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  #5001  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 6:00 PM
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^ On that note, when I read Simplicity's posts, I can't help but to visualize the words coming out of Kevin O'Leary's mouth... he is like the Winnipeg version of him

     
     
  #5002  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 6:05 PM
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Originally Posted by The Unknown Poster View Post
If the condition of the company taking the financial risk of bringing a team to Winnipeg and everything that goes with it, is $4 million a year which is far less than the direct/indirect economic return, then it's a no brainer.

If I give you $100 a year forever and you agree to spend $200 a year at my shop forever, I think I'm okay with that.

I know thats simple, but I just dont see the issue with it. Sure, we can say well, where is the risk when True North makes a ton of cash, they didnt need the subsidy. But who's to say 20 years from now, they wouldnt need it? The company spent a massive amount of money which indirectly invested in the community. If they wanted the government to put a little skin in the game, I have no issue with it. The $4 million gets returned several times over.
None of this is right. None of it. You're just making this up as you go along. Firstly, there already was a hockey team here, so the marginal benefit rolls up to the ownership. Secondly, that investment in the hockey team went directly into the NHL and was then spread throughout the ownership, none of whom make their homes here.

And if the team needs subsidy in twenty years, then it's a drain on the economy, not the other way around. That means there's next to no benefit at all except for the (already existent) incomes from the staff who actually live here. And hey, there's some rationale. On your advice, we should be subsidizing businesses everywhere in case they need it one day.

You have no no idea what you're talking about. Go read my post from earlier about the economic benefits of professional sports. There is almost none, proven over and over again by many economists much smarter than me, and a hell of a lot smarter than you. Money already exists in an economy. Diverting it into high margin goods like professional sports is detrimental to an economy because the exceptionally wealthy ownership those benefits roll up to - one of who doesn't even live here - don't spend their money like small and medium size businesses do. It generally goes into what are known as aggregate 'savings' because you can only spend so much money.

You analogy is completely wrong. What you meant to say was if the Manitoba tax payer gave you a $100 each year and you're a billionaire who lives in Toronto getting $200 every year, that's a net loss of $300 from the economy every year. That $4MM doesn't pay for itself at all. That's because it's the taxation that should be going into the system from entertainment taxes, but instead it's rebated back out.

At this point I'm beginning to appreciate that your intentions are probably noble, you just have no idea how economies work...
     
     
  #5003  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 6:08 PM
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Originally Posted by esquire View Post
^ On that note, when I read Simplicity's posts, I can't help but to visualize the words coming out of Kevin O'Leary's mouth... he is like the Winnipeg version of him

Ha! Kevin O'Leary is a smart guy so I can appreciate that, but he's not nearly the guy he portrays on television. He's far less hardcore.
     
     
  #5004  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 9:16 PM
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Busted Mistecture.

Thats the second time that building has been 'inspirational'...Cibinel had a very similar thing on their web site too.
Where was the comparison picture from? I've been told it was too similar to a building in Japan. Curious to know if that was true and what the Cibinel one was like...
     
     
  #5005  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 9:44 PM
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I mostly agree with Simplicity's point of view on subisidizing the Chipman family, but I think some context is needed

1) While pro-sports are a "for profit" business, it's borderline philanphropic venture in many markets. Teams that lose money sell for 100's of millions of dollars because the emotional investment a community has in its team. Lately, values on pro-sports franchises has been sky-high, but the underlying profits they generate NEVER support the sale price. It's just such an exclusive club that some are willing to pay anything to join (see Steve Balmer buying the Clippers)

2) 4mm annual subsidy is a LARGE number, but a small percentage of the operating cost of an NHL team. Actually, it's a rounding error. A much larger point of concern would be the USD exchange rate. Forbes estimates the annual cost of running an NHL team is 95-100mm. It pegged the Jets EBITDA 2013/2014 @ 3mm. This does not count debt service - and I know a large portion of the 170mm purchase price was financed. This year, the Canadian dollar is down 10% which has a 6mm impact on the Jets 60mm USD payroll.

3) Massively profitable is an overstatement. Forbes estimates Jets made 10mm year one, 6mm year 2, and 3mm year three. Once the euphoria of the opening season ended, and merchandise sales slowed down, the Jets have become (like most pro-teams outside the NFL) an operation that will make +/- 5mm per year. Not a great return on a 170mm investment. Actualy, a Canada Savings bond could net you bigger gains

4) For the above stated reasons, and the 170mm price that was paid for the team, it's no wonder the ownership group needed backroom deals to ensure viabillity (such as gaming revenue, perhaps land with anchor tenants, etc ...) Do I agree with it? Not really. But again, I think pro-sports teams in all cities get subsidies in one way or another. It's the "price to play". The Oilers are getting a 600mm new arena mostly funded by taxpayers (compared to our 130mm MTS centre). Nearly all arenas, baseball parks, and football stadiums have been paid for by the tax payer. Nearly all have cost 3x the price of the MTS Centre.

