Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by caltrane74

Ok 2 years $2000 dollars.

I'll escrow the money anytime.

May I ask does Canadian dollar dropping, or oil staying below 60 buck during that time have any effect on this scenario?

[caltrane74]

Whatever rules you want to apply exclusive/ or inclusive of the housing market.

Just as long as you come back here in 2 years to settle I'm good with it.

[caltrane74]

Forget it, I'll just cut you a check on January 2, 2017.

Cheers!

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by Berklon

The statistics prove that you're delusional.

The statistics can be manipulated like enron. Facts have much more importances.

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Vancouver+home+sales+finish+2014/10703080/story.html

Some people need to have disinformation as there most important facts Berklon. Sorry that is not the sky falling! It is just winter time in Vancouver with lots of rain!

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by Stryker

Sense you do not make.


Everyone and there dog is finally starting to agree that canada is a bubble.

No one said when its gonna a pop even if it does.


Most of us agree that post 2008 most of the growth in this country has been built speculation.

What I make is money not sense! I have some sense that will interest you.
http://www.theprovince.com/health/Five+most+demand+jobs+British+Columbia/10697856/story.html
May I ask you a honest question? Can you tell me what you know about the Vancouver market? Please be honest!

[craneSpotter]

Bejesus.

Detached-house prices hit record high in Lower Mainland

Benchmark single-family house surpasses $1 million for the first time


Vancouver Sun - Jan 5, 2015

Total Multiple Listing Service residential sales rose by 16.1 per cent in Greater Vancouver last year to 33,116.

It was a similar story in the Fraser Valley market last year, with total MLS residential sales increasing by 16 per cent to 15,840 and single-family house price increases leading the way.

BENCHMARK PRICES FOR METRO VANCOUVER HOMES (December 2014)

Greater Vancouver

• Detached: $1,002,200, up 8.1 per cent in the past year

• Townhomes: $476,800,up 4.5 per cent

• Apartments: $380,700, up 3.5 per cent

Fraser Valley (North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Langley, Abbotsford and Mission)

• Detached: $573,100, up 4.3 per cent in the past year

• Townhomes: $293,500, up 0.1 per cent

• Apartments: $191,100, down 0.8 per cent

I like the use of the Home Price Index benchmark price as opposed to the sometimes used 'average' price. For those that don't know, the benchmark price excludes the extreme high-end and low-end properties in a market, which can skew the average.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by craneSpotter

Bejesus.

Detached-house prices hit record high in Lower Mainland

Benchmark single-family house surpasses $1 million for the first time


Vancouver Sun - Jan 5, 2015



I like the use of the Home Price Index benchmark price as opposed to the sometimes used 'average' price. For those that don't know, the benchmark price excludes the extreme high-end and low-end properties in a market, which can skew the average.

It certainly tells a story: single family homes are being driven up at a ludicrous rate by offshore money. The townhomes & condos that Vancouverites can afford are less frothy, because they actually have to earn the money in Canada to pay for them.

[Coldrsx]

Average Edmonton house values rise 7.1 per cent to hit record $401,000

By Gordon Kent, Edmonton Journal

EDMONTON - The value of the typical Edmonton house value hit a record $401,000 last year after assessments jumped 7.1 per cent, city officials said Monday.

“Overall, Edmonton’s economy continued to perform very well,” assessment and taxation branch manager Rod Risling told a news conference Monday.

“We have seen increases across the board.”

It’s the first time average single-family home values in Edmonton have been more than $400,000, pushed by the biggest rise in assessments since 2011.

- See more at: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/...10702966/story.html#sthash.qqmQaEIi.dpuf

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally Posted by caltrane74

Ok 2 years $2000 dollars.

I'll escrow the money anytime.

Why any time frame? I thought the idea behind this is bubble vs non bubble. It could take 3 years or longer for conditions to be met for a correction to occur in the booming custom home market.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

I have to have a laugh right now. This is one of the longest threads with no meaning. I have watched this thread go now where for years. It is the best example of the chicken little sky is falling!

