Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

http://vibrantvictoria.ca/forum/index.ph...-i-was-suspended-from-skyscraperpagecom/

Late to the discussion here. An administrator at that site has the following side-splittingly mindless gem:

They know this is paradise, they get it, but when 90% of the country deals with frigid winters and unbearably hot summers the last thing they want to admit is that where they live isn't great and that there are far better places in this country than the GTA.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

. In this forum its all quite obvious, MolsonExport is smart, Lio is smart, frankieflowerpot despite our differences is well connected, tallerbetter is experienced in our most valuable real estate market, sd2867 has mental issues and you are an emotional, pretentious presumptuous fool.

I can't decide if I should feel bad about not being included on this list!

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I can't decide if I should feel bad about not being included on this list!

Don't worry, you're on my list.

Merry Christmas everyone!

[Marshal]

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

So in other words you're an artist? I rest my case lol. Coming out of the gate with your insults about my logic and contributions to this forum when you hadn't even engaged in any exchanges with me suggests you are the emotional fool. Anyone with a brain and logical tendencies ( yes I consider emotional pretentious people to be fools, keyboard warriors at best who get crushed in the game of life) can see I'm intelligent, which is why some of the most accomplished and wealthy people on this forum send me regular messages to get advice and have openly told me about the ROI of said advice, just as the entrepreneurs (in the $400mil net worth range), professionals and prime ministers I've advised in real life have demonstrated their appreciation. Who the hell, on the other hand, are you? Do you even make as much in a year as some of us earn in a week? Not going to reference check, even you know the answer. By what benchmark do you measure your talents beyond the unicorns and rainbows up your own momma-powdered ass? There's a reason I get a lot of rope when verbally kicking the ass of some of the trolls on here. I'm the very definition of intolerant of stupidity, hence why I get on your case as well as of a choice few others who tend to get banned or suspended for their trolling or obnoxiously stupid comments eventually. Most of those trolls and fools get banned, suspended or humbled into silence yet here I am continuing to debate them aggressively without so much as a warning because I only get indignant with illogical morons and the value of my contributions is appreciated by those with brains and ambition. In this forum its all quite obvious, MolsonExport is smart, Lio is smart, frankieflowerpot despite our differences is well connected, tallerbetter is experienced in our most valuable real estate market, sd2867 has mental issues and you are an emotional, pretentious presumptuous fool.

Take a breath now. I'm going to back down if that's OK. You are out of my league and its Christmas. Like you pointed out, I am new to this, and I never would have guessed that complete strangers could get so upset about someone's comments. Simply thinking differently about university professors should never have brought us to this.

Now, we obviously got off to a very bad start. I realize we will never be friends, but I'm not going anywhere, so we will see in the future if we can at least become civil in discussions.

I'm sure you could give a shit, but regardless, have a good holiday with your loved ones.

[north 42]

Originally Posted by Gresto

Late to the discussion here. An administrator at that site has the following side-splittingly mindless gem:

[ssiguy]

Vancouver's market has become so completely detached from both reality and the economy of the city. The market in Vancouver is, quite sincerely, impacted more by a change of government or policy in Beijing than it is by one in Ottawa.

The thing that makes real estate prices in Vancouver so perverse is that the weaker the overall Canadian economy is, the better the sales and the faster rising the prices. This is because the vast majority of homes of $1 million {which is all of them in Vancouver} are bought by Chinese or recent Chinese immigrants who still make their living in China and have most of their assets there. In other words they make their money in Yuan but buy Vancouver housing in CDN$.

Most Chinese buy their homes with cash in order to launder it. This has become even easier in the last few years. In the last year Vancouver prices have soared by 17% but only for Canadians. Due to the weakness of the CDN$ against the Yuan prices for the Chinese have only increased 2% as the dollar has dropped by 15% against the Yuan.

In other words the worst the Canadian economy gets, the higher the unemployment rate, the lower trade revenue becomes, the lower the wages shrink, the lower the value of the dollar thus buying for Canadians becomes much more costly while the Chinese get a huge discount due to the exchange.

This will become worse as due to Chinese finally getting their Yuan into the "basket of currencies" it requires freer flow of money and China has already said it will shortly introduce measures to make it easier for the citizens to invest overseas and park their money there.

A truly perverse housing sector but the Vancouver economy is so reliant on housing and the government on revenues from the money laundering real estate that to stop it now would be calamitous for the economy.

[mistercorporate]

The same situation holds for Toronto though the investor mix here is not strictly Chinese though they are a sizable sector of it. The average income for Chinese people in the Toronto area is actually lower than the Canadian average unlike most ethnic groups here yet go to any condo sales center during early release of units and we know who our overlords are (overseas investors, primarily Chinese). You can talk to them, they do not live here, they just own multiple units and rent them out. The upper class mainland Chinese are actually good people and quite sociable and open but they are understandably exploiting an opportunity that is not in Canada's interest. We strongly need restrictions on overseas real estate investment on multiple units as the Australians have belatedly done to preserve our quality of life. What is happening to our young people is tragic, they are citizens not serfs!

[miketoronto]

Why do foreign investors find Toronto and Vancouver so attractive to invest in. But not American cities like say Houston?
It makes no sense that these few cities are huge magnets, yet countless other cities are barely touched by investors.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by miketoronto

Why do foreign investors find Toronto and Vancouver so attractive to invest in. But not American cities like say Houston?
It makes no sense that these few cities are huge magnets, yet countless other cities are barely touched by investors.

