YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Funny how we go from 0 flights to SAN to 10 a week in the span of a month or so.

True. SAN was the largest unserved nonstop market from YVR.

[Klazu]

Perhaps Westjet's announcements are also in lieu of Alberta's problems, so they are putting more planes also on YVR.

Originally Posted by G.S MTL

Westjet cutting flights ??

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/business/we...calgary-edmonton-amid-downturn-1.2751358

CALGARY -- Fewer WestJet planes will be flying in and out Alberta's two biggest cities as weakness in the energy sector puts a damper on demand.
As of March, the airline said it will be reducing service between Calgary and Edmonton. Several more routes to and from those two cities are either being cancelled or scaled back.
"We look at our service based on supply and demand," WestJet vice-president Richard Bartrem said Monday.
"With the downturn in the economy, we're seeing less demand for travel to and from the energy markets and into areas across Canada. We've decided that we would move some of that capacity into markets where we're seeing less of that impact so that we're actually using the fleet as effectively as possible while minimizing the effect on the guest."

Bartrem said the decline in traffic has been "noticeable enough" to warrant changes, but did not specify how big of a drop the airline saw in the affected markets.
WestJet will be removing flights between Calgary and two B.C. destinations -- Terrace and Prince George. Direct flights between Edmonton and Nanaimo and Kamloops, B.C. are also being cancelled. Bartrem said customers can still get between those destinations by changing planes elsewhere.
As well, WestJet is reducing the number of flights between Calgary and Brandon, Man. and Fort McMurray, Alta. And there be fewer flights between the provincial capital and Abbotsford, B.C. and Grande Prairie, Alta.
WestJet (TSX:WJA) says it's transferring more of its capacity to Eastern Canada, meaning more trips between Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal as well as to Atlantic destinations like Halifax and Fredericton.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Klazu

Perhaps Westjet's announcements are also in lieu of Alberta's problems, so they are putting more planes also on YVR.

If you look at what YVR is gaining, it's really only 10 weekly flights to the US. LAX is getting a third daily and SAN three weekly. Hawaii overall is a wash. Other than that, I think that's it. I think YVR is just lucky to have escaped any cuts at all.

[LeftCoaster]

Well YYZ only got 13, 5 of which are a Dash-8, so that's not much more than YVR.

I'd imagine there are many more announcements coming from WestJet as the Alberta fallout evolves.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well YYZ only got 13, 5 of which are a Dash-8, so that's not much more than YVR.

I'd imagine there are many more announcements coming from WestJet as the Alberta fallout evolves.

YYZ is also getting increases on other Transborder routes such as MCO, TPA and FLL plus they are getting some enhancements on domestic routes as well. More flights to YFC, YOW and YUL. Their net gain is actually quite a bit more than 13.

As the schedules are removed/loaded over the next little while I am sure all the changes will become transparent. Westjet is usually pretty quick to update their online schedules once press announcements are made.

[Gordon]

It would be nice if WS would take SFO from seasonal to yea around. That route could use some competition.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

This may be of interest to a lot of you wondering about YVR's Transborder routes potential.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/51-205-x/2011000/tablesectlist-listetableauxsect-eng.htm

So Johnny's Statscan table got me thinking, and I put together some of the "larger" routes out of YVR, added a factor of growth to scale up from 2012 to 2016 (YVR transborder grew 19.6% in those 3 years!) and tried to find the right plane for each route based on range and PAX to see what was viable.

The following spreadsheet looks at pure O&D to each city and sees how many flights the route can support based on the smallest or most logical aircraft for the route. I combined a few of the routes that act more like regions to really get a good idea. Note this doesn't factor into account aircraft availability or little details like 319-Rouges no longer flying out of YVR.



The sheet seems to tell me that there are a fair amount of undeserved routes, especially when considering the amount of connecting traffic most US airports see.

• Austin + San Antonio - Given the growth in tech in both cities, including shared companies, this one seems like just a matter of time.
• Boston - How this one isn't a route yet really confuses me. I get that it's a long flight, but loads look strong and the two are very wealthy cities.
• Detroit - Seems like it could carry more than the 1 flight per week in the summer it currently gets.
• Miami + Ft. Lauderdale - Another no-brainer, especially given the gateway Miami provides to the Vancouver-Caribbean market, which is currently very under-served.
• Orlando - Shows us why Westjet is dipping its feet in, and why National may or may not be interested.
• Philadelphia - Seems like a 3 per week could easily work here on O&D alone, not to mention access to the PHI hub.
• Charlotte + Raleigh - This one was a surprise for me, I expected it to be stronger. Might work given the huge hub at Charlotte but it's pretty weak.
• Tampa - Looks like this one could easily be supported by a 3PW 319 Rouge service. It's a long flight but if 3 days are already filled with O&D it should work. Should only get stronger as the boomers retire.
• Washington DC - Looks like this one should be daily already, why United ignores this route is a bit of a head scratcher. I'd imagine it would support good yields too.

