Canada Election 2015

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Migs

When & where did I say that Harper deficits were a good thing? Quit deflecting.

I understand why the deficits had to happen during the global financial crisis but the time is now to start paying down the debt. And this "recession" that you mentioned is already over, barely even worth a mention. When the economy is good like it is now, intentionally going into deficit is ridiculous.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2204087/three-words-to-sum-up-canadas-economy-best-recession-ever/

Not sure what rock you've been living under but the recession is still killing us here. Don't even try to blame the price of oil on the AB NDP either because we both know that's ridiculous.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

In the case of your direct Labrador neighbor, it's more like you're chained to the leftist, secular kind of society one finds in Western Europe.

(Not saying it's a good thing, just sayin')

I suspect that the number of people who are opposed to the niqab for the oath "for the wrong reasons" (I think you know what I mean here) is about the same in Quebec as in the rest of the country.


What pushes Quebec higher is the number of people who are opposed for reasons of secularism, and also (maybe especially?) the province's strong feminist streak.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I really don't care that much whether it's banned at citizenship ceremonies or not. I just can't believe enough people are fooled into thinking its a vote-worthy issue. It's not.

In Quebec though, it kinda is... and here's why.

We "adopted" the NDP as "our" federal party. That was kind of a crush, i.e. not that logical nor deeply thought of. The party had some positions that were really going against what Quebec normally prefers; for example, NDP has a centralizating style of federal govt, Quebec normally hates that, but seemed not to notice in this case... it gave the NDP a pass -- love makes one blind, it seems.

But it was expected (in the aftermath of the 2011 election) that Quebec would wake up and wonder what they're doing in that strange bed, and what they were thinking at the time...

That didn't (yet) happen. I would say mostly thanks to Mulcair, a well-known and well-liked figure here... The NDP continued to "get a pass", against most expectations.

Now though, this might be the straw that's breaking the camel's back, finally driving home, at last, the point to Quebec that this party that they once fell in irrational love with... is in fact not their party at all, it's clashing shamelessly with some of their most core and basic values.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

In Quebec though, it kinda is... and here's why.

We "adopted" the NDP as "our" federal party. That was kind of a crush, i.e. not that logical nor deeply thought of. The party had some positions that were really going against what Quebec normally prefers; for example, NDP has a centralizating style of federal govt, Quebec normally hates that, but seemed not to notice in this case... it gave the NDP a pass -- love makes one blind, it seems.

But it was expected (in the aftermath of the 2011 election) that Quebec would wake up and wonder what they're doing in that strange bed, and what they were thinking at the time...

That didn't (yet) happen. I would say mostly thanks to Mulcair, a well-known and well-liked figure here... The NDP continued to "get a pass", against most expectations.

Now though, this might be the straw that's breaking the camel's back, finally driving home, at last, the point to Quebec that this party that they once fell in irrational love with... is in fact not their party at all, it's clashing shamelessly with some of their most core and basic values.

Very well put. Indeed the straw, or in this case the niqab which choked the camel to death.......

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I suspect that the number of people who are opposed to the niqab for the oath "for the wrong reasons" (I think you know what I mean here) is about the same in Quebec as in the rest of the country.


What pushes Quebec higher is the number of people who are opposed for reasons of secularism, and also (maybe especially?) the province's strong feminist streak.

I totally agree... there are a bunch of parallel reasons to object to the niqab for the oath that aren't exactly fully aligned.

In my case, it's not feminism at all, but rather the notion that religion shouldn't work as a trump card against rules that are otherwise supposed to be strict.

For example, that May 2013 case in Montreal ("No overnight parking, except for Jews") would be the absolute worst example of this stuff gone wrong.

Religion's totally fine -- as long as you can manage to do it within our legal framework.

I'd be absolutely okay with allowing someone to take the oath faceless, as long as we made it okay to take the oath faceless, i.e. someone can take the oath via the internet, sending an email to say "yeah yeah, I'm swearing I'll be a good, loyal Canadian".

I'd be fine with that... if that's the standard, then that's the standard.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by lio45

Generally speaking, the Liberals in Quebec would win about the same number of ridings with ~20% province-wide than they do with ~25% province-wide.

Outside Montreal, the Tories have a higher chance than them to grab ridings thanks to four-way races, and the Bloc has a much higher chance than anyone else.

I'm starting to think the Conservatives might actually make *gains* in parts of Quebec thanks to the niqab and refugee issues...those would offset any losses in Atlantic Canada.

[SignalHillHiker]

Hopefully if he wins it'll be with a minority so he can be shut down at the throne speech.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I'm still think it will be a Liberal minority.

If the NDP continue their slow decline it will be the Liberals who will the main beneficiaries except in Quebec where the BLOC will win some seats. The further the NDP falls the better for the Liberals. Not only will those NDP votes go Liberal {except again in Quebec where the beneficiaries will be more evenly split} but also as the end nears you will see those NDP supporters switch to the Liberals.

