YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[deasine]

Not to put out the fire with water, but this decision by BA is less about growth specifically at YVR and more about freeing up two spare aircraft for other routes. As we discussed before, BAs A380 is a very premium heavy configrudtuin and there is no way this will be filled (great for people looking for upgrades or to redeem awards though BA charges really high YQ). There aren't many routes suitable in BAs network that is suitable for the deployment of this aircraft: BA has been releasing this to only slot constricted airports. The reduction of freuqency to YVR is indicative of the fact that our market cannot handle the additional flood in capacity. In some ways, one can even consider this a downgrade with the decrease in weekly frequency... But it shows to you YVR isn't so much a business airport as BA is willing to decrease freuqency, which is again indicative oir smaller market.

I don't think this will necessarily be a one-off scenario. But this won't be a long-term occurrence either until the market grows and matures. But as that occurs, given this end is not a slot constricted airport (and there our alternative less constricted airports in London), if there are any new entrants such as WestJet, this A380 will instantly be unsustainable, but the added competition should technically be better for consumers.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by connect2source

I'll be switching my allegiance to One World because of this as my Aeroplan option is the HD AC 77W sardine can. I hope AC responds to this by removing their torture device from YVR-LHR.

Please, what kind of torture device? (aircraft and configuraion, of course). I'm interested in what AC offers, too. Thank you.

[hoboman27]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Whilst you were sleeping...

Are you all sitting down...

Daily BA A380 LHR-YVR effective 1 May 2016

http://airlineroute.net/2015/07/29/ba-yvr-s16update2/

This is HUGE news!

...

Now we just need to wait for a weather or medical diversion and Calgary will get it's A380

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by hoboman27

Now we just need to wait for a weather or medical diversion and Calgary will get it's A380

Wouldn't Edmonton be a more likely one as the YVR-LHR flight path is north of Edmonton. Sorry to disappoint.

Why are some people saying that this will be a reduction in seats? Johnny was saying.

And they are maintaing the 12 weekly summer schedule. I just knew something more had to happen for BA to drop from 12 weekly 744s to 12 weekly 772s.

So there you have it...

BA087 LHR1240 – 1400YVR 772 x23
BA085 LHR1715 – 1840YVR 388 D

BA086 YVR1755 – 1115+1LHR 772 x23
BA084 YVR2050 – 1400+1LHR 388 D

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by Canadian74

They are not maintaining 12 weekly , it has been reduced to daily A380 only.

Seems that the original source got edited after Johnny posted his message.

BA085/084 will be replacing 747-400 from 01MAY16. Previously BA085/084 was to be switched to 777-200ER from 15MAY16. Initially Vancouver was to be served 7 weekly A380 and 5 weekly 777-200ER, however the seasonal 5 weekly BA087/086 has been removed from the inventory around mid-day Wednesday (29JUL15).

This is still such a superior product compared to the tired 747. I only fly to Europe around Christmas, so for me personally this is only great news.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Klazu

Seems that the original source got edited after Johnny posted his message.



This is still such a superior product compared to the tired 747. I only fly to Europe around Christmas, so for me personally this is only great news.

See what happens when you go to sleep!

Yeah I saw the original post late at night and now there is the update that the second seasonal is gone. However, as we all know these things get tweaked all the time. Overall though this is definitely less seats than 12 weekly 744s but certainly more seats than 12 weekly 772s. I just couldn't believe BA would strip that much capacity away. Especially the low Y capacity 772s they were going to send. This seems a much better fit now looking at it in more detail.

And looking at it this way.... premium wise the A380 seats 14F and 97J. The 744s seat 14F and 52J.

So next summer BA will be offering 98F seats per week and 679J seats per week versus 168F and 624J seats per week. So in actual fact slightly less premium seating anyway (less F but more J) which makes sense for the YVR market.

And yeah, YVR will be only the second airport in Canada to see the A380 and the only Canadian airport with a daily A380 service.

This is still a pretty damn cool result.....

Now to convince a carrier with passenger 747-800s to start a YVR flight too

[nname]

BA to fly A380 to Vancouver

British Airways will launch a daily A380 service to Vancouver next summer.

From May 1, the airline will roster the superjumbo on to flights BA084/085 between London Heathrow and Vancouver International airport.

The aircraft will replace the B747-400 that currently operates on the route, reports airlineroute.net.

Outbound service BA085 will depart LHR at 1715 and land in Vancouver at 1840, while return service BA084 will leave Vancouver at 2050 and arrive in London at 1400 the next day.

BA's other LHR-Vancouver service, BA086/087 will increase from five-times weekly to daily and from a B747-400 to a B777-200ER on May 15.

