YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion - Page 419

Cage · #**8361** Posted **Dec 18, 2015, 4:09 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Here's a possible configuration of the seats if flights all go through YVR.

AC YVR-SYD - 787-900 - 7 Per week - 2,100
AC YVR-BNE - 787-800 - 7 Per week - 1,757
AC YVR-MEL - 787-800 - 7 Per week - 1,757

QF YVR-SYD - 787-900 - 7 Per week - 2,100
QF YVR-BNE - 787-800 - 5 Per week - 1,250
.

A little bit of inside baseball perspective, daily Canada-Australia is a 2 airplane commitment.

On the AC side, this would require AC to commit half their 788 fleet to Australia. More realistic is BNe at 3x per week with the 788 and MEL at 4x per week with the 789.

On the QF side, they only have 8 789 s on order, no 788. Further the QF 789 replace 5 744s. The option above would not allow for any additional growth beyond Canada.

Economically speaking, AC dreamliners have 30% capital cost advantage over equivalent QF airplanes. Operating costs will be the same. AC dreamliners have high density seating arrangement for mainline equipment. For these reasons, QF is going to have stiff competition from AC on the Canada to Australia market.

trofirhen · #**8362** Posted **Dec 18, 2015, 4:20 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cage

YYZ-Australia is not commercially viable as a nonstop service. There are too many one stop options to make it work from an economic perspective. Keep in mind the cost of transporting fuel on ULH runs make them less competitive than doing to Longhaul runs.

Any Canada-Australia service will have a western North America departure port.

Under the Yyz-LAX-SYD option, UA would have withdrawn their service and code share joint venture with AC. at the time UA was flying 744s on the run that cannot compete cost and profit wise with the 77W. I also believe the lax stop used the USA traffic rights and this was a method to get around existing bilateral. Now UA has their own 77W on order for delivery in 2016.

Interesting info. Thanks, Cage.
Well anyway, at least for Canada, and maybe the US PNW, YVR is still King of all the Pacific, for the while, anyway.
(However, though, YYZ is only 13228 km from Manila, and YVR's current PR monopoly could be due to the less $$ fuel efficient A340. (*please correct me if I'm wrong)
Could a PR change of metal could change the dynamic around that quite feasibly ... and a potential reduction in frequency YVR - MNL.) Or not?
I'm not trying to play the pessimist here, I just wonder if what I perceive, coming, coming. Toronto has a larger Philippine community than Vancouver, already!.

Cage · #**8363** Posted **Dec 18, 2015, 4:20 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Nevermind, just re-read your post, that's a total of 9,000 seats per week EACH!

That's 18,000 seats per week total. Wow.

I'm not even going to bother looking at possible ways to fill that. If both AC and QF ran daily flights from all 4 airports using a 787-900 (2 flights per day to YVR from SYD, MEL, BNE and PER) that wouldn't even fill the capacity.

Might as well just remove the capacity restrictions altogether. Makes me thing YYZ might be in play after all, which isn't great news for YVR.

IIRC, capacity adjustments are technical Ammendment whereas removal of capacity restrictions requires a completely new agreement. It is likely that one or both countries have objections to some bilateral requirements that prevent a completely new agreement from being negotiated. For example the Australians are much more accepting of foreign airlines using their traffic allotment than most other countries would allow.

trofirhen · #**8364** Posted **Dec 18, 2015, 9:43 PM**

Is there a big enough market to warrant YVR - PERTH? If so, Vancouver would be the Sovereign airport of the Pacific Rim, especially adding SIN, BKK, and KUL? Even OKD (Sapporo).
(I'd love to see a YVR - PPT seasonal, too) Air France? Air Tahiti Nui? Given such a prospective scenario, YVR would indeed be a global mini-hub, one for all the Pacific.
And I'd rather like that !!!

casper · #**8365** Posted **Dec 19, 2015, 1:41 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Is there a big enough market to warrant YVR - PERTH? If so, Vancouver would be the Sovereign airport of the Pacific Rim, especially adding SIN, BKK, and KUL? Even OKD (Sapporo).
(I'd love to see a YVR - PPT seasonal, too) Air France? Air Tahiti Nui? Given such a prospective scenario, YVR would indeed be a global mini-hub, one for all the Pacific.
And I'd rather like that !!!

I don't know about Perth. It is in the opposite end of Australia. That is a long way to go. I don't even think they have a flight to LAX.

Once or twice a week I could see a YVR-Hawaii-Caines flight. That is a major tourist destination. Maybe a Rogue flight.

The PPT flight is a weird destination. There is probably some government between PPT and Paris. Lots of tourist.

thebus · #**8366** Posted **Dec 21, 2015, 12:48 AM**

http://www.ausbt.com.au/air-canada-daily-brisbane-vancouver-boeing-787-flight-from-june-2016

AC has moved YVR-BNE to daily. Didn't take long to act on the increase in bilateral capacity.

Hourglass · #**8367** Posted **Dec 21, 2015, 1:52 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thebus

http://www.ausbt.com.au/air-canada-daily-brisbane-vancouver-boeing-787-flight-from-june-2016

AC has moved YVR-BNE to daily. Didn't take long to act on the increase in bilateral capacity.

I guess the forward bookings must be looking good for AC as well -- even with the change in the bilateral, I doubt they would go daily otherwise.

