Calgary International Airport II

[Bigtime]

Regardless of it the route stands the test of time or not I hope to be out there on the inaugural day getting some shots of a new tail at YYC.

[Cowtown_Tim]

You can have all the doubts you want, and you can also keep hating YYC. In the end your doubts and stats mean 🞵🞵🞵🞵 all, because the inferior little old cowtown on the prairies is getting a direct route to China, and if it wasn't HU we would still get one with AC/CA.

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

I have my doubts as well. HU isn't as big in PEK as CA, and they only interline with WS, so they are limited with onward feed at YYC. It will definately be tougher for them compared to AC/CA.

Timing on the route will be key.

As for the demand, a guy on airliners said O&D on PEK-YYC is 25,000.

That is indeed a pretty low figure for a new long haul route. Just to compare, PEK-YUL is almost twice that, and as I said, with AC/CA's joint venture and hub access at each end, is a much easier route to pull off than HU on PEK-YYC. The dreamliner will definately come in handy on this route, as they will need to penny pinch as much as they can, especially with the current economic climate of Alberta. Plus with the "one route one airline'" policy, HU might want to hold onto YYC, if for nothing else to keep CA out of the market.

That being said, HU definately has a track record of failed long haul routes. BUD, DXB, CAI, IST, LAD, ZRH are just a few. Some of those, the reasons are evident, some aren't.



Hey man, we are taking hug risks here. Diving into shark infested waters and swimming against the current !

Plus sometimes, we look 🞵🞵🞵🞵 hot when we get it right !

Besides, who are you fooling, you're skeptical yourself...

[The Chemist]

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

Good news for YYC. I would have preferred YYC - HKG, but this will still be good.

Personally I'd have liked YYC-PVG, but once this flight begins I'll certainly go out of my way to use it (probably HSR to Beijing first )to make sure that Calgary-China flights remain a reality.

[ACT7]

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

Demand might be less than YUL, but you can't base everything off of that figure. You have to assume that they are trying to get traffic from other sites, YEG, YQR, etc.. also a direct flight there might change things. Is it guaranteed to be a success? Of course not, no new route ever is, and everyone here knows that. Regardless of your negative analysis and predictions for 5 years down the road, it doesn't matter, the route is coming and it's a good day for YYC. 🞵🞵🞵🞵 on that long and hard.



And not so hot if you don't get it right. Anyone can make predictions, they're cheap and take all of three seconds to do so.

You're right that O&D demand isn't everything - I don't recall anyone actually ever saying that. If that were the case, DXB to anywhere would never succeed. But 25,000 pax a year is not a great start either when YYC is not a major connecting hub. The feeder cities into Calgary are not so huge that HU has that much to draw from beyond the O&D demand.

Yes, a new route can also stimulate demand and routes that seem unlikely to succeed sometimes do very well. Time will tell.

But to dismiss some analysis of the route as petty or negative is just weird. "out provincers" or even "out of country-ers" are still entitled to post on here when they can make a valid point (or even if they can't).

[holhm22]

Wow... Absolutely crazy day for YYC. Can't believe all this is really happening.. Would've preferred YYC<>HKG myself (biased), but any new link to Asia is just too awesome.

[Bokimon]

I think it is great news to hear without getting too overconfident on our abilities to produce the needed demand to support this route. A 4x weekly sounds just fine to start off and if that is all that is required to keep YYC profitable, then I am fine with that.
We have 3 cities in europe and soon 2 to asia linking the city on a permanent basis.

Pretty remarkable for a cowtown with the same population of Salt Lake City or Oklahoma City.

Update, this got me thinking.. Do you guys know of any other North American city that has scheduled international flights which are of comparable size to Calgary's economy?
I thought Charleston SC has flights to europe at one point and they have less than a million people. I'm sure others near the Mexican border will have flights down to that country which I suppose can count if the original criteria is bleak.

