Canada Election 2015

[Migs]

This is what Trudeau said when asked why Harper deficits were bad & his deficits are good.

Trudeau- "Deficits are a way of measuring the kind of growth & the kind of success that a government is actually able to create"

What da Fug??

[ozonemania]

Originally Posted by Migs

This is what Trudeau said when asked why Harper deficits were bad & his deficits are good.

Trudeau- "Deficits are a way of measuring the kind of growth & the kind of success that a government is actually able to create"

What da Fug??

He seems to me to be stating his position on how he would use deficits -- to leverage spending to create economic growth.

Contrast that with Conservatives using deficits to bestow tax breaks on corporations or other benefits like income splitting.

[Migs]

The gift that keeps on giving.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/in...onditional-upon-good-behaviour-1.2583849

[Migs]

Originally Posted by ozonemania

He seems to me to be stating his position on how he would use deficits -- to leverage spending to create economic growth.

Contrast that with Conservatives using deficits to bestow tax breaks on corporations or other benefits like income splitting.

If that were true then Greece would be an economic powerhouse.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Migs

This is what Trudeau said when asked why Harper deficits were bad & his deficits are good.

Trudeau- "Deficits are a way of measuring the kind of growth & the kind of success that a government is actually able to create"

What da Fug??

Harper is incredibly well versed in deficits............he's added $145 billion to ours.

If you feel deficits are bad then fine but for those who demand fiscal austerity why the hell would you support Harper? He has had 8 straight budget deficits and the only reason the 2 he brought in were balanced were due to the good shape the Liberals left the finances in.

Don't misunderstand me, I think it was good he ran some deficits in the recession as the last thing you need in a recession is government cutbacks to further hinder growth. The hypocracy is Harper saying we don't need government to run a deficit now even though we have reinterred a recession.

Why was deficit spending during a recession OK for Harper but not OK now for Trudeau?

BTW before you saw "technical" recession , there is ONLY 1 definition of a recession...................2 back to back declines in the GDP and we are in one.

[Migs]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Harper is incredibly well versed in deficits............he's added $145 billion to ours.

If you feel deficits are bad then fine but for those who demand fiscal austerity why the hell would you support Harper? He has had 8 straight budget deficits and the only reason the 2 he brought in were balanced were due to the good shape the Liberals left the finances in.

Don't misunderstand me, I think it was good he ran some deficits in the recession as the last thing you need in a recession is government cutbacks to further hinder growth. The hypocracy is Harper saying we don't need government to run a deficit now even though we have reinterred a recession.

Why was deficit spending during a recession OK for Harper but not OK now for Trudeau?

BTW before you saw "technical" recession , there is ONLY 1 definition of a recession...................2 back to back declines in the GDP and we are in one.

When & where did I say that Harper deficits were a good thing? Quit deflecting.

I understand why the deficits had to happen during the global financial crisis but the time is now to start paying down the debt. And this "recession" that you mentioned is already over, barely even worth a mention. When the economy is good like it is now, intentionally going into deficit is ridiculous.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2204087/three-words-to-sum-up-canadas-economy-best-recession-ever/

[travis3000]

New poll from Abacus finds NDP plunging in Quebec, down to 30% support now only 6 points ahead of the Liberals who are up 2 points to 24%. The Conservatives have surged 11 points to 21%, who are pretty much tied with the Bloq who are at 20%.

Nationally, the Conservatives now hold a 3 point lead at 32% over the Liberals at 29%. The NDP are in third place at 27%. With these type of results, the Conservatives would win government with around 140 to 150 seats, including 10 seats in Quebec!

http://abacusdata.ca/ndp-facing-headwinds-as-support-drops-in-quebec/


This corresponds with the daily Nanos tracking which has vaulted the Conservatives back into #1 with 33% support across Canada, the Liberals in second with 31.6 and the NDP with 26.9%%.

In Ontario, the Libs and Cons are tied with 38% each. The NDP has plunged to 19% in the province, not good news at all.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/...tight-national-race-nanos-poll-1.2583957

[Stingray2004]

Yep. Quebec sure has one helluva fickle electorate!!!

Abacus Quebec:



Abacus Canada:



http://abacusdata.ca/ndp-facing-headwinds-as-support-drops-in-quebec/

And of course... Nanos:



http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20150927%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

[SignalHillHiker]

FFS. All because of niqabs? I feel like I'm chained to Mississippi.

Stop with the Cons already, Canada. Stahp.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I stand corrected.

In my difference {which is wrong} I will say that I view "Greater" Montreal is in the context of the Island just as metro Toronto doesn't include Miss/Bramp/Osh/Oak/Mark/Vau etc. When I said the Bloc has never been popular on the Island.

Anyway, I totally appreciate you pointing out my mistake and hope you will do it again if you see me presenting false information and I will certainly be more careful in my use of Greater Montreal.

A good-sized chunk of the island itself also was Bloc territory for several elections, from the eastern part of downtown going all the way to the east with only maybe two ridings in the east end going consistently Liberal.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

FFS. All because of niqabs? I feel like I'm chained to Mississippi.

You never know what minor issue might gain traction with the voters during an election campaign. This year it's the niqab. This must be Mulcair's worst nightmare.

Unless things change, a lot of Quebec seats that were formerly thought to be safe NDP seats will be in play. A few might go Tory, but the big question is whether the remainder of the NDP losses go BQ or Liberal.

