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  #5121  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2016, 12:29 AM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post

Developers will never, never build "affordable" housing unless they are required or provided incentives to do so by government, which is the case in many re-zoning applications today. Even then, those incentives have to be more worthwhile as compared to alternative opportunities available to them. That's why Vancouver can extract these requirements, along with CACs and public art, and still have developers interested. Surrey can't hope for anything similar.

They will always seek to maximize profits in the market. They are not constrained by any type of supply, they are constrained by their own size and financial risk levels. If they had Apple levels of corporate financing, Bosa would be redeveloping every piece of available land in Vancouver.

Furthermore your car analogy is terrible because the car market is an entirely different animal. Sparks and Micras are produced because of CAFE standards in the US. Ask any new car dealer, they make a pittance on those cars in terms of profit margin, if anything at all. Only economies of scale allow their production at all, something not possible in real estate development. They are there to get people into a dealership, or possibly into a car they can be upgraded from in the years to come. Those cars are also made of significantly cheaper parts than a Ferrari, with far less labour. Parts and labour are the main inputs to cars, whereas land and time (debt financing interest) are huge inputs to real estate development.
A response like this shows that you do not even make a good faith effort to read--let alone comprehend--the posts you respond to.

So, I am not going to really respond to your latest post beyond adding the following:

You are right. Developers will never produce an abundant supply of affordable housing unless they have an incentive to do so. That is exactly what I have been arguing all along. But what you think constitutes an "incentive" is precisely what will ensure that no affordable market housing will ever get built in Vancouver. If you made a good effort to read my post, then you would grasp that the kinds of "incentive" you advocate is precisely what increases market housing prices, not lowers them.

Lastly, the role that liberal densification plays in the housing industry is very similar to the role that "economies of scale" play in the car industry. Just as economies of scale make the mass production of affordable cars for the middle class a much bigger business than the limited production of luxury vehicles for the affluent, so liberal densification is what would make the construction of affordable market housing for the average person a much bigger business than the construction of luxury housing for the wealthy few.
     
     
  #5122  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2016, 12:30 AM
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Affordable housing isn't being built because there is demand for luxury units. If demand for high end units evaporated then make no mistake we'd see affordable units get built Not sure why that's hard to understand. If the market for $1000psf condos dries up developers won't be able to pay what they are paying per buildable sqft and would stop buying, prices would drop eventually to what developers could afford to pay for the market they are selling into.
To answer the question on what would happen if Cambie had been rezoned 10 storeys instead of 6... well two things would happen, we would see development occur slower then it has, there isn't unlimited demand, as quick as Cambie appears to have been built out remember that zoning was started well before the Canada Line and we are now 6+yrs in and development has a long way to go before being built out, it isn't quite the immediate buildout it appears at first, most projects are only now breaking ground.
The bigger truth is that if the city upped the zoning to 10 stories, the land price would've increased almost 100%, the total cost the units could be built for would've still be roughly the same. Developers would pay the same amount per buildable sqft. So no cheaper units, just slower buildout and yes higher total density at the end of a longer time frame.
     
     
  #5123  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2016, 12:38 AM
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A solution I proposed to the city years back when I was naive enough to think the city wanted outside help with affordable housing was as follows.

On a given property allow variable density, say 3FSR for market units, 5FSR for full rental, perhaps 4.0 for mixed rental/market. The numbers would be tweaked as needed to ensure the numbers squared. The developer then can then build on market demand on a more level playing field. The current system of STIR/Rental100 has shifted costs onto everyone and is the wrong approach, imo.
     
     
  #5124  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2016, 12:59 AM
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Originally Posted by SFUVancouver View Post
I read that piece (one of many from Ms. Fralic and others in the 'preserve the city in amber' chattering class) and found to my ear that the "sound and fury" she remarks upon hearing with increasing frequency sounds a lot like a noisy attempt by vocal Baby Boomers to pull up the ladder behind them whilst hanging a "city's full" sign from street lamps at the city limits.
That's basically all I got from the article as well. Baby boomers who want the world to stop changing around them.

Honestly if you want to live in a city that is actually decreasing in density over time with limited foreign investment and ample affordable housing inner city Detroit is the place for you.
     
