DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[seventwenty]

Between the 170 or so people flying to either AMS or CDG, you'd think the Air France/KLM group would want to give Denver a shot. One small problem though: Air France and KLM are in an alliance with Delta over in SkyTeam. United is in Star Alliance. Both Delta and United have Mountain West hubs. We just needle the Delta hub town.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by seventwenty

Even though we are a United hub, if there's no serious demand for a flight, an airline won't fly a route. While not exactly useful in 2015, here is Brooking's 2011 interactive report on international origin-destination for air travel.

Other than incremental changes I'd guess 2011 is fairly indicative.

The exceptions that I'd guess at from following airport passenger growth would start with Texas, specifically Dallas. DFW has really grown plus with the merger of American and U.S. Air, American announced a half-dozen new international flights from Dallas over the summer, mostly to Asia and that was on top of previous growth at DFW. Presumably Miami with its robust growth has added a gaggle of international flights as well. After that I'd look at San Francisco.

Knowing how little success Phoenix has had, Denver's growth looks impressive. A lot of Canadians down here and Sky Harbor did add another flight to Canada and I'm sure another flight or two to Mexico. Otherwise it's crickets.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Other than incremental changes I'd guess 2011 is fairly indicative.

The exceptions that I'd guess at from following airport passenger growth would start with Texas, specifically Dallas. DFW has really grown plus with the merger of American and U.S. Air, American announced a half-dozen new international flights from Dallas over the summer, mostly to Asia and that was on top of previous growth at DFW. Presumably Miami with its robust growth has added a gaggle of international flights as well. After that I'd look at San Francisco.

Knowing how little success Phoenix has had, Denver's growth looks impressive. A lot of Canadians down here and Sky Harbor did add another flight to Canada and I'm sure another flight or two to Mexico. Otherwise it's crickets.

Denver has several things working in its favor for more international flights than Phoenix. One is the United/Star Alliance hub. Another is Denver's location in the middle of the country with lots of flights just about everywhere domestically. And also tourism as Denver is the main gateway to the Rockies especially during the winter ski season even though some larger markets have direct flights to places like Aspen, Vail, Telluride, Steamboat, etc most still come through DIA. Add the booming population growth along the Front Range and a strong economy and you get more flights.

We will never have anywhere near the number as the coastal hubs though, or even Chicago, DFW, Houston and Atlanta, because you would be overflying too many hubs to get to Denver from all but the largest international hubs. 4-5 European cities, a couple in Asia and the Middle East and maybe one more in South America would be about the limit for awhile, and a lot of those would have to be United or Star Alliance routes to work. This in addition to the extensive network to Canada and Mexico, with a few more leisure flights to Central America and the Caribbean very possible with United, Frontier and Southwest.

[seventwenty]

Rent rate increases smaller but still happening: http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_29013199/average-metro-denver-apartment-rent-drops-5-downtown

Originally Posted by Denver Post

Weaker job growth and a wave of new units hitting the market slowed the rate of apartment rent increases across metro Denver last month, according to a report from Axiometrics.

Metro Denver apartment rents rose 8.8 percent on average in September from a year earlier. That's down from the 9.7 percent annual gain recorded in August and the slowest annual increase since June 2014.

That increase still ranks as the sixth fastest among the major metros that Axiometrics tracks. But the average apartment rent in Denver actually fell $5 between August and September to $1,359 a month, according to Axiometrics.

Still way too high, though.

[Octavian]

Originally Posted by chickenbone

Great work. Now that Lufthansa is resuming Munich, there probably isn't much chance of getting Swiss to start service to Denver. But I would love to see KLM try Denver from Amsterdam, Asiana or Korean from Seoul, and Turkish from Istanbul. That would add a ton of connectivity to Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Probably not gonna happen anytime soon, but if Denver keeps growing at this pace, I wouldn't be surprised if one of those routes is started sometime in the next 5 years.

Swiss is owned by Lufthansa, so probably not.

