Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBoot
I don't expect many, if any, new large-scale (25+ stories) tower developments to be announced in 2016. We are approaching the end of the current growth cycle. If anything, I would bet on a new office development. However, that would come no were near sniffing the 700' mark in height.
As for the developments in which you inquired
-Waller Park Place - Don't hold your breath (at best this is on hold). Construction financing not fully secured, no hotel operator, no pre-leasing activity for office component, no pre-sales activity for condominium component, etc... Doesn't look good.
-99 Trinity - Consider this one mothballed. At best, on hold until the next building cycle (a few years away). World Class Capital has not shown the wherewithal to develop something of this size.
-Hotel ZaZa & Post Republic Square - Not sure what is going on. It's quickly approaching the mothballed category. However, there were hints that this project may wait until the next housing construction cycle.
-5th & Brazos (Magellan's deal) - at this point, I believe it would be safe to consider this one mothballed. Construction financing not fully secured, no hotel operator, etc... (see Waller Park Place). Furthermore, Magellan is a small shop and they are heavily focused on their new Vista Residences project in Chicago.
So, let's sit back, prop our feet up and watch and see what happens in the coming 1Q and 2Q 2016 - this will be telling. From an overall commercial real estate standpoint, most analysts and experts are predicting another good year - with a caveat - that it will not be as robust as what was witnessed in 2014 and 2015.
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I'm bullish on Hotel ZaZa (clearly there were unanticipated utility issues that arose during site prep. That said, I'll be pessimistic if significant excavation hasn't happened by the Spring)
I'm also bullish on the Magellan building. "Small shop" or not, Magellan has such a good track record and at least from what I've heard, there is still internal movement on the preparation end for this one. I'd expect to see dirt move sometime in 2016.
I'm officially out on 99 Trinity. It seems like it was merely a pipe dream and we've been hearing it's supposed to break ground for three years now.
Waller Park Place is a huge wildcard. New demo fencing was up the last time I walked by the site, so jury is still out. They had talked about starting construction this winter, so if it stays silent, then it's time to put this one under the "on hold" category.
As far as future announcements, I think there is a lot in the pipeline that could be announced or classified as more concrete during the upcoming year.
It wouldn't shock me if we saw renderings for the IBC Bank Hotel as well as the final designs for the church block.
Endeavor owns a couple properties that we could see announcements on and there is also the possibility of 900 Congress being home to a significant tower.
It might be slower, but there's still a lot coming.
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