I think Mulcair's prime ministerial dreams are rapidly fading. If the Tories can capitalize on anti-niqab sentiment and anti-migrant feelings in rural Canada, I think it will be a strong Tory minority government with a Liberal official opposition; perhaps 145 seats for the Tories, 115 seats for the Liberals, 75 for the NDP with a few bloquistes thrown in for variety and Elizabeth May.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Unless things change, a lot of Quebec seats that were formerly thought to be safe NDP seats will be in play. A few might go Tory, but the big question is whether the remainder of the NDP losses go BQ or Liberal.

Let's not forget the way FPTP works.

30%/24%/21%/20% might very well still result in a lot of orange, and nearly no pale blue, even though that's quite unfair for 30% vs 20% popular support -- you'd normally expect the NDP to merely have 1.5 times the number of Bloc MPs, not infinity more times...

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think Mulcair's prime ministerial dreams are rapidly fading. If the Tories can capitalize on anti-niqab sentiment and anti-migrant feelings in rural Canada, I think it will be a strong Tory minority government with a Liberal official opposition; perhaps 145 seats for the Tories, 115 seats for the Liberals, 75 for the NDP with a few bloquistes thrown in for variety and Elizabeth May.

Completely agree with that analysis.

I'd add though that the Bloc is starting to be on the edge of the "rake in the MPs" zone, so if the NDP loses a few more percentage points to the Bloc -- that's where those voters were from in the first place, in the '08/'06/'04/etc. elections -- then we might see a big shift of ridings going from orange to pale blue.

That wouldn't be "only a handful thrown in for variety". Though of course that could happen too, at the very edge of the "zone".

20% = zero MPs.
~22% = a handful
~30% = a ton
~35% = nearly sweeping the province

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

Let's not forget the way FPTP works.

30%/24%/21%/20% might very well still result in a lot of orange, and nearly no pale blue, even though that's quite unfair for 30% vs 20% popular support -- you'd normally expect the NDP to merely have 1.5 times the number of Bloc MPs, not infinity more times...

Oh I know that, it's just that Mulcair has had negative momentum now for the last 2-3 weeks, and that very well may continue right through to election day.

The NDP might have 30% support in Quebec today, but maybe it's be 27% on election day. Their margin over the other parties could be pretty thin, and that would allow the Tories to get maybe 10 seats, perhaps 25-30 seats for the Liberals and maybe 3-5 seats for the Bloc.

The NDP would still win the province, but without Fortress Quebec, the party will look quite ordinary in the rest of Canada.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

Completely agree with that analysis.

I'd add though that the Bloc is starting to be on the edge of the "rake in the MPs" zone, so if the NDP loses a few more percentage points to the Bloc -- that's where those voters were from in the first place, in the '08/'06/'04/etc. elections -- then we might see a big shift of ridings going from orange to pale blue.

That wouldn't be "only a handful thrown in for variety". Though of course that could happen too, at the very edge of the "zone".

20% = zero MPs.
~22% = a handful
~30% = a ton
~35% = nearly sweeping the province

It's also within the realm of possibility that the Bloc could have more seats that the Liberals (in Quebec), with slightly less of the popular vote.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You never know what minor issue might gain traction with the voters during an election campaign. This year it's the niqab. This must be Mulcair's worst nightmare.

91% of Quebeckers are against stuff like allowing the Oath to be taken while masked, and if you weight that for their FPTP voting power, it's actually higher than that. Mulcair knew that. He took the risk. Deal with it.

I've been saying for a long time that for the NDP, it's a tricky situation... most of their incumbents are from Quebec, yet what they need to gain is outside it.

They risk losing their bird in the hand, trying to get the two birds in the bush they'd also want. But if they don't take that —, they're never going to get anywhere...

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Oh I know that, it's just that Mulcair has had negative momentum now for the last 2-3 weeks, and that very well may continue right through to election day.

The NDP might have 30% support in Quebec today, but maybe it's be 27% on election day. Their margin over the other parties could be pretty thin, and that would allow the Tories to get maybe 10 seats, perhaps 25-30 seats for the Liberals and maybe 3-5 seats for the Bloc.

The NDP would still win the province, but without Fortress Quebec, the party will look quite ordinary in the rest of Canada.

Generally speaking, the Liberals in Quebec would win about the same number of ridings with ~20% province-wide than they do with ~25% province-wide.

Outside Montreal, the Tories have a higher chance than them to grab ridings thanks to four-way races, and the Bloc has a much higher chance than anyone else.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's also within the realm of possibility that the Bloc could have more seats that the Liberals (in Quebec), with slightly less of the popular vote.

Absolutely.

Just like when PQ and PLQ are roughly tied in popular support, it's the PQ who gets to form govt... better spread of popular support, less over-concentration.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

FFS. All because of niqabs? I feel like I'm chained to Mississippi.

In the case of your direct Labrador neighbor, it's more like you're chained to the leftist, secular kind of society one finds in Western Europe.

(Not saying it's a good thing, just sayin')

[SignalHillHiker]

Yeah. And on this niqab issue its secular and European in the worst ways, it looks like. I'm sure we are too but it's just not an issue here. I really don't care that much whether it's banned at citizenship ceremonies or not. I just can't believe enough people are fooled into thinking its a vote-worthy issue. It's not. If the Cons win again on the mainland because of this, and are still shut out here, we're in for another painful few years on our end. We want better. We're voting for better. And I just want it over with already. Trudeau or Mulcair I really don't care any more. Just not Harper.