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Originally Posted by Migs
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Quebec really is a tough one to predict now. The key question is whether any party has hit the FPTP tipping point.
Most likely, most of the seats in the 418 area code are going to the Conservatives, except for those in the fringes and the core of Quebec City. That actually will offset (or even more than offset) any losses in Atlantic Canada. However, they are surely still out to lunch in the rest of Quebec, and I see only one CPC seat outside of that region.
Greater Montreal might just be coming back to the Liberals. The area is more multicultural, which is beneficial for them, and there is a strong anti-Harper sentiment. Finally, the "Trudeau" name is not a liability here like in the rest of Quebec. The exception is in the east end, where the Bloc and NDP should be the battleground as that area is far to the left on almost all issues.
In the rest of Quebec outside of the Greater Montreal and Quebec City regions, the key questions are how strong is the niqab issue, how do the votes split and how strong is the anti-Harper sentiment. The Bloc has the left-wing anti-niqab position. However, can they capitalize on that? The NDP would otherwise be the "default" option, since Trudeau is NOT popular here. I think the NDP should be okay here as long as they stay ahead of the Bloc. After that, the Bloc should swing seats away.
Strangely enough, now, Quebec and Ontario seem to be in very similar positions...