     
  #5125  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2016, 1:03 AM
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In a lot of those types of articles, you can replace the word "neighbourhood" with "enclave".
     
     
  #5126  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2016, 4:08 AM
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There will be an open house regarding the Joyce Station area plan on Feb 3rd from 5pm to 8pm and Feb 6th from 11am to 2pm. There are already posters up around the station stating that the new plan will apparently drive up prices. Oh my - NIMBYs out in force. A teardown is going for $1.2m just up the street from me, not even marketed for its value as a place to live. I sure bet that more condos will drive up the price of that home (???).

More details: http://vancouver.ca/home-property-de...ct-review.aspx
     
     
  #5127  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2016, 5:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Prometheus View Post
A response like this shows that you do not even make a good faith effort to read--let alone comprehend--the posts you respond to.
You're blaming zoning for the lack of affordable housing when that simply isn't the case. It's the high demand for real estate in general in this market which is driving developer behaviour.

You parrot the same talking points without even trying to debate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prometheus View Post
That is exactly what I have been arguing all along. But what you think constitutes an "incentive" is precisely what will ensure that no affordable market housing will ever get built in Vancouver. If you made a good effort to read my post, then you would grasp that the kinds of "incentive" you advocate is precisely what increases market housing prices, not lowers them.
The requirement from the COV to include "non-market housing" or whatever they are calling it is the only reason it has been getting built in the last decade. If that requirement didn't exist, we wouldn't have anything other than luxury condos with high profit margins. How can you possibly see anything else happening?
     
     
  #5128  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2016, 9:16 AM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post

You're blaming zoning for the lack of affordable housing when that simply isn't the case.

You parrot the same talking points without even trying to debate.
How many times are you prepared to confirm that you do not even read the arguments you profess to be refuting? I have argued in detail that restrictive land use policies (which include artificially low caps on density, lengthy approval processes, expensive mandates, etc.) create an inefficient redevelopment environment. These inefficiencies increase the cost of creating housing and inhibit supply. In the first case, the higher cost of creating housing is not absorbed by the developer but passed onto purchasers in the form of higher prices. In the second case, lower supply results in higher prices. Thus, restrictive land use policies substantially decrease affordability, especially in markets where demand is already high.

These are basic economic realities.

Have you even attempted to refute these propositions with any kind of argument? For instance, have you attempted to demonstrate that the inefficient redevelopment of land does not lead developers to recoup reduced margins through higher prices? Have you attempted to demonstrate that the extra cost of an expensive approval process does not add to the total project costs and thus raise prices? Have you attempted to demonstrate that the protracted length of the approval process does not result in a decrease in the rate of supply of new housing? Have you attempted to demonstrate that artificially capping density does not result in less dwelling units and thus less supply in a given area? Have you attempted to demonstrate that less supply does not increase prices?

It is you who is not debating.

If you ever do get around to debating, however, your debate will not be with me but with basic economic theory and empirical fact. I wish you good luck with that.

In the meantime, you should read this article and this paper, which summarizes the empirical evidence that restrictive zoning, lengthy approval processes and expensive mandates reduce supply and increase prices, especially in high demand markets like Vancouver.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post

The requirement from the COV to include "non-market housing" or whatever they are calling it is the only reason it has been getting built in the last decade. If that requirement didn't exist, we wouldn't have anything other than luxury condos with high profit margins. How can you possibly see anything else happening?
You could profit so much by actually reading what you respond to. I said affordable market housing, i.e., the kind of housing that average individuals can afford on their own without being carried on the backs of others. It is precisely the mandatory inclusion of non-market housing in a private condo project that all but guarantees most of the remaining market housing will be nothing but expensive units with high profit margins. How else do you think the developer pays for the non-market units? Somebody has to subsidized the expense of the non-market component, and it's not the developer. How can you possibly not understand this and the detrimental effect it has on the affordability of market housing?
     