Houston is 5% Asian (all types). Toronto is 10%+ Chinese alone! Vancouver is 20%+ Chinese. Toronto and Vancouver have sizable Chinese communities that eclipse Houston.

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by miketoronto

Why do foreign investors find Toronto and Vancouver so attractive to invest in. But not American cities like say Houston?
It makes no sense that these few cities are huge magnets, yet countless other cities are barely touched by investors.

Why not Calgary or Montreal let alone American cities?

[giallo]

Vancouver and Toronto have a very positive reputation with the wealthy out here. A lot of it has to do with the high preexisting Chinese population, and the connections that come with it, and some of it has to do with Canada's size. I think (and this is just from my experiences with talking/working to the upper-middle and wealthy class here) they see Canada as this pristine, untouched country with massive potential. It's also pretty easy to get in to if you have a lot of money, so there's that too.

It's rare to find someone in Shanghai (that's a born and raised Shanghainese) that doesn't know someone or have a family member that lives in either Vancouver or Toronto. I've even heard Calgary's name thrown around here and there.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by giallo

It's rare to find someone in Shanghai (that's a born and raised Shanghainese) that doesn't know someone or have a family member that lives in either Vancouver or Toronto. I've even heard Calgary's name thrown around here and there.

I'm not surprised about Calgary being somewhat known and talked about here and there in Shanghai. The thing about Toronto and Vancouver is the breadth of connections in China. From Nanjing to Beijing to Shenzhen to Guangzhou, a lot of families have connections to Toronto and Vancouver - Calgary not so much, and likely Shanghai is where you would here Calgary mentioned the most.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by rousseau

Unless I'm missing something, this seems like a cool way to have others pay off your mortgage while still giving you a place to stay now and then if you wanted it. But I have no experience with this kind of thing, so I'm probably missing something.

I think it makes financial sense only if you're in an area that's touristy enough (not sure if downtown Toronto qualifies).

I am experimenting with this in Florida with one property (3/2 pool house right next to the freeway, 10 min from the beach and about 35 min from Orlando). The main advantage is that you get to use it yourself once in a while, otherwise, my early calculations so far show that it's about a wash (but with more trouble) than just renting it to a long-term stable tenant with a lease.

We had more properties we initially wanted to use for short term renting to vacationers, but I think we're going to move nearly everything to regular long-term renting. It's just way easier from the management point of view... which is, to me, really a core thing.

If you want to try this in Toronto I think you first need to make sure you're in a prime area for tourism. Then you have to see if the condo building you're looking at allows it (I am guessing many don't). And you have to know there might be a hotel tax of some sort (no idea about Ontario specifically, but many jurisdictions have one) on your earnings.

I personally would be wary of planning to do that in the long run with a condo, because the rules can get changed easily. Maybe even due to you (if there are too many complaints about your AirBnB renters)...

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I can't decide if I should feel bad about not being included on this list!

FYI, you'd certainly deserve to be placed very high on anyone's list of "smart SSPers from the Canada section", but when looked at from a real estate point of view specifically, I think you'd have to take a backseat to someone like mistercorporate (personally, I have to say that after exchanging a bunch of PMs together to discuss our own activities, we were both pretty surprised at how much we saw eye to eye).

It's Christmas and I'm away from home -- currently enjoying a coffee in a nice little place on Queen Street in downtown Gaspe temporarily away from the in-law family so free to show up on SSP a little bit -- but whenever I'll have more time I will take a look at the bunch of MLS listings posted by Mike. I like the idea of having a thread to share real estate opinions and projections. The collective knowledge of a forum like this (focused on urban affairs) can be a pretty interesting tool...

[whatnext]

Look out Toronto, the real estate locusts are now turning their full attention to you!

Toronto passes Vancouver as focus of Chinese investors

[ssiguy]

God help you.

One thing that is Toronto has in it's favour is that the city has "heritage communities" of which Vancouver has none. Also in Toronto the city is much more vigilant about what can and cannot be torn down and what can take it's place. In other words you won't get the wholesale flattening of whole communities that Vancouver has suffered under.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by theman23

Don't worry, you're on my list.

Aw shucks! blush

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

FYI, you'd certainly deserve to be placed very high on anyone's list of "smart SSPers from the Canada section", but when looked at from a real estate point of view specifically, I think you'd have to take a backseat to someone like mistercorporate (personally, I have to say that after exchanging a bunch of PMs together to discuss our own activities, we were both pretty surprised at how much we saw eye to eye).

.

Thanks!

I admit though that I was kinda joking. And I would never claim to be an expert on real estate investment, even though I am not totally clueless on the topic either.

[miketoronto]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

God help you.

One thing that is Toronto has in it's favour is that the city has "heritage communities" of which Vancouver has none. Also in Toronto the city is much more vigilant about what can and cannot be torn down and what can take it's place. In other words you won't get the wholesale flattening of whole communities that Vancouver has suffered under.

I don't know about that. Toronto is allowing so much of our heritage to be knocked down for boring condos, it is not even funny.
Now Roncesvalles is under threat, and the City is allowing two great historic buildings to be knocked down. All but setting the precedent that other parts of that great streetscape can be torn down. Toronto is just pushing intensification too much. They don't seem to understand that we don't need to knock down areas that have been working great for over 100 years, just to add more units.

[miketoronto]

Thank goodness for semi-detached houses. I have noticed in some of Toronto's most in demand neighborhoods that detached homes for from say $1 million to over $4 million. But semi-detached houses in the same neighborhood good for around $700,000 to $800,000. Still expensive. But the limit on building a new monster house must limit the value and keep things a little affordable .