As I mentioned before, that will reduce the prices of all properties across the country, as foreign investment is necessarily tied to the demand side of the real estate equation. But if you think that will lead in any way shape or form to a return to affordability in general for the land and single family detached housing in Vancouver you are delusional. The numbers speak for themselves, and it is absolutely inexcusable that people like whatnext are not only sticking their heads in the sand regarding this trend, they actively campaign to preserve the single family detached housing stock in Vancouver to the detriment of affordability for all residents.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by geotag277

See folks? whatnext loves to talk about this underclass of individuals who will never be able to own a home, and we should just give up on them, to ensure the dreams of the wealthy few who can possibly afford their own land at one point in Vancouver have their wealthy goals attainable.

These underclass of lower income people who can never own a home will be happy in whatnext's basement suite, again, praying every day that some sunshine will flow through that north facing window.

You.Just. Don't.Get. It.

I'm sure we would all like to join you in your fantasy world, where home ownership will magically occur for all. Until that happy day arrives, those of us living in reality acknowledge that some people will always be scraping by to make ends meet. For those people making low wages, basement suites can be the last truly affordable housing option, before ending up in an SRO. For students, they are often the only affordable accommodation when they can't get a place on campus.

Originally Posted by geotag277

There you have it folks. The paranoid whatnext, so desperate to attach his paranoid delusions to me, has interpreted my ridiculous monologue as containing truth.

All jokes aside, you seem to have developed an unhealthy obsession with these issues which make you partly paranoid and delusional, which is obvious and you unfortunately "let slip" over and over and over again.

Do you think I'm the only one here who notices how you always twist to evade that question?

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by whatnext

You.Just. Don't.Get. It.

I'm sure we would all like to join you in your fantasy world, where home ownership will magically occur for all. Until that happy day arrives, those of us living in reality acknowledge that some people will always be scraping by to make ends meet. For those people making low wages, basement suites can be the last truly affordable housing option, before ending up in an SRO. For students, they are often the only affordable accommodation when they can't get a place on campus.

As always, the most illuminating parts of your responses are those in which you pick and choose what you reply too. I see you very neatly cut out the relevant section of this reply, that is:

Colorful rhetoric aside, having sustainable multi family developments will naturally keep rental rates in check. No one needs or is forced to own their own home in any case.

Do you think I'm the only one here who notices how you always twist to evade that question?

Case in point: out of everything I said, this is the part you choose to respond too. The part which indulges your paranoid delusions about who you are actually talking to and their secretive obscure motives.

To answer the question directly: I live in Calgary.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by geotag277

So sure, turn off foreign investment across Canada. As I mentioned before, that will reduce the prices of all properties across the country, as foreign investment is necessarily tied to the demand side of the real estate equation. But if you think that will lead in any way shape or form to a return to affordability in general for the land and single family detached housing in Vancouver you are delusional. The numbers speak for themselves, and it is absolutely inexcusable that people like whatnext are not only sticking their heads in the sand regarding this trend, they actively campaign to preserve the single family detached housing stock in Vancouver to the detriment of affordability for all residents.

My impression is that there are a bunch of contributing factors, which is consistent with the fact that Vancouver housing prices are so out of whack with so many other comparable cities. The city wouldn't be in $1.5M Vancouver special territory without a combination of foreign investment, low interest rates, bubble-inducing buyers and agents, a shortage of land for housing, a lack of infrastructure for getting people out to far-flung suburbs, and hugely restrictive zoning. Every possible "release valve" for pricing is shut off, and there are buyers with lots of money or credit to spend.

I don't think that controls on foreign ownership would be a magic bullet but I am also not convinced the trend is very healthy either.

Yes, there were Italians buying housing around Commercial Drive in the 1960's. They were generally middle class or lower, worked in the local economy, and were not able to bid prices out of reach of previous residents. That's part of why they lived by Commercial Drive; it was a cheap area, and they revitalized it by moving in. I don't think the process was the same as what's happening on the west side of the city.

My biggest reason for thinking the current regulatory regime for land sales is messed up is that the level of taxation doesn't come anywhere close to capturing a similar portion of the returns as, say, income taxes and sales taxes. Speculative land purchasing and land banking is also rent-seeking behaviour, not productive behaviour that adds to the local economy. It actually hurts the local economy by reducing the land available for other uses and pushing businesses and residents out to lower quality locations. Vancouver's paying the price for this, the city and province aren't going to capture tax revenues from people who hold this land, and in the case of foreign buyers the people who are benefiting the most aren't even very engages in the local economy.

Meanwhile there's a huge amount of generational inequity in the way all of this has gone down. One generation is getting a windfall in exchange for selling off valuable property to people from another country. The next generation will see only a fraction of that, or nothing in cases where they aren't lucky enough to have had parents who won the owned-a-house-in-2010's-Vancouver lottery. What's the country going to look like in 30 years if this continues, the most valuable land is owned by Chinese investors, and the younger generation in BC has almost no net worth going into what for the previous generation was already well into their windfall retirement years?

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by geotag277

What an interesting turn of phrase to fully repudiate the assertion that you have fallen for the politics of division: hook, line and sinker.

What a completely transparent way to step around the fact that you personally benefit from the current situation and are doing everything you can to maintain the status quo with your very important message board posts on this site that no one reads.

People are not afraid of being called racist for pointing out the truth anymore. You overused that, and we know your motives. Now it just makes us more angry and determined to end the international 1%er gravy train and get our city back to operating on sane economic principles.

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by geotag277

Metro Vancouver went from ~315k single family detached houses in 1996 to house 1.8 million people to 301k single family detached homes in 2011 to house 2.3 million people. That is a 5% reduction in single family housing inventory to house 30% more individuals.

Vancouver city proper, went from 65k single family detached homes to 47k, a reduction of almost 30% in single family detached housing stock.

This is the only city in Canada where this trend is occurring. It will start to happen in Toronto very soon.

These statistics are bullshit. I have no idea where they got these numbers from. Everyone in Vancouver can tell you that there are huge single family home subdivisions being continually built in the suburbs (Coquitlam/Port Coquitlam/Surrey/Langley/Maple Ridge/etc). Large lots continue to be subdivide everywhere. Very few single family homes are converted to other uses. In fact I am sure I saw statistics that show the opposite. There are thousands of single family homes being built in metro Vancouver every year.

The point is that these numbers are totally bogus. They have no credibility and I am very curious where they pulled them out of.

Originally Posted by geotag277

In the absence of a study, I will concede that it is simply your word against mine. A quora answer does not generally address a place as unique as Vancouver.

I lived there several years, and the cultural influence of China on Vancouver is huge. Likely the city in Canada that has the most amount of that kind of influence. I have met many people there who do not go by an anglicized name of any kind, and it isn't that out of the ordinary, especially for those with Chinese heritage.

I will also admit that I didn't exactly go around checking IDs, and I doubt you do either. Just because someone casually goes by an anglicized name in some circumstances doesn't necessarily mean that their official ID and the name they would sign on a document would align with that.

You may not check documents but I do have access to all this information given what I do for a living (outsourcing hr, pr, wfm across NA). Most people end up with anglicized names. There are exceptions though. East Asians generally anglicize their names the most often and I do see that. But you cant say someone is a foreigner if their name is not anglicized. You can however be sure their not born in Canada and they are a immigrant. You probably could though say some x percentage must be foreigners.

Regardless the problem is foreign money distorting the market so it does not matter what the persons standing in Canada is.