(Source)

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Thought it would be interesting to take a swing at what the most likely route to ever see an A380 at YVR would be. Of note it is one of only a few airports in NA who can currently even accommodate a 380, even O'Hare can't AFAIK.

The following are long haul operators at YVR who run or will run the 380, ordered in a rough guess at their likelihood of ever running a 380, as well as a few notes justifying their position.

1. British Airways - Most likely, strong route, limited berths at Heathrow, business route;
2. Lufthansa - Not sure, but seems like a strong route;
3. China Southern - HNW travel between China and YVR strong. Beijing and Shanghai stronger markets;
4. Korean Airways - Not sure, could drop below Qantas;
5. Qantas - Highly unlikely, new route, tourist driven, some mining/business travel;
6. Air France - Highly unlikely, new route, tourist driven.

Anyone have any input? I don't think it will happen too soon, but if growth at YVR continues at it's current pace I'd imagine we might see one before the decade is out.

Wow, looks like I underestimated little ol' YVR. I was right we would see one before the decade is out, just didnt think it would be next year! Great news!

As I posted in the Canada section, I'm not too concerned about the drop in seats BA is offering, there is tons of time for them to add more seats via 3x or 4x 772 or a 767 daily or something like that. If they don't I'm sure some other airline will pick up the slack, load factors are high on UK routes and that demand isn't just going to disappear.

Either way YVR with the first daily A380 in Canada! Monstrous!

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by nname

(Source)

That's referencing the same Airlineroutes.com source which had a wrong information that got edited later in the day. Not sure if BA or YVR have published anything official on this?

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

If they don't I'm sure some other airline will pick up the slack, load factors are high on UK routes and that demand isn't just going to disappear.

Maybe Virgin Atlantic will return? Who knows.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Now to convince a carrier with passenger 747-800s to start a YVR flight too

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see one from Lufthansa in the near future.

With Iran opening up Germany is currently one of the best gateways to the country. With the large and predominantly wealthy Persian diaspora in Vancouver I could see this being a decent source of HNW growth for the run, helping support the F&B seats.

Or Air China could surprise, they can't seem to slow down adding seats to YVR. They only have a few but you never know.

[deasine]

Air China doesn't have any A380s but a future 747-8 service wouldn't be unconceivable. I don't believe Lufthansa will add the A380 to YVR for a couple reasons:

• LH has been slowly reducing the importance of FRA as their European hub. This has been due to plethora of flying restrictions along with a steady increase in charges due to the new (and quite frankly unnecessary) capacity upgrades FRA has been receiving.
• LH has fewer destinations in the US and routes more align with UA's hubs and the tendency to increase capacity to these hubs seems more likely than to YVR (whereas BA has more destinations and to non-oneworld hub airports, BA/AA focus is much more on TATL flights as the premier [in their words] North America-Europe hub).
• YVR is not a premium market

That doesn't mean LH won't add capacity per say, but I do see an upgrade of the MUC route to a higher capacity aircraft more likely than an A380 service.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see one from Lufthansa in the near future.

With Iran opening up Germany is currently one of the best gateways to the country. With the large and predominantly wealthy Persian diaspora in Vancouver I could see this being a decent source of HNW growth for the run, helping support the F&B seats.

Or Air China could surprise, they can't seem to slow down adding seats to YVR. They only have a few but you never know.

Call me the forever optimist... but also try and be realistic!

I am actually quite surprised BA is sending the A380 to YVR. But I will agree some of the member's predictions (including yours) were spot on! Good work.

The rest of that list though... I just cannot see:

QF: the YVR market will be ideally suited for a 787-900 type a/c if and when QF gets around to finally doing something about their long-haul fleet. I just cannot see an A380 on this route.

CZ: a huge gap between what they are sending now (787-800) and the A380. I would think we may see CZ add frequencies though.

KE: I will sit on the fence, but still unlikely.

AF: no way. If they cannot make YUL work, forget YVR.

LH: probably the next best chance. However....
Eventually they are going to have to replace the 744 on the YVR route with something. Putting either the 388 or the 748 on YVR would mean bringing back F class which doesn't seem to be the direction YVR-Europe is heading. Interesting that YVR-MUC does have F but not FRA. However, I think the 333 used on that route is more about total capacity and the right sized aircraft for YVR-MUC. In any event, the 748 doesn't have enough Y seats for the YVR market, but the A380 would and the premium difference between the 388 and the 748 is marginal. Soooo I would tip we would see a LH 388 rather than a 748. BUT - LH is not due to reveive any more of either so who knows!! So what I actually think we may see is Air Canada getting back into the direct YVR-FRA market and LH replaces the 744 with something smaller.