Wonder whether this increase in capacity will impact QF's plans to eventually serve YVR

trofirhen · #**8368** Posted **Dec 21, 2015, 2:09 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hourglass

I guess the forward bookings must be looking good for AC as well -- even with the change in the bilateral, I doubt they would go daily otherwise.

Wonder whether this increase in capacity will impact QF's plans to eventually serve YVR

I hope the eventual impact will be positive, and not negative. Surely QF will want a bigger slice of the YVR - AUS market.

deasine · #**8369** Posted **Dec 21, 2015, 8:36 PM**

I don't think it should impact QF too much. It probably isn't QFs best interest to serve from too many Australian destinations as it relies on domestic feed from SYD. Whereas AC relies on feed from Canada/US to some small degree going to Australia (there's not that many passengers on a % that connect domestic). If anything this will impact NZ...

SFUVancouver · #**8370** Posted **Dec 21, 2015, 8:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by deasine

I don't think it should impact QF too much. It probably isn't QFs best interest to serve from too many Australian destinations as it relies on domestic feed from SYD. Whereas AC relies on feed from Canada/US to some small degree going to Australia (there's not that many passengers on a % that connect domestic). If anything this will impact NZ...

Now that is an interesting thought. I know that we were thinking of looking into an Air New Zealand option for future travel to Australia, however with additional direct YVR-AUS routes, the appeal of a further detour into New Zealand loses its appeal, even if the price-point comes in slightly below the AC and QF options.

Johnny Aussie · #**8371** Posted **Dec 22, 2015, 3:32 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thebus

http://www.ausbt.com.au/air-canada-daily-brisbane-vancouver-boeing-787-flight-from-june-2016

AC has moved YVR-BNE to daily. Didn't take long to act on the increase in bilateral capacity.

That's excellent... They must have anticipated the increase in capacity and obviously already had this in their fleet plan.

Next summer AC at YVR will now have nine daily mainline overseas flights up from seven last summer. Plus additional capacity on SYD and PVG.

This will not deter QF in the slightest. They can leverage off their One World strength down under. QF will still be a big draw for Aussie originating pax. Offering a year-round service will be more appealing and if it's daily, even better.

As for NZ, don't see NZ as a detour... NZ is a fantastic and amazing place to visit. I would actually encourage a trip down under via NZ anyway. That's what I am encouraging my parents to do on their upcoming trip to Australia. And Air NZ service is excellent.

Klazu · #**8372** Posted **Dec 22, 2015, 6:57 AM**

New Zealand is nice, but it's still a detour vs. direct flight. Does anyone have an idea what percentage of Air New Zealand's YVR passengers continue towards Australia?

trofirhen · #**8373** Posted **Dec 22, 2015, 12:33 PM**

I wonder if we'll ever get Fiji back, as well as Tahiti? (seasonal, of course).

Klazu · #**8374** Posted **Dec 22, 2015, 1:20 PM**

I would love that as I would love visiting both. Now you have to take a detour to get there.

west1266 · #**8375** Posted **Dec 22, 2015, 3:55 PM**

I have used NZ via Auckland many times in fact it is my airline of choice flying down-under. They offer better value when flying PE or bus than AC. I will be heading to Sydney in March and will take NZ again. New Zealand is a beautiful country well worth visiting.

hoboman27 · #**8376** Posted **Dec 22, 2015, 6:13 PM**

YVR hits 20M Passengers and mentions new incentive program, "ConnectYVR"

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/hits+record+million+passengers/11606863/story.html

Anyone got more info on their ConnectYVR program? Sounds interesting.

Johnny Aussie · #**8377** Posted **Dec 22, 2015, 9:46 PM**

I just arrived into YVR from PEK this morning and I thought I was the 20 millionth passenger..... Darn it!

Air China's 77W was really nice and I like their new inflight mapper system.

Hot Rod · #**8378** Posted **Dec 23, 2015, 10:30 PM**

pics?

SFUVancouver · #**8379** Posted **Dec 23, 2015, 11:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I just arrived into YVR from PEK this morning and I thought I was the 20 millionth passenger..... Darn it!

Air China's 77W was really nice and I like their new inflight mapper system.

Welcome home!

Johnny Aussie · #**8380** Posted **Dec 24, 2015, 3:34 AM**

^^ thanks!

So nice to be back in cooler temps and fresh air after the disgusting air pollution in Bejing and the 40+ temps down under we've been having.

Went from 42C to about 42F.

Because our flight was about an hour early we missed the rush hour... No wait in primary inspection just walked up to the first counter... What a treat. Baggage was delivered in decent time too as well considering we were at the last gate on D Concourse - D64.

I did take some pics so I'll see if I can upload some to imagur.

The CA 77W was such an improvement over the CA 332 we had on the MEL-PEK sector two days before.

Speaking of PEK, they are going to hit just shy of 90 million pax this year, while ATL will hit 100 million pax probably this Sunday.

Edit: forgot to mention on arrival all the mainland Chinese Airlines that currently serve YVR were on the ground and right next to each other... Sichuan, China Eastern, China Southern and the first Air China of the day was still on the ground. So 5 mainland Chinese planes at once (including my Air China 77W). By this time next year there may be 8 flying to YVR.....