     
  #5129  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2016, 10:42 AM
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Pic of the Joe & Rosalie Segal Family Centre @ VGH dated Jan 14, 2016 from the Journal of Commerce:


http://journalofcommerce.com/Project...lion-1012763W/

Quote:
Originally Posted by officedweller View Post
From Changing City Updates:

Joe & Rosalie Segal Family Centre at VGH


http://changingcitybook.com/2014/12/...centre-at-vgh/
     
     
  #5130  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2016, 2:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Prometheus View Post
You could profit so much by actually reading what you respond to. I said affordable market housing, i.e., the kind of housing that average individuals can afford on their own without being carried on the backs of others. It is precisely the mandatory inclusion of non-market housing in a private condo project that all but guarantees most of the remaining market housing will be nothing but expensive units with high profit margins. How else do you think the developer pays for the non-market units? Somebody has to subsidized the expense of the non-market component, and it's not the developer. How can you possibly not understand this and the detrimental effect it has on the affordability of market housing?
There is no affordable market housing. That's the whole problem, the real estate market in Vancouver has gone beyond affordable.

Let me use a basic example. If the market will bear $800/sf pricing for condos, that it what they will be sold at. Full stop. Developers will not sell for less, regardless if their price to purchase the land and build the condos is $200/sf or $500/sf. The market sets the price, and they will build for as low cost as possible to extract the highest profits.

By way of rezoning fees, CAC contributions and other requirements, the City can extract some of that profit to return to the community. Using the $200/sf cost example, the end customer still pays $800/sf, the developer pays $200 for the land and construction, and the city gets $50/sf to use on city services, parks, and so on.

Given the real estate market is willing to pay $800/sf for the end product, there is no way the developer will sell for less. Of course, existing land owners also know this, and will price plots of land accordingly.

Beyond that, zoning and land use has important long term decisions for cities that developers could not care less about, so it's important to make careful planning decisions on zoning.

Furthermore, as many have stated, there are massive amounts of underbuilt land in Vancouver as compared to allowed zoning.
     
     
  #5131  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2016, 9:06 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post

There is no affordable market housing. That's the whole problem, the real estate market in Vancouver has gone beyond affordable.
I swear I am writing in English.

Of course, there is a lack of supply of affordable market housing. That's exactly what I have been saying all along. But most importantly, I have been arguing in detail why that supply is not being provided despite the overwhelming demand for it (something you have failed to explain since high density plays a similar role in the production of housing as economies of scale play in the production of TVs and there is no shortage of affordable TVs). I have thus been arguing in detail why the conservative and prohibitive land use policies you apparently defend will ensure there will never be any affordable market housing in Vancouver (short of a total crash), and how the adoption of liberal and permissive land use policies, by contrast, mitigate high prices by lowering costs and increasing supply and thus why such policies are needed more than ever when a real estate market is hot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post

Let me use a basic example. If the market will bear $800/sf pricing for condos, that it what they will be sold at. Full stop. Developers will not sell for less, regardless if their price to purchase the land and build the condos is $200/sf or $500/sf. The market sets the price, and they will build for as low cost as possible to extract the highest profits.

Given the real estate market is willing to pay $800/sf for the end product, there is no way the developer will sell for less.
Do you not understand how competitive markets work and the role that liberal economic policies play in the degree of competitiveness a market exhibits and the abundance of supply it produces?

In a competitive and well-supplied market, of course developers will sell for less than $800/sf, even though there are buyers who could afford to pay more. Let me use a basic example: Are you going to pay $800/sf, if another developer is offering $700/sf for a comparable unit? No. That's exactly how competitive and well-supplied markets work. And the more liberal a market is, the more competitive and well-supplied it is.

Moreover, liberal markets are most responsive to the demands of the middle class, not the wealthy. Selling things at a lower profit margin per unit to a huge number of people produces larger gross profits than selling things at a higher profit margin per unit to just a few people. Competitive industries do not set prices at the level the wealthiest are willing to pay; they respond to the diverse demands of a diverse population, most particularly the demands of the middle class. That's why we have many more McDonalds than Hawksworths.

Let me use another basic example: If a group of people are looking for non-luxury homes at non-luxury prices, are some developers going to respond to that demand, even though the profit margin per unit is less? Yes, especially if that "group of people" constitutes the middle class, the largest demographic, the satisfaction of whose desires will net them higher gross profits by selling many units at lower profit margins than selling few units at higher profit margins.

