Canada Election 2015

[O-tacular]

Has Trudeau said where he stands on the TPP? This could be an issue hat would push me back to the NDP.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by travis3000

I think when the dust settles, Ontario will go blue as will BC allowing the Tories to win government . It's been my opinion for the last two years. And I still am going with it based on the campaign so far and the feeling of the electorate I'm picking up on. Just to clarify, I will not be voting for Harper.

Possible scenario. In that vein, had a very interesting chat with one of the major CA public pollsters about age demographics, turnouts thereto, and voting trends therein, which is quite apropos for this election as well.

To backtrack, back during the 1993 fed election, he found that the 18-24 age demographic voted just slightly less in terms of turnout compared to the 55+ age demographic. And with those national results skewed by ON in 1993, the 55+ age demographic trended LPC back then.

Now look at how the median Canadian age has jumped from 30 in 1982 to 40 by 2013 and it is still increasing with BC higher than the national average, for example. Bear this fact in mind.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-215-x/2012000/ct009-eng.htm

Now look at how Harper won in 2011 - with a strong voter turnout from the 55+ age demographic, which skewed Con. That same pollster is now seeing an exact same replay in his current findings with a congregation of the 55+ age demographic around the Cons again.

Elections Canada 2011 turnout by age demographic also corroborates same with seniors turning out at almost double the rate of the 18-24 age demographic.

http://www.elections.ca/res/rec/part/estim/41ge/images/img3_e.gif

BTW, it is unfortunate that Nanos does not provide voting intentions by age demographic.

In any event, it is well documented here in BC that the 55+ age demographic vote ALWAYS skews Con federally and BC Lib provincially.

In that regard, the relatively recent Metro Vancouver Translink referendum saw the 55+ age demographic account for 47.24% of all votes cast. Incredible actually.

https://rosedeer.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/screen-shot-2015-09-22-at-4-15-26-pm.png

So yes, on e-day, with the high turnout from the 55+ age demographic + their skewed Con vote your hypothesis is certainly plausible.

In closing, some further corroboration is from the article that I posted up-thread earlier today, which also confirmed that the Cons actual popular vote share was 4% higher than the final combined poll findings of mostly both IVR and opt-in online polling methodologies back in 2011.

[O-tacular]

I'm really hoping the ABC vote brings the youth out in droves. The internet is thankfully starting to help younger voters coalesce and feel less hopeless about the actual impact of their ballot. We saw this in the election of Obama and here in Calgary with mayor Nenshi. The youth vote outnumbers the seniors, we just need to start turning up at the polls.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Has Trudeau said where he stands on the TPP? This could be an issue hat would push me back to the NDP.

Everyone's for it, despite the political rhetoric you better believe all three of them will sign it.

[TorontoDrew]

Olivia Chow keeps making childish name calling updates against Justin on her Facebook page. I voted for Jack last time because he ran a clean race. Now on Friday I get an Olivia Chow envelope in my mailbox asking me to donate to her campaign. She's not even running in my riding. She has jus secured my Liberal vote.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

Olivia Chow keeps making childish name calling updates against Justin on her Facebook page. I voted for Jack last time because he ran a clean race. Now on Friday I get an Olivia Chow envelope in my mailbox asking me to donate to her campaign. She's not even running in my riding. She has jus secured my Liberal vote.

I longer live in Olivia's riding, but if I still did I would happily cast my vote for Adam Vaughan as liberal candidate. He could be annoying as a councillor but genuinely respected his constituents and I do have a lot of respect for him as a representative. I lost pretty much all respect I had for Olivia during the last mayoral election.

I'm actually glad I'm in Parkdale - High Park now because I feel like I can make the choice between Liberal and NDP. Been leaning Liberal for the last few weeks.

[travis3000]

Based on what I'm seeing right now, here's my guess on what will transpire on voting day.

Atlantic Canada= Libs (24), Cons (5), NDP (3)
Quebec= NDP (45), Libs (23), Cons (7), Bloq (3)
Ontario= Cons (72), Libs (35), NDP (14)
Man= Cons (8), Libs (5), NDP (1)
Sas= Cons (11), Libs (1), NDP (2)
Alberta= Cons (31), Libs (2), NDP (1)
BC= Cons (25), Libs (10), NDP (7)
Territories= Libs (1), NDP (1), Cons (1)

Conservative MINORITY (160 seats)
Liberal OFFICIAL OPPOSITION (101 seats)
NDP Party (74 seats)

[lio45]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The Liberals will be by far the biggest gainers with NDP decline as it will give them a stranglehold on Greater Montreal. The BLOC has never been popular there and god knows the Conservatives have absolutely no traction with progressive voters in the very progressive city of Montreal nor even little in the suburbs.