SSI is living in BC because his inlaws and boyfriend pay for him. He has no goals or real ideas to reality outside of growing up in London Ontario. First he lived on Salt Spring island where I have lots of relatives.
Now he lives in beautiful white rock! Both places 99% of our country could dream to live in! Honestly his nightmare dream of BC is his own insecurities of his own life!

Those of us whom live in BC and support ourselves are not doing so badly! Sure we might not be Billionaires but most of us millionaires are not complaining like him!

You are obviously new here so a word of advice........

These forums are for intelligent conversation where people share their views and perspectives. Some you will agree with and some you won't which is fine.

That said personal attacks and mud slinging are not appreciated. I am not {nor anyone else} interested in your thoughts on someone personal life nor your insulting inferences.

If you want to contribute positively to the forums then please do but if you want to continually make comments on people's character then I suggest you go elsewhere.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

May I ask you a honest question? Can you tell me what you know about the Vancouver market? Please be honest!

For starters, that the wages over there are pathetically low compared to current property prices. Do you really need much more?

[craneSpotter]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It certainly tells a story: single family homes are being driven up at a ludicrous rate by offshore money. The townhomes & condos that Vancouverites can afford are less frothy, because they actually have to earn the money in Canada to pay for them.

Yup it does. No wondering why Surrey is also the fastest growing city in the region and has been for a while...looks pretty easy for the 'average' Vancouver Metro family to afford a typical condo or townhouse there on paper (benchmark price/average income).

The benchmark detached home prices in the Greater Vancouver REB district (not the Fraser Valley REB district) also show the income/wealth inequality between east and west, I think. The priciest houses are all in the wealthiest neighbourhoods in the western parts where average annual household incomes range from 400k to 1.3 million with corresponding average net worths of $5 to 12 million. Add into that many foreign buyers also cherry-picking these areas for investment, increasing the sales volumes of 1 million+ homes and skewing the 'typical' home in the index calculation. In much of the eastern parts of the district - most neighbourhoods have average household incomes below 60/70k with several dipping under 50k - probably little sales volume in these areas.

Ah stats. Anecdotally we know several couples, with regular joe jobs, that have moved from 2bd/2bath condos, to fixer upper SF houses, to million dollar+ houses over the past 15 years over there. Good timing, but also partially due to cheap mortgage money - these people also skewed the market. The big trouble with the greater Vancouver market is with the younger people in their 20s, with no real estate equity or help from wealthy parents... how do they buy to the high price points now? Start building up in Surrey I guess... to eliminate the high land costs and create more affordable apartments...or just be happy renting.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by lio45

For starters, that the wages over there are pathetically low compared to current property prices. Do you really need much more?

Seriously I'm baffled at how this is even in question.

[leftimage]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

What I make is money not sense! I have some sense that will interest you.
http://www.theprovince.com/health/Five+most+demand+jobs+British+Columbia/10697856/story.html
May I ask you a honest question? Can you tell me what you know about the Vancouver market? Please be honest!

Your prior post was about sales being strong - no one had argued otherwise.

This one is about 5 hot jobs in BC right now...

I think the other poster was talking about hard, quantifiable data, like average wage vs house value. I'm not putting down whatever point you were trying to make, its just you seem to know about the BC real estate market, so... are you saying the wages vs home prices aren't completely out of whack in Metro Van?

I have a modest 65k salary here in Quebec, close to the BC average, and was able to purchase a nice 1300 SF condo last year. I am in my 20s. It's a 30-minute WALK from downtown Montreal and the mortgage is manageable.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I thought such an arrangement was a pipe dream in Vancouver... city proper AND surrounding areas. Am I mistaken?

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

What I make is money not sense! I have some sense that will interest you.
http://www.theprovince.com/health/Five+most+demand+jobs+British+Columbia/10697856/story.html
May I ask you a honest question? Can you tell me what you know about the Vancouver market? Please be honest!

If vancouver isn't a bubble, you're gonna have to find somewhere in the world where a ongoing real estate bubble exists. I can't think of any and I mean any example that fits it better.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

You are obviously new here so a word of advice........

