Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

Basic statistics.

If I'm selling something very sought after at auction and the auction is restricted to the people of my hometown, the price it'll end up reaching is likely (on average, averaged over a large number of such auctions) significantly lower than the price it would have reached had the auction been open to all citizens of this province, which is likely significantly lower than the price it would have reached had the auction been open to all citizens of this country, which is significantly lower than the price it would have reached had the auction been open to everyone in the world.

So yes, on average, if something's restricted to locals, it'll fetch a statistically lower price.

So I am glad you came around to my thinking! Now you understand that if you invested in a house in Vancouver a year earlier for three million dollars as a foreign investor from Quebec you will be able to make money in Vancouver real estate market.

Now do you have the basic statistics? Lets be honest it is the high end buyers that are from foreign countries. So if you have a high end place you will get a high end dividend right?

[mistercorporate]

Sunsetmountaintroll is taking stupidity to a whole other level, if we're in the habit of banning trolls can we also get in the habit of banning super dumb yet obnoxiously outspoken people? The stupidity on some of these posts is hurting my brain.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

Sunsetmountaintroll is taking stupidity to a whole other level, if we're in the habit of banning trolls can we also get in the habit of banning super dumb yet obnoxiously outspoken people? The stupidity on some of these posts is hurting my brain.

Posted 26 May 2015 - 09:30 PM


I have decided to join this forum since I realize that if you are from B.C. you are scum!

http://forum.skyscra...192230&page=161

Now I am suspended from this forum for asking questions. Since I have been suspended I will no longer be part of this society. I think that lots from this forum found this out earlier! Since I have a passion for Nanaimo. I think your forum would be good for me.

I like Dylan, but I have now lost hope for the agenda of people from back east! It is not worth my while to contribute to such a corrupt system. I will be happy to be apart (?)of this forum. I was born in Victoria as well as grew up in Lantzville.

Cheers

http://vibrantvictoria.ca/forum/index.ph...-i-was-suspended-from-skyscraperpagecom/

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

Now since we all know you do not like Chinese! Yes local means Hong Kong and mainland China expats! Tons whom have been living in Vancouver before you moved here or were born!

I have nothing against most Chinese but I do against people who see the country as nothing more than a place to launder their dirty money and a quick passport so they can get out of China before the ominous knock on the door from the anti-corruption squad.

I guess I'm weird..........I just think Canadians housing needs should come before anyone else's.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

Sunsetmountaintroll is taking stupidity to a whole other level, if we're in the habit of banning trolls can we also get in the habit of banning super dumb yet obnoxiously outspoken people? The stupidity on some of these posts is hurting my brain.

Um yeah, I though once std7860 had ridden off into the sunset mountainland we were done with trolls.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Procrastinational

http://www.adrianspitters.com/familywealthadvisor/time-different-housing-bubble/

If it walks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck.

Looking at that chart, all I can think of is this:

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I have nothing against most Chinese but I do against people who see the country as nothing more than a place to launder their dirty money and a quick passport so they can get out of China before the ominous knock on the door from the anti-corruption squad.

I guess I'm weird..........I just think Canadians housing needs should come before anyone else's.

Lol even if they were 100 percent just regular every day 1 percenters in china, I don't think we have any reason to be apologetic about another countries 1 percenters.

I despise wealthy people, and I think people who pretend that somehow they are our buddies are really just weak minded people.

The reality is it's the richest .1 percent of chinese money launderers that are the problem. They aren't legit money, and they sure as hell don't represent the average person be it chinese or canadian.

They are distorting the market, that's a fact.

This apologist for the rich really gets old online.

I at times can be relatively capitalistic and conversative, however I can never understand how that somehow makes the top 1 percent less of a problem.

The entire idea of competitive economy is that everyone more or less gets valued by what their potential productive output can be.

1 percenters represent a failure of this.

[Tropics]

Originally Posted by Stryker

I despise wealthy people, and I think people who pretend that somehow they are our buddies are really just weak minded people.

Your kind of "special" aren't you...

[someone123]

Did anybody mention the US interest rate increase?

Canada is now in the completely predictable situation of having to either raise its own rates or allow the favourable US rates to cause the dollar here to fall in value. A lot of people here in Vancouver are so heavily in debt that they probably wouldn't be able to handle medium-term interest rate increases of a few percentage points. So there's a good chance that we're stuck between a housing market collapse or a "northern peso" type of scenario.