Now if you respond "But the number of people able to pay luxury prices (i.e., prices out of reach of the majority of Vancouverites) is roughly equal to the number of available units" then you would be correct. But then you would also be conceding there is a gross under supply of housing in Vancouver and that land use policies are not nearly liberal enough to respond adequately to the demands of the middle class, precisely what I have been arguing all along.

As I said before, your argument is not with me, but with basic economic principles and empirical facts. Read the article and scholarly paper I linked to and address the arguments and empirical research they contained, if you can.

Actually learn something.

That's my last word on this topic in this particular thread, which is for updates, not arguments.

Last edited by Prometheus; Jan 21, 2016 at 10:25 PM.
     
     
  #5132  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2016, 12:32 AM
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Who's buying along Oak Street? Probably one of the shittiest streets in Vancouver I can think of to live on. But then if you're building for investors it doesn't really matter does it, as long as the place has the right school catchment?

It's amazing the naivete of those actually believing the "if we just build more prices will come down" bullshit. It hasn't worked for the last decade.
If high density condos were never built, the available pool of existing condos would have cost as much, or even more, than the single family homes today. If the high rises of downtown were never built, suburbs would become either more dense, or that urban sprawl would have expanded to Hope by now. Either that or you can keep Vancouver to be hick and backward, unable to catch up with the rest of the world.

More high rise condos in Vancouver will help bring prices down. Prometheus is absolutely right.
     
     
  #5133  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2016, 1:06 AM
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All of these pseudo-economists...people should stop posting their own opinions as economic facts, its horrendous reading.
     
     
  #5134  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2016, 2:32 PM
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If high density condos were never built, the available pool of existing condos would have cost as much, or even more, than the single family homes today. If the high rises of downtown were never built, suburbs would become either more dense, or that urban sprawl would have expanded to Hope by now. Either that or you can keep Vancouver to be hick and backward, unable to catch up with the rest of the world.

More high rise condos in Vancouver will help bring prices down. Prometheus is absolutely right.
I agree, it is actually amazing to me how many intelligent posters here do not believe the laws of supply and demand apply to Vancouver. That said it is quite possible (likely even) the amount of extra supply we are constructing is not enough to prevent prices from rising....but obviously the new supply is at least reducing the amount prices rise.
     
     
  #5135  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2016, 3:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Rico View Post
I agree, it is actually amazing to me how many intelligent posters here do not believe the laws of supply and demand apply to Vancouver. That said it is quite possible (likely even) the amount of extra supply we are constructing is not enough to prevent prices from rising....but obviously the new supply is at least reducing the amount prices rise.
The pricing of "housing" is what rents are, and they aren't rising much, if at all. The price of real estate (an asset) is far more complex and has many more factors at play. Real estate is very cyclical. We are obviously at a high point today.

Metro Van Stats:
http://www.metrovancouver.org/servic...s/default.aspx

Housing Starts:
http://www.metrovancouver.org/servic...arts-Total.pdf

Central 1 Housing Outlook:
https://www.central1.com/sites/defau...15_01%20BC.pdf
     
     
  #5136  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2016, 3:34 PM
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Let's see what real local economists (the authors of the recent proposal to tax property owners without local income) think:

Quote:
The fundamental drivers of local housing prices are high demand and limited supply. The only way to have a decisive impact on affordability would be to weaken the building restrictions that sharply restrict new housing supply in most of Vancouver and the Lower Mainland. Major improvements in affordability are only possible by allowing supply to respond to changing demand.

Last edited by quobobo; Jan 22, 2016 at 4:07 PM.
     
     
  #5137  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2016, 5:51 PM
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Can we please move this discussion to the Metro Vancouver Real Estate Thread and leave this one for updates? Mods, maybe move the last half page or so over there and we can keep this thread for updates?
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  #5138  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2016, 8:14 PM
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moved....
     
     
  #5139  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2016, 7:14 AM
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The old city jail now social housing:



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  #5140  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2016, 11:56 PM
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The old city jail now social housing:

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That repurposing turned out quite nicely. Glad all that building material was saved from the landfill.
     
     
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