These forums are for intelligent conversation where people share their views and perspectives. Some you will agree with and some you won't which is fine.

That said personal attacks and mud slinging are not appreciated. I am not {nor anyone else} interested in your thoughts on someone personal life nor your insulting inferences.

If you want to contribute positively to the forums then please do but if you want to continually make comments on people's character then I suggest you go elsewhere.

No actually I have been on both ssc and ssp longer than you!
I do agree that these forums are for intelligent conversations. So why are you not providing intelligent conversation?
Sorry, I am not here to be personal. I prefer honest conversation something you have a difficult time relaying. I could not do anything to your character that you have not done to your character already!

A pretty interesting quote from you

"I really hope that SSP doesn't become like SSC which has seen a dramatic decline is usage due to the overly zealous censorship where every other thread seems to get shut down. It has diminished to talking about high rises, the weather, and what you had to eat last night."

Anyways, to keep on topic I want to leave you with a very interesting article!
Best prices in the country in Vancouver for a house

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/vancouver-developer-offers-houses-free-225707495.html

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

For starters, that the wages over there are pathetically low compared to current property prices. Do you really need much more?

Firstly, it is not how much money you make. It is always what do you do with your money. One of the reasons the market in Vancouver is so strong is because the people in the area believe in it!

No one goes and buys a million dollar house in Vancouver when they are young unless they are given or inherit it. I am certain it is the same in Toronto.

What you do is you invest in yourself you buy a condo live in it. You have to pay rent anyways. Then you sell make money buy a house. You move up.

People who do not live in the larger cities like Toronto Vancouver or Calgary
will not understand this idea.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by leftimage

Your prior post was about sales being strong - no one had argued otherwise.

This one is about 5 hot jobs in BC right now...

I think the other poster was talking about hard, quantifiable data, like average wage vs house value. I'm not putting down whatever point you were trying to make, its just you seem to know about the BC real estate market, so... are you saying the wages vs home prices aren't completely out of whack in Metro Van?

I have a modest 65k salary here in Quebec, close to the BC average, and was able to purchase a nice 1300 SF condo last year. I am in my 20s. It's a 30-minute WALK from downtown Montreal and the mortgage is manageable.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I thought such an arrangement was a pipe dream in Vancouver... city proper AND surrounding areas. Am I mistaken?

Well, to be honest I am just having some fun people love to quote articles on this site. Though it is important to note that with the potential of jobs creates opportunity this is one area the province shows with this article.

Also, your post on your salary is very interesting, as I am a person whom makes a little less in salary than you. But I own four houses in B.C.

Which goes to my point about the above post. It is not how much you make but what you do with what you make.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by Stryker

If vancouver isn't a bubble, you're gonna have to find somewhere in the world where a ongoing real estate bubble exists. I can't think of any and I mean any example that fits it better.

Well for all the bubble article about real estate in Canada we also have articles like this

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/pay-d...or-canadas-housing-market-185530709.html

Now I do not really care about articles much but in all reality a market is about supply and demand. Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary have a supply and demand that makes the market move upwards.

Montreal is in the province of Quebec it is not as secure a place to invest as the other provinces within Canada. So since the early 70's it has lost its place outside of Quebec to be the city it could have been within Canada.

This is not an insult it is a fact.

Many posters do not understand the basic fundamentals of a supply and demand market.

If people from foreign countries are putting money into your economy it is not a bad thing. You just have to adjust to the economics no matter what you make per year!

[ssiguy]

The Vancouver {and lesser extent Toronto's} real estate prices are kept lofty by ridiculously low interest rates which encourages people to go into debt far more than they can truly afford and the nation's largest welfare program.....CMHC.

When I was young 20 years was a very long mortgage and was still easily payable by one income. CMHC has allowed people who can't afford a house to get one. That would be OK if it was the banks that took the risk but it's not, it's the taxpayers. CMHC and the rising cost of housing has been a gift to the gods to the banks as they basically get all the proceeds and the taxpayers take on all the risk.