5) Capital Gains - Forbes also estimates the Jets are now worth 350mm. I wonder if anyone else in Winnipeg would pay that much to buy the team. If the team was sold and relocated, then the NHL would grab nearly 50% of the sale price as a "relocation fee". When True North bought Atlanta for 170mm, only 100mm went to the Atlanta ownership group and 70mm was a "relocation fee" distributed amongst the other 29 owners.

At the end of the day, the cost of having a pro-sports team is very difficult to measure. I tend to agree with Simplicity and other economists that it truly is a zero sum game. However, what is immeasurable is the "self-esteem" of a city. Maybe you can't put a price tag on the collective pride (most of us) feel in being a "major league" city. Will it keep youth in Winnipeg? I don't know. Will it prevent people from moving away? I don't know. Is Winnipeg more "hip" for having an NHL team? Probably. Does being hip matter? I don't know.

I do know this. The Jets average over 250,000 viewers per broadcast. That's 25% of Manitobans who care. That's 250,000 people entertained by this hockey team 82 nights per year. I doubt anything else brings us closer together as Manitobans. Maybe that in itself is worth 4mm per year.
     
     
  #5006  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by jimsabo21 View Post
I mostly agree with Simplicity's point of view on subisidizing the Chipman family, but I think some context is needed

1) While pro-sports are a "for profit" business, it's borderline philanphropic venture in many markets. Teams that lose money sell for 100's of millions of dollars because the emotional investment a community has in its team. Lately, values on pro-sports franchises has been sky-high, but the underlying profits they generate NEVER support the sale price. It's just such an exclusive club that some are willing to pay anything to join (see Steve Balmer buying the Clippers)

2) 4mm annual subsidy is a LARGE number, but a small percentage of the operating cost of an NHL team. Actually, it's a rounding error. A much larger point of concern would be the USD exchange rate. Forbes estimates the annual cost of running an NHL team is 95-100mm. It pegged the Jets EBITDA 2013/2014 @ 3mm. This does not count debt service - and I know a large portion of the 170mm purchase price was financed. This year, the Canadian dollar is down 10% which has a 6mm impact on the Jets 60mm USD payroll.

3) Massively profitable is an overstatement. Forbes estimates Jets made 10mm year one, 6mm year 2, and 3mm year three. Once the euphoria of the opening season ended, and merchandise sales slowed down, the Jets have become (like most pro-teams outside the NFL) an operation that will make +/- 5mm per year. Not a great return on a 170mm investment. Actualy, a Canada Savings bond could net you bigger gains

4) For the above stated reasons, and the 170mm price that was paid for the team, it's no wonder the ownership group needed backroom deals to ensure viabillity (such as gaming revenue, perhaps land with anchor tenants, etc ...) Do I agree with it? Not really. But again, I think pro-sports teams in all cities get subsidies in one way or another. It's the "price to play". The Oilers are getting a 600mm new arena mostly funded by taxpayers (compared to our 130mm MTS centre). Nearly all arenas, baseball parks, and football stadiums have been paid for by the tax payer. Nearly all have cost 3x the price of the MTS Centre.

5) Capital Gains - Forbes also estimates the Jets are now worth 350mm. I wonder if anyone else in Winnipeg would pay that much to buy the team. If the team was sold and relocated, then the NHL would grab nearly 50% of the sale price as a "relocation fee". When True North bought Atlanta for 170mm, only 100mm went to the Atlanta ownership group and 70mm was a "relocation fee" distributed amongst the other 29 owners.

At the end of the day, the cost of having a pro-sports team is very difficult to measure. I tend to agree with Simplicity and other economists that it truly is a zero sum game. However, what is immeasurable is the "self-esteem" of a city. Maybe you can't put a price tag on the collective pride (most of us) feel in being a "major league" city. Will it keep youth in Winnipeg? I don't know. Will it prevent people from moving away? I don't know. Is Winnipeg more "hip" for having an NHL team? Probably. Does being hip matter? I don't know.

I do know this. The Jets average over 250,000 viewers per broadcast. That's 25% of Manitobans who care. That's 250,000 people entertained by this hockey team 82 nights per year. I doubt anything else brings us closer together as Manitobans. Maybe that in itself is worth 4mm per year.
This is a very well thought out post. Thanks for contributing something that's relevant to the discussion.

A couple things I'll point out. The Jets annual subsidies run closer to $12.5MM on an annual basis. The $4MM is just the gaming revenue portion of that total figure, so everything has to be looked upon with that in mind. Your figures, while correct on the income statement side of things, don't account for either the NHL's television revenues or revenue sharing that redistributes things like playoff revenues and other revenues to the league. Those will likely roll up to True North as opposed to the Jets.

My point was never that the team is a valueless proposition in light of everything to be considered. My point was only ever that the idea the Chipman family was benevolently supplying the city with hockey simply isn't true. Given increased league-wide revenues, sharing of same, and larger and larger television contracts, the Jets - like most professional sports franchises - will be middling operationally while at the same time big overall winners. That's the way that sports has evolved. So your analysis looks pretty tight - and it is - it's just missing a few elements. As it were, those elements are what make professional sports so valuable today.

