Canada Election 2015

[Migs]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Obama was the best thing to happen to US politics since the Clinton days. He's totally changed that country for the better. Socially brought them into the 21st century.

This whole nonsense spitted from Conservatives and Republicans about how horrible Obama was is totally 🞵🞵🞵🞵. Since he was elected, the stock market has done very well, he survived the US through the massive economic crisis Bush handed to him, house prices are rising, the unemployment rate is at 5%, the economy is rebounding, hundreds of thousands of new jobs every month are filled, he's legalized gay marriage nationwide, ended wars, improved healthcare, and is an overall cool fun guy who engages with media and hollywood. If that's a dud President then I give up on rational of mankind. I want that in Canada.

You're kidding right? The American economy is in shambles, debt is up to $19 trillion with a T, poverty has skyrocketed, US foreign policy is a comedy show, & race relations are worse than they've been in a generation. Obama has been terrible.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Are you sure someone wanted them? Hard to imagine they wouldn't be offered first.

You would think, but in most cases they weren't. On Nightline, they said the files from here were shipped to the mainland under the pretense of getting them digitized but were instead destroyed.

Here's the most recent rundown of the process. This article isn't about what happened at our gutted federal libraries, but the process was more or less the same everywhere.

http://www.nationalobserver.com/2015/09/...er-governments-trashing-research-library

Here's a VICE article about some of the DFO libraries:

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/the-harpe...burned-environmental-books-and-documents

Originally Posted by JHikka

First time ever for what? Previous governments never contempted Parliament? Chretien never contempted government?

It was apparently the first time in any Commonwealth nation that an administration was ruled to be in Contempt of Parliament. There's a difference between partisan bickering and being legally deemed undemocratic.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Migs

You're kidding right? The American economy is in shambles...

By what metric? Unemployment rate? GDP?

I think you're the one who's kidding here... or else you haven't left your cave lately.

[Spliff]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I said backbone of support. Backbone. Perhaps Spliff, you should read before you type.

Intolerant people don't vote for Olivia Chow. They vote for Rob Ford.
Intolerant people don't vote for Barack Obama. They vote for asswipes like Trump.
Intolerant people don't vote for Mulcair. They vote for Harper.

You seem to be intolerant - and apparently you will vote for Mulcair or Trudeau.

[RWin]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

You're right in that I loathe Stephen Harper and the current CPC probably as much as MIGS wants to bone them.

I should not have read that with a mouth full of coffee

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by lio45

Do you honestly think the Liberal Party and Justin Trudeau are new, competent, exciting, refreshing, etc.? (Think Obama in '08.)

Same question for the NDP and Mulcair. Do you?

Quite frankly, I wouldn't find it abnormal for the Tories to get another minority at least. The alternatives are far from problem-free themselves.

Is the status quo really so wonderful? I would counter it isn't for many people in this country beyond diehard CPC supporters. No one is saying JT or Mulcair are the greatest thing since sliced bread. Anything would be better than the robot we have in power now though.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Elaboration?


How so?


Are you sure someone wanted them? Hard to imagine they wouldn't be offered first.


First time ever for what? Previous governments never contempted Parliament? Chretien never contempted government?

I don't think he was ever formally held in contempt of Parliament. He was an 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 but didn't go so far as Harper.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I disagree with your prediction. It may scare off "some" voters, but it would also pull voters from the Bloc and Greens that would have been lost under the LPC. But neither would be enough to significantly alter the outcome.

Well, using your hypothetical scenario for removal of the Liberal Party altogether and turning the national election dynamic into a strictly 2-way race between the Cons and NDP... you are reverting to the "BC-model" - which is strictly BC Liberal ("blue" liberals and tories) and BC NDP ("red" liberals and old NDP). Do you really want that?

The NDP brand here provincially in BC is badly damaged and continues to impact fed NDP perceptions. Many people here in BC vote "lesser of 2 evils".

In fact, if it was a straight 2-way race in BC, between the Cons and NDP... and am very familiar with all fed ridings here in BC... demographics, provincial/federal voting trends, etc., etc. the BC outcome would be ~30 Cons, 10 NDP, and 2 Greens (give or take a couple of seats). And yes, I threw in the Greens as they are becoming mainstream in certain areas.

The Cons would likely sweep BC's interior, Fraser Valley, Metro Vancouver's southern/eastern suburbs, North Shore, and west/south side of Van City proper. The NDP would only hold a NW BC coast seat, Van City east, southern Burnaby, New Westminster and north Surrey areas. And Van Isle would be NDP/Green.

I can also clearly see the Cons sweeping AB, SK, MB, ON, and taking a chunk of seats in QC and the Atlantic provinces combined.

Again, do you really want that? 'Cause that is a reality check. Seriously.

I know many Liberal voters who can't stand Harper. But they have contempt for and essentially hate the NDP... so much so that they would vote Con as the "lesser of 2 evils" over the NDP. I kid you not.

PS. Forget about the "2nd choice stuff" from Ekos and other pollsters. Have seen that stuff election after election, but never pans out, for the most part. What actually happens at the ballot box at the riding level typically contravenes this "2nd choice" stuff. Caveat emptor.

