YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Cage

I view VS pullout of YVR As neutral to good news story. I would rather have two strong stable competitors than 3 competitors with one being an irrational player and pulling the other two airlines into break even.

And again agreed in the sense it really isn't that bad of news hence my " ". Just in the sense of losing a carrier. There is a huge YVR-LHR market and VS certainly hasn't had trouble filling their aircraft during their summer seasonal services. YVR-LHR will continue to be a very strong O&D market and a fantastic connecting hub for BA pax. Will wait and see if BA, or even AC, makes a move or not

[Canadian74]

Originally Posted by Cage

The problem with doing a MEL flight is that is it's not very complementary to SYD. Here let me explain.

To do MEL and SYD would require 788 service. Which in AC seating terms means about 500 seat, a significant increase from the current 279 seats and the recently introduced 77w services at 350 seats. A dual 788 operation require 4 aircraft for daily to both MEL and SYD. This would leave SYD services short for seats and the MEL services with too many seats.

How about they continue operating the 777 to SYD daily and launch MEL with 3-4 weekly 788/789? That still wouldn't work?

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Canadian74

How about they continue operating the 777 to SYD daily and launch MEL with 3-4 weekly 788/789? That still wouldn't work?

77L with 270 seats to SYD on daily basis plus 4weekly 788 service with 250 seats has a good possibility during the peak seasons.

However any North America service n/s to MEL, I would wait and see the early results of UA's 789 services LAX-MEL.

[deasine]

Originally Posted by Cage

However any North America service n/s to MEL, I would wait and see the early results of UA's 789 services LAX-MEL.

Definitely true. And even with a successful LAX-MEL, AC would need to air on the side of caution. UA's LAX-MEL at the end of the day can cover a much larger geography than YVRs in terms of transfer passengers.

[Johnny Aussie]

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6184505

Possibly an indication the DL SEA hub not meeting expectations. Obviously on this route at least.

Pulling effective 1 Oct and set to resume next March at the moment. With such short notice that route must be just hemmorhaging.

Also, noticed quite a few frequency reductions on most SEA-Asia routes for the winter. Normal seasonal reductions occur on a lot of carriers though.

The stats being pumped out by SEA really do indicate all these new flights cannot be anywhere near full.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6184505

Possibly an indication the DL SEA hub not meeting expectations. Obviously on this route at least.

Pulling effective 1 Oct and set to resume next March at the moment. With such short notice that route must be just hemmorhaging.

Also, noticed quite a few frequency reductions on most SEA-Asia routes for the winter. Normal seasonal reductions occur on a lot of carriers though.

The stats being pumped out by SEA really do indicate all these new flights cannot be anywhere near full.

More power to YVR !!!!!

[YVR Bruce]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Will wait and see if BA, or even AC, makes a move or not

Not everyone flying VS / BA /AC on the YVR-LHR run is heading to London. Hopefully AC Rouge will bid for some of that VS traffic by putting on 3/wk to EDI + 3/wk to CDG

I believe AC / Rouge are already cycling crews thru there, so ground costs of such services should be OK

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by YVR Bruce

Not everyone flying VS / BA /AC on the YVR-LHR run is heading to London. Hopefully AC Rouge will bid for some of that VS traffic by putting on 3/wk to EDI + 3/wk to CDG

I believe AC / Rouge are already cycling crews thru there, so ground costs of such services should be OK

You are correct. But with VS gone, BA could restore its 6th weekly and perhaps go double daily. Huge O&D market plus BA's enormous hub makes it attractive.

3 per week to EDI would be too much for YVR... But CDG? hmmmm.

Also got word that Icelandair is not pulling out of YVR. That info came direct from North America marketing. I'd be surprised if they wouldn't know.... but you never know... anyway.

[YVR Bruce]

As much as colourful tails at YVR create satisfaction for spotting, at the end of the day this is a transportation facility driven by the people who pay the airfares. I travel regularly to Europe: last week to/from FRA and this coming Tues CDG via YYZ. Next, YVR-AMS in 4 weeks. AC and Star are most relevant to the travel spending of people at my company.

The AC:LH relationship appears to be strained, no doubt due to the drain of traffic to EK / EY / TK. Lack of opportunity to/at FRA/MUC -particularly for YVR - has only induced AC’s further interest in IST. Which of course bypasses Germany and further aggravates the Star problem.

For Vancouver, this translates into a need for AC to seek better ways to cover Europe. For my travel needs, I hope AC pushes Rouge into places like CDG and perhaps AMS. OK, I was optimistic about EDI – but even they could see 1/wk given YYZ flight crews are already sitting at hotels there (a major cost issue for sporadic ops).