Given how deeply in debt many people are with housing it would also take almost nothing for them to be underwater and have a negative net worth despite having invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in real estate. It won't take much of a relative change in the value of those $1M houses.

[geotag277]

We did talk about rates. Specifically the US rate is roughly half the Canada prime rate, which doesn't make a lot of sense considering the US economy is generally strong and the Canada one generally weak. Canada has plenty of room to move to lower it's own rate, and of course there will be CAD implications.

As a country we should be moving to get away from the shocks to our economy that the CAD to USD exchange rate generally incurs. We are so dependent on USA trade in part due to NAFTA. TPP will help us diversify our trading partners.

[rousseau]

I don't see the downside of having a weak Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Save for maybe snowbirds, but screw them: what's important is our economy, not the financial comfort of 70-year-olds wintering in Florida.

With the massive market next door, our manufacturing economy can regain steam again. As long as the Canadian dollar remains strong/viable against other currencies it shouldn't have much effect on our quality of life. When vacation time comes you either stay in the country, or maybe you make more trips to Latin America and/or Europe instead of always going to the US. And we'll see more incoming trips from other countries, specifically the US. What's not to like?

Seems win-win to me. Full disclosure: it's also very good for me personally, as I get paid in US dollars. I can't make a living with the loonie at par with the greenback, so yeah, I'm biased. I'm actually still recovering financially from 2008, believe it or not. This past year has been a godsend, no question. Still though, this really does suit Canada best. Having the loonie at par with the greenback was a fool's errand. It did us no good.

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by rousseau

With the massive market next door, our manufacturing economy can regain steam again.

What manufacturing economy? This isn't like the old days.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by rousseau

Having the loonie at par with the greenback was a fool's errand. It did us no good.

I agree, I think many businesses in Canada found it quite unnatural and struggled to adapt to it. It was a consequence of our oil exports being valued disproportionately high and our dollar taking on "petrodollar" characteristics.

For all the huffing and puffing about how "Canada failed to diversify away from oil" and all the other nonsense, what is happening now is naturally what happens when you take absurd oil growth out of the economic picture for Canada. The Canadian dollar loses some value, and it's really not such a bad thing all around.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by Berklon

What manufacturing economy? This isn't like the old days.

Quebec exports will increase by 10 % in 2015 and 8% in 2016.

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by Berklon

What manufacturing economy? This isn't like the old days.

Don't be silly, there are literally thousands of manufacturing plants in Southern Ontario alone. Most of those warehouse type buildings you see from the freeway anywhere around Toronto and surrounding highways are manufacturing something.

[rbt]

Originally Posted by rousseau

With the massive market next door, our manufacturing economy can regain steam again. As long as the Canadian dollar remains strong/viable against other currencies it shouldn't have much effect on our quality of life.

Low dollar will throw a lifeline to western oil too. Labour is a huge cost in that industry and that cost has just dropped by 30% relative to their southern competitors.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by rbt

Low dollar will throw a lifeline to western oil too. Labour is a huge cost in that industry and that cost has just dropped by 30% relative to their southern competitors.

How so? Don't the Canadian workers get paid in Canadian dollars?

People are talking about the now higher cost of importing materials and products from the US, but shouldn't this ideally spur us on into making our own materials and products?

Like, shouldn't we do the patriotic thing and buy a Blackberry instead of a new iPhone? I know I have. Though to be honest, I just really prefer the physical keyboard, and I bought mine used anyway (though that still has a positive impact, however indirect and small compared to buying new).

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

Don't be silly, there are literally thousands of manufacturing plants in Southern Ontario alone. Most of those warehouse type buildings you see from the freeway anywhere around Toronto and surrounding highways are manufacturing something.

Yea, it's obviously an exaggeration used to state a point. Yes, manufacturing exists - it just isn't as large as it used to be. And I bet we'll see very little improvement to our economy because of it and will certainly not offset the increased unemployment.

Canada is not in a good position.

[rbt]

Originally Posted by rousseau

How so? Don't the Canadian workers get paid in Canadian dollars?

They certainly do and often the sales contracts for the oil are in US funds.

[ssiguy]

Certainly the Ontario and Quebec economies will do well with the declining dollar but much of the damage has been done.

Harper's "energy superpower" policy led to a soaring of the Canadian dollar and the advantages of Central Canadian manufacturing were quickly swept away. It was classic Dutch Disease. Many manufacturers left and will not come back but those that stayed will reap the rewards of higher exports thru the low dollar subsidy.