This doesn't come as too big a surprise to me. Whenever I try to fly though the states out of YVR these days it's like there are NO direct flights since they get booked up so quickly. One would ave no idea there are 2 large flights a day to Houston for instance, since I always seem to get routed though YYC, which tells me that their flights are probably quite empty.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

So Johnny's Statscan table got me thinking, and I put together some of the "larger" routes out of YVR, added a factor of growth to scale up from 2012 to 2016 (YVR transborder grew 19.6% in those 3 years!) and tried to find the right plane for each route based on range and PAX to see what was viable.........

This doesn't come as too big a surprise to me. Whenever I try to fly though the states out of YVR these days it's like there are NO direct flights since they get booked up so quickly. One would ave no idea there are 2 large flights a day to Houston for instance, since I always seem to get routed though YYC, which tells me that their flights are probably quite empty.

Would this indicate a potential increase in flight frequencies >< YVR, and / or different metal?

[Klazu]

A slow day in the office, eh?

Very interesting stuff there and must have taken considerable time to pile that list!

Some of the destinations that you mention being significant hubs might make sense to have a direct route, but perhaps the US airlines don't want to serve every possible destination out of every single hub they have. It seems that often times they like routing you via their hub on both coasts, especially if traveling to a smaller airport.

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Whenever I try to fly though the states out of YVR these days it's like there are NO direct flights since they get booked up so quickly.

This is so true. Me and my wife have been doing a lot of coast-to-coast flying (she even more than I) and it does indeed feel like there is almost never a direct flight available, even if one would exist. It is always via some hub in the US which makes it a full day of travel. With more direct flights one might make business trips with less overnight stays at the destination.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Klazu

A slow day in the office, eh?

Very interesting stuff there and must have taken considerable time to pile that list!

Haha it actually didn't take much time at all, just a few equations and excel did the rest. Did it sitting on a plane to YVR actually!

Originally Posted by Klazu

This is so true. Me and my wife have been doing a lot of coast-to-coast flying (she even more than I) and it does indeed feel like there is almost never a direct flight available, even if one would exist. It is always via some hub in the US which makes it a full day of travel. With more direct flights one might make business trips with less overnight stays at the destination.

Incredibly frustrating right? I'm doing more and more flying out of YVR and it drives me nuts how often I need an extra connection because the YVR direct leg is full.

[excel]

Great spreadsheet. Thanks for putting in the time.

[Johnny Aussie]

Love your work. But this really does come back down to the potentials only really being BOS, PHL, MIA and SMF right?
AUS and SAT are really two separate markets. Sure only an hour and a half drive but neither being hubs, O&D would be critical... With a few one stop options for all three alliances would be a tough one to crack. The Asian potential connection would be a factor but overall would be tough and would really require a daily flight if wanting to crack the business market 3-4 flights on a CR7 ain't gonna work.
TPA? let's add that to the realm of outside possibilities. It is larger than I would have thought.
So additional frequencies to IAD and DTW... see how we go. Both have been tried daily but scaled back. Maybe grown enough for a crack at increased frequencies again. Right now the weekly flights during peak summer are solely related to cruise traffic.
AC will be phasing out their 37 seat dashes and not ideal for RNO or SMF.

Love your "undeserved" typo... Ha ha.

[ShawnShank]

Not sure how reliable this is, but it says that Vancouver will be one of the first A350-900 destinations for China Airlines

https://talkairlines.wordpress.com/2015/...wb-cabin-design-and-outlines-route-plan/

Really hope this comes to fruition

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by ShawnShank

Not sure how reliable this is, but it says that Vancouver will be one of the first A350-900 destinations for China Airlines

https://talkairlines.wordpress.com/2015/...wb-cabin-design-and-outlines-route-plan/

Really hope this comes to fruition

Yup. Was discussed last year. The problem with the Canada-Taiwan bilateral is the restriction is based on frequencies and not seats. So to go from a daily 744 to a 350 is a big hit to seat numbers. But of course like most carriers, the 744 is on its way out. There are four (I think!) remaining unutilised frequencies on the Taiwan side. Coincidentally EVA to YVR and YYZ are both 5 weekly at the moment, having recently been increased from four weekly each in early December.

However.... now that AC has the permission from the CTA to code share on EVA... perhaps we may see both routes bumped to daily. Ruling made yesterday.

https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/19-a-2016

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Love your work. But this really does come back down to the potentials only really being BOS, PHL, MIA and SMF right?
AUS and SAT are really two separate markets. Sure only an hour and a half drive but neither being hubs, O&D would be critical... With a few one stop options for all three alliances would be a tough one to crack. The Asian potential connection would be a factor but overall would be tough and would really require a daily flight if wanting to crack the business market 3-4 flights on a CR7 ain't gonna work.
TPA? let's add that to the realm of outside possibilities. It is larger than I would have thought.
So additional frequencies to IAD and DTW... see how we go. Both have been tried daily but scaled back. Maybe maturing enough for a crack at it. Right now the weekly flights during peak summer are solely related to cruise traffic.
AC will be phasing out their 37 seat dashes and not ideal for RNO or SMF.