[cyeg66]

Originally Posted by ACT7

You're right that O&D demand isn't everything - I don't recall anyone actually ever saying that.

But to dismiss some analysis of the route as petty or negative is just weird. "out provincers" or even "out of country-ers" are still entitled to post on here when they can make a valid point (or even if they can't).

Fantastic, ground breaking analysis:

Originally Posted by ACT7

....but I'd be surprised if it lasts very long. I'm generously giving it 5 years. Either that or AC pull out of NRT.

Weekly flights to China ex-YVR next summer: 75+
Currently from YYC (read: Alberta): 0

Do you think that maybe more than a few of those flights from YVR are propped up by the Alberta(and points east)-->YVR-->China traveller? No? You're in luck, then, just so happens I'm putting a bridge on the market... O&D, in the most pure sense of the term, doesn't a route make. If so, YVR wouldn't have infinite more Chinese flights than YYC. The gap is huge, but not that huge.

I agree with you that it'll be an interesting litmus test of sorts, but my point is that it's being given a death sentence before even starting. Hell, has it even been 100% confirmed yet? I'll believe it only when I see it on my radar.
Timing could also be an issue but at least someone jumped at the opportunity. We all know it was only a matter of time. True, we all expected it to be Air Canada, just not so soon, and definitely not a competitor. That's what makes it interesting, but not "shocking" or "preposterous".

[yyc_engineer]

Originally Posted by cyeg66

Weekly flights to China ex-YVR next summer: 75+
Currently from YYC (read: Alberta): 0

This is a good point.

I liken it to the recent and continued expansion of service from N.A. to the interior of China. eg. United has begun serving secondary Chinese cities such as Chengdu and Xi'an (I bet 99% of (Non-Asian) North Americans have never heard of these places). Similarly, the next step for Chinese and Asian airlines is to expand into the "interior" of N.A. and for this Calgary makes sense (ethnically diverse, wealthy, business oriented population with the highest number or airline seats per capita in the country).

If Hainan can make San Jose (which has SFO next door) and Seattle (which is all but a Delta hub now) work, I think YYC has a shot.

Yes you could argue the economy is not the best right now, Hainan is not part of Star Alliance (of course no Canadian flies anything but Air Canada - and all those KLM, BA, Icelandair, American, Delta, Alaska and WestJet flights depart empty every day ), people will never give up their Aeroplan points, blah blah blah, but taking the risk to be the first Asian airline to start regularly scheduled service to Alberta takes balls! - and for this they earn some respect in my books.

[yyc_engineer]

Originally Posted by Bokimon

Update, this got me thinking.. Do you guys know of any other North American city that has scheduled international flights which are of comparable size to Calgary's economy?

The only one I can think of that comes close is SJC (San Jose, California). Next summer, SJC will have flights to London (BA), Frankfurt (LH), Tokyo (ANA) and Beijing (HU) and a couple spots in Mexico. The population of San Jose proper is <1 million but then you have to take into account the entire Silicon Valley region, but then account for the fact that there are 3 airports serving the greater SFO/OAK/SJC region - so it's not really a direct comparison.

YYC definitely has the greatest International air service for a region <1.5M in North America. (maybe even <2M)?

EDIT: I would like to retract my last sentence as the Las Vegas metro has a population <2M (1.95M) and they definitely have greater International air service than us. I stand behind by <1.5M region comment. Could maybe even bump that up to <1.9M

EDIT 2: Also remove Honolulu and Cancun, both those cities are under 1M but huge tourist destinations so not really fair comparison with YYC.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by yyc_engineer

Similarly, the next step for Chinese and Asian airlines is to expand into the "interior" of N.A. and for this Calgary makes sense (ethnically diverse, wealthy, business oriented population with the highest number or airline seats per capita in the country).

