Canada Election 2015

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by mattpa

I can say this the Polish community in Winnipeg has no problem with them taking citizenship away but, I am pissed that im classified as a second class citizen since i am eligible for dual citizenship.

You aren't a second class citizen, and I imagine the only scenario where you could possibly lose your Canadian citizenship would be for an act of terrorism (or perhaps mass murder). It would take a damned sight more than just a traffic ticket, that's for sure.......

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Dmajackson

I've noticed in the last couple of months an increase in the number of 'Stop Harper' signs up around Halifax. As for election support signs NDP is in the lead with Liberal close behind and about 10% of signs are Conservative and so far 1 Green sign. With the Conservatives running at 15% support a view like this is normal;

Conservatives are polling at around 7% in the Halifax riding, and are behind even in rural ridings like Central Nova. Unless something changes, it's looking like the Conservatives will get zero seats in NS, PEI, and NF. One interesting aspect of this is that in an election like this shift makes a big difference, even if we're only talking about smaller provinces.

Another interesting thing in the polls is that Green support is relatively high in rural NS, around 10% in a couple of ridings, and higher than in Halifax. I am not sure why that is.

I mostly look at this data: http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Anyway, I thought Harper looked a little uncharacteristically unsure of himself. Of course the debate was on foreign relations including TPTA, the environment, and US relations all of which are no-win scenarios for Harper. He couldn't care less about the environment, the Trans-Pacific will hurt him in Quebec and Ontario, and our relationship with Obama has been very poor. It's commonly known that the two men hate each other as much as Chretien and Bush #2 did.

In foreign affairs I don't think he expected to win any hearts over to the cause and although he looked unsure of himself, he didn't make any major blunders and came out relatively unscathed.

I agree with most of your comments. I certainly felt that Harper didn't seem as confident as he normally does.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You aren't a second class citizen, and I imagine the only scenario where you could possibly lose your Canadian citizenship would be for an act of terrorism (or perhaps mass murder). It would take a damned sight more than just a traffic ticket, that's for sure.......

One problem with this is that "terrorism" isn't a real crime with a coherent legal definition. Governments love vague laws because they can be used against anybody they don't like.

I keep reading about how we need to make sure people don't throw acid in each other's faces or fly planes into buildings. These things all carried stiff penalties long before anti-terrorism rhetoric became popular.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I agree with most of your comments. I certainly felt that Harper didn't seem as confident as he normally does.

I thought he was more arrogant than ever. His sneering every time Trudeau or Mulcair spoke was quite annoying.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by someone123

Conservatives are polling at around 7% in the Halifax riding, and are behind even in rural ridings like Central Nova. Unless something changes, it's looking like the Conservatives will get zero seats in NS, PEI, and NF.

One interesting thing in the polls is that Green support is relatively high in rural NS, around 10% in a couple of ridings, and higher than in Halifax. I am not sure why that is.

I mostly look at this data: http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

Yes the Conservative are in big trouble in Atlantic Canada. I guess their only safe seats in the region are a few in New Brunswick?

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by someone123

One problem with this is that "terrorism" isn't a real crime with a coherent legal definition. Governments love vague laws because they can be used against anybody they don't like.

I keep reading about how we need to make sure people don't throw acid in each other's faces or fly planes into buildings. These things all carried stiff penalties long before anti-terrorism rhetoric became popular.

Excellent point!

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by someone123

One problem with this is that "terrorism" isn't a real crime with a coherent legal definition. Governments love vague laws because they can be used against anybody they don't like.

I keep reading about how we need to make sure people don't throw acid in each other's faces or fly planes into buildings. These things all carried stiff penalties long before anti-terrorism rhetoric became popular.

Exactly! Things like opposing a pipeline or protesting could be considered terrorism under Bill C-51.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

I thought he was more arrogant than ever. His sneering every time Trudeau or Mulcair spoke was quite annoying.

I noticed that as well and it makes me dislike him even more.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Yes the Conservative are in big trouble in Atlantic Canada. I guess their only safe seats in the region are a few in New Brunswick?

Things can change of course but they're only projected to win 3 seats in NB and one of those is marginal (Liberals and Conservatives within 1% in Tobique-Mactaquac). Fundy Royal and New Brunswick Southwest are the only safe seats in the entire region.

308 is only predicting 13/110 seats east of Ontario for the Conservatives.

[JHikka]

Conservatives being in "big" trouble in Atlantic Canada means losing five seats in NS/PEI and perhaps two more in NB. They may make up those lost seats in Quebec alone, let alone the 30 added seats for this election.

To put this into perspective the Atlantic Provinces combine for 32 seats. Montreal & environs are 22. Ottawa & area is 11. Calgary 10. Edmonton 11. Hell, Brampton/Mississauga/Oakville combine for 13, more than PEI/NL combined and more than either NB or NS have on their own.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Conservatives being in "big" trouble in Atlantic Canada means losing five seats in NS/PEI and perhaps two more in NB. They may make up those lost seats in Quebec alone, let alone the 30 added seats for this election.

Doubtful they'll get much in Quebec. Even Calgary probably won't go full Conservative with a couple potential Liberal seats in the mix and Edmonton is going NDP. BC to me is the wild card though.

[Dmajackson]

Originally Posted by someone123

Conservatives are polling at around 7% in the Halifax riding, and are behind even in rural ridings like Central Nova. Unless something changes, it's looking like the Conservatives will get zero seats in NS, PEI, and NF. One interesting aspect of this is that in an election like this shift makes a big difference, even if we're only talking about smaller provinces.

Another interesting thing in the polls is that Green support is relatively high in rural NS, around 10% in a couple of ridings, and higher than in Halifax. I am not sure why that is.

