YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I apologise profusely for focusing on the positives and the "what we have" versus "what we could have" but....

Zowie! I was expecting less than 4% total growth.

http://yvr.ca/Libraries/Aviation_Marketing/Traffic_Update_Feb_2015.sflb.ashx

Overall up 6%. Total international up 9.1%.

Every single sector up... Transborder and Europe continuing double digit growth. And Asia Pacific up a respectable 6.5%.

Total up over 80,000, Transborder alone was up over 40,000, compared to Feb 2014... who would have thought?

And those cargo stats?! Up 25.9%.... Wow!!

Certainly no slow down on the West Coast....

Great news, the cargo is nuts, although looking at past cargo stats it looks pretty volatile.

You really see the resurgence in the US economy, with that huge transborder growth more than offsetting the expected weak domestic numbers. Pleasant surprise continues to be Europe numbers.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Great news, the cargo is nuts, although looking at past cargo stats it looks pretty volatile.

You really see the resurgence in the US economy, with that huge transborder growth more than offsetting the expected weak domestic numbers. Pleasant surprise continues to be Europe numbers.

Yeah it is a pleasant surprise. And once we start to see AF's ramp up perhaps even more... Although come summer time capacity is only marginally higher than last summer due to Virgin Atlantic's pullout with a few other ups and downs but luckily more ups than downs... It's encouraging to see that YVR's international numbers are really being boosted by "overseas" international and not just sun destination traffic... although that's increasing as well.

I definitely expected transborder to skyrocket thanks to rouge mainly, plus more Westjet, Delta, American etc... Again, the only capacity pull down was Alaska to LAX. YVR certainly escaped any significant UA reductions unlike most of Western Canada. Transborder should continue to do well at least through the summer, early fall.

Domestic is still doing OK. 3.1% growth is not bad considering what's happening in the rest of Western Canada.

As for cargo, I think that Feb is (finally) a monthly record for Feb... I've been tracking the last 12 months and cargo seems to be on the constant uptick compared to the ups and downs previously. YVR is the only Canadian airport that releases cargo stats on a regular basis... Not sure why!? It would be nice to see other airports back up their grand standing press releases with numbers. YVR still seems to be quite modest with its PR.

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

If all else fails, go out of the security cleared zone, and up to the observation floor. You should be able to see some of them from up there and get a good vantage of the apron/runways. Definitely a good plan B, perhaps even better than getting to the international departures zone.

Actually, the observation deck is not a very good vantage point for the D and E wings. Definitely you can see the best movement action if the active runways are the 08s. But if you are wanting to see the international stationary tails, not very good.

[casper]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Great news, the cargo is nuts, although looking at past cargo stats it looks pretty volatile.

You really see the resurgence in the US economy, with that huge transborder growth more than offsetting the expected weak domestic numbers. Pleasant surprise continues to be Europe numbers.

There is also a labour dispute in some of the ports in California. There probably is a small percentage of that cargo that would have been shifted from cargo ships to air. Interesting to see if it holds going forward.

[deasine]

Originally Posted by yyc_engineer

This may be a stupid question, but can domestic pax walk over to the International Pier (D gates area)?

I'm flying YYC-YVR-YYJ tomorrow with 2.5 hour layover and it'd be cool to check out the parked Asian widebody planes but for some reason I recall that you can't walk over the D gate area unless you're flying Internationally. (which would be different from YYC where you can walk between Domestic and International (non-US) gates).

I think there is a security desk/commissionaire or something that checks your boarding card - maybe I can sweet talk them? Can anyone confirm? Thanks!

There's a boarding pass check that prohibits this from happening. If you are lucky, you can actually check out the int'l planes from Pier C (Air Canada pier) as a lot of jets often park on the south side of Pier D (which would make it visible).

[Johnny Aussie]

UK prelim Stats for Feb 2015 have been released.

YVR-LHR up a healthy 20.6%. Steady after a 25.3% January increase. This helps explain the large increase to Europe in February.
YVR-LGW was down marginally about 3%. January was up 7.9% in comparison.

Next winter it looks like Transat will maintain its once weekly YVR-LGW before increasing to 2 weekly in early March 2016 (earlier than this year).

Source: http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80&pagetype=88&sglid=11&fld=201502

[Johnny Aussie]

AA has just updated their winter 2015/16 scheds and it looks like AA is increasing DFW and PHX to 3 daily year-round. Normally AA reduces both routes to 2 daily for the winter scheds.