Once television is accounted for, Ballmer easily sees value from his $2B purchase of the Clippers. In the same market, the Dodgers regional television deal is worth $2B and that completely disregards their national and playoff deals...
     
     
  #5007  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 10:11 PM
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Christ, how many years is that $2B over for the Dodgers? That's lunacy.

Quick wikipedia search shows a 25 year contract for $8.35B. That's $334M per season. Per season!!! For Dodger baseball at that.
     
     
  #5008  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 10:31 PM
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Originally Posted by bomberjet View Post
Christ, how many years is that $2B over for the Dodgers? That's lunacy.

Quick wikipedia search shows a 25 year contract for $8.35B. That's $334M per season. Per season!!! For Dodger baseball at that.
Sorry, let me clarify in light of something I had completely forgotten. Originally, Fox had bid $2B for the broadcast rights during the Frank McCourt days. That would have guaranteed $100MM annually to the Dodgers annually, so you'll have to do the math 'cause I'm lazy. But MLB killed the deal. Mostly because McCourt was bankrupt and using the deal to leverage cash out to support himself while baseball was trying to remove him as an owner. If the TV deal was already signed and leveraged out, that'd leave very little value in the team for the new ownership. ANYway, after paying $2.3B for the team, Guggenheim Partners went on to sign a deal with Time Warner that would create a television network called Sportsnet LA using the number you've quoted above until 2038.

But yeah, the money is sports is in the TV deals now. I think Rogers paid $5.2B over 12 years for Canadian NHL rights which just made every Canadian owner very wealthy. It also gives them them all the playoffs and Stanley Cup games...
     
     
  #5009  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 10:43 PM
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Yeah the NHL deal is pretty sweet. $520M per season. Not sure exactly how that all works. But IIRC visiting teams also get a slice of the revenue, as they are providing a service basically. Same goes for Jets when they're visiting elsewhere. Does that sounds legit, or am I imagining that?

Either way, huge dollars. I imagine NFL is even more ridiculous.
     
     
  #5010  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 12:01 AM
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Where was the comparison picture from? I've been told it was too similar to a building in Japan. Curious to know if that was true and what the Cibinel one was like...
Bottom one is the Japanese bank.

Cibinel one looked the same.
     
     
  #5011  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 12:02 AM
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Heard today the CMHR had 30,000 visitors in November. 110,000 since opening in September.
     
     
  #5012  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 1:15 AM
Simplicity Simplicity is offline
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Originally Posted by bomberjet View Post
Yeah the NHL deal is pretty sweet. $520M per season. Not sure exactly how that all works. But IIRC visiting teams also get a slice of the revenue, as they are providing a service basically. Same goes for Jets when they're visiting elsewhere. Does that sounds legit, or am I imagining that?

Either way, huge dollars. I imagine NFL is even more ridiculous.
I actually don't have a clue. It would seem reasonable, though.
     
     
  #5013  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 1:21 AM
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Heard today the CMHR had 30,000 visitors in November. 110,000 since opening in September.
Serious question, TV, given that MAW wrote the article for the paper under which you also file, but why is it that the CMHR won't separate out voluntary museum visits from guests attending events? If we're trying to gauge existing interest and at the same time assess the future, aren't those details relevant?

Especially in light of that poll the Free Press published the other day. I have to say, I'd have thought the Free Press sentiment up 'til now would have been a lot rosier...
     
     
  #5014  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 5:09 AM
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You are asking why they don't throw gasoline on the fire of people looking for any evidence to scream I told you so?

My guess is they keep close records....i doubt the War museum publishes breakdowns in their numbers.
     
     
  #5015  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 2:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Simplicity View Post
Ha! Kevin O'Leary is a smart guy so I can appreciate that, but he's not nearly the guy he portrays on television. He's far less hardcore.
Id Say the same thing
Tvs a brand power thing


On that note
How about we have a forum meet and then people can have a relaxed time sometime soon?
     
     
  #5016  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 2:11 PM
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Heard today the CMHR had 30,000 visitors in November. 110,000 since opening in September.
That number also includes the bistro and the rental hall atendance
     
     
  #5017  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 2:37 PM
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AND visits to their website.
     
     
  #5018  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 3:42 PM
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AND visits to their website.
Each mention of the CMHR in this thread is considered a visit.
     
     
  #5019  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 3:52 PM
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So everyone's in a tizzy because people are going to the CMHR? Regardless of what use or function. Are they actually trying to bolster the numbers, or is everyone just upset about something?
     
     
  #5020  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 3:54 PM
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It is also important on if people attending events at the CMHR are being restricted to only visit that event or are allowed to check out different galleries. If those visitors are being escorted to a room where their entire visit occurs before they leave the building that is very different.
     
     
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