I mostly look at this data: http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

Good link.

According to their numbers "Halifax" has 7.6% CPC and 7.8% GPC support so here at least the conservatives may not even break the top three. The certainties seem to put Nova Scotia as pretty much set in stone as 8 LPC and 3 NDP with the lowest certainty at 61% (and that one is between NDP and LPC).

New Brunswick could be interesting though there are two ridings with <1% difference between LPC and CPC.

Fredericton has 13% GPC support which is the highest for the region. Even with this taking some of the left votes the LPC still have a clear win.

Only four ridings in the Maritimes have a chance of going blue and two of those have <1% lead so there is no question the A.B.C. is strong here.

P.S. I looked through the map and it appears there are a few ridings in Atlantic Canada, Toronto, and B.C. with <10% CPC support but none are as low as Halifax's 7.6% CPC support!

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Dmajackson

Good link.

According to their numbers "Halifax" has 7.6% CPC and 7.8% GPC support so here at least the conservatives may not even break the top three. The certainties seem to put Nova Scotia as pretty much set in stone as 8 LPC and 3 NDP with the lowest certainty at 61% (and that one is between NDP and LPC).

New Brunswick could be interesting though there are two ridings with <1% difference between LPC and CPC.

Fredericton has 13% GPC support which is the highest for the region. Even with this taking some of the left votes the LPC still have a clear win.

Only four ridings in the Maritimes have a chance of going blue and two of those have <1% lead so there is no question the A.B.C. is strong here.

P.S. I looked through the map and it appears there are a few ridings in Atlantic Canada, Toronto, and B.C. with <10% CPC support but none are as low as Halifax's 7.6% CPC support!

308's aggregates change daily as polls are released. What you see today will be different tomorrow. In the past week Fredericton's Greens % has gone from 15%, to 6%, back to 14%. They're useful for a general idea but not entirely a surefire prediction of what will happen on a riding-to-riding basis.

[geotag277]

If Trudeau gets the youth vote by being a rude idiot during the debates and he ends up with the most seats, we'll have the government we deserve.

[ozonemania]

Originally Posted by geotag277

If Trudeau gets the youth vote by being a rude idiot during the debates and he ends up with the most seats, we'll have the government we deserve.

The youth don't vote. Harper is assured victory.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by lio45

BTW, in Quebec you'll find many who are anti-niqab and pro-refugee.

Harper's combined position on both of these would mostly only be ideal for the people who are anti-niqab "for the wrong reasons" as Acajack put it.

It seems those against the niqab "for the right reasons" are all over the place as well, and use the following justifications sometimes interchangeably:

- maintaining the cultural purity of Canada, that the niqab is a threat to our culture and banning it will give Canadians warm fuzzies

- maintaining laws that are the same for Canadians in an "equals is the same" type of system, ie. you are required to provide identification through the face so this piece of clothing needs to be outlawed

- marginalizing a symbol of oppression ie. "I can't possibly understand how progressives can endorse this symbol, we should ban it's use"

I will say the case for being against it "for the right reasons" would be a whole lot more convincing if the above ideas were not expressed interchangeably. Of course there is nothing wrong with holding "all of the above" as a stance if that is what you truly believe, but it somewhat reminds me of a "anti abortion anti gay marriage pro — rights" caricature of a position, where you can shout "freedom" (or in this case, perhaps more appropriately "culture") as loud as you can to disguise what you are really trying to do, which is leveraging a system of justice and government to impose your will in a populist fashion that hits populist demographics. This is what we have the supreme court of Canada for. And boo hoo if they make unpopular decisions from time to time.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by geotag277

It seems those against the niqab "for the right reasons" are all over the place as well, and use the following justifications sometimes interchangeably:

- maintaining the cultural purity of Canada, that the niqab is a threat to our culture and banning it will give Canadians warm fuzzies

- maintaining laws that are the same for Canadians in an "equals is the same" type of system, ie. you are required to provide identification through the face so this piece of clothing needs to be outlawed

- marginalizing a symbol of oppression ie. "I can't possibly understand how progressives can endorse this symbol, we should ban it's use"

I will say the case for being against it "for the right reasons" would be a whole lot more convincing if the above ideas were not expressed interchangeably. Of course there is nothing wrong with holding "all of the above" as a stance if that is what you truly believe, but it somewhat reminds me of a "anti abortion anti gay marriage pro — rights" caricature of a position, where you can shout "freedom" (or in this case, perhaps more appropriately "culture") as loud as you can to disguise what you are really trying to do, which is leveraging a system of justice and government to impose your will in a populist fashion that hits populist demographics. This is what we have the supreme court of Canada for. And boo hoo if they make unpopular decisions from time to time.

If you are going to demonize all people who are against the niqab with a broad brush like this, then maybe I will stop holding back regarding the people who are FOR the niqab for the ''wrong reasons''.

You know who they are, right? They're the people who deep down don't really give a — about equality for women (especially muslim women), and who are perfectly willing to throw them under the bus in order that they personally can win some kind of hypothetical (or is hypocritical?) 21st century World Gold Medal for Tolerance and Openness to Diversity that they can then use as circle jerk fodder while looking down on other societies.

There you go. The knife can cut both ways, you know.

[Kitchissippi]

Blue Rodeo weighs in with a protest song

• Video Link

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Dmajackson

P.S. I looked through the map and it appears there are a few ridings in Atlantic Canada, Toronto, and B.C. with <10% CPC support but none are as low as Halifax's 7.6% CPC support!

I guess there's no gratitude in greater Haligon for the multi billion dollar shipbuilding contract. I guess Irving might as well move the shipyard back to New Brunswick where it belongs........