[Nouvellecosse]

You keep asking if I really "want" all these scenarios without me finding any of them (except perhaps BC) plausible. There can't be that huge of a mass of people who have "contempt" for the NDP considering their level of popular support.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

You're right in that I loathe Stephen Harper and the current CPC probably as much as MIGS wants to bone them. I'll agree with that. However, I consider myself centre left with no political party as my only option.

I despise Harper more than the average politician I don't agree with because a) He's changing the direction of the country to one that's much more American b) I voted for him once in 2006 on his platform of cleaning up Parliament and making it more transparent *ha! c) He's absolutely despicable as a person. He's a cold, heartless dictator who is all ideology all the time. d) He is eroding the power of citizens and replacing it with corporate interests

I could go on and on but those are probably the top reasons why I hate him so much. I'd still like to think that my arguments from time to time hold a little more water than MIGS' mindless cheerleading though (memes aside).

Hey O-Tac! I like you! You're definitely more savant in your posts than Migs.

But you do appear to have a bee in your bonnet these days...

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

You keep asking if I really "want" all these scenarios without me finding any of them (except perhaps BC) plausible. There can't be that huge of a mass of people who have "contempt" for the NDP considering their level of popular support.

Polls are fun. But the only numbers that matter are at the ballot box on e-day. That's where one determines popular vote share by province. Aside from Quebec in the 2011 "wave", which province has strong NDP popular support?

Just look at 2011 when the Liberal vote collapsed, province by province, and one notices that the Cons were the overall main beneficiary in terms of popular vote share increase over 2008.

[Nouvellecosse]

If the NDP vote were to completely collapse in Quebec (so far all we've seen is some waning) the bloc would almost certainly be the main beneficiary. The federal Liberal brand seems to be as toxic there as you describe the NDP as being out west.

[artvandelay]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

I don't think he was ever formally held in contempt of Parliament. He was an 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 but didn't go so far as Harper.

You do realize that the contempt of parliament charge was levied against the government by a committee comprised largely of opposition members and not a court or independent third party, no?

It was an entirely partisan citation.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by JHikka

It's always amusing when the NDP/Liberals are doing well in the polls the media will discuss how they're doing well...but as soon as the Conservatives start leading in polls the media begins questioning the usefulness and reliability of polls. Power & Politics had an extended segment on how trustworthy polls can be....we weren't having these discussions a month ago.

In this case the media reflects the mood of the majority of Canadians. The opposition parties are always considered the underdogs, especially after a government with mostly weak support for ten years, which gains most of its support from uneducated voters, and which is not very media friendly.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Of all of the elections that the tories could lose against a divided left, this was it, this is the one.

But the divided left will fail utterly in this election.

Harper is at the absolute bottom of his popularity, The tories will gain more when he's gone and the Tories WILL be Canada's natural governing party.

It's math.

[ssiguy]

Mulcair has no one to blame but himself.

He has let a lot of people down as he was excellent as the Leader of the Opposition.

His fatal mistake was trying to siphon off Conservative voters by his balanced books approach. He tried to move slightly right to appeal to the masses so as to make him look "less scary".

The problem in trying to appeal to everyone is that you end up impressing no one. It left a gapping hole in the left which Trudeau very smartly took advantage of.

Mulcair refused to listen to history and it has been his downfall. The NDP in BC and Ontario tried this in their last elections and it ended up biting him in the 🞵🞵🞵. Conversely the NDP did not do this in Alberta and held firm to their principles and convictions and it got them a solid majority government.

People rightly question your commitment to your principles if you are ready to discard them so quickly during a campaign. People sit back and think if he can so easily change his plans in an election then he certainly won't have a problem doing it if he forms a government.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Migs

You're kidding right? The American economy is in shambles, debt is up to $19 trillion with a T, poverty has skyrocketed, US foreign policy is a comedy show, & race relations are worse than they've been in a generation. Obama has been terrible.

I will respectfully disagree with you.

[Acajack]

Just saw an ad saying that Thomas Mulcair will be on Tout le monde en parle this Sunday.

I thought this was interesting as this show played a big role in the 2011 Orange Wave in Quebec as he was very effective in his appearances there starting once he became NDP leader and just before the 2011 elections. His image of Le Bon Jack comes in large part from there.

It's also interesting for its timing. If I recall correctly Layton appeared on the show just before the Easter long weekend in 2011, which came a few weeks before the election. It's kind of part of Quebec political lore that millions of Quebecers bounced the crazy idea of voting for Layton off each other during family gatherings that weekend, and that the Orange Wave happened because so many people realized they were not the only ones that were attracted to the NDP.

So now we have another long weekend coming up before an election. Thanksgiving isn't even close to being as a big a deal in Quebec as Easter (and not as big a deal as Anglo-Canada), but many families will gather just the same. I am sure the Mulcair team want to make sure he is top of mind in a positive way when people talk politics around the dinner table 10 days from now.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by lio45

By what metric? Unemployment rate? GDP?

I think you're the one who's kidding here... or else you haven't left your cave lately.

No, you see - the Canadian economy is AMAZING. Because, you know, Harper. But the US economy… ugh.. that leftist Barrack HUSSEIN Obama just ruined everything.

I mean, it's not like the two economies have anything to do with each other, right??

[flar]

Never thought of that. Right across the country there will be some interesting discussions around the dinner table this Thanksgiving.