[Denver Dweller]

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2...BElKTwGoSbqOBYu5F%2FO7W7Amf&t=1445640006

[enjo13]

Originally Posted by Denver Dweller

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2...BElKTwGoSbqOBYu5F%2FO7W7Amf&t=1445640006

I have no educated opinion about the actual legal aspects of the case, but man I hope they win. Aurora is far better off with a stronger Denver... and giving away the farm to weaken it? Well that doesn't make any freaking sense.

[CharlesCO]

Originally Posted by BG918

Denver has several things working in its favor for more international flights than Phoenix. One is the United/Star Alliance hub. Another is Denver's location in the middle of the country with lots of flights just about everywhere domestically. And also tourism as Denver is the main gateway to the Rockies especially during the winter ski season even though some larger markets have direct flights to places like Aspen, Vail, Telluride, Steamboat, etc most still come through DIA. Add the booming population growth along the Front Range and a strong economy and you get more flights.

We will never have anywhere near the number as the coastal hubs though, or even Chicago, DFW, Houston and Atlanta, because you would be overflying too many hubs to get to Denver from all but the largest international hubs. 4-5 European cities, a couple in Asia and the Middle East and maybe one more in South America would be about the limit for awhile, and a lot of those would have to be United or Star Alliance routes to work. This in addition to the extensive network to Canada and Mexico, with a few more leisure flights to Central America and the Caribbean very possible with United, Frontier and Southwest.

I think this is spot on. It's great to see the MUC flight return, and I'm sure it can do well now that it'll be served on a better-suited aircraft and in better economic times. But I really wouldn't expect much more for DEN when it comes to international additions. I think UA could maybe bring back DEN-LHR, and *maybe* we'd see another route to Asia or TK, but anything beyond that is a pipe dream as far as I'm concerned. AF/KLM aren't going to be flying in here anytime soon as long as they're losing money on most of their existing long haul operations and are cutting routes.

We could maybe see adjustments in aircraft size and frequency to the routes we have now, but I think we should consider ourselves lucky to have the routes that we do have.

[TakeFive]

Easy Like Sunday Morning

Global Awards for Excellence - Urban Land Institute

2015 Winners
Ten real estate developments—five in North America, three in Europe, and two in Asia— were recognized by the 2015 ULI Global Awards for Excellence:

The ULI Global Awards for Excellence program is a timely reminder of the key difference that responsible land use can make in terms of community longevity and sustainability.
—Patrick L. Phillips, ULI Global CEO

Denver Union Station—2015 Global Awards for Excellence Winner
June 17, 2015 by Daniel Lobo, Urban Land Institute

Since its initial phases opened in 2014, the Union Transit Station project in Denver, Colorado, has succeeded as its stakeholders had envisioned, integrating disparate elements into a cohesive, inviting urban center. Some 19.5 acres (7.9 ha) of new office, retail, and residential development surround the newly renovated Union Station, where multiple modes of transportation converge at new bus, light rail, and passenger rail facilities—all of which are integrated with shops, restaurants, a boutique hotel, and inviting public spaces.

Receiving recognition and a little prestige is (almost) never a bad thing.

Courtesy City of Wheat Ridge

John Rebchook, Denver Real Estate Watch recently featured this Millennial loving, award winning Perrin’s Ridge project in Wheat Ridge. Apparently the ladies especially loved all that energy efficiency.

Pretty Nifty

• Video Link

[PLANSIT]

Not a fan of 2C.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by PLANSIT

Not a fan of 2C.

Pourquois?


Whooaa
Homes destroyed in Curtis Park neighborhood.

[bcp]

Foolish....what a waste of an idea with potential because you can't think two steps out and respect property rights...

[Matt]

[Zmapper]

A tower superimposed onto another tower.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by enjo13

I have no educated opinion about the actual legal aspects of the case, but man I hope they win. Aurora is far better off with a stronger Denver... and giving away the farm to weaken it? Well that doesn't make any freaking sense.