Yes you could argue the economy is not the best right now, Hainan is not part of Star Alliance (of course no Canadian flies anything but Air Canada - and all those KLM, BA, Icelandair, American, Delta, Alaska and WestJet flights depart empty every day ), people will never give up their Aeroplan points, blah blah blah, but taking the risk to be the first Asian airline to start regularly scheduled service to Alberta takes balls! - and for this they earn some respect in my books.

I agree that the YYC market has matured enough for a direct flight to PEK.

Just in regards to your comment about interior cities. Don't forget some of these interior cities in China are 5 million plus, many over 7 million +. The Chinese propensity to travel is just really starting to awaken. What I think we will see is more Chinese interior city connections to those cities in NA with huge local O&D markets first before more forays into interior North America cities.

Also don't forget the YYC-Europe market and YYC-USA market are just that much larger than Asia. So definitely more pax to fill those planes to Europe and the US.

I still really think Air China or Air Canada would have a much better chance of success. Elites and Super Elites (ok... most but not all of course) will still pick a Star Alliance carrier even if that means a stop enroute. I certainly know I would unfortunately even if that means forgoing a nonstop option. I fly Australia - Canada a lot among other places... If QF started a MEL-YVR nonstop tomorrow I would still choose NZ via AKL as my #1 choice (of course in this example QF has a huge pool of QF frequent fliers on this end who would choose the nonstop).

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by cyeg66

If so, YVR wouldn't have infinite more Chinese flights than YYC. The gap is huge, but not that huge.

Believe it or not YVR-China O&D is 9-10x that of YYC. Hard to fathom that is true but all the stats I've seen lately indicate that is the case.

Even Air Canada is projecting the YVR-China market in Canada to remain the fastest growing as well through 2018 at least.

Air Canada projecting the following Canadian-China market volumes by 2018:

YVR 390,000 (an increase of over 120,000 from 2013)
YYZ 330,000 (an increase of about 105,000)
YUL 96,000 (an increase of about 30,000)
YYC 45,000 (an increase of 15,000)
YOW 30,000 (an increase of 10,000)

[cyeg66]

I'm well aware. That's what I meant by "huge", but certainly not "infinite". What I'm saying is, I think we can safely dispense with the "only YVR (and YYZ) can support direct China service" mentality because the way I see it, there are people of Asian heritage in grands nombres all over (the rest of) Canada, not just the west coast. There comes a point when there are more than enough potential passengers settled elsewhere in the interior that will render a Prairies-->China flight viable. I think this date has come and gone and it was only a matter of time before direct service was introduced. Still shocked it's not AC, frankly.

[ACT7]

Originally Posted by cyeg66

I'm well aware. That's what I meant by "huge", but certainly not "infinite". What I'm saying is, I think we can safely dispense with the "only YVR (and YYZ) can support direct China service" mentality because the way I see it, there are people of Asian heritage in grands nombres all over (the rest of) Canada, not just the west coast. There comes a point when there are more than enough potential passengers settled elsewhere in the interior that will render a Prairies-->China flight viable. I think this date has come and gone and it was only a matter of time before direct service was introduced. Still shocked it's not AC, frankly.

Actually, as of 2012 the O&D market between China and YVR was 436K and between China and YYZ was 400K. Both those markets have grown pretty substantially since then. YYZ has the added advantage of having a Chinese population of 600K and is within a 2 hour flight of 100 million people. Hence AC's hub strategy. YVR is likely almost entirely O&D as it's not even a true connecting hub the purest sense.

And, again, it's not just about numbers - it's about yield. Yes the 787 will make the route more efficient, but just filling planes isn't the answer. Otherwise YYZ-DEL would never have failed as often as it did.

Even YVR was a grind for AC to make their routes profitable, as recently as 2012. The volume was there but the yields were low, hence the high density replacements and 787 deployment. So, if a market with over 400K of O&D demand was still a bit of a struggle for yield, all I'm saying is that O&D demand more than 10 times smaller, at a smaller "hub", with a non *A airline, will be a difficult go.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on...sia-for-low-cost-airline/article4253877/

“Vancouver has been an underperforming market for Air Canada on international routes,” said one industry official. “Air Canada is trying to figure out how to make Vancouver work.”

