Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy
Except for BC you will see this across the country. BC is a bit of an anomaly because so many seats are legitimately 3-way races and the province as a whole is the most evenly split in the country.
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Have said myself for 2 years (as well) that the BC popular vote share would fall on e-day as more of a pre-2008 election vote pattern:
Con: 37% - 40%
Liberal/NDP 25% each (with party having most momentum leading into e-day falling into higher 20% range and the other in the lower 20% range)
Green: 10%+
1. The Cons in BC have their base in the BC interior/Fraser Valley/southern and eastern Metro Van suburbs;
2. The Liberals have their base in Van City proper and surrounding inner suburbs;
3. The Greens have their base on southern half of Van Isle;
4. The NDP vote is spread out too thinly - leaving them, in all likelihood, with just ~6/42 BC seats on e-day based upon my BC riding-by-riding analysis.
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