The best AC YVR Euro-strategy in my mind would be for them to have as many direct Rouge services as practical, and for the rest - use CPH alongside FRA; AC already has daily CPH service from YYZ, so YVR could turn there without big extra costs. SAS would love the feed into their network, and the CPH terminal is much easier to use than FRA

[Johnny Aussie]

^ yup.

As I have stated many times, there are very few opportunities left for YVR-Europe, especially establishing new year-round services. Even KLM reduces flights to 5 weekly during the winter. Summertime sees about 70 weekly flights while in winter that reduces to 27 only.

Rouge will probably start up some seasonal routes to Europe from YVR but don't expect too much in the way of new markets if any. Sure EDI or GLA once a week, maybe MAN a couple per week, CDG a few times a week. Rouge will depend almost entirely on O&D. The UK, Germany, France and the Netherlands are Western Canada's biggest markets. Outside of that, very few countries generate enough O&D to make any new market viable. Transat tried Spain and Italy and those lasted not more than two seasons. Although trying to fill 350 seat planes would have been a challenge. Rouge's 280-seater 763s may be more right-sized. If rouge goes after Air Transat in YVR watch for MAN, CDG, GLA (maybe EDI).

Perhaps get a jump on Westjet but most likely those will be out of YYC which is an even significantly smaller O&D market. Perhaps Westjet's aim is to wipe TS out of Alberta altogether.

In any event I predict MAN, GLA, CDG and NGO as other new routes by rouge within the next couple of years, on top of the first overseas route of KIX already announced.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by YVR Bruce

As much as colourful tails at YVR create satisfaction for spotting, at the end of the day this is a transportation facility driven by the people who pay the airfares. I travel regularly to Europe: last week to/from FRA and this coming Tues CDG via YYZ. Next, YVR-AMS in 4 weeks. AC and Star are most relevant to the travel spending of people at my company.

The AC:LH relationship appears to be strained, no doubt due to the drain of traffic to EK / EY / TK. Lack of opportunity to/at FRA/MUC -particularly for YVR - has only induced AC’s further interest in IST. Which of course bypasses Germany and further aggravates the Star problem.

For Vancouver, this translates into a need for AC to seek better ways to cover Europe. For my travel needs, I hope AC pushes Rouge into places like CDG and perhaps AMS. OK, I was optimistic about EDI – but even they could see 1/wk given YYZ flight crews are already sitting at hotels there (a major cost issue for sporadic ops).

The best AC YVR Euro-strategy in my mind would be for them to have as many direct Rouge services as practical, and for the rest - use CPH alongside FRA; AC already has daily CPH service from YYZ, so YVR could turn there without big extra costs. SAS would love the feed into their network, and the CPH terminal is much easier to use than FRA

Regarding AC from YVR to Europe, in this case CDG (which will never see year-round service from YVR),
what about Paris ORY (Orly)? Orly connects to a lot of destinations within France, but in particular, to the Mediterranean - many summer holiday destinations, which seems the main summer draw to France.
Forget CDG. Forget year-round to Paris. It'll never happen, I'm sure.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

^ yup.

As I have stated many times, there are very few opportunities left for YVR-Europe, especially establishing new year-round services. Even KLM reduces flights to 5 weekly during the winter. Summertime sees about 70 weekly flights while in winter that reduces to 27 only.

Rouge will probably start up some seasonal routes to Europe from YVR but don't expect too much in the way of new markets if any. Sure EDI or GLA once a week, maybe MAN a couple per week, CDG a few times a week. Rouge will depend almost entirely on O&D. The UK, Germany, France and the Netherlands are Western Canada's biggest markets. Outside of that, very few countries generate enough O&D to make any new market viable. Transat tried Spain and Italy and those lasted not more than two seasons. Although trying to fill 350 seat planes would have been a challenge. Rouge's 280-seater 763s may be more right-sized. If rouge goes after Air Transat in YVR watch for MAN, CDG, GLA (maybe EDI).

Perhaps get a jump on Westjet but most likely those will be out of YYC which is an even significantly smaller O&D market. Perhaps Westjet's aim is to wipe TS out of Alberta altogether.

In any event I predict MAN, GLA, CDG and NGO as other new routes by rouge within the next couple of years, on top of the first overseas route of KIX already announced.

I think Rogue has one major advantage of Transat that may make some of these routes much more viable. Transat does not interline with anyone. The Rogue flights have Air Canada codes and interline with other airlines at both ends. That extra feel may be just enough to turn a slightly unprofitable route into one that Is profitable.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

I think Rogue has one major advantage of Transat that may make some of these routes much more viable. Transat does not interline with anyone. The Rogue flights have Air Canada codes and interline with other airlines at both ends. That extra feel may be just enough to turn a slightly unprofitable route into one that Is profitable.