[YYCMatt]

If this route does go ahead, gotta think that setting up a codeshare with WS would be a priority for Hainan.

[PPAR]

I doubt the decision on this route had anything to do with the current state of the market. It is a bet on a potential future in which the price of oil recovers, business activity between China and the oil patch grows and the Chinese diaspora continues to expand.
In this world, CA would want the route, but would be blocked. Fortune favours the brave.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by YYCMatt

If this route does go ahead, gotta think that setting up a codeshare with WS would be a priority for Hainan.

Absolutely.

Another priority will be to get decent slot times out of PEK. Let's see how that goes. They are launching TLV and MAN in a few months, and both flights depart PEK around 2 am and return at 5 am. That kind of timing will not work for YYC. Hopefully they have access to slot times other than midnight hours.

Originally Posted by PPAR

I doubt the decision on this route had anything to do with the current state of the market. It is a bet on a potential future in which the price of oil recovers, business activity between China and the oil patch grows and the Chinese diaspora continues to expand.
In this world, CA would want the route, but would be blocked. Fortune favours the brave.

I agree entirely...

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Plus with the "one route one airline'" policy, HU might want to hold onto YYC, if for nothing else to keep CA out of the market.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Regardless of it the route stands the test of time or not I hope to be out there on the inaugural day getting some shots of a new tail at YYC.

That's exactly it. Regardless of the numbers and the predictions of success or failure, YYC is getting a direct flight to China. It's pretty cool news for Calgary.

Maybe the route fails down the road...who knows? In the end it's about the big picture. YYC will continue to grow over the long-term and if this route fails, another route to China will take it's place plus we will see more overseas routes as time goes on. Good times ahead for YYC

[EdmontonTraveller]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Another priority will be to get decent slot times out of PEK. Let's see how that goes. They are launching TLV and MAN in a few months, and both flights depart PEK around 2 am and return at 5 am. That kind of timing will not work for YYC. Hopefully they have access to slot times other than midnight hours.

Would the flight survive 18 months until the 4th runway; 30 months until the new airport? Completion of either should solve the slot issue for at least existing flights (barring further airspace restrictions).

I'm a little surprised at the cheering for HU - current route map shows very few connections for Asia ex-China. And 76 departures daily (worldwide) isn't the most robust schedule. Too many other options for Western Canada-YVR-China to consider if HU flights are poorly timed. A YYC only-China flight isn't likely to be financially successful w/o major increase in inbound tourism (which AC is predicting?) All easily solved w/ HU expansion in PEK....

Hope HU works out well for YYC!

[Surrealplaces]

I think the cheering is more about just getting a route to China period. Even if the route fails, it's kind of like once the flight is there the gates of opportunity are open....even if it's another route with another Chinese airline at a later date.

Originally Posted by EdmontonTraveller

Would the flight survive 18 months until the 4th runway; 30 months until the new airport? Completion of either should solve the slot issue for at least existing flights (barring further airspace restrictions).

I'm a little surprised at the cheering for HU - current route map shows very few connections for Asia ex-China. And 76 departures daily (worldwide) isn't the most robust schedule. Too many other options for Western Canada-YVR-China to consider if HU flights are poorly timed. A YYC only-China flight isn't likely to be financially successful w/o major increase in inbound tourism (which AC is predicting?) All easily solved w/ HU expansion in PEK....

Hope HU works out well for YYC!

[simster3]

I flew on one of LAN's 787 from LIM to LAX on early wednesday morning. The plane was great, but the seats were pretty basic. Then I had a flight on Rouge for the first time too. They were ok for a 3 hour flight, seats are ok. I don't really see a difference between Rouge and mainline, or any other NA carrier, for the short flights.