All three DFW flights are showing as 738s. PHX is 2 daily 320s and a daily CR9.

Along with the new(ish) 2 daily LAX, that will make 8 AA ops per day next winter.

And with the increase to PHX, PHX bumps up to 5 daily with Westjet and rouge also on the route.

Of course things can change....

Perhaps AA is riding on the transborder wave!

[trofirhen]

http://www.vancouversun.com/Business/asi...s+there+should+limits/9177541/story.html

Calin Rovinescu warned some time back that without a strong Air Canada hub, YVR was destined to become a "stub" airport, of airlines that had their hubs elsewhere.....................

{He said the support of a strong, domestic air carrier, one willing to invest directly in YVR’s hub operations, is the real way to maximize Vancouver’s gateway identity. Some foreign carriers — if unfettered by rules — may turn YVR into a “stub” feeding into other international hubs, he said.}

Gee Mr. Rovinescu, we seem to be rather a stub, and we're doing just great, thanks. Sorry to blow your theory. AC didn't pick up available routes. Others did.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

UK prelim Stats for Feb 2015 have been released.

YVR-LHR up a healthy 20.6%. Steady after a 25.3% January increase. This helps explain the large increase to Europe in February.
YVR-LGW was down marginally about 3%. January was up 7.9% in comparison.

Next winter it looks like Transat will maintain its once weekly YVR-LGW before increasing to 2 weekly in early March 2016 (earlier than this year).

Source: http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80&pagetype=88&sglid=11&fld=201502

I tried to fly to South Africa via BA YVR-LHR-JNB in mid-March and found that BA was booked solid for everything except First Class. Had to do a less direct YVR-DFW-LHR-JNB routing with AA & BA (AA codeshare) for the LHR-JNB segments.

With BA regularly filling its YVR-LHR with a 744, and that aircraft type being phased out for A388, I wonder whether BA would go the route of running a A388 on the YVR-LRH route, or more frequent service with its ordered A350 or existing B773 fleet?

[deasine]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

I tried to fly to South Africa via BA YVR-LHR-JNB in mid-March and found that BA was booked solid for everything except First Class. Had to do a less direct YVR-DFW-LHR-JNB routing with AA & BA (AA codeshare) for the LHR-JNB segments.

With BA regularly filling its YVR-LHR with a 744, and that aircraft type being phased out for A388, I wonder whether BA would go the route of running a A388 on the YVR-LRH route, or more frequent service with its ordered A350 or existing B773 fleet?

Well during the summer period BA goes more than daily (10 weekly I think?). I definitely don't think the 380 is warranted in Vancouver. Rather, there are many more routes British Airways would be interested in deploying the 380 rather than Vancouver. The 380 is also a premium heavy aircraft and Vancouver just doesn't have the support for it. Increasing frequency is through like the 787 for instance is probably the better way to go... but then there's the issue of slots at LHR...

[Hourglass]

Originally Posted by deasine

Well during the summer period BA goes more than daily (10 weekly I think?). I definitely don't think the 380 is warranted in Vancouver. Rather, there are many more routes British Airways would be interested in deploying the 380 rather than Vancouver. The 380 is also a premium heavy aircraft and Vancouver just doesn't have the support for it. Increasing frequency is through like the 787 for instance is probably the better way to go... but then there's the issue of slots at LHR...

I think last summer was 12-13x/weekly.

Would be cool to see BA fly their A380s to YVR, even if only during the summer, but given they only have 13 of the whalejets at the moment, I'd have to agree they'd be better utilized elsewhere.

[SFUVancouver]

I don't disagree with the likelihood of BA's limited number of A380s being far more valuable on other routes than the LHR-YVR route, but the day will come when its B744 fleet is retired, replaced with a split fleet of larger A388 and smaller A350, B777, and B787 jets. So my musing was what BA's plan would be for YVR: more frequent flights with smaller aircraft (777, 787, or A350) or a similar (or reduced) flight cadence with a larger aircraft, namely the A380. BA is going to be slot-limited at LHR for the foreseeable future, at least until the 3rd runway can be built, and with the LHR-YVR route being a dependable profit centre with high load factors, the airline will have to juggle to let it grow.