Rouge is the most uincomfortable airline I have been on in years, enough so that I'll forgo Aeroplan points just to avoid being stuck on one of their 319s.

[Cage]

WRT AC rouge services to Europe from YVR, I can see the following coming true:

CDG 3-4 times per week summer service. Would require heavy involvement (market maker) with tour operator to advertise the service. AC has done YVR-CDG in the past with mixed results. Year one summer seasonal service was okay for load and profit, but year two service stunk once the advertising died down and than market for once in lifetime Parisian holiday dried up.

AMS 3-4 times per week. If AC wanted to pick a fight with KLM, using rouge as weapon of yield destruction. They could also do YYC-AMS 2-3 times per week to put max pressure on KLM. The route would be only marginally profitable but getting KlM group to retreat would be Longterm gain.

I could see 2-3 times per week service YVR-LGW to test out how AC mainline and rouge can work together and not cannibalize yields. The only problem is the 77Hd is a compromise between rouge and international mainline.

DUS worked in the past for AC, but this was before KLM got big into YVR market.

MAN/GLA/EDI Could work on less than 4 times weekly basis, like CDG would also require a lot of advertising and tour operator support. These services would be a good way to fend off WS and force retreat by Group TransAt.

For winter service I could see MBJ and CUN work out.

One market I don't see working out for rouge is YYZ-HNL. This one season wonder will put extra focus back onto YVR Hawaii services.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Cage

....
One market I don't see working out for rouge is YYZ-HNL. This one season wonder will put extra focus back onto YVR Hawaii services.

I am surprised you say that. Air Canada has operated that flight for decades.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by casper

I am surprised you say that. Air Canada has operated that flight for decades.

AC has operated YVR-HNL for decades, but new route is YYZ-HNL nonstop on AC rouge. The YYZ-HNL route won't work because of costs. HNL is much higher cost than comparable Caribbean or Mexican destinations. The market AC rouge is hoping to tap is the people who always wanted to try Hawaii just cause its someplace new. This crowd might get discouraged once the see cost differences at the destination, no amount of discounting the flight portion can compensate for destination costs.

In the end the discontinuance of YYZ-HNL would be a pick up for YVR as connection traffic is 2x the number of pax.

[craneSpotter]

Hmmm... bums in seats. Now that Air India is part of the Star Alliance...to be expected.

Air India Opens Reservation for Air Canada Code share Service from Oct 2014

Air India on 23SEP14 has loaded planned code share routes with Air Canada into the GDS, as partnership with Air Canada commences on 02OCT14.

The following is Air India’s planned code share routes operated by Air Canada, which reservation is now open.

Hong Kong – Vancouver
London Heathrow – Calgary
London Heathrow – Edmonton
London Heathrow – Halifax
London Heathrow – St. John’s NFLD
London Heathrow – Toronto
London Heathrow – Vancouver
Paris CDG – Montreal
Paris CDG – Toronto
Shanghai Pu Dong – Vancouver


Code shared flights operated by Air India reported yesterday: Air Canada / Air India Plans Codeshare Partnership from Oct 2014 - http://airlineroute.net/2014/09/22/acai-codeshare-oct14/

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Cage

AC has operated YVR-HNL for decades, but new route is YYZ-HNL nonstop on AC rouge. The YYZ-HNL route won't work because of costs. HNL is much higher cost than comparable Caribbean or Mexican destinations. The market AC rouge is hoping to tap is the people who always wanted to try Hawaii just cause its someplace new. This crowd might get discouraged once the see cost differences at the destination, no amount of discounting the flight portion can compensate for destination costs.

In the end the discontinuance of YYZ-HNL would be a pick up for YVR as connection traffic is 2x the number of pax.

2x the number of pax for YVR to HNL? Wheeeeeeew!!!
I'm not arguing, but that seems incredible! Hope you're right; that's a jackpot for YVR on that run, anyway.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

2x the number of pax for YVR to HNL? Wheeeeeeew!!!
I'm not arguing, but that seems incredible! Hope you're right; that's a jackpot for YVR on that run, anyway.

I think your slightly miss reading the situation.

For clarity, if 100 pax do YYZ-YVR-HNL then YVR gets to count both the arrival and the departure for 200 pax. This does not mean that pax cout on YVR-HNL will double.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Cage

I think your slightly miss reading the situation.

For clarity, if 100 pax do YYZ-YVR-HNL then YVR gets to count both the arrival and the departure for 200 pax. This does not mean that pax cout on YVR-HNL will double.

That makes a lot more sense.Thanks