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Regina office market: High vacancy, low demand forecast for 2016
Bruce Johnstone
More from Bruce Johnstone
Published on: January 19, 2016 | Last Updated: January 19, 2016 4:06 PM CST
Class A space in Regina has seen the most dramatic increase from 4.8 per cent to 7.8 per cent in six months, almost entirely due to the 40,000 square feet of excess space in
the newly completed Agriculture Place. Stantec, the engineering firm, has committed to relocate to Agriculture Place in the second quarter of 2016, thus absorbing nearly all of the remaining space.
“We can attribute almost every square foot” of that vacant space to 400,000 square feet of new Class A office space being added to the downtown core, Kelsey said.
In the fourth quarter, Farm Credit Canada moved into its new digs at Agriculture Place. That plus a number of small office users filling vacancies throughout the downtown core contributed to the absorption of just under 80,000 square feet of space. Colliers expects that with the completion of Agriculture Place, the rate of absorption will slow, as few new tenants are in the market for Class A space.
Colliers forecasts that the Regina downtown market will likely see high vacancy and low demand persist in 2016. The completion of Agriculture Place has already had an impact and in 2016 this will become more apparent in the Class B vacancy rate. For example, relocations like the provincial government from the Financial Building to Grenfell Tower could increase the Class B vacancy rate.
Overall, absorption will be low or possibly negative and that vacancy could rise above 13 per cent by end of year 2016, Colliers said.
But if you think Regina’s office market is slow, take a look at Calgary, he said. “Six million square feet of space in downtown Calgary are vacant right now,” Kelsey said. “Our whole market is only 4.5 million feet of competitive office space,” he said, adding that the total vacancy rate (Class A, B and C downtown office buildings) is roughly 10 per cent.
Kelsey said Regina’s traditionally low office vacancy rate has raised concern about the large increase in vacancy in the past couple of years. But overall Regina’s commercial real estate market is in pretty good shape, he added.
“Our industrial space is just four per cent vacant. Our retail is just three per cent. If you take office (vacancy rate) as a snapshot of the commercial real estate market