[deasine]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

I don't disagree with the likelihood of BA's limited number of A380s being far more valuable on other routes than the LHR-YVR route, but the day will come when its B744 fleet is retired, replaced with a split fleet of larger A388 and smaller A350, B777, and B787 jets. So my musing was what BA's plan would be for YVR: more frequent flights with smaller aircraft (777, 787, or A350) or a similar (or reduced) flight cadence with a larger aircraft, namely the A380. BA is going to be slot-limited at LHR for the foreseeable future, at least until the 3rd runway can be built, and with the LHR-YVR route being a dependable profit centre with high load factors, the airline will have to juggle to let it grow.

The thing is the airline isn't suffering from significant market leakage. British Airways is enjoying high average load factors, Air Canada is also enjoying high average load factors. And with the exit of Virgin Atlantic thereby removing competition, there isn't much choice you have and so both airlines can raise prices making higher profits and be able to get away with it! In fact, BA isn't that interested in the third runway as it would lose market share to other carriers and would decrease its share of slots at Heathrow (current ~50% but third runway must be accessible to competing carriers and new entrants under EU law).

Until we have a demonstrated premium market, there will be no desire for BA to fly to YVR using A380s (And remember AC's use of a 777 HDs, low yield heavy aircraft, is indicative of how weak the premium market is to YVR despite the fact the planes are always full).

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by deasine

Until we have a demonstrated premium market, there will be no desire for BA to fly to YVR using A380s (And remember AC's use of a 777 HDs, low yield heavy aircraft, is indicative of how weak the premium market is to YVR despite the fact the planes are always full).

YVR actually does have a decent premium market (moreso to Asia) however, certainly not big enough to warrant A380s on any airline for the time being. One could argue the HD 777 they are using on YVR-LHR actually has more premium seating than any other AC aircraft at the moment. The HD has only 6 fewer J seats but they have 24 Premium Economy Seats to cover the in between market. The fact that the economy cabin is cramped in huge is not relevant to the premium market argument.

BA would be better off going to two daily on triple 7s or similar.

[Johnny Aussie]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/brit...ces-buoy-jetlines-hopes/article23570549/

Now looking at a September launch. Starting out small with two jets and one backup (?). YVR and YWG to be "hubs." Within 18 months expand to YHM to make it the central Canada hub. Not surprisingly they are having difficulties raising capital.

They might want to stop divulging so much information or they may become like Target in Canada giving their competitors a lot of info to prepare for competition. Loose lips sink ships. That is of course they actually do manage to fly.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

YVR actually does have a decent premium market (moreso to Asia) however, certainly not big enough to warrant A380s on any airline for the time being. One could argue the HD 777 they are using on YVR-LHR actually has more premium seating than any other AC aircraft at the moment. The HD has only 6 fewer J seats but they have 24 Premium Economy Seats to cover the in between market. The fact that the economy cabin is cramped in huge is not relevant to the premium market argument.

BA would be better off going to two daily on triple 7s or similar.

I would love to see BA go YVR - LHR twice daily.

[SpongeG]

you can fly to south africa via amsterdam or frankfurt as well, all routes via europe give you a good 8+ hour layover

[casper]

Originally Posted by casper

There is also a labour dispute in some of the ports in California. There probably is a small percentage of that cargo that would have been shifted from cargo ships to air. Interesting to see if it holds going forward.

Interesting article on the increase in air cargo.....

http://business.financialpost.com/news/t...t-congestion-boosts-demand-for-air-cargo

[Johnny Aussie]

KLM is rolling out their summer 2016 timetable already.

YVR-AMS will be daily 777-200ER. This is replacing the daily A330-300.

Decent bump in seats.... approx 168 per week. More premium seats as well.

http://airlineroute.net/2015/04/06/kl-s16update2/

[rxp]

That would still give Delta more Chinese customers to ferry into the U.S. and beyond to points such as Sao Paulo, where the airline owns a stake in Brazil’s Gol. Traffic between China and Brazil is seeing tremendous growth, Boyd said. The only question is whether a Chinese carrier would want to operate in a trans-Pacific partnership with Delta or fly its own planes, Boyd said.

source

Whats happening with our thing at YVR? dont know the official name, but the transit area

[casper]

Originally Posted by rxp

source

Whats happening with our thing at YVR? dont know the official name, but the transit area

I am all for YVR becoming the mega hub of the world. However is it not faster to transfer in Toronto (shorter length) for travel between Brazil and Shanghai.

If I were running Air Canada, I would not care if its Toronto or Vancouver, I would use the city that provides the best competitive advantage over Delta and others. They also serve Rio and San Paulo non-stop from Toronto.