"The Bloc has never been popular in Greater Montreal?!?" The '04, '06 and '08 elections, the Mtl region looked like this (scroll down, see it at the bottom right).

I wonder why you guys feel the need to state things like they're facts when in truth you don't really know what you're talking about. At least ask before stating things... If I commented on BC I'd be guessing/asking, not stating.

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Based on what I'm seeing right now, here's my guess on what will transpire on voting day.

Atlantic Canada= Libs (24), Cons (5), NDP (3)
Quebec= NDP (45), Libs (23), Cons (7), Bloq (3)
Ontario= Cons (72), Libs (35), NDP (14)
Man= Cons (8), Libs (5), NDP (1)
Sas= Cons (11), Libs (1), NDP (2)
Alberta= Cons (31), Libs (2), NDP (1)
BC= Cons (25), Libs (10), NDP (7)
Territories= Libs (1), NDP (1), Cons (1)

Conservative MINORITY (160 seats)
Liberal OFFICIAL OPPOSITION (101 seats)
NDP Party (74 seats)

No way the cons get that many seat in BC and I doubt that many in Ontario.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Have said myself for 2 years (as well) that the BC popular vote share would fall on e-day as more of a pre-2008 election vote pattern:

Con: 37% - 40%
Liberal/NDP 25% each (with party having most momentum leading into e-day falling into higher 20% range and the other in the lower 20% range)
Green: 10%+

1. The Cons in BC have their base in the BC interior/Fraser Valley/southern and eastern Metro Van suburbs;

2. The Liberals have their base in Van City proper and surrounding inner suburbs;

3. The Greens have their base on southern half of Van Isle;

4. The NDP vote is spread out too thinly - leaving them, in all likelihood, with just ~6/42 BC seats on e-day based upon my BC riding-by-riding analysis.

I'm curious to know -- does your BC riding-by-riding analysis match TCTC's riding-by-riding analysis for your province?

I think TCTC is the best MPs projection source we have, but I'd like to see how they fare when "tested" against a political junkie's projections for his own area.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by lio45

"The Bloc has never been popular in Greater Montreal?!?" The '04, '06 and '08 elections, the Mtl region looked like this (scroll down, see it at the bottom right).

I wonder why you guys feel the need to state things like they're facts when in truth you don't really know what you're talking about. At least ask before stating things... If I commented on BC I'd be guessing/asking, not stating.

I stand corrected.

In my difference {which is wrong} I will say that I view "Greater" Montreal is in the context of the Island just as metro Toronto doesn't include Miss/Bramp/Osh/Oak/Mark/Vau etc. When I said the Bloc has never been popular on the Island.

Anyway, I totally appreciate you pointing out my mistake and hope you will do it again if you see me presenting false information and I will certainly be more careful in my use of Greater Montreal.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

No way the cons get that many seat in BC and I doubt that many in Ontario.

Completely agree, there is no way in hell that the Tories will do nearly as well as that in either Ontario of BC. The Liberal support is strong in Ontario and if I had to choose I think it would be the Liberals who have a better shot at 72 seats in Ontario than the Tories. Also the NDP support in BC is much stronger than that and most of the seats they are leading in are a sure thing.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Looking at the polling trends, I see the NDP collapsing before election day leading to a Liberal surge.

I think we are looking at this arrangement

135 seats Liberal
120 seats Conservative
75 seats NDP
3 seats green
5 seats bloc.

[jmt18325]

I think the Liberals will do even better than that.

[CCF]

Curious as to how accurate the polls have been in previous elections?

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Based on what I'm seeing right now, here's my guess on what will transpire on voting day.

Atlantic Canada= Libs (24), Cons (5), NDP (3)
Quebec= NDP (45), Libs (23), Cons (7), Bloq (3)
Ontario= Cons (72), Libs (35), NDP (14)
Man= Cons (8), Libs (5), NDP (1)
Sas= Cons (11), Libs (1), NDP (2)
Alberta= Cons (31), Libs (2), NDP (1)
BC= Cons (25), Libs (10), NDP (7)
Territories= Libs (1), NDP (1), Cons (1)

Conservative MINORITY (160 seats)
Liberal OFFICIAL OPPOSITION (101 seats)
NDP Party (74 seats)

Wow. Pessimistic much?

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

No way the cons get that many seat in BC and I doubt that many in Ontario.

Actually, his prediction is not as far-fetched as ya may think. On a `good night` on e-day, the Cons could actually win 25 - 30 seats here in BC. Seriously.

I will give an example and I see that ya are also from the Sunshine Coast. The newly redistributed seat of North Island-Powell River abuts the Sunshine Coast boundary. With transposed results the Cons would have won this marginal seat, back in 2008, with a 7% margin over the NDP.