Love your "undeserved" typo... Ha ha.

Haha I fixed one of them and completely missed the other.

My reasoning on 5-7 flights per day to AUS is that my increase of every route by 19% was completely arbitrary, and some routes likely grew much better than others. Given Austin's economic performance, and the completely under-appreciated growth of tech in YVR, I'd guess their numbers are likely higher than I have shown and could support a weekdays CR7.

IAD, why is that not a daily? Both airports seem to compliment each other and have many intl' flights the other doesn't have (YVR: Shanghai, HK, Sydney... IAD: Dubai, Sao Paulo, Joburg...) This plus the O&D alone looking like it supports 5 flights per week. Surely connecting PAX could push this one to daily on a 319, possibly even a 737-700 or 320.

Other than that I would agree, it's mainly BOS, MIA, PHL and SMF.

Curious why it would be mainly PHL and not IAD by the way, is PHL that big of a hub compared to IAD? I always thought IAD was a pretty big part of United's hub system.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Haha I fixed one of them and completely missed the other.

My reasoning on 5-7 flights per day to AUS is that my increase of every route by 19% was completely arbitrary, and some routes likely grew much better than others. Given Austin's economic performance, and the completely under-appreciated growth of tech in YVR, I'd guess their numbers are likely higher than I have shown and could support a weekdays CR7.

IAD, why is that not a daily? Both airports seem to compliment each other and have many intl' flights the other doesn't have (YVR: Shanghai, HK, Sydney... IAD: Dubai, Sao Paulo, Joburg...) This plus the O&D alone looking like it supports 5 flights per week. Surely connecting PAX could push this one to daily on a 319, possibly even a 737-700 or 320.

Other than that I would agree, it's mainly BOS, MIA, PHL and SMF.

Curious why it would be mainly PHL and not IAD by the way, is PHL that big of a hub compared to IAD? I always thought IAD was a pretty big part of United's hub system.

Couldn't resist... And here comes another... I bet 5-7 flights "per day" to AUS would have as many passengers as Westjet's flights from Edmonton to Kamloops or Nanaimo! again... Couldn't resist... Is it late in YYZ NOW?!?!

Ok... with Austin as I briefly mentioned, there are so many decent one stop options a direct YVR would have to compete with: AA via LAX, DFW and PHX; DL via LAX, SEA and SLC; UA via SFO, LAX, DEN, IAH and even ORD; AS via SEA. To get enough loyal frequent fliers out of their programs and get enough bums into a daily CRA to make it work... Asian leveraging would also be up against LAX, SFO and SEA.... well you get the picture! O&D would really have to be more in the 50,000 annual range to consider this I would think. AUS alone, not with SAT.

IAD - it was daily two years ago but only 1-2 a week last couple of years. So far summer 2016 still only Saturday service. Why is it not able to handle more? Perhaps the proximity to and overlap with EWR and the overlap with ORD...

PHL - was tried daily a few years back as a red eye. Perhaps a different flight time and/or a weekend only type service would work but same as IAD....

[Johnny Aussie]

Wow the YVR news just keeps getting better for 2016.

From 22 June to 30 Sept KE will be flying the 747-8 on the YVR-ICN route

http://airlineroute.net/2016/01/27/ke-s16update2/

So YVR gets both 747-8s from Korean Air, passenger and cargo.

According to koreanair.com config is 6F/48C/314Y - ttl 368 with all their brand new products.

So summer 2016 YVR is getting both passenger super jumbos. The BA 380 and now the KE 748. 748 is longer by about 3.5m.

[excel]

Wow awesome! Definitely one of my favs!

[ShawnShank]

China airlines 744 went into the grass off a taxiway

http://i.imgur.com/2URytXk.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/pNJRvbJ.jpg

[Klazu]

I just booked a YVR-HKG-TPE-HKG-YVR trip and will be heading to Hong Kong and Taipei for vacation in two weeks!

Air Canada was by far the cheapest option on the YVR-HKG (and it's non-stop) route, but damn that 77W HD that they are flying on that route. I am not looking forward to sitting 13h 30min in the economy class on that plane. I hope things are a bit better on the aisle seats and perhaps I am able to upgrade to the Exit seats or even Premium Economy.

On HKG-TPE route there is some serious competion and I found ridiculously cheap business class seats onboard Hong Kong Airline. They fly a new A330 on that route with lie-flat pods, so not bad for $350 return!

Really looking for my trip to these two skyscraper meccas. I have six full days in Hong Kong and five in Taipei. The amount of photos I will take will be crazy...