As for maybe seeing an Air China 748? Well, CA has certainly been rolling out all their new products to YVR lately and will be having their new F class on each flight. And the 748 would introduce premium economy and overall not that much more premium heavy than the 777-300ER they are sening now. But I bet they stick with the 77Ws and maintain the frequencies.

It seems more recently more airlines are introducing their newer products to YVR rather than the hand-me-down type stuff. Good news all around.

[LeftCoaster]

^ Ya that list was a musing of who would be likely to ever send one, not at all a thought that every route mentioned would be viable!

Originally Posted by deasine

Air China doesn't have any A380s but a future 747-8 service wouldn't be unconceivable. I don't believe Lufthansa will add the A380 to YVR for a couple reasons:[list]

Just for clarity I was answering Johnny's question about a 748, not anther 380... I'm not that greedy! Although....

I don't expect to see another 380 soon, I hope we can keep the one we just got. I agree with Johnny that AC will likely up YVR-Europe before anything else happens and that will preclude LF from adding one. I'd also expect to see Iceland Air go daily or someone else to add more frequency before seeing another 380.

Now that we got the 380 I think it's time to go back to dreaming up new destinations.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

^ Ya that list was a musing of who would be likely to ever send one, not at all a thought that every route mentioned would be viable!

I don't expect to see another 380 soon, I hope we can keep the one we just got. I agree with Johnny that AC will likely up YVR-Europe before anything else happens and that will preclude LF from adding one. I'd also expect to see Iceland Air go daily or someone else to add more frequency before seeing another 380.

Now that we got the 380 I think it's time to go back to dreaming up new destinations.

With AC going to launch BNE, Hainan's application to start, the possibility of Xiamen down the road (they are now buying more 787s) I still think the majority of growth will continue to be Asia/Pacific-centric. It's just inevitable that is where the growth is going to come from.

Europe is now very well covered from YVR. Year-round scheduled flights to LHR, CDG, AMS and FRA plus all the seasonal additions... not bad for a city on the west coast of NA. I really cannot see that much more to Europe other than the odd frequency increases to KEF (on FI) and FRA (on AC) and perhaps AF moves CDG to daily. Looks like Condor is maintaining its four weekly to YVR next summer and Edelweiss maintaining its three weekly flights. Air Transat increasing summer flights to LGW (basically YVR grabbed the once weekly YEG flight) and upping its winter flights to LGW (albeit from once to twice weekly and only starting early Feb) is another small but positive sign as those flights were moved from YYC (Westjet effect no doubt - especially if they go LGW year-round).

Now the question is going to be.. will BA make the 388 year-round?

[excel]

Awesome news. Excited to see it.

[CareerShow]

I think BA will end up adding the 5 weekly service back before next summer. The loss of Virgin Atlantic coupled with the decrease will see the need for extra flights to the London area.

[CareerShow]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

With AC going to launch BNE, Hainan's application to start, the possibility of Xiamen down the road (they are now buying more 787s) I still think the majority of growth will continue to be Asia/Pacific-centric. It's just inevitable that is where the growth is going to come from.

Europe is now very well covered from YVR. Year-round scheduled flights to LHR, CDG, AMS and FRA plus all the seasonal additions... not bad for a city on the west coast of NA. I really cannot see that much more to Europe other than the odd frequency increases to KEF (on FI) and FRA (on AC) and perhaps AF moves CDG to daily. Looks like Condor is maintaining its four weekly to YVR next summer and Edelweiss maintaining its three weekly flights. Air Transat increasing summer flights to LGW (basically YVR grabbed the once weekly YEG flight) and upping its winter flights to LGW (albeit from once to twice weekly and only starting early Feb) is another small but positive sign as those flights were moved from YYC (Westjet effect no doubt - especially if they go LGW year-round).

Now the question is going to be.. will BA make the 388 year-round?

I would say Yes unless they decided to put a 77W on the route, which has the same capacity as the 747.

[usog]

Man I really, really feel like Mileage Plan from AS is the way to go now if you live in Vancouver.

[deasine]

Originally Posted by usog

Man I really, really feel like Mileage Plan from AS is the way to go now if you live in Vancouver.

I hope you didn't necessarily make this comment because BA is sending an A380! Don't forget YQ on BA is at least $600CAD for a J flight. And these rates, you are better off redeeming LH J through Aeroplan.

[usog]

Originally Posted by deasine

I hope you didn't necessarily make this comment because BA is sending an A380! Don't forget YQ on BA is at least $600CAD for a J flight. And these rates, you are better off redeeming LH J through Aeroplan.

Haha no I'm somewhat aware of the fees BA and LHR add, but with all the attention other carriers are giving YVR it seems like there's no point conjoining oneself to Aeroplan anymore. Mileage Plan seems to have almost all the right partners to maximize point gain when your home base is YVR while enjoying a diversity of carriers.