Addendum to HFS_Draper Lehi UT.
April 16, 2015
We have spent significant effort in evaluating the implications of the data and conclusions detailed in the feasibility study of the Draper Lehi 250 room Full Service Hotel (and the 96 room extended stay design) and have formed some additional conclusions relative to the project, the site, the local area and the larger Metropolitan Statistical Area known as Salt Lake City - Provo – Orem Combined Statistical Area.
This Area is made up of nine counties in northern Utah. The statistical area includes three metropolitan areas and two micropolitan areas. As of the 2012 estimate, the CSA had a population of 2,350,274.
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs)
Salt Lake City MSA (Salt Lake, Summit, and Tooele counties)
Provo-Orem MSA (Utah County)
Ogden-Clearfield MSA (Davis, Morgan, and Weber counties)
Micropolitan Statistical Areas (μSAs)
Brigham City (Box Elder County)
Heber City (Wasatch County)
Specifically, our focus is on the two MSA's Salt Lake City and Provo Orem which have pegged the most economic growth and have thereby influenced Utah' s standings as an economic and technological leader in most state rankings both formal and informal.
They also comprise the majority of what is being referred to as “The Silicon Slope” a reference to its stature as an emerging center of IT based business enterprises. As a case in point, the size of venture capital investments in the first nine months of 2014 placed Provo-Orem and Salt Lake City-Ogden as numbers 1 and 3 respectively, nationally. Inc. magazine article.
We are particularly focusing on the map below and note that the location of the site as almost the geographic center of the Combined Statistical Area. More importantly it is at the center of economic, technological, educational, recreational and very close to becoming the population center of the major urban areas of Utah.
These are significant considerations presently, however, they almost certainly will be even more important in the near and long term.
The city of Draper has unveiled a vision of unprecedented urban development to be built on land currently occupied by the Utah state prison. The Utah legislature has voted to move the prison subject to finding a suitable new location.
In spite of the opposition from initially selected communities, it is likely that over time a location will be secured, if for no other reason that the current site is too central and too valuable for its current use. The only variable, in our opinion, is time.
That being said, the roughly 700 acres has a market value today of approximately
$ 609,840,000 (at $ 20 per SF) and over time will only become more valuable creating additional pressure to relocate the facility.
A rendering of possible development as presented by Draper City at a recent press conference is shown below. Note that the hotel site is located at the upper center of the rendering.
Although this degree of urbanization and development will take some time, it is worth noting that it is already occurring in the surrounding area and Draper Lehi and adjacent communities already offer over 60% of the office and commercial space that exists in the Salt Lake City CBD, with more being added and/or planned.
Although it is speculative on our part, it is conceivable that in 25(+) years, this area could be a new “downtown” of a Mega City along the Wasatch Front, if recent trends continue. Certainly the relocation of the prison will go a long way towards focusing commercial and development activities in this direction.
Salt Lake City continues to show innovative and forward thinking in its evolution and growth, possibly even a model for the city government of Draper to consider. So while we don't envision the “point of the mountain” as a replacement for Salt Lake City, it could clearly become a compliment and balancing urban presence, enhancing both cities and the entire Wasatch Front.
What is not speculative, is the role the communities of Draper and Lehi (ET AL) already play in the dynamism that is the Silicon Slope. It is entirely likely that these innovations and investments will occur and increase, fueling even more start ups, additions, relocation and support. Being relatively new cities, they may learn from and avoid the pitfalls of urbanization from surrounding cities and since the industries that are attracted are global and (relatively) green, the quality of life could remain high if the local governments are informed and pro active.
Building activity in northern Utah County is as or more active than the southern end of Salt Lake County.
Some of the demographic data that we looked at in establishing our projections of area growth are:
Utah's population tends to be younger (27.1), lives longer (77.7), has higher fertility rates (2.68) and more persons per household (3.13 persons).
Utah's population growth of 29.6% more than doubled that of the nation (13.2%).
Of All The Fifty States, Utah Has...
A. The highest rate of job growth – (4.5%)
B. Highest literacy rate.
C. 4th highest percent of high school graduates.
D. 11th highest percent of college graduates.
E. 7th lowest violent crime rates.
F. 3rd longest life expectancy.
If current trends continue, we are confident that our findings as detailed in the feasibility study will be valid, if not conservative. We sense that you have added value to the land by virtue of the proposed use, optimum design criteria and commencement of building plans. It is clear to us that upon building completion, your project will positively influence land values in the area, possibly even increasing the asking/selling price of the state prison parcel.
Econometrix