I'm not sure I buy the reflexive pro-regionalism propaganda anymore. The only thing we've gotten out of a stronger Denver is a Denver that no longer works for the poor and middle class - a rich white haven subsidized with regional taxes. If Aurora needs to pop Denver in the jaw a few times to restore some regional balance, I'm all for it.

I might also vote against the SCFD too. Let Denver fund its own cultural institutions. These days, it can afford it.

[mojiferous]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I'm not sure I buy the reflexive pro-regionalism propaganda anymore. The only thing we've gotten out of a stronger Denver is a Denver that no longer works for the poor and middle class - a rich white haven subsidized with regional taxes. If Aurora needs to pop Denver in the jaw a few times to restore some regional balance, I'm all for it.

I might also vote against the SCFD too. Let Denver fund its own cultural institutions. These days, it can afford it.

Translation: "I can't afford to live downtown anymore, but don't want to buy in cheaper suburbs or affordable parts of Denver, so I will lash out about every possible factor raising cost of living in Denver."

My advice: Get your head out of there Bunt, that isn't a hole in the ground!

Seriously though, you may have found a solution to rising costs in Denver - stop regional coordination, arts funding, and anything that makes the city in the least bit desirable. We should build disconnected, low-density developments on every available piece of land as far as the eye can see, and maybe re-open the smelters in Globeville. The traffic alone will cause thousands of people to leave and maybe downtown Denver will go back to the cheap, mostly-abandoned dreamworld that it was in the 90s when Bunt could easily afford to live there! There couldn't possibly be any downside to de-funding culture or neighboring cities that don't cooperate, and there probably aren't any real-world examples to dissuade you either!

[TakeFive]

The formula for distributing SCFD funds is changing modestly. Tier 1 will receive a lower percentage and Tier's 2 & 3 will receive more. That assumes the legislature goes along which I assume they will.

So amazing, Denver. While I see dings and potentially growing vulnerabilities nothing that portends any dramatic swings. Anything in the pipeline expected to break ground ovcer the next six months will likely do so.

Development, especially residential construction should move noticeably into the suburbs next year. That is the only significant change I can see. I would guess that at some point real estate prices will back-up 10-15% which would be pretty normal for a cycle like this.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I'm not sure I buy the reflexive pro-regionalism propaganda anymore. The only thing we've gotten out of a stronger Denver is a Denver that no longer works for the poor and middle class - a rich white haven subsidized with regional taxes. If Aurora needs to pop Denver in the jaw a few times to restore some regional balance, I'm all for it.

Seems like the only entity Aurora is popping in the jaw is itself. From the Gaylord debacle to the yet another attempt to build a goddamn racetrack for God knows who, Aurora is doing it right.

Though this leads to a question I have for you: It seems that the recent developments in Glendale and Aurora concerning the formation of metropolitan districts and how they are treated under TABOR raises all sorts of questions. Challenges to the the voting process seem to necessitate a change to how they are formed in order to make them legally defendable. Are cities going to have to start putting city employees in a trailer for 90 days or so on a site in order to show that the local voters approve of the district under TABOR?

I might also vote against the SCFD too. Let Denver fund its own cultural institutions. These days, it can afford it.

Denver certainly can, though all of those cute little theaters and arts groups elsewhere in the Metro area would be screwed. Which then means that the only place left to see some art will be Denver. Or the arts in the suburbs ends up being the sole purveyance of the rich white folks in places like Douglas County who can afford the $30-50 admission tickets.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by PLANSIT

Not a fan of 2C.

Why not? Do you think the tax extension would be better utilized elsewhere? I've heard some people bitch that it should have been used for something like a new funding stream for transit expansion, but I don't know if the lodging and auto rental tax can be re-purposed in such a radically different way.

I'm not a fan of 2A. If the City of Denver wants to provide scholarships to Denver students, then they should have stipulated that they attend a higher education institution located in the City of Denver, not Colorado as whole.

[PLANSIT]

^ Estentially, that's my beef. There are 50 things that I can think of that are actually needed and could be funded (with some word-smithing) through the tax.

Definitely not a fan of 2A.