For many, if not most, supporters of the Liberals and NDP are less interested in their party winning than getting rid of Harper. Most Liberals would be fine with an NDP government and vice-versa but will need therapy if Harper gets back in and they will do anything to make sure that doesn't happen.

Harper is a very polarizing politician and I am 51 and have voted in every election without exception and I have NEVER seen an ABC vote even remotely close as we have now. Even with corrupt and sleazy Mulroney was the ABC vote that strong as the differences between Mulroney and the Liberals really weren't that great as Mulroney was socially very much a Red Tory.

Agreed.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Hopefully if he wins it'll be with a minority so he can be shut down at the throne speech.

This is second best case scenario. Either way Harper's days look numbered.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

I totally agree... there are a bunch of parallel reasons to object to the niqab for the oath that aren't exactly fully aligned.

In my case, it's not feminism at all, but rather the notion that religion shouldn't work as a trump card against rules that are otherwise supposed to be strict.

For example, that May 2013 case in Montreal ("No overnight parking, except for Jews") would be the absolute worst example of this stuff gone wrong.

Religion's totally fine -- as long as you can manage to do it within our legal framework.

I'd be absolutely okay with allowing someone to take the oath faceless, as long as we made it okay to take the oath faceless, i.e. someone can take the oath via the internet, sending an email to say "yeah yeah, I'm swearing I'll be a good, loyal Canadian".

I'd be fine with that... if that's the standard, then that's the standard.

It's primarily (but not exclusively) a women's rights issue for me.

[Migs]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Not sure what rock you've been living under but the recession is still killing us here. Don't even try to blame the price of oil on the AB NDP either because we both know that's ridiculous.

Canada is much bigger than the confines of your picket fence. The economy in Canada is going quite well, even with the low price of oil. As much as you seem to hate it, that technical recession blip is already over.

[SignalHillHiker]

To me it's just a petty distraction. It doesn't matter how eloquent or secular or feminist the position, it's a distraction. It's arguing over which fork to use while the ship sinks. Harper is a disaster. That's the important issue. Anyone willing to give him four more years of destroying the federation just to haul a veil off the faces of, what, four or five women... they can frig off.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

To me it's just a petty distraction. It doesn't matter how eloquent or secular or feminist the position, it's a distraction. It's arguing over which fork to use while the ship sinks. Harper is a disaster. That's the important issue. Anyone willing to give him four more years of destroying the federation just to haul a veil off the faces of, what, four or five women... they can frig off.

I may be proven wrong, but my guess is that the number voters in Quebec at least that will go for the Conservatives over this won't be enough to win them many more seats in Quebec.

Between the people who will transfer their votes to the Bloc and the people who will like me hold their noses and vote for the NDP or Liberals anyway, I doubt there will be much of a pro-Tory seat impact here.

[SteelTown]

I think even Conservative's internal polls suggest the maximum number of seats the Conservatives could get in Quebec is 10.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's primarily (but not exclusively) a women's rights issue for me.

From the women's rights point of view, I personally really dislike what the niqab stands for, BUT I'm too libertarian to accept that my dislike should cause any further restriction on it except for the ones that have already been applying to masked individuals (regardless of religion) for legal and identification reasons forever.

My personal POV is, things are fine as is. Wanna be masked when it's possible, be my guest. (At home, on the streets, while shopping, while at work _if_ your employer's okay with it, etc.)

[Migs]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

This is second best case scenario. Either way Harper's days look numbered.

How many times have we heard that now? Do you honestly think Canadians would be receptive of a coalition govt &/or another election? The NDP & Libs are miles apart on many important issues.

The foreign affairs debate tonight should be a good night for Harper as he is a man among boys in that felt. Poll #s right now are very similar to this time in 2011. Harper majority is a very good possibility, even some in CBC admitted so last night.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I may be proven wrong, but my guess is that the number voters in Quebec at least that will go for the Conservatives over this won't be enough to win them many more seats in Quebec.

Between the people who will transfer their votes to the Bloc and the people who will like me hold their noses and vote for the NDP or Liberals anyway, I doubt there will be much of a pro-Tory seat impact here.

Fingers crossed that you're right. I'd be pleased.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

I'm starting to think the Conservatives might actually make *gains* in parts of Quebec thanks to the niqab and refugee issues...those would offset any losses in Atlantic Canada.

There might be some swing ridings where the four-way race could produce a FPTP Tory win in Chaudière-Appalaches and on the north shore around Quebec City, but I think that's it.

I'd have to do a more thorough analysis on a per-riding basis for that... (or you could too )

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Between the people who will transfer their votes to the Bloc and the people who will like me hold their noses and vote for the NDP or Liberals anyway, I doubt there will be much of a pro-Tory seat impact here.

So, out of curiosity, are you going to be voting red, or orange?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Fingers crossed that you're right. I'd be pleased.

I'm more worried about the rest of the country where there isn't a natural, viable alternative "home" to the Conservatives for the anti-niqab crowd to park their votes.