Originally Posted by Alpine
I was doing some research as to why there is no direct Vancouver-India flight. And I think it has less to do with YYZ and AC bullying YVR.
Longhaul flights make most of its money from business travel; premium cabins and last-minute tickets contribute about 50% of revenue to an average international flight. The former is expensive and the latter has inelastic pricing (airlines know clients will pay anything because the boss said "fly out ASAP" and the company is also paying).
At any rate, Canada and India don't do much business. In 2013 two-party trade was $6B, a third of India-Australia trade and twelve times that of Canada-China trade (if you are ever at YVR late in the morning, see how many pieces of Louis Vuitton luggage you can spot at the check-in line for AC29 to Beijing). So there's little demand for Vancouver-India business travel.
The vast majority of Vancouver-India traffic is VFR traffic. Most Indo-Canadians here are working or middle class; descended from settlers who built the CPR in the 19th century, or refugees who fled a Sikh extremist insurgency and the subsequent anti-Sikh violence in India in the 1980s. They're not rich and Indian culture is well known for promoting frugality anyway (e.g. buying milk at the Bellingham Costco). VFR passengers tend to find the cheapest seats they can. They will book in economy, buy in advance and get the Y [restricted] seats because they're cheaper. Indians tend to travel in families,
Also, VFR travellers will prefer a cheaper flight with stopovers than a indirect flight; doubly so for Indians who generally travel in families and can't afford the extra $400/person. This actually works out perfectly for airlines with the rise of hub traffic. The BA86 or AC854 to LHR can handle the large number of MENASA-descent people in Vancouver who often travel to this region and will connect at Heathrow to Emirates, Qatar, Saudiya, etc.; while still accommodating the handful of business travellers in the premium cabins for which a direct flight would not be profitable. Combined with strong Canada-UK trade that increases demand for YVR-LHR premium seats and you have an equation for profitability.
It's the same from YVR-India traffic. I mean, look at how many Indians you see at the CX889 check in line late at night. It arrives at HKG at 7am, perfect timing for the CX695 to Delhi late in the afternoon.
Other routes that I've found in my research include:
AC854 YVR-LHR AI116 LHR-DEL (three hours for transit)
China Eastern MU582 YVR-PVG MU563 PVG-DEL (4.5 hours for transit)
China Southern CZ330 YVR-CAN CZ359 CAN-DEL (two hours for transit)
Air China CA992 YVR-PEK CA947 PEK-DEL (five hours for transit)
LH493 YVR-FRA LH760 FRA-DEL (three hours for transit)
China Airlines CI31 YVR-TPE CI71 TPE-DEL (two hours for transit)
Depending on the day you fly out, and how far in advance you prices for these routings hover around the $1,100-1,300 area.
Routes I'm not so sure about:
BA84/257 YVR-LHR-DEL (expensive)
JL17 YVR-NRT JL749 NRT-DEL (requires an overnight layover)
ANA 115 YVR-HND and ANA 917 NRT-DEL (requires a connection by train)
Such is the business of aviation. Phillippine's direct YYZ-MNL and AC's direct YUL-FCO failed because while there are large numbers of Pinoys and Italians in Toronto and Montreal, they are mostly middle and working class, price-sensitive VFR travellers.
Another great example closer to Vancouver is the fact that, despite a large Ethiopian population in Seattle, there is no direct SEA-ADD flight. Indeed, there are large Ethiopian diasporas in Atlanta, Minneapolis, Dallas and LA (not in NYC surprisingly), but ET has only two NA destinations: IAD and YYZ, to scoop up East Coast business traffic and Ethiopians connecting from elsewhere in the US and Canada. East Coast business traffic is also the reason why AC is restarting YYZ-DEL.
Similar logic may explain why there is no direct year-round flight to Paris, Rome, Athens, Dubai, Doha, Moscow, etc. much to the chagrin of SSP.
O/T: Being of Ethiopian myself, I have flown to Addis Ababa twice, and my family goes back from time to time. I flew BA both times; BA86 to Heathrow, and then BA6565 (operated by BMED which was bought by BMI and later shut down. The only London-Addis flight today is Ethiopian 701). The first time I flew, the plane stopped over in Alexandria, Egypt. The next year, it was via Beirut (it was a year after the Lebanon War so I was hoping to see some war damage, but we arrived very early in the morning and it was too dark to see anything. I did however get to see the sun rise over Egypt). My parents have flown LH493 and 598 via Frankfurt, then AC156/ET503 and ET502/AC149 once Ethiopian began YYZ-ADD service.
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Might give SEA a run for its money.
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