With the Lib collapse in 2011, the Con margin decreased to 4%. Both the Liberals and Greens were only running marginal `paper candidates` here in both 2008 and 2011.

In this election, the Greens have a high profile candidate and are running a `cadillac`campaign in NI-PW. So are the Liberals. The Greens have a base of support in the Comox Valley on Van Isle but, for a plethora of reasons, cannot win this seat.

The Liberals also running a high quality candidate this time. I suggest that if the Greens grab 10% - 15% of the popular vote share and if the Liberals grab perhaps 10% of the popular vote share (highly likely in both cases) they will take 2011 NDP votes by a roughly 2 - 1 or 3 - 2 margin over the Cons. Then what happens? The Cons take the seat.

PS. All of the aggregated polling sites such as 308 put this seat into the NDP column. Another result of `garbage polling info` in - `garbage result out`as well as they have no idea what is actually happening on the ground..

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by lio45

I'm curious to know -- does your BC riding-by-riding analysis match TCTC's riding-by-riding analysis for your province?

I think TCTC is the best MPs projection source we have, but I'd like to see how they fare when "tested" against a political junkie's projections for his own area.

I know Bryan Breguet`s TCTC site very well. As a matter of fact, both myself and Alice Funk of Pundit`s Guide concurrently pointed out to Bryan the fallacy of putting the BC riding of Cloverdale-Langley City into the NDP column, for example.

That riding is so small `c` conservative and right-wing... it would be akin to putting the QC riding of Beauce into the NDP column.

I believe that 308 is better than TCTC but, even then, Grenier had Mulcair`s riding of Outremont in the Liberal column many months back. Ouch. Just ain`t gonna happen.

Back in 2006 and 2008, `Democratic Space` had an excellent CA riding by riding projection - even here in BC. But then again that was likely due to some excellent pollsters we had back then for the BC numbers - CATI Nanos, CATI Ipsos, and CATI Mustel from BC. Today Nanos is the only CATI pollster left but with a too small sample size. BTW, Democratic Space ceased pre-2011.

If BC`s Mustel was still conducting BC CATI polls with an 800 to 1,000 sample size and either TCTC or 308 ONLY plugged in those numbers... then you would have a pretty accurate idea where the ridings would fall right now. Plus additional òn the ground info`.

But we don`t have that luxury anymore. To wit, the final poll of Ekos (IVR) in 2011 showed the NDP leading here in BC. The final poll of Angus Reid (panel) in 2011 showed a Con - NDP tie. 308 and TCTC then plugged those numbers into their seat calculations.

Actual 2011 BC fed election result was a 13% Con majority popular vote share win over NDP (46% - 33%, with Lib collapse). That 13% margin makes one helluva big difference in terms of seats.

BTW, BC is a notoriously difficult place to poll... even Nik Nanos mentioned same a few elections back. That plus the inferior IVR and online panel polls these days plus the apparent `shy Tory` factor makes all the difference here in BC.

PS. Both Abacus and Ekos are reporting popular vote share shifts in QC today... results out tomorrow and day after.

PPS. On the Sunday before e-day Monday, I will provide my BC 42 seat break-down with reasons. Will or should have enough info by then to be within 2 - 3 seats of actual BC e-day results.

[ssiguy]

I'm still think it will be a Liberal minority.

If the NDP continue their slow decline it will be the Liberals who will the main beneficiaries except in Quebec where the BLOC will win some seats. The further the NDP falls the better for the Liberals. Not only will those NDP votes go Liberal {except again in Quebec where the beneficiaries will be more evenly split} but also as the end nears you will see those NDP supporters switch to the Liberals.

For many, if not most, supporters of the Liberals and NDP are less interested in their party winning than getting rid of Harper. Most Liberals would be fine with an NDP government and vice-versa but will need therapy if Harper gets back in and they will do anything to make sure that doesn't happen.

Harper is a very polarizing politician and I am 51 and have voted in every election without exception and I have NEVER seen an ABC vote even remotely close as we have now. Even with corrupt and sleazy Mulroney was the ABC vote that strong as the differences between Mulroney and the Liberals really weren't that great as Mulroney was socially very much a Red Tory.

[ozonemania]

I'm sure this has been brought up before, but I can't help but think on E-Day, the incumbency factor will have a stronger effect than in previous elections. I only say this because as long as there is a perception of a 3-way race nationally, the average low-information voter at the ballot box, in their confusion, may just choose who they are the most familiar with -- thus incumbent advantage. At this point it is in the Conservatives' best interest at times to clandestinely encourage popularity of the NDP vs Liberals and vice versa in order to keep them fighting over the same voters.

I hope I'm wrong. We need active voters who vote on informed choices.